Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[kranz]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Special forces operators doing their job? Or a false flag?

Ukrainian saboteurs wearing Russian uniforms trained in Poland for US money.
Confirmed.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Organised crime in Russia is not -that- bad anymore though I find it somewhat unclear as to what kind of armed force they were using

Well, to be fair it wouldn't be too difficult to jam police radios, and smoke grenades aren't that hard to come by. We'll see what happens.

p.s. - it appears that modern sub discussions are not very active atm , anyplace in the anglo sphere where I could find those?

You can blame the desert of subsims at the moment, and modern based subsims have rarely been as popular as WWII based ones.
In regards to other places, none that I know of, other chaps on here might know some.

p.p.s - it shows that there are some missing pages in this discussion (pages 97 98 99 are not availiable)

Yeah, that's a bug in the forum software, some threads have up to fifty odd extra pages that don't exist. Only happens on threads that have lots of pages. Bit wierd.

[Jimbuna]

The current ceasefire appears to be holding but the EU are intent on imposing more sanctions unless Russia withdraws the troops they deny exist in the eastern part of Ukraine.

I believe Putin to be guilty but is it wise to rub his nose in it?...he has a habit of throwing caution to the wind and using his trump card.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29093531

[Oberon]

Aye, would be a bit daft to keep on with the sanctions, especially since, as ikalugin has pointed out, you can't be 100% certain that those are Russian forces in East Ukraine and not Russian supplied equipment used by eastern Ukrainians. A point sure to be raised by Moscow.

[kranz]

Originally Posted by Oberon

would be a bit daft to keep on with the sanctions

Originally Posted by Oberon

and not Russian supplied equipment used by eastern Ukrainians.

dat logic.

afaik international regulations forbid selling weapons to countries engaged in war conflicts. I can't really believe that all the equipment used by the pro-russian terrorists is the 'ex-ukrainian' gear captured after the Revolution. And to be it doesn't really matter if this is russian gear operated by russians or russian gear operated by the terrorists. One of the leaders of the terrorists already declared that they wouldn't stop unless their two so-called 'republics' were given independence or incorporated to russia. Can't see that happening while not being supported by russia. (unless they have their own factories etc).
Besides you keep forgetting that Russia imposed counter-sanctions which might not have been noticed yet in your sleepy and blissful Suffolk or Tyne and Wear.

[ikalugin]

And if there are Russian troops in Ukraine, how would EU assertain that they have left?

Considering that and my previous point (that sanctions would not outweight critical Russian national interests in Ukraine) the new sanctions have no meaning within the current Ukranian crisis. Thus one has to look for their reasons elsewhere.

[Jimbuna]

Steve....How do I answer that

[Skybird]

Currently, people are not dying, or less people are dying. Taken for itself, that is good, compared to a war being fought.

But politically the acceptance of that cease-fire is a de facto defeat for Poroshenko, and I assume he and his party will pay the price for that in the upcoming elections. It seems his army was no longer capable to continue the fight currently with any realistic chances. Seen that way it may speak for him that he does not needlessly sacrifice his soldiers just to keep up his ego and political fate. On the other hand, he is one of those oligarchs, and one should never forget that, not for one moment.

The undisputed winner is Putin so far. He took a gamble, he surprised and bluffed the west and caught him on the wrong foot - and he will get away with it. He has gotten all his objective of which i would assume he had them: the Crimean is Russian, the Ukraine de facto is split, the Eastern areas still are not Russian-owned so mst not be paid for and economically maintained by Russia, but Kiev, a threat to always advance forther along the coast is a big stick for any upcomign negotiations, the Russian influnce in Kiev'S internal politics is secured because in case of autonomy for the Eastern provinces this could onkly mean a federalist structure of the ukraine. A NATO membership is extremely unlikely, so is an EU membership. Game, set and match Putin, if the situation does not dramatically change.

The fiscal sanctions the Russian central bank currently tries to compensate for by using the same methods that the Fed and the ECB are using: they print money. It will not do Russia worse than what it does America or the EU, but it will make Russia needing to suffer the same consequences from that fiscal lunacy - I mean policy, like America and Europe.

Another winner there is in the background: China.

If the cease fir eholds and leads to negotiations, Russia most likely will get what it wants: an unadmitted de facto acceptance of the status quo on the ground.

There is a chance for two other scenarios: Russia just trying on to endlessly poke Ukraine's eyes and trying to unsettle the state without and end in time, just to destabilize it and by that securing Russian influence. And a furthe rRussian advance in a bit for grabbing more Ukrainian territory. I see both scenarios currently as less likely than the scenairo I just explained before. Becasue the scenario I explained before maximises Russian benefits and gains while reducing their costs. It's the best possible outcome for Russia. The other two scenarios cost them more and give them less.

Question is whether Putin ticks by this logic, or not.

Some say there is one good thing for the West, that is that the whole issue served as a wake-up call for NATO. But so far the reactions only were symbolic, and the decisions announced lack substance that would really make a difference. The financial situation in he West is just one reason for that.

[ikalugin]

Well if Poroshenko accepts the Russian terms, then we would try to play the separatists to agree to a ceasefire. The issue here is that an illusion exists in the West of Putin's complete control over the separatists, which is not quite the case.

Ie even though there is a degree of control (funding, supplies wise, ect) they are still doing their own thing. So if the terms are not acceptable (such as Putin requesting a delay in referendum) they would refuse.

And while our leadership may obtain it's original objectives by leaving the status quo, this may not be the case with the Russian population and the local people (ie separatists), who would ask for at least the "big Novorussia" or better still - control of the entire Ukraine. Morever out leadership may feel that the original terms (federalisation ect) may be inadequate and thus ask for more.

So even though ceasefire exists (allowing both parties to arm and prepare) the war is not over yet and may even turn into a "frozen conflict".

P.s. The true winner of course is the PRC. Did very little, secured their northern border by gaining a BFF, got a nice high tech export market, weakened the EU.

[Flamebatter90]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Steve....How do I answer that

Positively of course. When in doubt, say yes.

[Oberon]

I think putting more sanctions on Putin is going to be as affective as throwing packing material at a ferret:

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

So even though ceasefire exists (allowing both parties to arm and prepare) the war is not over yet and may even turn into a "frozen conflict".

The whole concept of turning the Ukraine into a federalist nation so that the Russian provinces can notoriously make sure there is unrest an dinstability and so weakening Kiev, is a "frozen conflict". A peaceful, stabile, harmonic Ukraine is not in the Kremlins interest. the more stable the Ukraine is, the less influence the Kremlin has.

The separatists may not follow each and everey command, but they play Putins ball, no doubt on that. They also depend on Russian military aid and weapons - without that, the ukrainian army wad close to pushing them out of Donetsk and Luhansk. The wind of war changed not before the Russians intervened more massively. The separatists repeatedly adapted their choices of words and demands according to what the Kremlin announced just hours before. There is no talk of independence and joining Russia currently, but a demand for autonomy. Which has a federalist constitution for the ukraine as a precondition.

Again, the trick for Moscow is to keep Kiev off balance and keeping an influence in its inner politics, with the eastern region being the tool for that - while not needing to pay for these Eastern provinces, but leave the bill to Kiev and the EU. Thus Moscow demanded today that the EU should not so much spend time to think about new sanctions, but how to invest in the East and help the reconstruction.

There is a nice Gambit possible for the West now, but that would only be played by a cold-hearted bastard like me, and not by our sensible, wellmeaning political elites of philantropists. The West could decide to completely boycott any economic aid and financial assistance for the ukraine. Kiev would collapse and would be incapable to take care of the destroyed infrastructure. That leaves Moscow with just two choices: either it does not care and risks that the people in the separatists' areas turn away from Russia in great dissappointment when they see their situation not improving while having spend monmths with poutting their hopes into mother Russia's help, and then there would be a risk that they voluntarily join Kiew again, and the game is lost for Moscow. Or Moscow decides to accept the poisoned gambit pawn and starts to pay for the Eastern provinces - then it gets financially injured and loses more "blood" (=money) in an effort to rebuild the infrastructure and to secure the supplying of both the areas of Donbass and Luhansk - and the Crimean. Financially, that would be costly.

Moscow would still control these places then - but it would need to pay for it, and a high price it would be, additionally to the sanctions.

[Aktungbby]

SKYBIRD: Moscow would still control these places then - but it would need to pay for it, and a high price it would be, additionally to the sanctions.

Precisely! Like the proverbial monkey's fist, Putin is trying to reconstruct the Soviet past and can't afford the rubles to do it-The Crimea, for example, costs more to maintain than it earns. The first rule of any conflict of acquisition is: it must pay for itself...and that ain't happenin'. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/the-high-price-of-crimea/497763.html The old Russian bear ain't fattened up enough to hibernate this winter..The true cost of Putin's land grab: "the first legislative measures for integrating Crimea into the Russian system will cost the state budget almost $1.5 billion alone. In addition, plans call for granting Crimea at least 80 billion rubles ($2.2 billion) in annual subsidies. That figures includes payments to offset the peninsula's budget deficit as well as social benefits for Crimean residents. What's more, that figure could rise to as much as 150 billion rubles ($4.5 billion) in the near future. Russia might also have to spend another $5 billion soon for construction and repairs to the peninsula's dilapidated infrastructure. In recent years, Crimea was only about 35 percent financially self-sufficient and depended on the rest of Ukraine for assistance, although Kiev never fully fulfilled its financial obligations to Crimea given the sad state of Ukraine's economy."

[Skybird]

To put your numbers into perspective: at the time of typing this:

48 Rubel = 1 Euro.

37 Rubel = 1 Dollar

[Bilge_Rat]

another video showing Russian troops near the Lugansk pocket south of Donetsk, sept. 3rd.

You can see T72B3 tanks, Strela 10 SP SAMs, 6-7 towed 2B16 NONA-K 120 mm mortars. The vehicles are all painted in the standard green used by the Russian Army.

These may be elements of the 33rd or 34th Russian Mountain Brigades.