Afghanistan deadline

Rockstar · 02-23-21, 06:21 PM

Deadline for troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is May 1st. Taliban threatens all out war if it doesn't happen. Personally I think the threat is just Taliban blowing smoke, we'll see come May I guess. Currently there around 10,000 NATO forces most notably Turk, German, Italian Dane as well as including 2,500 U.S. troops. Additionally there are also approximately 6,000 civilian contractors though not sure if they will be part of the withdrawal.

Skybird · 02-23-21, 07:33 PM

Tja tja... He that will not hear must feel.

Trapped in the Afghan maze. Telling so since 2006. They cna stay another twenty years, and they will not achieve anything lasting. Its like squeezing a rubber ball. The moment you let go your grip, it bounces back into its former form.

Without US air transport and air support, the German contingent is screwed, their battlefield air mobility is zero. Hard to believe that they still are there. Even in the army, realism has moved in, and hope has been given up. The only ones still blowing into the trumpet, are reality-disconnected politicians who cannot bear that the mission has been lost - lost since beginning on.

I hope the Americans pull out. Then it will be seen what the Europeans do. If they are as smart as they think in their capitols, they are already gone before the Americans move out. Recent comments by the German foreign ministerial casper however are discouraging. I dont think they have learned anything from the past 17 years or how long it has been. the German military leaders have, and their enthusiasm to stay is very muted. Troops, so I heard, do not tlak much anymor elike years ago: "we stay as long as the msisioin is not accomplished", "we will only leave when the country has been stabilised", "we cannot go because then the losses and sacrifices would have been in vein". Realism has defeated naive idealism. Finally. I waited very long for this sobering. But the politicians have not learned.

The current desastrous EU commission president Super-Uschi with all her glorious remarks on vaccinations and programs and green deal policies, was the former German defence minister. Just as a reminder. Food for thought, isn't it...

I cant see the German contingent being able to face indeed a full out war aiming at them directly, but this is what could be coming if the American support is no longer there. Could easily end in a total catstrophe. And I do not talk about a political one for the parties and governments at home, but a REAL one.

Platapus · 02-23-21, 07:55 PM

Do we know what our mission is in AF any more?

Skybird · 02-23-21, 08:17 PM

To bring light into a land of darkness, ehem...

I do not know however how to translate that into a military mission objective that, once acchieved, marks the criterion for "mission end" and "begin pullout." In other words, to my best knowledge neither a clear military definition of objectives nor a criterion when said mission is considered to be achieved and thus pullout begins, have ever been given. It has all been war on terror, and plenty of wishy-washy.

It has been a bit like jumping out of the plane with the plan of thinking in mid-air and falling about how to get hands on a parachute. Dynamic process orientation, flexible mission design, you know. You have to go with the times, how gotta be flexible and solution-oriented. Sexy new language and creative terminology usage are key. The logic behind this political trick: to know that one cannot impact on the ground as long as one has not gotten a parachute. Thats why the fall to the ground could last forever, in these smart minds' thinking at least. Well, I have my ear-wax ready, to save my eardrum.

P.S.
Reminds me of an anecdote a US historian recently told on German TV, in a docu on the Japanese "defence forces". Formally, Japan has no army, the constitution prohibits that. When being confronted on some question on Japanese participation in international military scenarios, theoretically or real, the Japanese diplomat said, that where there are Japanese defence forces present there cannot be a military conflict existing and so it is harmless to be there - where Japanese soldiers-that-are-no-soldiers are present, there cannot be a warzone, becasue else the Japanese would not be there. The presence of the Japanese proves it that ther eis no war, because Japasnese forces are no "forces". According to Japanese diplomatic logic. - No joke, but real!

Germany for years and years refused to call the war in Afghanistan actually a war.

Rockstar · 02-23-21, 09:50 PM

NATO troops, U.S. included, are scheduled to leave Afghanistan 1 May. The major and most obvious difference between them is the U.S maintains direct control of U.S forces. NATO is the command center for the others involved. There has already been talk of extending that deadline though.

The mission has always been about regional stability. Import also is to establish political influence by propping up a western friendly Afghan government too. Which is also helpful by making it harder for ChiComs to establish relations and its belt and road initiative in the region.

Skybird · 02-24-21, 05:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

NATO troops, U.S. included, are scheduled to leave Afghanistan 1 May. The major and most obvious difference between them is the U.S maintains direct control of U.S forces. NATO is the command center for the others involved. There has already been talk of extending that deadline though.

The mission has always been about regional stability. Import also is to establish political influence by propping up a western friendly Afghan government too. Which is also helpful by making it harder for ChiComs to establish relations and its belt and road initiative in the region.

That are politically defined objectives, no military ones, and that has always been the problem with that operation, from beginning on when the first Europeans unboarded there. For the Americans, it was about Osama, Al Kaida and all that.

A reminder: in tbe beginning, the Americans did not want the Europeans and rejected their offer to get involved. Not before their own task had kind of bogged down, they invited the Europeans into the swamp to share the mess.

Aktungbby · 02-23-21, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Platapus

Do we know what our mission is in AF any more?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

...The mission has always been about regional stability. Import also is to establish political influence by propping up a western friendly Afghan government too. Which is also helpful by making it harder for ChiComs to establish relations and its belt and road initiative in the region.

One wonders if the ChiComs, having observed the Russian and motor out across the bridge, and the DamnedYankees make a muck of the Middle East generally, incl. Iran Iraq and Syria, & Yemen would even care to try their greedy hand

..."two outta three" having been bad. Our stabilizing skill was gone way back in 'Nam!

Onkel Neal · 02-25-21, 10:02 PM

Ugh, do you think we will ever get out of that mess?

Skybird · 02-26-21, 02:54 AM

We will get out the day our politicians turned realistic. As long as the illusion persists to turn the country into a western model or religious backwardly fanatics could be "reformed", no.

Their war index still is around 6. Ours around 1, and below. Guess which civilization will have the longer breath. Overaged against overyouthed society. Good luck with that constellation.

Platapus · 02-26-21, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Ugh, do you think we will ever get out of that mess?

We did not learn from the British when they got stuck there
We did not learn from the Soviets when they got stuck there

We, the US, were different and we would show everyone how it is done.

Speaking as an old crusty vet, I don't see anything in AF that is worth a single additional American life.

Rockstar · 02-26-21, 10:32 PM

Well it was a U.N. mandate that got the ball rolling. Only one nation and coalition on earth had the reach, materiel, and power to project its will half way across the globe. What we've accomplished is something no other nation on earth could. The British tried the Soviet Union tried. This time we got it together and U.S. and NATO forces went in and with the use of their military were able to fulfill that mandate. Politically it remains unseen if the people of Afghanistan can grab hold and not let go of the opportunity we fought for and gave them. I'm under no illusion that it will somehow be perfect when we leave, it wont. It does however need to be relatively stable enough so that it will not fall back into the anarchy of the 80's and 90's and become a terrorist safe haven. The U.S., E.U. want a stable Afghanistan and Russia needs it.

I guess we'll find out May 1st

Moonlight · 02-27-21, 10:01 AM

^Poppycock, the Taliban will wrest control from the Afghan government once the foreign invaders have left, it might take them 5 years or more but once again it will become a terrorist safe haven.

Haven't the UN or the US learnt anything from all the other invasions they've been involved in, most of those people don't want to be little westerners, and its time that the US and any other foreign invader realised that. As for any civilian contractors left in Afghanistan, they'd better use there brains and get the hell out of there quick or they're going to have them splattered all over the streets.

Change the strategic decision makers thinking first to take the above into account before the next invasion occurs or the same screwup is going to happen again. All you've done is given the Taliban the ability and knowledge to kill and melt away into the night without any consequences. When the air cover and foreign troops are gone then they wont even be melting away, that's not the groundwork of a successful invasion old boy, its a bleeding ongoing disaster, and its of their own inept and limited thinking.

Super Powers 0-2 Afghan warlords.

Rockstar · 02-27-21, 11:08 AM

We better run while have the chance? You do realize U.S. and NATO forces have been there for close to 20 years now. If brains were going to be splattered in the streets chaos and Taliban everywhere. I think it would have happened long ago and we would have tucked tail an run like the Brits and Soviets did. The next invasion has already occurred there is no quagmire. The Taliban are no longer in power and we're still there and we're the ones setting the terms of our departure.

I know, its hard to see it any other way when the world is crashing in around you on a daily basis. But things change, and since the death of Mullah Omar even the Taliban have expressed an interest in a political solution. But like I said there is only so much the West can do. I don't expect a perfect Afghanistan when we leave, the rest is up to them to make it work.

Bilge_Rat · 06-21-21, 02:27 PM

I remember when the Taliban used to be the good guys......

August · 06-21-21, 04:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

I remember when the Taliban used to be the good guys......

Those aren't Taliban, they are Mujaheddin. Just because they wear similar hats doesn't make them all the same you know.

02-23-21, 06:21 PM	#1
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,841 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Afghanistan deadline Deadline for troop withdrawal from Afghanistan is May 1st. Taliban threatens all out war if it doesn't happen. Personally I think the threat is just Taliban blowing smoke, we'll see come May I guess. Currently there around 10,000 NATO forces most notably Turk, German, Italian Dane as well as including 2,500 U.S. troops. Additionally there are also approximately 6,000 civilian contractors though not sure if they will be part of the withdrawal. __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time.

02-23-21, 07:33 PM	#2
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,501 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Tja tja... He that will not hear must feel. Trapped in the Afghan maze. Telling so since 2006. They cna stay another twenty years, and they will not achieve anything lasting. Its like squeezing a rubber ball. The moment you let go your grip, it bounces back into its former form. Without US air transport and air support, the German contingent is screwed, their battlefield air mobility is zero. Hard to believe that they still are there. Even in the army, realism has moved in, and hope has been given up. The only ones still blowing into the trumpet, are reality-disconnected politicians who cannot bear that the mission has been lost - lost since beginning on. I hope the Americans pull out. Then it will be seen what the Europeans do. If they are as smart as they think in their capitols, they are already gone before the Americans move out. Recent comments by the German foreign ministerial casper however are discouraging. I dont think they have learned anything from the past 17 years or how long it has been. the German military leaders have, and their enthusiasm to stay is very muted. Troops, so I heard, do not tlak much anymor elike years ago: "we stay as long as the msisioin is not accomplished", "we will only leave when the country has been stabilised", "we cannot go because then the losses and sacrifices would have been in vein". Realism has defeated naive idealism. Finally. I waited very long for this sobering. But the politicians have not learned. The current desastrous EU commission president Super-Uschi with all her glorious remarks on vaccinations and programs and green deal policies, was the former German defence minister. Just as a reminder. Food for thought, isn't it... I cant see the German contingent being able to face indeed a full out war aiming at them directly, but this is what could be coming if the American support is no longer there. Could easily end in a total catstrophe. And I do not talk about a political one for the parties and governments at home, but a REAL one. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

02-23-21, 07:55 PM	#3
Platapus Fleet Admiral Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 18,951 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 0	Do we know what our mission is in AF any more? __________________ abusus non tollit usum - A right should NOT be withheld from people on the basis that some tend to abuse that right.

02-23-21, 08:17 PM	#4
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,501 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	To bring light into a land of darkness, ehem... I do not know however how to translate that into a military mission objective that, once acchieved, marks the criterion for "mission end" and "begin pullout." In other words, to my best knowledge neither a clear military definition of objectives nor a criterion when said mission is considered to be achieved and thus pullout begins, have ever been given. It has all been war on terror, and plenty of wishy-washy. It has been a bit like jumping out of the plane with the plan of thinking in mid-air and falling about how to get hands on a parachute. Dynamic process orientation, flexible mission design, you know. You have to go with the times, how gotta be flexible and solution-oriented. Sexy new language and creative terminology usage are key. The logic behind this political trick: to know that one cannot impact on the ground as long as one has not gotten a parachute. Thats why the fall to the ground could last forever, in these smart minds' thinking at least. Well, I have my ear-wax ready, to save my eardrum. P.S. Reminds me of an anecdote a US historian recently told on German TV, in a docu on the Japanese "defence forces". Formally, Japan has no army, the constitution prohibits that. When being confronted on some question on Japanese participation in international military scenarios, theoretically or real, the Japanese diplomat said, that where there are Japanese defence forces present there cannot be a military conflict existing and so it is harmless to be there - where Japanese soldiers-that-are-no-soldiers are present, there cannot be a warzone, becasue else the Japanese would not be there. The presence of the Japanese proves it that ther eis no war, because Japasnese forces are no "forces". According to Japanese diplomatic logic. - No joke, but real! Germany for years and years refused to call the war in Afghanistan actually a war. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 02-23-21 at 08:39 PM.

02-23-21, 09:50 PM	#5
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,841 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	NATO troops, U.S. included, are scheduled to leave Afghanistan 1 May. The major and most obvious difference between them is the U.S maintains direct control of U.S forces. NATO is the command center for the others involved. There has already been talk of extending that deadline though. The mission has always been about regional stability. Import also is to establish political influence by propping up a western friendly Afghan government too. Which is also helpful by making it harder for ChiComs to establish relations and its belt and road initiative in the region. __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time. Last edited by Rockstar; 02-23-21 at 10:08 PM.

02-25-21, 10:02 PM	#8
Onkel Neal Born to Run Silent Join Date: Jan 1997 Location: Cougar Trap, Texas Posts: 21,284 Downloads: 534 Uploads: 224	Ugh, do you think we will ever get out of that mess? __________________ SUBSIM - 26 Years on the Web

02-26-21, 02:54 AM	#9
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,501 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	We will get out the day our politicians turned realistic. As long as the illusion persists to turn the country into a western model or religious backwardly fanatics could be "reformed", no. Their war index still is around 6. Ours around 1, and below. Guess which civilization will have the longer breath. Overaged against overyouthed society. Good luck with that constellation. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

02-26-21, 10:32 PM	#11
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,841 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Well it was a U.N. mandate that got the ball rolling. Only one nation and coalition on earth had the reach, materiel, and power to project its will half way across the globe. What we've accomplished is something no other nation on earth could. The British tried the Soviet Union tried. This time we got it together and U.S. and NATO forces went in and with the use of their military were able to fulfill that mandate. Politically it remains unseen if the people of Afghanistan can grab hold and not let go of the opportunity we fought for and gave them. I'm under no illusion that it will somehow be perfect when we leave, it wont. It does however need to be relatively stable enough so that it will not fall back into the anarchy of the 80's and 90's and become a terrorist safe haven. The U.S., E.U. want a stable Afghanistan and Russia needs it. I guess we'll find out May 1st __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time. Last edited by Rockstar; 02-26-21 at 10:41 PM.

02-27-21, 10:01 AM	#12
Moonlight Admiral Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Fookhall Copse Posts: 2,137 Downloads: 184 Uploads: 0	^Poppycock, the Taliban will wrest control from the Afghan government once the foreign invaders have left, it might take them 5 years or more but once again it will become a terrorist safe haven. Haven't the UN or the US learnt anything from all the other invasions they've been involved in, most of those people don't want to be little westerners, and its time that the US and any other foreign invader realised that. As for any civilian contractors left in Afghanistan, they'd better use there brains and get the hell out of there quick or they're going to have them splattered all over the streets. Change the strategic decision makers thinking first to take the above into account before the next invasion occurs or the same screwup is going to happen again. All you've done is given the Taliban the ability and knowledge to kill and melt away into the night without any consequences. When the air cover and foreign troops are gone then they wont even be melting away, that's not the groundwork of a successful invasion old boy, its a bleeding ongoing disaster, and its of their own inept and limited thinking. Super Powers 0-2 Afghan warlords. __________________

02-27-21, 11:08 AM	#13
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,841 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	We better run while have the chance? You do realize U.S. and NATO forces have been there for close to 20 years now. If brains were going to be splattered in the streets chaos and Taliban everywhere. I think it would have happened long ago and we would have tucked tail an run like the Brits and Soviets did. The next invasion has already occurred there is no quagmire. The Taliban are no longer in power and we're still there and we're the ones setting the terms of our departure. I know, its hard to see it any other way when the world is crashing in around you on a daily basis. But things change, and since the death of Mullah Omar even the Taliban have expressed an interest in a political solution. But like I said there is only so much the West can do. I don't expect a perfect Afghanistan when we leave, the rest is up to them to make it work. __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time.

06-21-21, 02:27 PM	#14
Bilge_Rat Silent Hunter Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: standing watch... Posts: 3,793 Downloads: 344 Uploads: 0	I remember when the Taliban used to be the good guys...... __________________