Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Aktungbby]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-w...-hack-162a8b08

Vladimir Putin’s losses in Ukraine and the rebellion of the Wagner Group have increased the chances that the Russian president will lash out and expand the 17-month-old conflict. But World War III may not be what you expect. The current paradigm of escalating nuclear conflict was articulated 60 years ago by physicist Herman Kahn, founder of the Hudson institute, but other technologies have come a long way since then. Conventional guns, bombs, missiles or troops may not figure in World War III at all. Biological and computer viruses are likely to be the weapon of choice. Covid wasn’t a deliberate attack, but it quickly and successfully damaged the American economy. Any nation thinking of using a deadly virus as a weapon of war would first need to immunize its own people, perhaps under the guise of a flu vaccination. Long-term population-level immunity would require the virus be sufficiently optimized, before release, to reduce the probability of further mutation.

The novel coronavirus was sufficiently optimized so that no serious mutations occurred for nine months. The Delta variant appeared in India in October 2020. A weaponized virus would also need to incorporate an immune suppression gene—Covid had ORF8—that reduces early symptoms, facilitating spread by asymptomatic carriers. For a covert attack to be successful, the virus would need to be released not in the country of origin but in the target country, perhaps near a biological facility so the world would falsely conclude it came as a leak from a surreptitious domestic program.

Recall that early Covid panic came from Italy’s inability to care for all of its infected patients. Thus, for maximum disruption, the second thrust of any aggression might be a cyber attack on hospitals, perhaps disguised as ransomware. Again, the trick would be to make it seem as if the attack were originating outside the aggressor’s country. In other contexts this is called a “false flag” operation. The target country might not even recognize it as part of a two-front, synergistic attack of biological and computer viruses.

Ransomware could simultaneously target energy grids, power plants, factories, refineries, trains, airlines, shipping, banking, water supplies, sewage-treatment plants and more. But hospitals would be the most salient targets. Avoiding obvious military targets would enhance the illusion that World War III hadn’t begun. The attacker or attackers might falsely claim their own systems are also under siege. Misdirection can be more effective than a smoke screen.

This isn’t some far-fetched disaster scenario cooked up by Hollywood screenwriters. Biological and cyber viruses have been, in a sense, field tested. The great value to the attacker of a two-pronged biological and cyber attack is the possibility of achieving destructive goals while keeping the whole operation covert.

Deterring such an attack will require a clear, credible and articulated promise to respond to aggression. It can’t be covert. If China, Russia or both attacked the U.S. this way, how would we react? Policy makers need to come up with an answer. An economic embargo seems suboptimal. Many would interpret nuclear retaliation as disproportionate. Developing a retaliatory virus would take time, and responding this way would clearly violate the Biological Weapons Convention.

Defense matters too. It is essential to be able to develop vaccines rapidly using a viral backbone so that they can be retargeted with minimal additional testing. Hospitals and other critical infrastructure need to harden their cyber defenses. ....good to know I'm 5 vaccinations into WW III alreaady??!!

If deterrence fails and an attack takes place, correctly identifying the perpetrator has to be the first priority. This may or may not be easy, but retaliating against the wrong actor risks making an already bad situation worse. Reopening the Covid-19 origin investigation would provide good practice. Confiscation of the foreign assets of the attacking nation could be effective. A strong cyberattack capability aimed at the enemy’s military and industry is key. Hospitals should be spared, lest the victim of an attack appear to become the aggressor and lose the moral high ground.

There are many reasons why an adversary may want to launch a covert attack on the U.S. economy. America’s leaders need to take seriously the prospect that their country could be defeated without being invaded or even knowing it is under attack. The way to deter such an attack is to convince potentially hostile actors that success is impossible and the consequences for the attacker will be swift and severe. The U.S. needs to make it clear that its commitments to North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, Ukraine, Taiwan and others won’t waver even if the American economy falters.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

DONE! and in a submarine forum to boot Columbia, Surinam and Guiana BBY!!!https://th.bing.com/th/id/OIP.N6eZNq...id=ImgDet&rs=1 <In addition to seizures in Russia, Norway recently made its largest-ever seizure of cocaine at the end of March while police in Galicia, Spain, found Europe’s second-ever narco-submarine, capable of carrying 5 tons of cocaine. https://insightcrime.org/news/russia...ocaine-europe/
@ DargoBBY U have been corrected in true style! incl. one submersible!!??

I hope it all goes to Russia live myself in Rotterdam at least every week I repair the damage of this traffic. Know Suriname as it was our former colony can tell that country can never military help Ukraine and what they got in money they spent it to their own pocket.

We are in a Distinct Phase of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive

And the Ukrainians are in no rush

After a brief and nonsensical flurry of articles and claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was failing, things seem to have settled down. That is good, as people have recalibrated their expectations of where the Ukrainians are in their counteroffensive and, just as important, how long it might take until their present operations moves from the destruction phase to once again attempt some operational maneuver. To understand that, its probably best to talk about what phase we are in now. Something quite stark has happened in what the Ukrainians are targeting over the last few weeks. They have upped enormously the amount of effort they are devoting to the destruction of Russian artillery and MLRS systems. The increase is stark, and on average it seems that Ukrainian claims (used as a relative measure of effort—not as gospel truth for the number of units destroyed) has gone up by almost 200%. If you look at the claims of the Ukrainian high command as of this morning, you will see that they say they have destroyed 4330 Russian artillery systems and 658 MLRS systems since February 24, 2022. That works out to almost exactly 10 systems per day (4988 systems destroyed in 497 days).



But if you look at how many systems the Ukrainians have claimed to destroy since June 20, you will see how many more per day they are now saying are being hit. Its not just one or two days, its a much higher rate of destruction on every day (except for June 28). Overall, Ukraine claims to have destroyed 492 Russian artillery systems in 17 days—almost 29 per day. https://phillipspobrien.substack.com...e-of-the?sd=pf

The dutch cabinet has failed to agree on measures to reduce the influx of asylum seekers, sources around the cabinet report. This marks the end of the Rutte IV cabinet.

I hope this will not have a sizeable impact on aid to Ukraine.

[mapuc]

After heavy losses at Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, a Russian elite airborne brigade notorious for atrocities at Bucha was forced to make a chaotic retreat under fire, suffering more casualties, and some survivors were detained for refusing orders to immediately return to combat, Russian open-source site CIT says citing Russian reports....

https://twitter.com/ArmedMaidan/stat...73544672419861

Markus

[Skybird]

Thats all nice and well - but no word on how high the Ukrainian losses are regarding own artillery.

One year ago, in July I think, it was reported that Russian artillery pieces by numbers were superior by a factor of up to 20:1. Just saying. One year has passed since then, but still...


The cluster amunition now gets delivered by the US because conventional artillery grenades are running low and production cannot meet demand.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Thats all nice and well - but no word on how high the Ukrainian losses are regarding own artillery.

One year ago, in July I think, it was reported that Russian artillery pieces by numbers were superior by a factor of up to 20:1. Just saying. One year has passed since then, but still...


The cluster amunition now gets delivered by the US because conventional artillery grenades are running low and production cannot meet demand.

Ukraine and Russia's tank numbers are now roughly equal to one another's, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Oryx open-source analysis website. The figures underscore the extent to which Russia's advantage in heavy weapons has been reduced since it sent troops into Ukraine over 16 months ago.

According to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker, Russia has lost over 2,000 of the 3,417 tanks which it used to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Oryx estimates that the Russian army now has about 1,400 tanks remaining.

Ukraine in comparison has lost 550 of the 987 tanks it had at the start of the invasion and has managed to capture 545 Russian tanks, according to Oryx. Western allies have transferred 471 tanks to Kyiv, with an additional 286 expected to arrive soon. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are estimated to have approximately 1,500 tanks.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...nalysis-a81759

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ukraine and Russia's tank numbers are now roughly equal to one another's, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Oryx open-source analysis website. The figures underscore the extent to which Russia's advantage in heavy weapons has been reduced since it sent troops into Ukraine over 16 months ago.

According to the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker, Russia has lost over 2,000 of the 3,417 tanks which it used to invade Ukraine in February 2022. Oryx estimates that the Russian army now has about 1,400 tanks remaining.

Ukraine in comparison has lost 550 of the 987 tanks it had at the start of the invasion and has managed to capture 545 Russian tanks, according to Oryx. Western allies have transferred 471 tanks to Kyiv, with an additional 286 expected to arrive soon. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are estimated to have approximately 1,500 tanks.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...nalysis-a81759

Doesn't it not have to do with what type of tanks both side has most of.
Saw a video clip some days ago showing a train pulling many wagon with T54 and T55 on them.
This was inside Russia.

Markus

[Catfish]

^ destroy the Kerch bridge, then use long range munitions?
Ukraine has the intelligence, but lacks weapons for long range strikes.

[Catfish]

Some live radio transmission of russian soldiers being killed by their own artillery. Not for the faint hearted.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...41786983809024

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Doesn't it not have to do with what type of tanks both side has most of.
Saw a video clip some days ago showing a train pulling many wagon with T54 and T55 on them.
This was inside Russia.

Markus

A T55 most certainly can immobilize and destroy any modern tank if it can be maneuvered to the right spot and shoot up the engine or ammo bunker. However, the problem with these type of scenarios is that you are usually committing suicide when you do that, because that guy you just shot up can still shoot back, he has a wing man, and crunchies running around carrying AT weapons... In Iraq 2003 the Iraqis covered 23 mm AA guns with tarps and were driving them among the crowds of evacuating civilians on the rear of small trucks. Once behind an Abrams, they would light him up from the rear. That worked, but the guys doing that paid a huge price and all they would achieve is a mobility kill or seriously damaging the Abrams but not hurting the crew.

There is a difference between a mobility and catastrophic kill. The T55 can easily do a mobility kill on all Western MBTs. As usual, there are also different versions of the T55 and ammo. The T55 was still being built when the wall came down in 1989 and some versions while not the greatest tank in that time could still put up a fight against a western MBT. Likewise, some of the newer and upgraded versions of the M60 are still doing great work for the Israelis, Jordanians, etc. These tanks get upgraded and the newest version of the M60 out there is hardly an old hunk of junk, even though this tank is originally also from the 50s.

I only have seen them stuffed with explosives drive towards the Ukraine army, result was allways in a total kaboom before it reached the ukrainians.

[Dargo]

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration's forty-second drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package will provide Ukraine with additional artillery systems and ammunition, including highly effective and reliable dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM), on which the Administration conducted extensive consultations with Congress and our Allies and partners. It also includes additional air defense munitions, armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine protect its people and counter Russia's ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package include:

• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
• Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 31 155mm Howitzers;
• 155mm artillery rounds, including DPICM, and 105mm artillery rounds;
• 32 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• 32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
• Mine clearing equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• Penguin Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• 27 tactical vehicles to recover equipment;
• 10 tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
• Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
• Small arms and over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
• Spare parts and other field equipment.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Release...e-for-ukraine/

[mapuc]

How many 155mm Howitzers does Ukraine have now ?

Edit
Made a search:
"How many m777 howitzers does Ukraine have?
Ukrainian Ground Forces: 152 systems (108 of which were donated by the United States along with 200,000 155 mm artillery rounds and 18 in the additional package with 36,000 artillery rounds, 4 systems by Canada, and 6 systems by Australia, following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)."
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

How many 155mm Howitzers does Ukraine have now ?

Edit
Made a search:
"How many m777 howitzers does Ukraine have?
Ukrainian Ground Forces: 152 systems (108 of which were donated by the United States along with 200,000 155 mm artillery rounds and 18 in the additional package with 36,000 artillery rounds, 4 systems by Canada, and 6 systems by Australia, following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine)."
End edit

Markus

Its reported the triple-7s took heavy losses. There are less, therefore.

[Skybird]

German-Polish joint venture in Leopard maintenance? Well, many damaged Leopards are in Poland and do not get reapired since they arrived due to both countries being unable to agree on the Whens, Wheres and Whys.



https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]