Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The war is going well for Putin at the moment, for almost 2 weeks. The sanctions don't bother him, the losses also not, the army knocks everything down and reaches locally numerical superiority of 7:1 to 11:1, I read. The advance is slow but steady.

The Russians have obviously learned their lesson. Unfortunately.

But whether that translates into "war success" in the long run remains to be seen. After all, what territory and cities they conquer, they must then be able to hold, against Ukrainians who resort to asymmetric warfare and partisan warfare.

The narrative, according to which the advantages slowly shift back in favor of Ukraine the longer the war lasts, because they are getting more and more fire supeirority, I also do not believe uncritical, because this requires the delivery of heavy weapons, fast and steadily. The USA may stay involved - but Europe? France, Germany? Deutschland has not delivered anything at all for 10 weeks, not even light weapons. Paris and Berlin seem willing to accept a Russian dictatorial peace. They could betray Ukraine by forcing it to sign one through lack of arms deliveries - for lack of ammunition and weapons. Hopefully, Washington will steer against that. And hopefully the war will be over before there is the next presidential election in the uSA. And these start already a year before the election date, paralysing policy-making significantly.

It is once again a sad fact: without America, nothing works. An indictment of the Europeans.

But even if Ukraine "wins" in the end, it will have to deal with a destroyed industrial structure in the east and severe damage in countless cities and throughout the country. How this will continue, I dare not predict. The global economic and financial environment is deteriorating rapidly and drastically. The ukraine can maybe win - and still lose.

There is one winner. And that is surprisngly neither China, nor Russia - but America. China is stumbling, tackled by its superman Xi and his stubborn totalitarianism, covid lockdowns and lurching economy, its not material but verbal support for Russia and its aggressiveness in Asia, which leads to a strengthening of resistance in the region, giving China visibly problems, which a year or two ago no one wanted to suspect. Russia has prevented the modernization of its economy for more decades to come, is a pariah, ultimately abandoned by China, which only pays lip confessions. Europe - has left itself behind. The U.S., on the other hand, is once again pushing its global dominance, economically, diplomatically, militarily, even financially. It is unbelievable! And in this environment: good.

A German analyst in an editorial this morning interpreted the massive Russian numerical superiority in the Donbass battles as a sign of military weakness, and I think he is right. He argued that a ratio of 3:1 to 4:1 is expected for successful offensives, and that if the Russians are now massing 7:1 to 11:1, it probably means that they estimate the combat strength of their units to be so low that this enormous over-massing of forces is needed to compensate. Given the terroitorial challenges Russia faces elsewhere in its empire, the huge loss of prestige and the obvious combat weakness of the Russian army is another long-term problem that could cause Russia headaches in the future. If others no longer take you seriously, how can you deter them from challenging you?

The advance is slow but steady yes, but it is 1.5 mile on a good day the Donbas is large very large will take months to conquer the Donbas. That time, Russia does not have troops fighting now need to rest at one time if they can not replace it will halt the offensive even if they take Severodonetsk and can advance further west they gone fight an Ukraine army on higher ground that will slow them cause more casualties and longer supply lines. Some stronger claims that have the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kherson showing results. Maybe the Russians throwing everything at the Donbas was not the wisest.

[mapuc]

Heard in the news earlier today about some Russian soldiers had committed mutiny in Ukraine-Did not get where it was and how many soldiers who had committed mutiny.

Markus

[Skybird]

Orsted/Denmark could be next.
Severla suthern nations pay in roubles, and even bragged about it. Italy, Greece amongst them.
Its a clear violation of EU sanctions as specified.
The EU does - nothing so far. And consequences are not being mulled, it seems.
Could be that Russia waits for the next winter - and then cuts off the supply. The reserves in Europe then might be filled up more or less, but they do not last that long (2.5 months in case of Germany, and only when the winter is not especially cold, and Germany is amongst the better euqipped nations regarding gas reserve storage sites) and the EU will find it hard to replace these losses then with demand climbing and time running out.
Next winter will become very interesting, also due to the energy policy in germany.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Heard in the news earlier today about some Russian soldiers had committed mutiny in Ukraine-Did not get where it was and how many soldiers who had committed mutiny.

Markus

Reports in Kherson of Russians panicking and abandoning their positions, in some areas near the frontline. Ukraine's southern offensive in the Kherson region continues to show results and prove Russia's ill-disciplined forces don't like defending. Today, Russian troops withdrew from the village of Mykolaivka, which led to panic among other Russian units in the area. Ukraine's General Staff reports that they have seized Mykolaivka in Kherson oblast, which is located on the northern shore of Dnipro, 70 km | 43,496 mile East of Kherson. This would mean that the Ukrainian army has cut off the supply line to Kherson from Donbas.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Orsted/Denmark could be next.
Severla suthern nations pay in roubles, and even bragged about it. Italy, Greece amongst them.
Its a clear violation of EU sanctions as specified.
The EU does - nothing so far. And consequences are not being mulled, it seems.
Could be that Russia waits for the next winter - and then cuts off the supply. The reserves in Europe then might be filled up more or less, but they do not last that long (2.5 months in case of Germany, and only when the winter is not especially cold, and Germany is amongst the better euqipped nations regarding gas reserve storage sites) and the EU will find it hard to replace these losses then with demand climbing and time running out.
Next winter will become very interesting, also due to the energy policy in germany.

Next winter Denmark will have their Tyra field up and running-There's enough gas and oil in that field so Denmark kan support them self and even sell to other countries.

The reason to why Denmark shut it down some years ago, was that gas was cheaper from Russia.

Markus

[Skybird]

Happy Danes!
You could sell not only gas, but also sell your candles. When I was a schoolboy, we once were on summer holiday in Denmark (island Mohn), and bought plenty of those beautifully huge candles. For some reason, Germans are crazy for these. So were we.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Happy Danes!
You could sell not only gas, but also sell your candles. When I was a schoolboy, we once were on summer holiday in Denmark (island Mohn), and bought plenty of those beautifully huge candles. For some reason, Germans are crazy for these. So were we.

Hmm doesn't Germany have their own oil field made a search and I found this page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mittelplate

I don't know if it is possible to increase to production from what it is now

Markus

[tmccarthy]

He is right. Imagine that Ukraine had joined US/NATO, would there have been a war between US/NATO ever in the future? 5 years from now, 10 years or 20 years from now? Where would that war be fought... in Russia. Putin is saying no, the war will be fought now and it will be fought on Ukraine territory. I don't think Russia is going to lose fighting a war on its own territory ever again, if Russia loses it's going to be in a nuclear war and who will survive to be the winner? Joe Biden, Lindsey Graham, Antony Blinken, Victoria Nuland, Paul Wolfowitz...Boris Johnson?

If anyone wants a war with Russia or has a reason for war with Russia fine and good luck. (keeping in mind that the people in Washington D.C. are about the greediest and stupidest people on the planet.)

The corporate media's hand in this is obvious as they have labeled it "Putin's War." and highlight every action by Russia in the last decade as evil and never acknowledge US actions that preceded them that were provocative or even illegal. The west has taken steps toward war for 30 years to get here before the world had ever heard the name, Putin. Washington wants a war with Russia (and China) because it wants to control the world, sell weapons, control oil resources, and refuses to accept not being the only superpower in the world (if I'm saying something that is obvious sorry). In 10 years Putin will be dead and when the war came 2032 would the media still be calling it "Putins War"?

"Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union." - Paul Wolfowitz, The Wolfowitz Doctrine 1992

-Tim

[tmccarthy]

US intentions in the Crimea,

U.S. NAVAL DIPLOMACY IN THE BLACK SEA (2007)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26396849?seq=1

US plan to control energy thru Ukraine thwarted by Nord Stream end-run, Germany and a German engineering company built it?

Joe Biden opposes Russian-German Nord Stream 2 pipeline | DW News (2020)


Nord Stream 2 pipeline 'dangerous geopolitical weapon' said Ukraine(2021)

[Catfish]

RT (dis)information and maskirovka.

Originally Posted by tmccarthy

[...] Imagine that Ukraine had joined US/NATO, would there have been a war between US/NATO ever in the future? 5 years from now, 10 years or 20 years from now? [..]

Of course not. Russia would not have taken Crimea, and it would not have dared to attack Ukraine. Same as if Ukraine would have kept its own nuclear weapons instead of giving them to Russia.

I don't think letting oneself being blackmailed by Putin will lead to peace.
Should better speak about the next russian leader. Maybe this Kadyrov tiktok poser, seems he's a real nice guy.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Maybe this Kadyrov

Not sufficient anchors in the Kremlin circles.

[Skybird]

An agreement ha sbeen reached in Germany on that 100bn bonus budget for the Bundeswehr, and it has been watered down exactly as I feared and predicted. The money is no longer meant additional to a yearly 2% budget for defence, but it will be used only to boost the existing lower budget to 2%, and will be eaten up in 5 years. Also they implemented backdoors for escape routes away from those 2% every year. Zeitenwende...? Not for me, "turning points in history" look differently.



It has become known that industry and Bundeswehr both could deliver much more Marders than was indicated by pro-government circles - and many of them immediately, the industry has ijn parts readied them already. It is obvious that there is a clear prohibition by the chancellor. I would even question that even functional (loaded) Gepards and PZH2000 ever will be delivered. I believe it when I see it - and I not hold my breath for it any longer. Honestely said i think Bubble-Olaf is rightout lying to the German public, the Ukraine, and the international community. Deliberately, intentionally. He lies, plain and simpe.



You dont really need enemies when you have "friends" like Germany. On the last summit it showed that Germany is fully isolated and attracts growing anger internationally. Needless to say, when there is talk of safety guarantors after the war, Germany cannot be one of these. It has neither the muscle nor the will to fill such guarantees with any life and value. Nor does it have the honesty. It only wants to benefit from the prestige posing as such a guarantor. It may do in money, but not in military. But money transfers and economic ties bring no securty form military attacks. For that you need weapons, and the willingness to fight.



Time is playing for Putin's diplomatic calculation, the cracks in the EU's initial unity against Russia can no longer be denied, and they will widen with every week the war continues and summer passes by. Depüendencies form certain Russian exports will prevail for long time to come. Longer than they now are willing to admit in Brussels or Berlin. Oil. Nuclear fuel, ores, fertilizers. Also, while quite some wetsenr companies leave Russia, there are still many companies who still refuse to leave the Russian market.



One also wonders what Macronman and Bubble-Olaf ware talking about with Putin for almost one and a half hour...?


Yesterday I said a winner of all this is the USA. There seems to be another one, an emerging one, and that is Poland, whose reputation and influence especially in Easterneuropean countries is widening, it becomes the clear leading power of the Eastern countries and becomes more and more a pressing force in NATO as well. Germany, on the other hand, is loosing both prestige and influence, and tremendously and fast.

[Skybird]

Are there really only morons, fantasists and idiots left in Russian politics? There must be, otherwise this war would not have been possible.

A senior Russian MP has proposed kidnapping a defense minister from a NATO state in Ukraine and bringing him to Moscow to question him about the "orders" the West is giving to Kiev. Oleg Morozov, who is a member of the dominant United Russia party, said the West's arms deliveries to Ukraine posed a direct threat to Russia and could force Moscow to rethink its military goals.

"You know, maybe it's a fantastic plan I have that in the near future, at some point, a war minister of a NATO country will travel by train to Kiev to speak to Selensky," Morozov told the talk show "60 Minutes" on state television channel Rossia-1 late Monday. "But he would not arrive. And would wake up somewhere in Moscow Moscow," Morozov said. "You mean we would kidnap them?" TV host Olga Skabeyeva then asked. "Yes. And then we would find out who gave what order," Morozov said. "It's not such a mythical picture ... There are new rules in the world now. May all the war ministers who gather in Kiev think a little bit about that, think a little bit about what it would be like to wake up in Moscow."
(NZZ)

Said TV host Olga Skabeyeva recently shone with the announcement that one must set about "denazifying" not only Ukraine, but also "demilitarizing" all of NATO.



Russians - watch less gangster movies, they do your mental health no good, apparently.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

An agreement ha sbeen reached in Germany on that 100bn bonus budget for the Bundeswehr, and it has been watered down exactly as I feared and predicted. The money is no longer meant additional to a yearly 2% budget for defence, but it will be used only to boost the existing lower budget to 2%, and will be eaten up in 5 years. Also they implemented backdoors for escape routes away from those 2% every year. Zeitenwende...? Not for me, "turning points in history" look differently.



It has become known that industry and Bundeswehr both could deliver much more Marders than was indicated by pro-government circles - and many of them immediately, the industry has ijn parts readied them already. It is obvious that there is a clear prohibition by the chancellor. I would even question that even functional (loaded) Gepards and PZH2000 ever will be delivered. I believe it when I see it - and I not hold my breath for it any longer. Honestely said i think Bubble-Olaf is rightout lying to the German public, the Ukraine, and the international community. Deliberately, intentionally. He lies, plain and simpe.



You dont really need enemies when you have "friends" like Germany. On the last summit it showed that Germany is fully isolated and attracts growing anger internationally. Needless to say, when there is talk of safety guarantors after the war, Germany cannot be one of these. It has neither the muscle nor the will to fill such guarantees with any life and value. Nor does it have the honesty. It only wants to benefit from the prestige posing as such a guarantor. It may do in money, but not in military. But money transfers and economic ties bring no securty form military attacks. For that you need weapons, and the willingness to fight.



Time is playing for Putin's diplomatic calculation, the cracks in the EU's initial unity against Russia can no longer be denied, and they will widen with every week the war continues and summer passes by. Depüendencies form certain Russian exports will prevail for long time to come. Longer than they now are willing to admit in Brussels or Berlin. Oil. Nuclear fuel, ores, fertilizers. Also, while quite some wetsenr companies leave Russia, there are still many companies who still refuse to leave the Russian market.



One also wonders what Macronman and Bubble-Olaf ware talking about with Putin for almost one and a half hour...?


Yesterday I said a winner of all this is the USA. There seems to be another one, an emerging one, and that is Poland, whose reputation and influence especially in Easterneuropean countries is widening, it becomes the clear leading power of the Eastern countries and becomes more and more a pressing force in NATO as well. Germany, on the other hand, is loosing both prestige and influence, and tremendously and fast.

Most enlightening

[Jimbuna]

The head of the key eastern city of Severodonetsk says the front line has cut the city in half.

But Oleksandr Stryuk says Ukraine is holding out and still defending its positions there.

The area's regional governor says the situation is grave after Russians entered the city.

The entire region is under continuous bombardment, Serhiy Haidai says.

Moscow now occupies almost all of the Luhansk region, which it recognised as independent before the invasion in February.

European Union leaders are holding a second day of talks, having agreed on a plan to cut Russian oil imports yesterday.

Russia has stopped supplying gas to the Netherlands after Dutch energy firm GasTerra refused to pay in roubles.