AUKUS

[ET2SN]

You're making this wayyyyyyyy too complicated.

[Jimbuna]

Sunak is on his way to the US to finalise the defence pact.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64929819

[Skybird]

^


"The plan is for nuclear submarines to be built in Adelaide, south Australia, with the UK and US providing consultation on technology for their production.The UK is hoping the Aukus pact will result in work for UK shipyards, with reports suggesting Canberra could select to build a modified version of the British Astute-class submarine, while taking delivery of up to five US Virginia-class submarines during the production stage.


In addition to submarines, the pact is committed to information and technology exchange between the three nations in areas ranging from intelligence and quantum technology to the acquisition of cruise missiles."

[ET2SN]

We'll know more on Monday.

I'm still not so sure about the "taking delivery of Virginia class boats" part.

Just a WAG on my part, but providing forward basing for five US subs sounds more plausible. The US retains ownership and crews and there will be knife fights in the parking lots of San Diego and Pearl Harbor over which boats get forward deployed.

[Skybird]

But it makes perfetc sense the way it ets repoprted. SSN do not dveelope themselves, but need experience with pöratccially hadlöing thme, by triane crews. Many y<ears will pass by before the first Australian "Astute 2.0 AUS" gets laucnhed. Until then they need to fill the gaps in their submarine fleet. And so they buy from the ready rack of what is on offer. It reminds a bit of the Poles buying tanks and fighters and howitzer in Korea. Most of the toal volume will be build in - Poland, only ht eifrst systems will be - and already are - delivered form Korea.


Whatever. The numbers probably will shrink but the meat gets now added to the skeleton of the AUKUS idea.

[Skybird]

The press conference is running. They confirmed this: three Virginas will be aquired by AUS early next decade, with crew training done via Briotish and Americna boats stationed in Australia, and an option to buy two more boats, and after that the ultimate goal is a completely new submarine design named SSN-AUKUS that will combine British and American submarine technology.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-64945036

All what I said, you hear me ET2SN...? even the reduction of numbers that I predicted.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

All what I said, you hear me ET2SN...?

Well played, Sky.

I need to read this stuff for a couple of days to make heads or tails out of it.

My idea of having the US (and UK, I guess) forward deploy SSNs to Oz came out. Now, they just need a base so they have somewhere to park and load supplies.

-If you live in Oz and you're getting tired of just playing games, this might be a great time to talk to the recruiter. This plan will have to be a long-term commitment, so no worries about a Navy draw-back in the long run. Getting into the program early can mean some long days BUT you would also be getting in on the ground floor if you're thinking "career".

-If you live in the US and want a really cool job, Ingalls and EB will probably want to talk to you. With EB, you'll want to move to CT. or R.I. for about six months prior to dropping your application (trust me, it helps).

So, this is really early and my Swamy hat doesn't fit right but it sounds like-

- Three Va. class new-construction boats get sold to Oz between 2024 to 2027 or 2028. Just to add some windage, let's call it 2025 to 2030. As soon as a base is ready, the US and UK provide forward deployed boats for at-sea training and ops.

- By 2030 (???) the UK's SSN(R) program comes online and delivers new boats to the UK and Oz. Meanwhile, Oz has to hustle to build a submarine ship yard for new construction and refit. They also need to train the Engineers and laborers to staff this ship yard. This is where things start to get dicey, IMO. We're assuming the people and government of Australia will stay committed to the long haul. Building all of this infrastructure will crater if Oz thinks they can build a new hull every 3-5 years or so. There's also the big question of just how many SSNs Australia wants?

- Meanwhile, the PRC has their centennial in 2049. They also have some hurdles in terms of their population and over-all wealth. Its very possible that India becomes the new power broker in the region or that China has to make some big changes along the way.


Anyway, discuss...

[Kapitan]

Overall I do think Australia will revise from 8 down to 6 which seems to be a manageable number.

But it is great news that UK and Australia will once again operate the same type of boats.

[ET2SN]

I thought I should post this.



From the mouths of the horses, as it were.
It is tough to have a strong grasp on what's really going on, and how all of it will play out.

[Jimbuna]

No prizes for guessing the Chinese reaction.

China has accused the US, UK and Australia of “going further down a dangerous road” as the three nations meet to discuss further nuclear support in the IndoPacific. China’s foreign ministry accused the three countries, who are discussing the supply of nuclear-capable submarines to Australia, as “disregarding” the concerns of the international community as tensions in the IndoPacific continue to worsen. Australia's defence minister said the deal was necessary to counter the biggest conventional military buildup in the region since World War II, though he refrained from explicitly mentioning China.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...es-deal-latest

[ET2SN]

..and another report on what this deal will look like:






The running guess seems to be that Australia will buy one or three or five Virginias as a stop gap until 2050 when the new SSN comes on-line. So, take your pick. There are plenty of options.

[Jimbuna]

Latest prototype undergoing sea trials

[Skybird]

When I was a little boy I loved this book for the submarines on its cover:

[Jimbuna]

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

When I was a little boy I loved this book for the submarines on its cover:

All I had to see was Tom Swift.

I spent many weekends as a child searching for formations of Tomacite.
That series is much older than you may think. There were Tom Swift books dating back to WWI.