Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

Pentagon chief at Ramstein: 'Ukraine will not surrender and neither will we'

The United States of America, together with other participants of Ramstein, supports Ukraine and will hold on as long as the Ukrainians hold on, says the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin.

"When Putin launched his unjust and unprovoked war choice, he was betting that Ukraine would fall, but he couldn't have been more wrong. Ukraine fought Putin's invasion with incredible courage and phenomenal skill," Austin said.

According to the head of the Pentagon, the Kremlin is still betting that the countries of the contact group will lose interest in Ukraine and the support of partners will weaken.

"But I am more determined than ever, and I know that you are as well. This contact group remains resolute, undaunted and firm. And make no mistake, the United States is still in favor of supporting Ukraine. America will continue to support Ukraine's main struggle against Putin's imperial aggression," he said.
Austin emphasized that coalition members, including the United States, support Ukraine because it is right and because it is in the basic security interests of the States themselves.

"Ukraine will not surrender and neither will we," the head of the Pentagon emphasized.

On February 12, information appeared in the mass media that the head of the Pentagon canceled his visit to Brussels due to urgent hospitalization.

As part of his visit, he was to personally chair a meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine in Brussels. The 70-year-old head of the Pentagon was hospitalized for bladder problems.

Later, it became known that Austin was planning to take part in the meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine, despite his urgent hospitalization.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown and Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security at the Pentagon Celeste Wallander will also participate in "Ramstein" from the American side.

We also reported that the meeting will include a coalition report on the transfer of F-16s to the Ukrainian military.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...87aa976c&ei=25

[Dargo]

Ukraine removes troops from Avdiivka for reinforcement 'more favorable places'
The Ukrainian army is withdrawing an unknown number of soldiers from the besieged city of Avdiivka. That is what a spokesman for the Ukrainian army, Dmytro Lychovi, told a Ukrainian television channel. The town in eastern Ukraine has been surrounded and fiercely attacked by the Russian army for months. The soldiers are more useful in "more favourable places," the spokesman said. There they could contribute in defeating the Russian army. They can do little in Avdiivka, as the only remaining access road is in danger of being blocked by the Russian advance. Russia has not yet taken control of Avdiivka, but that seems a matter of time. "Supply and evacuation to Avdiyivka is complicated, but a spare logistical artery is involved, which was prepared in advance," Dmytro Likhovyi reported. Presumably, the Russians want to use the city as a strategic location to attack the rest of Donetsk province. In the battle for Avdiivka, Russia did lose thousands of soldiers and hundreds of tanks in recent months; little remains of the city.

Latvia leads coalition for 1 million drones to Ukraine
Latvia will lead a coalition to supply one million drones to Ukraine. According to the Defence Ministry in Riga, in addition to Ukraine and Latvia, the Netherlands, Lithuania, Estonia, Sweden, Denmark and Germany have signed a letter of intent to join the coalition. The countries will invest in drone production and will also supply drones and spare parts to Ukraine. Testing of drones and training of troops are also planned. "Drone technology has significantly changed the strategy and tactics of warfare. Drones play an important role in Ukraine's arsenal and are effective in reconnaissance and elimination of the opponent," Latvian Defence Minister Andris Spruds said Wednesday night after the meeting of the International Contact Group for Ukraine, which coordinates military support for the country. Latvia itself plans to allocate 10 million euros within a year for the development of the drone coalition. The defence ministry of the EU and NATO country received information about the drones needed by Ukraine and already started talks with local manufacturers.

More defence positions at Kharkiv
The Ukrainian military is building more and more defensive positions. These have been around in the Donbas region for some time, since the first beginning of the battle with Russia in 2014. Now positions are also appearing in the northeast, in Kharkiv province. The Russian army is said to be gathering a force in recent weeks to take the province. An estimated 40,000 soldiers plus 500 tanks and more armoured vehicles are involved. A spokesman for the Ukrainian land forces put the number in perspective. It would mainly be to replenish losses. And they are not all combat units, according to him, either. Those 40,000 also include all sorts of supply units, such as medical, liaison, and maintenance troops. And the Russians' equipment is not too good either, according to the army spokesman. The barrels of the guns are worn out, he assumes, as the shelling decreases in intensity.

Despite these relativizations, the Ukrainians are strengthening their positions northeast of Kuyansk. That is now a ghost town, but interesting as a military target because it is relatively high and offers an overview of a large area. It is also a railroad junction. On the streets, there are almost only soldiers walking around who have some time off. They shop at a local market, which sells all kinds of items to make life in the trenches a little easier, such as jackboots, pocket knives and pesticides against rats and mice. These are a major pest in the underground bunkers. The new positions are about five kilometres from Kuyansk, on the eastern side. "The Russians are there, on the horizon. Two, three kilometres from here," says First Lieutenant 'Joker'. This is the front line, where the Ukrainian and Russian armies constantly bombard each other. The dull sound of artillery and the staccato of a rapid-fire cannon can be heard from the distance. Somewhere, an alarm begins to sound. In this valley, just outside heavily battered Kuyansk, a new battle could be taking place. "This is the front line," says Joker. "Here we have just set up barricades: in five rows there are what we call 'dragon's teeth': pointed concrete obstacles attached to each other with steel cables. And around them, in turn, is barbed wire." For miles, you can see the dragon's teeth sticking up out of the flat land. Still, it does not seem sufficient to stop a large army force and hundreds of tanks. "But this is not all," says Joker. "We know the exact coordinates of this line, so if the Russians wanted to break through here, our artillery would know exactly where to hit them. Also, this is only the first barricade." A few hundred yards away, the next hurdle was built. Over the past few nights, invisible to the enemy, men of the 123rd Brigade have dug into the heavy black clay. Through slippery paths, you reach the fresh trenches.

Four soldiers are just sitting down to a breakfast of bread with sausage and tea. The stove is burning; it is almost homey. But this unit will be the first to confront the enemy when the first line has fallen. Heavy weapons they do not have, only their rifles and rocket launchers. Therefore, their task is not to actually stop the Russians: all they have to do is slow things down so that the Ukrainian army can bring in heavy artillery. Along a 1,000 kilometre front, you don't always have everything you need ready to repel an attack. A little extra time can then make just the difference. Joker: "We are dealing with a powerful enemy that keeps changing its plans. When they find a weak spot, they attack."

---
Russian soldiers east of Krasnohorivka, to the northeast of Avdiivka. "Corpses everywhere. They're all ours. There's war, but this... it was a meatgrinder here. Out of 4,000 people, a brigade, 30% remain" For every meter of Ukrainian land they take, they pay an unreasonable price. And it's waiting for them everywhere in Ukraine. Video 18+: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...19262889685150 Russia seized 0.006% of Ukraine in 2023 at a cost of 250k of their soldiers (dead and wounded).

Trump has offered to lend aid to Ukraine while a vote on a big aid package is delayed - Bloomberg "They want to give them another $60 billion. Do it this way. Lend them the money. If they can, they'll pay us back. If not, they don't have to pay it back to us."

Is this real or campaign rhetoric?

Avdiivka Dilemma: Analyzing Tactical Realities and Operational Necessities

On February 7th, 2024, we were among the first to report that the fall of Avdiivka seemed inevitable. Since then, the situation has deteriorated further, with Russian forces advancing deeper. In response, Ukraine deployed its elite 3rd Separate Assault Brigade to the area to assist with the situation. However, the critical situation in Avdiivka persists and certain units face the imminent threat of being encircled or cut off from crucial logistics routes. By leveraging satellite imagery, sources on the ground, and OSINT resources, we would like to offer you insights into the dynamically evolving battlefield.

https://frontelligence.substack.com/...yzing-tactical

WhatÂ’s next?
The most logical course of action at this point would likely be a withdrawal and evacuation from Avdiivka. While this may be viewed unfavorably from a political perspective, the initial months of defending Avdiivka inflicted substantial damage on the Russian military, preventing them from advancing deep into Ukrainian territory as originally planned. The Russians failed to achieve a breakthrough, rapidly encircle Avdiivka, and access the operational space to strike Ukrainian rears and logistic routes supplying other forces across Donetsk oblasts. Instead, as of February 9, 2024, more than 655 vehicles suffered varying levels of damage or were destroyed, captured, and abandoned on the outskirts of Avdiivka, as reported by OSINT analyst Naalsio, known for meticulously recording geolocated and video-confirmed losses. Between October 10th and November 28th, our team has identified and reported more than 211 damaged or abandoned Russian vehicles near Avdiivka.

This provided an opportunity for Ukraine to fortify and strengthen areas beyond Avdiivka, albeit the construction of fortifications is still incomplete. Avdiivka is Ukraine's last gateway to Donetsk—a potential foothold for offensive operations to liberate the city. Despite the theoretical promise, this prospect is becoming increasingly unrealistic in light of the current frontline situation. During this highly dynamic environment, the trajectory of the battle suggests an inevitable withdrawal of Ukrainian forces and the imminent fall of important defense positions such as Zenit. Barring any unexpected events, this chapter is likely to conclude soon.

[mapuc]

Avdiivka is, what I have learned, a non-strategic city

They should have withdrawn weeks ago-Yes they have killed thousands of Russians and destroyed hundreds of Tanks and other materials.

As I have said before-Losing 20.000 is nothing for Russia. Losing 2 or 3000 men is a disaster for Ukraine.

Ukraine is fighting two intern problems.

Not enough ammo
Not enough boots on the ground.

Read somewhere they needed 500.000 men.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Avdiivka is, what I have learned, a non-strategic city

They should have withdrawn weeks ago-Yes they have killed thousands of Russians and destroyed hundreds of Tanks and other materials.

As I have said before-Losing 20.000 is nothing for Russia. Losing 2 or 3000 men is a disaster for Ukraine.

Ukraine is fighting two intern problems.

Not enough ammo
Not enough boots on the ground.

Read somewhere they needed 500.000 men.

Markus

Losing is a matter in Russia certainly for Putin the longer you can hurt Russia the more Putin must invest in security, and he knows security plans can fail that is why he did not announce general mobilisation. The more Russia loses the more something suddenly can happen, it is the adding of small events that will become unstoppable for any dictator. Russia has an army of more than 500,000 at the moment in Ukraine and... it only could advance 0.006% in 2023 this is more a disaster for Russia specially with the problems Ukraine has at the moment. Avdiivka is a planned operation, it has fulfilled its purpose if they had pulled out weeks before Ukraine had not destroyed hundreds of vehicles that are not so easy to replace. If you lose 70% of your units, you can not use those ghost, vehicles in the future getting it replaced cost time and hurt your offensive capability after Avdiivka Russia will have it more difficult because this is where Ukraine is better defending in the field. One thing that Russia has shown to be really bad at it's its crossing these big fields, especially big fields where the town is well defended. For example like if you can cross this big field into town, and you take a ton of casualties crossing it if you can get in you can drop off infantry but once the Infantry is there, they lose their vehicle support. Because the vehicles have to immediately leave, or they get destroyed so they lose their vehicle support, and they're just infantry on their own they're really difficult to resupply. You can resupply them, but you take a ton of casualties doing it, and it's hard, so the Infantry gets stuck here where they can't build up the power to push forward. Every time they go forward they take big risks, and they end up overexposing them or overextending themselves, and then they get beaten back by whatever forces whether Ukraine can push. Because Ukraine can get vehicles here a lot easier than Russia, or they get beaten back by drone attacks or maybe Ukrainian infantry. This is the reason Russia failed to kettle Avdiivka a lot of towns with big fields around it. Ukraine can defend these field/towns with lesser men that you can use on other places on the front. Ukraine is buying time for something elsewhere.

[mapuc]

This part of an Danish article says it all

We should never ever underestimate the capabilities of the Russians to produce weapons and sacrifice lives, but right now there is no reason to panic. Russia is not going to attack a NATO country as long as they are tied up in Ukraine and as long as we stick together in Europe.

Here is the article in full

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go..._x_tr_pto=wapp

Edit
In the headline in the article it says blow Trump-It's google alright. The correct translation would be forget Trump/to hell with Trump
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

It looks as if the assassination of Navalny has finally been completed.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

As a martyr of the opposition, Navalny may become more dangerous to Putin than when he languished in his cell.

Originally Posted by Navalny

If they decide to kill me, it means we are incredibly strong.

Putin's scared of the Russian people scared of protests state employees remove flowers laid to honour Navalny around Russia, police have been cordoning off memorials, dispersing mourners and arresting people with signs.

3 EU countries block decision on procurement of ammunition for Ukraine outside bloc

The EU may try to mitigate the immediate shortage of ammunition in Ukraine by using the bloc's money to jointly purchase shells in the global market. However, according to three EU diplomats, a small group of European countries (France, Greece and Cyprus) led by France is blocking attempts to use EU money to purchase shells outside the bloc. Particularly because European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up production... https://ukranews.com/en/news/985189-...ide-bloc-media

Why? Really why? The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production, so the only real reason is greed. We could easily buy them from South Korea, really can not see any problem here.

Ukrainian military continues the defence of Avdiivka to prevent Russian forces and artillery from entering the west of Donetsk region. This was stated by the spokesman of the operational and strategic group of troops "Tavria" Dmytro Lykhovi. Lykhovi also emphasized that the main priority is the lives of soldiers. Another 150 FPV drones were urgently sent to the Ukrainian defenders in Avdiivka as aid, –– Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klychko said. 50 "birds" each are already going to the troops of the 3rd assault brigade, the 110th separate mechanized brigade and the 47th separate mechanized brigade "Magura". There are some positions in Avdiivka where 6 Ukrainian soldiers are defending, and about 100 enemy soldiers are storming. This was reported by the Major of the Armed Forces, Deputy Commander of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, Maksym Zhorin. "At least 6 brigades of the Russian army, plus one brigade of the DPR, special forces are now being "erased" by the Ukrainian forces," –– Zhorin writes. https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...48458875543568 It is pretty safe to say now that Ukrainian troops have left most positions in the city.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Why? Really why? The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production, so the only real reason is greed. We could easily buy them from South Korea, really can not see any problem here.

There is a mistrust in general production capacities in Europe.



Then, the problem is illustrated in examples from Germany. In the spring after the Russian invasion started, Rheinmetall already offered the German goverment imroved output of ammunitions, tanks, and refurbishing old mothballed tanks. The German govenrment endlessly, endlessly refused to accept that by making legally binding orders. Instead the Scholzians told the industry it should produce in advance, stockpiling the produced goods for later orders - that may or may not come at a later time. Which by German law is illegal, btw, the Geman industry is not allowed to produce and stockpile non-ordered military weapons and ammunition. So, the Scholzians wanted to avoid getting bound in legal obligations by placing such orders, and the industry should invest in advance while always taking all the risk 100% that the ordered stuff never would get called up for order.



So, what this is about is that the industry will increase its production capacities - once the governments have engaged themselves in legally binding contracts. They do not want to be at risk of loosing all their investements. And they want this black on white, in legally binding form. Which some govenrments still want to avoid.


Granted, the French also want to avoid more military orders placed outside their own benefittign scheme, they still are angry that Germany has ordered its new fighterbombers in the US, not waiting for French-German co-developed fighters-bombers. France wants reliability for the European arms producers - and thus: French arms producers.



And Greece still buys a very lot of Russian gas, does not want tp piss its deleivering partner Russia, too much. Aftzer all,m Greece is one fo tzhose countries form all beginning on that was not too enthusiastic on supporting Ukraine. Its cultural ties, too: Greece is predominantly Christian orthodox, like Russia.


The decisions of today shou,d ahve been made alreeadsy 18 motnbhs ago. Then today we would already be 18 months further ahead in the development cycle.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Dargo

3 EU countries block decision on procurement of ammunition for Ukraine outside bloc

The EU may try to mitigate the immediate shortage of ammunition in Ukraine by using the bloc's money to jointly purchase shells in the global market. However, according to three EU diplomats, a small group of European countries (France, Greece and Cyprus) led by France is blocking attempts to use EU money to purchase shells outside the bloc. Particularly because European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up production... https://ukranews.com/en/news/985189-...ide-bloc-media

Why? Really why? The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production, so the only real reason is greed. We could easily buy them from South Korea, really can not see any problem here.

Led by France eh?

Can't understand why....it's not as if they fight long enough to have a use for ammunition

[Jimbuna]

The US has warned that Russia could seize Ukraine's key eastern town of Avdiivka - the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in recent months.

"Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, citing Ukraine's ammunition shortages.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to do everything to "save as many Ukrainian lives as possible".

Russian troops have made gains in Avdiivka, threatening to encircle it.

The town - which has been almost completely destroyed - is seen as a gateway to nearby Donetsk, the regional Ukrainian capital seized by Russian-backed fighters in 2014 and later illegitimately annexed by Moscow.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Led by France eh?

Can't understand why....it's not as if they fight long enough to have a use for ammunition

Macron talks allot with big words, but France delivery to Ukraine is small. The Sun king does not talk the talk, certainly not walk the walk.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The US has warned that Russia could seize Ukraine's key eastern town of Avdiivka - the scene of some of the fiercest fighting in recent months.

"Avdiivka is at risk of falling into Russian control," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said, citing Ukraine's ammunition shortages.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to do everything to "save as many Ukrainian lives as possible".

Russian troops have made gains in Avdiivka, threatening to encircle it.

The town - which has been almost completely destroyed - is seen as a gateway to nearby Donetsk, the regional Ukrainian capital seized by Russian-backed fighters in 2014 and later illegitimately annexed by Moscow.

It is pretty safe to say now that Ukrainian troops have left most positions in the city. Ukraine pulling back as fast they can but leaving the city they need to go over mud roads in open fields the coke plant is still holding it has a better corridor to safely leave so that will be the last place they gone hold for the moment till other troops are safe. Russia has pulled all they can spare from other places to conquer Avdiivka they attack with a huge force.

[mapuc]

They fought well the Ukrainian in and around Avdiivka

If they can put up a similar fight when Russia pushes on to take Donetsk then they have done a good job.

Ukraine may, as it looks now, lose the war, however the damage they have inflicted on Russia is without precedent, we have to go all the way back to World War II to find the same casualty figure or thereabouts

But a win is a win-whether you have lost 10 or 20.000 men if you are Russian that is.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

They fought well the Ukrainian in and around Avdiivka

If they can put up a similar fight when Russia pushes on to take Donetsk then they have done a good job.

Ukraine may, as it looks now, lose the war, however the damage they have inflicted on Russia is without precedent, we have to go all the way back to World War II to find the same casualty figure or thereabouts

But a win is a win-whether you have lost 10 or 20.000 men if you are Russian that is.

Markus

It is not a win if your offensive capability is lost in this city (this happened before) if Ukraine pulls back to better position it can hurt Russia in the same way after this defence line there are higher grounds, rivers, etc and more defence lines it is gone to be tough for Russia to keep momentum in its forward push Ukraine defence lines will break this. You see it at many other locations, Russia tries but fails to build up a fast-forward push, and they have gone in with all they have lost too many to build up speed.