Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Rockstar]

If Putin leaves Ukraine in a state of total disrepair & destruction he didn’t win but then he didn’t lose either. That’s what I got out of it.

[Skybird]

Putin already has lost the war. Russia's nimbus of being unbeatable, is destroyed. Second strongest army in the world? Laugh on! The military apparatus is in ruins. The economy is punished and wll be in delcine for years. Look at the Southern areas, former sovjet areas: they all suddenly stand up and fight each other, are not scared of Russian masters anymore. And China does not see Russia as an equal anymore. His own personal fate Putin tied to the war, and this his fate is in question. Russia has lost this war, no matter what happens in Ukraine. The price for whatever they acchieved in Ukraine already is way too high.

The question is whether the ukraine can translate Russia's defeat into an own victory, and that also is in quesitonc considering the enormous destruction, the damaged economy, the financial situation, the wiped out cities. As I see it, Russia AND Ukraine have lost.

Also lost have the Europeans. Their - especially Germany'S and France's - diplomacy and its underlying assumptions are in smoking ruins, its whole diplomatic model has collapsed, and the constraints of existential realpolitik are forcing Europe, with ice-cold grins, to abandon ideological maximalist positions that have always been unworldly but now threaten to threaten its very existence. Not to mention to the massively hurt economy and the acceleration of the impöosion of the Euro system.

Lost also has China. Russia has created a so unsettled world situation that China's own ambitions and global projects have taken huge damage, and this in a time of further self-inflicted damage due to rigid zero covid policies, and demographic problems, and imploding fiscal systems and property bubbles bursting. I doubt Bejing has warm feeling for Putin. He really messed up their own powerplay. That Russia now more depends on china than the other way around, hardly is compensation for that. If Putin now uses nukes, China will really have big problems with that.

There is also a clear winner: the US. All others take economical, military and financial and reputation and influence losses. The US gaines on all these. Plus it can now sell fracked LNG gas to before oh so hesitent Europe, and it can dictate the prices for it. And it is so far away that any fallout from the Ukraine - physically or poltically - will not reach it. And Europe's dependency has clearly been demonstrated. The costs for rebuilding Ukraine will be left to the Europeans. And I do not even disagree with that: the US has delivered several times more military aid than all of Europe together.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by August

The guy is entitled to his opinion. Agree or disagree, that doesn't make him an ******* no matter how you spell it.

You're correct in that everyone has an opinion. Catfish has expressed his as well. You have an opinion as well, August. They can all be respected. My opinion, for what's it's worth is that Jordan Petersen should refrain from going into military matters unless he has some background or expertise he isn't telling us of.

Russia has threatened Poland, Germany and England and France not to mention the U.S. with Nuclear weapons. Putin certainly can't wage a war with conventional forces against the countries of NATO. NATO would make the War in the Ukraine look like a picnic. It's certainly understandable that those who live in those European countries like Catfish in Germany would be uneasy.

Putin is on a fools errand if he doesn't understand that most of those countries he has threatened with Nuclear Weapons also have a nuclear arsenal that would leave Russia a smoldering, radioactive ash pile.

Most here in Subsim report what they have read without lending anything in the way of forecasting. Most here have also lamented the stupid waste, destruction and loss of life. Something else we can all agree on.

As Rockstar has alluded to and I think we can all agree, is that there will be no winners in this Ukraine war. Then again, there never are any winners in a war. That's what makes it something to be avoided.

Originally Posted by Rockstar

If Putin leaves Ukraine in a state of total disrepair & destruction he didn’t win but then he didn’t lose either. That’s what I got out of it.

That was about my take as well.

[mapuc]

^ There is a winner in a war...Weapon manufactors

Markus

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ There is a winner in a war...Weapon manufactors

Markus

Well, that's true, too.

[Reece]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ There is a winner in a war...Weapon manufactors

Markus

have to give you a plus for that comment!!

[mapuc]

Russia will declare war after the "referenda" - terrorist Girkin.

“The next step after the “referenda” is an ultimatum. Either Ukraine withdraws troops from the "DPR", "LPR", Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Or Russia officially declares war.”

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...22237547929601

TPYXA is a reliable source.

Markus

[MaDef]

I have a question, after watching the lackluster performance of the Russian military, bad logistics, supply chains, and equipment issues, etc. Just how viable is the Russian nuclear arsenal?

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ There is a winner in a war...Weapon manufactors

Markus

Yes the Americans.

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Because standing up against Russia is not about economics alone, simple.
It is about being against something being obviously wrong, 'political' if you will, but also including sheer hate against an aggressor.

So you think "we" cannot win an economical war against Russia?
You think we cannot win a military war against Russia?
I tell you what, bury your head and chime in with Putin.

Well Catfish, I love it when you talk about standing up against what is obviously wrong. It would seem Your sheer hate against the Russians has something to do with it. You may call them the Aggressor and that's ok.But it started as a regional conflict right.

Let's look at it this way from the rest of the worlds eye.It started out as much Russians argue with Russians.Ok if it gets where they need moderators then the European Union with their brightest minds who have been educated across the planet, the oldest and brightest who are in the top positions that any human being could achieve in their lifetime.
Could bring their "Collective Minds" together and solve this regional dispute. And what happened Here comes Yankee Doodle Dandy.To get involved again cause Yankee Doodle pays the bills of Nations who cain't take care of their own selves. So you see Catfish it's Yankee Doodle in Washington DC. America that creates and controls everything that happens on this planet. Don't be pissed at the Russians their just trying to resist Yankee Doodle. And if it comes to fire and brimstone.You have none to blame but the ignorance of the best leaders you voted into power.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by August

The guy is entitled to his opinion. Agree or disagree, that doesn't make him an ******* no matter how you spell it.

This is of course right, point taken.
Thanks Commander Wallace, i was offline right after my post, you essentially made clear what i ran away from

I ran over this Mr. Peterson several times, and while he is good and routinely professional in speaking about all what he calls truth and honesty, it is often rhetorical rubbish. I especially clashed with his imho confused ideas about climate science. He also is no military man, but there a lot of non-military persons who have a better grasp on the situation.

re Gorpet, it is not me that has a "hate" against russians, it is about this invasion, with some of the russian soldiers obviously being poor devils. (though my sympathy is held in check, especially when i hear and read of russian voices supporting the aggressor).
I always was for Russia, for trading, making connections, criticizing the US for their policies after 1989 towards Russia if you read my older postings.
It was a bit hard but this invasion and what becomes known of Putin's cleptocracy and his openly imperial and fascist ideas changed my mind.
We have privately brought some stuff to help Ukraine via Poland to Lwiw, though not ammo or weapons, yet.
I also think chancellor bubble-Olaf Scholz has to go, he was a great admirer of Russia and the GDR in his youth, and he obviously has a lot of friendship left for Russia and Putin's régime, though Putin has nothing to do with communist ideas (though he certainly (ab)uses Rusia's "glorious" communist past to justify his war.) Funny how the far right and left suddenly agrees when it comes to imperial ideas.

[Skybird]

The fascists in the Kremlin claim that the West is trying to destroy and rip apart Russia itself. But truth is that this objective is something that they acchieve to 100% all by themselves. FOCUS writes:
------------------------

Putin has called for partial mobilization. But there are many indications that Russia is deploying a mass army. Will that achieve its goals? No, believe military experts. One historian even believes it will spell the end of Russia as we know it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will send significantly more than just 300,000 men into the Ukraine war. That's the prediction of Torsten Heinrich, a military historian who has studied "partial mobilization" in Russia. "Rather, Russia is deploying a mass army to overrun Ukraine by sheer mass," he writes on Twitter.

Heinrich is puzzled that Putin is not first "sending only what is necessary to stabilize the front" and training the rest well. Instead, he says, there are indications "that Russia simply intends to throw everything it can into uniform to the front. Proper training, even basic training, is being dispensed with."

This coincides with recent reports. The Ukrainian General Staff recently reported that Russia is sending recruits directly to the front without preparation. There are increasing statements from Russia that possibly far more than the 300,000 reservists announced by Defense Minister Shoigu will be drafted. Companies are prophylactically producing an extra 25 million body bags.

But what purpose would a mass mobilization serve? Military expert Brett Friedman analyzes on Twitter that sheer mass has not been winning wars for a long time. "It won't work for the Russians," he writes. "Mass is among the most common war strategies. But putting everyone in uniform provides units, but not capable units."

For a long time, armies have not fought in mass formations, he adds. "It's more about the quality of the troops, the planning, the coordination, the art of warfare," Friedman said. The Russians, once pioneers, have been shown by the Ukrainians what modern warfare means, he said.

Friedman concludes his remarks: "I don't expect 300,000 hastily trained replacements to get the Ukrainians in trouble. It's tragic, but they're walking right into the meat grinder."
"Mobilization is completely disorganized and chaotic"

Defense Minister Shoigu said only reservists with combat experience would be drafted. Experts directly doubted this because there were not enough such men in Russia at all. Now it turns out that there is a cross-section of men being called up, some of them without any previous experience in the army, others old, sick or allegedly exempt students.

Military historian Heinrich analyzes: "Despite months of preparation, the mobilization is practically completely unorganized and chaotic. This indicates a maximum lack of understanding of the situation on the part of the decision-makers." He says it is either a matter of incompetence or a rigid structure in the dictatorship, in which unwelcome news is suppressed because it endangers the progress of the messengers.

Heinrich sees a problem above all for the troops: The morale of the previously deployed troops had already been low. The morale of the units now moving up "will far undercut this. This should lead to massive rates of deserters and surrendering soldiers." Especially as they come with the impression that without mass mobilization, victory can no longer be won against a country like Ukraine.

Heinrich, however, goes a step further and analyzes the impact on Russian society. Many Russian men are currently trying to leave the country. The second brain drain, because already after the invasion of Ukraine some educated Russians went abroad.

Trust in the regime is dwindling. In a country that already has great demographic difficulties, this is a problem. In addition, many young Russians will die, as cannon fodder in Ukraine. Heinrich concludes that the economy will also suffer as potential top performers end up "in coffins or fleeing."

The loss of confidence could also grip minorities in the country who have been loyal to Putin but are now paying the blood toll in this war. "The moment it becomes clear that the majority is purposefully burning the minority for war, without that war being a threat to the minority, secession becomes not only an attractive alternative but a practical necessity," Heinrich writes.

All of this, the moribund economy, collapsing demographics, loss of confidence in the government's legitimacy, plus the broken arms industry and dwindling support among partner countries, all lead to one conclusion, Heinrich says: "This is (at the very least) the end of Russia (as we know it)."

[Rockstar]

Regarding the last video. Seems everyone here isn’t arguing about anything Peterson actually said. I think we are arguing over another fookin’ headline AGAIN.

I wonder if the video was linked directly to the original source “Piers Morgan Uncensored - Jordan Peterson Debates the Psychology of Valdmir Putin”. Would we be talking about that rather than the clickbait headline from SkyNews “Peterson says Putin can’t lose”. weeeee

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:
-------------------------

Monday. September 26, 06:44: Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) still refuses to supply battle tanks to Ukraine. For this restraint, he is criticized not only in Germany, but also abroad. The criticism is particularly harsh from the largest arms supplier to Ukraine, the USA. The renowned newspaper "New York Times" approached Scholz about it - and he reacted stroppy, the newspaper writes. "Several times he insulted journalists for asking these questions," it continues.

When the author of the text quoted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba and wanted to know "what is Berlin afraid of that Kiev is not?", Scholz reacted "irritably," it writes. He then said an oft-heard phrase to justify his strategy: "Leadership doesn't mean doing what others ask you to do." And further, "Leadership means making the right decisions and being very strong. And that's what I do."

"Surprisingly emotional," the "robotic" Scholz also reacted to the question of why Germany still will not spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on military spending in the coming years, as Scholz has announced. When asked this question, Scholz "hissed," "Asking this question is not serious, to be honest."

The text goes on to say that Scholz rejected any suggestion that the U.S. would welcome Germany taking the lead in supplying battle tanks. The journalist further notes that Scholz's reticence was also evident when he refused to comment on a possible end to the war, instead quoting President Biden.
--------------

This sneaky guy is just disgusting with his smug grin. So again my warning: Do not trust the Germans. Not today. Not tomorrow.

[mapuc]

General Staff: Russia sends newly mobilized conscripts directly to frontline.

Conscripts do not undergo any military training before being sent to the war against Ukraine, Ukraine's General Staff said.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...70287406567428

Markus