The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

US and Philippines launch combat drills in disputed South China Sea

American and Filipino forces launched their largest combat exercises for years in a show of allied firepower near the disputed South China Sea that has alarmed Beijing.

The annual exercises by the long-time treaty allies will run until May 10 and involve more than 16,000 of their military personnel, along with more than 250 French and Australian forces.

While the Philippine military maintains that the Balikatan – Tagalog for “shoulder-to-shoulder” – trainings are not directed at a particular country, some of their main conflict scenarios are set in or near the disputed South China Sea, where Chinese and Philippine coast guard and accompanying ships have figured in a series of increasingly tense territorial faceoffs since last year.
In encounters in disputed areas, Chinese coast guard vessels have resorting to water cannons, blocking and other dangerous manoeuvres that have caused injuries to Philippine navy personnel and damaged supply boats.

The Philippine military said a key focus of this year’s drills is territorial defence.

“We’re dead serious about protecting our territory — that’s why we do these Balikatan exercises,” Col Michael Logico, who speaks for the Philippine military on the combat drills, told The Associated Press.

As the disputes between China and the Philippines have escalated, President Joe Biden and his administration has repeatedly warned that the United States is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if it is attacked.

US Marine Lt Gen William Jurney said in the ceremony that the large-scale military exercises will demonstrate that the 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty between the US and the Philippines “is no mere piece of paper”.

Washington lays no claim to the contested waters but has declared that freedom of navigation and overflight and the peaceful resolution of the disputes are in its national interest.

Philippine military chief of staff Gen Romeo Brawner, who opened the exercises in a ceremony, said that as Pacific coastal nations, the United States and the Philippines “understand the importance of maritime cooperation in addressing the complex challenges that threaten peace and security in our region”.

China strongly criticised the exercises, saying the Philippines was “ganging up” with countries from outside Asia in an obvious reference to the United States and its security partners, and warned that the drills could instigate confrontation and undermine regional stability.

The combat drills will include a joint sail by the US, Philippine and French navies in and near disputed waters off the western Philippine province of Palawan, the sinking of a mock enemy ship by combined US and Philippine firepower, and the retaking of an occupied island off the north-western Philippines, according to the Philippine military.

China specifically opposed the transport of a US ground-launched missile system to the northern Philippines ahead of the exercises.

No missile would be fired but the aim was to build familiarity among military participants with the hi-tech weaponry in a tropical setting.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian expressed China’s grave concern over the deployment of the missile system “at China’s doorstep”.

“The US move exacerbates tensions in the region and increases the risk of misjudgement and miscalculation,” he said in response to a question in a news briefing in Beijing last week.

“The Philippines needs to think twice about being a cat’s paw for the US at the expense of its security interests and stop sliding down the wrong path.”

The Biden administration has been strengthening an arc of alliances to better counter China, including in a possible confrontation over Taiwan, an island democracy that Beijing claims as its own.

That dovetails with efforts by the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr to defend its territorial interests by boosting joint military exercises with the US.

He has also allowed rotating batches of American forces to stay in additional Philippine military camps under a 2014 defence pact, including in his country’s north, which lies just a sea border away from Taiwan and southern China.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...3d9e9753&ei=15

[Jimbuna]

China is committed to resolving maritime disputes through talks, official says

QINGDAO, China (Reuters) -China remains committed to resolving maritime disputes with other countries through dialogue but will not allow itself to be "abused," a top military official said at a meeting of senior foreign naval officials in the port city of Qingdao on Monday.

The sea should not be an arena where countries can flex their "gunboat muscles", added Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and China's second-highest-ranking military official.

"Reality has shown that those who make deliberate provocations, stoke tensions, or support one side against another for selfish gains will ultimately only hurt themselves," Zhang said during the opening ceremony of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium at the upscale St Regis hotel.
The comments were an apparent reference to growing tensions in the South China Sea, where Washington treaty ally Manila is in a fraught standoff with Beijing over the strategic waterway, a potential flashpoint for U.S-China relations.

Zhang also told the gathered delegates that "carrying out maritime containment, encirclement and island blockades will only plunge the world into a vortex of division and turbulence."

The event overlaps with annual U.S.-Philippines large-scale joint military drills, which begin on Monday and will be held outside Philippine territorial waters for the first time.

Tensions are particularly high around the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where Manila has accused Beijing of "harassment", including the use of water cannons against Philippine vessels.

The symposium is a rare opportunity for countries with opposing regional interests to exchange views. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Stephen Koehler is attending from the United States. Other delegations include Australia, France, India, Russia and Britain.

The Philippines did not attend despite being a member nation of the forum.

"This is a very good opportunity to hold bilateral talks with each navy - not only on AUKUS, but on broader maritime topics," said Captain Takuo Kobayashi, a senior official with the Japanese naval delegation. "The Chinese Navy are building up their muscles in the South China Sea quickly, so I'm paying a lot of attention to the Chinese Navy's developments."

Participants will hold closed-door talks on topics such as updating the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a set of guidelines meant to de-escalate tensions between militaries at sea.

They will also vote on the creation of a new working group on unmanned systems with the People's Liberation Army Navy as the coordinator, according to the forum agenda.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...2f4199b2&ei=80

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

China is committed to resolving maritime disputes through talks or water cannons, official says

I fixed it a little to make it more accurate.

[ET2SN]

On the one hand, I feel like I'm just stirring the same old .

But, he does make some good points.
If you are loyal to Capitalism, this is the cost of doing business.

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

On the one hand, I feel like I'm just stirring the same old .

But, he does make some good points.
If you are loyal to Capitalism, this is the cost of doing business.

We should have never willingly given up tariffs for income taxes.

[Jimbuna]

China drops Russia to salvage economy as US threatens 'most serious challenge' to trade

China's has suffered a major blow after exports to Russia plunged in March, the first time data showed a decrease year-on-year since the start of the war in Ukraine.

The drop came as Chinese businesses sought to avoid the impact of the secondary sanctions Joe Biden's administration introduced to cripple industries deemed to be helping Russia perpetuate its war efforts.

China has slowly become a pivotal lifeline to Moscow after international business started moving out of Russia in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The two nations have been strengthening their alliance, with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin exchanging visits to their respective capitals over the past year to reiterate their commitment to their partnership.

Trade between Russia and China hit record highs in 2023, with Russian oil imports and Chinese cars. Machinery and electronic exports driving the $240 billion surge.

But the latest data from the General Administration of Customs China (GACC) showed a 15.7 percent drop in trade compared to March 2023.

Last week, the United States last week warned "full sanctions" were on the table for any Chinese business deemed to be providing Russia material and expertise needed to sustain the conflict in Ukraine.

Chinese banks have increasingly restricted Chinese yuan payments to Russian traders, a considerable blow to Moscow which has been relying on the currency to continue trading.

Political analyst Chris Weafer told Newsweek: "The threat of US secondary sanctions is the most serious challenge to bilateral trade since sanctions started and is a direct threat to Russia's economic stability if not addressed within months.

"The political and strategic relationship between Russia and China is too important for both governments not to find a workaround."

During her visit to China last month, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned Beijing businesses would face "significant consequences" if they were found to be helping Russia's war effort.

And Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to renew the warning during his upcoming visit to the Chinese capital later this month.

The mere fact that Blinken is making the trip might be seen by some as encouraging, but ties between Washington and Beijing are tense and the rifts are growing wider.

From Russia and Ukraine to Israel, Iran and the broader Middle East as well as Indo-Pacific and trade issues, the US and China are on a series of collision courses that have sparked fears about military and strategic security as well as international economic stability.

Blinken "will raise clearly and candidly our concerns" during the talks starting Wednesday, a senior State Department official said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...4e690efd&ei=26

[Jimbuna]

China Sees Opportunity in Hungary's EU Council Presidency

China has expressed optimism about Hungary's upcoming presidency of the European Union (EU) Council, hoping it will lead to a more "positive and pragmatic policy towards China."

This sentiment was discussed during a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Hungarian counterpart, Péter Szijjártó, as reported by European Truth.

China's Expectations

During the meeting, Wang Yi praised Hungary for its "perseverance" in being "a force for peace and a factor of stability in Europe." He also commended Hungary's commitment to "deepening cooperation with China."
"The mutually beneficial cooperation between China and Hungary across various fields has yielded fruitful results that not only benefit the two peoples but also convincingly prove that China is an opportunity for Europe, not a challenge," the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the ministerial meeting.

Wang Yi mentioned Hungary's upcoming presidency of the EU Council, expressing hope that Budapest "will contribute to the EU considering China's development in a rational and friendly manner," leading to a more positive approach toward China and strengthening strategic relations between the two sides.

Szijjártó welcomed China's support for global peace and stability, emphasizing that Hungary-China and EU-China relations play a crucial role in promoting sustainable development amid growing international instability.

Challenges Surrounding Hungary's EU Presidency

Despite China's optimism, the European Parliament recently passed a resolution criticizing Hungary's adherence to EU values, highlighting issues that could impact its future EU Council presidency. Concerns were raised about Hungary's approach to human rights, governance, and the rule of law.

Reports suggest that during Hungary's six-month presidency of the EU Council, the country will focus on combating illegal migration and promoting EU integration of the Western Balkans, with limited emphasis on climate issues.

In late December, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Hungary's presidency in the second half of 2024 would take a more "peace-making" approach, with the goal to "occupy Brussels."

Orbán also controversially compared Hungary's EU membership to Soviet occupation, signaling his skepticism toward EU leadership.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...9243c49e&ei=23

[Skybird]

Oh-oh...

https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/ch...m-over-taiwan/

In view of the massive problems that Russia has caused for itself with its war against Ukraine, there was hope that China could relinquish its covetousness towards Taiwan. Xi, however, has only learned that he needs to prepare better.

The fall of Taiwan, which to me is the most likely outcome of a war (say chances are 60-40 or even worse), would be a catalyst dramatically accelerating the fall of the West. Even if Taiwan does not get conquered in full, its economy and industry would be obliterated.

So much for computer chips "made in Taiwan".

Worse it would be if the chip industry ends up in Chinese hands, more or less intact. Thats the worst case scenario. Then they would have the whole world by its balls.



Missiles, missiles, missiles to Taiwan, please. Stockpiling them in amounts so high like the Chinese wall. Not ships and tanks and planes, they all will get picked away by the Chinese, one by one. Missiles of all sorts: AT, AS, AA. Every citizen with a load of missiles in his home, so to speak. A Javelin in every cradle, a Stinger in every cab. And air defences, so tight that it borders hilariousness. The Chinese will bombard the island from a distance like crazy.

And the US better dramatically beefs up its miltary bases' air defences and ammo stores for these in the region.

[em2nought]

Jeez, I really wanted to move to Asia.

Maybe I should look at Paraguay instead, nobody seems to care to bother with them, for now anyway. There's even an interesting little colony of Swiss, Austrians, and Germans that I might fit in with. El Paraíso Verde.

https://paraiso-verde.com/en/el-para...t-of-paraguay/

Maybe I'll move to Asia, but set Paraguay up as my "Plan B" along with
"The Republic of Texas".

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Oh-oh...

https://warontherocks.com/2024/04/ch...m-over-taiwan/

In view of the massive problems that Russia has caused for itself with its war against Ukraine, there was hope that China could relinquish its covetousness towards Taiwan. Xi, however, has only learned that he needs to prepare better.

The fall of Taiwan, which to me is the most likely outcome of a war (say chances are 60-40 or even worse), would be a catalyst dramatically accelerating the fall of the West. Even if Taiwan does not get conquered in full, its economy and industry would be obliterated.

So much for computer chips "made in Taiwan".

Worse it would be if the chip industry ends up in Chinese hands, more or less intact. Thats the worst case scenario. Then they would have the whole world by its balls.



Missiles, missiles, missiles to Taiwan, please. Stockpiling them in amounts so high like the Chinese wall. Not ships and tanks and planes, they all will get picked away by the Chinese, one by one. Missiles of all sorts: AT, AS, AA. Every citizen with a load of missiles in his home, so to speak. A Javelin in every cradle, a Stinger in every cab. And air defences, so tight that it borders hilariousness. The Chinese will bombard the island from a distance like crazy.

And the US better dramatically beefs up its miltary bases' air defences and ammo stores for these in the region.

The invasion of Taiwan wil mainly be a naval, air operation missiles will help but will not decide the outcome. Combined warfare is the answer here make sure that Chinas' invasion force is destroyed before it reaches the beaches.

[Skybird]

No, it will begin with a barrage of missiles and drones and jamming attempts and more missiles to destroy as much of the defences as possible. Maybe with a navel blockade forgoing this, but that is not a must since it would kill the element of surprise. Aircraft will attack, too, if they get through, else: missiles.



An invasion force will start to move only when they see a chance to get enough of it onto the beach to keep their chances. Until then they will bombard Taiwan and will not stop any time soon. Obviously they will bombard with missiles, drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, from air, from land, from ships. The goal is both to reduce defences and to destroy industrial capacity and critical infrastructure.



The attack will start relatively suprisingly.



Taiwan needs air intercept missile to reduce the aerial and missile bombardement, and then needs anti ship missile to reduce the invasion fleet, and then needs ground missiles and Javelin-style missiles and Stinge rmissiles (shoulderpad-style missiles) to deal with whatever makes it onto land.



The numbers are against Taiwa and its allies, if there will be any. Thats why it is not promising to invets ehaiuvl,y into expensive big targets like tanks and ships. Missiles of all sorts and ranges, and drones. But these in abundance. Lessons from Ukraine.


Xi is very well accepting to not wage a war of traditional conquest but a war of subjugation: which could very well be a war of annihilation if resistence is too stiff. And then taking the emptied island and moving conmtinatal Chinese in as settlers. Population exchange - also a form of conquest.

[Jimbuna]

Highly likely

[Dargo]

In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

[mapuc]

My thoughts on this tension between China and USA over Taiwan.

1. Within the furesable future it's not in Chinas interest to invade Taiwan
2. It will be a direct conflict between China and USA where Taiwan is watching from the side
3. Taiwan will as in point 2 be the battleground-Not taking part.
4. The Chinese invasion will set the region on fire.

Markus