Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

A Russian civil war is nothing I care too much for - but only as long as their nukies are safe and secure. Else we may end up drinking more Nuka Cola than is healthy for us. If these weapons get compromised, we may see ourselves in essential need to intervene directly in said civil war, which would be most unpleasant and nothing we can seriously wish for.



Lets hope it gets not this bad. Its only a question of time until some Russian wannabe big man will try to blackmail and intimidate us with right this scenario. It would be good if then we have an answer ready, and must not spend time to think on one.

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Abbas Gallyamov, the former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, believes a military coup in Russia is increasingly likely given the serious Russian losses. Russians would be looking for someone to blame given the sluggish economy and tens of thousands of dead soldiers in Ukraine, Gallyamov told "CNN."

"The Russian economy is deteriorating. The war is lost," he told the U.S. news network. "There are more and more deaths, (...) and Russians will try to find an explanation for this, (...) and will be able to give themselves the answer: 'Well, this is because our country is ruled by an old tyrant, an old dictator,'" Gallyamov said, referring to Putin.

He thinks a military coup is possible in the next twelve months. Then a "hated, unpopular president" would be at the head of the country. "Without a victory over Ukraine, he will have trouble with the Russians," he continues. That is why Gallyamov also expects that Putin could cancel the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024.

-FOCUS-

I fear with the man coming after Puitin it will all become worse. There are several bulls in the ring already, all the time trying to improve their position in their rivalry for power. And none of them is a nice guy, none. Whoever succeeds Putin most likely will gear up the war in a bid to actually stay in power. Else his stay in the top seat will be a short one.

Something to consider. There is nothing to say that if a coup would happen in Russia that whoever replaces " Putrid " isn't considerably worse. It's hard to fathom anyone could be worse than Putrid but it could happen.

[Skybird]

^ I thought I expressed right that!?

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Skybird

^ I thought I expressed right that!?

Pretty much but it's a horrifying thought, nonetheless. As you pointed out, a crazy with nuclear weapons. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[Skybird]

Make madness your best buddy and you will never feel alone in this world again.

[Skybird]

I hate to be Kassandra once again, but - well: its bitter: this is the first time that I read one of the German mainstream media so openly and unsparingly describing the situation: the ukraine is loosing, and its loss is pretty much inevitable, becauue the West fails to deliver what actually is needed in quantity of help. And this article says exactly the same things I posted yesterday. Exactly the same. It's just not enough what the West is doing, not even close to it, and the West is scaring itself off, letting Putin intimidate it. What we do, has not the heavy punch and not the long breath needed. It is not enough.

Die Welt writes:
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Why it is almost impossible that Ukraine will still win

As bitter as it is, a Ukrainian victory is becoming less likely every day. Kiev's army is running out of men and material, the enemy is adjusting better and has huge supplies at its disposal. No wonder Western diplomats are now increasingly talking about ceasefires.

At the beginning of the year, Ukraine was spreading optimism in the terrible war that has been imposed on the country by Russian aggression for almost a year now. This year, declared the head of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, would bring "joy and victory." But how realistic is a Ukrainian victory?

It is almost impossible that Ukraine will emerge victorious from this war. According to the definition of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj, a victory means the reconquest of all occupied territories, including Crimea. But that is impossible from today's perspective and under the given circumstances - by which is meant, above all, the lack of support from the West. Russia currently occupies about 18 percent of Ukrainian territory. This figure is likely to rise rather than fall in the future. Unfortunately.

What are the reasons for Russia's foreseeable success?

First, it has become definitively clear in the debates of recent weeks that the U.S., Germany and other NATO allies are more afraid of the war spreading to NATO territory than they are of the threat to Western security posed by Russia's territorial conquests in Ukraine. The logic of Western decision-makers is that the more combat-ready, lethal, and precise weapons deliveries become, the greater the risk of a "spillover" effect. The West suffers from a kind of self-deterrence and therefore supports Ukraine only in such a way that it does not have to capitulate immediately.

Second, Russia has so far destroyed 60 to 70 percent of the critical infrastructure in Ukraine. It is not foreseeable that Kiev will receive sufficient air defense systems such as Iris-T, Nasams and Patriots from the West to stop the Russian orgy of destruction. On the contrary, the puny deliveries from the West so far are a carte blanche for the Russian armed forces, which, according to Norwegian Chief of General Staff Eirik Kristoffersen, still also have huge arsenals of missiles and drones.

However, Ukraine will be less and less able to repair the destroyed infrastructure - the material for this is becoming increasingly scarce and would have to be supplied from Russia. Without sufficient energy, however, it will become increasingly difficult to supply the people. In addition, the Ukrainian defense industry urgently needs electricity.

Mobilization potential: 30 million

Third, Russia's military is trying to counter Western precision weapons with mass and can draw on sufficient resources to do so. This is especially true in the tank sector. According to the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia should soon have more than 4,000 deployable tanks at its disposal - a crushing mass that not only poses a major risk to the Western Leopard tanks, but also puts Russia in a position to go on the offensive at any time.

Fourth, Ukraine is running out of soldiers as the war drags on. It is already - depending on how you look at it - in at least the eighth wave of mobilization, with men over the age of 60 now being sent to the front. Russia, on the other hand, will soon call up 200,000 fresh forces, and reportedly as many as 500,000 more soldiers could follow in the summer. Moscow has a mobilization potential of about 30 million.

Fifth, Russia is likely to emerge from this war not only as a military victor with territorial gains for the reasons mentioned above, but also as a political victor: Ukraine's economic recovery will be significantly more difficult than the "National Council for the Reconstruction of Ukraine" predicts, according to the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW). Membership in NATO is likely to be ruled out for the foreseeable future following a ceasefire or peace negotiations, and Ukraine's EU accession will - in the best case scenario - take much longer than Kiev is currently demanding.

And what is the current situation in the theater of war? While the West - well observable in the person of Chancellor Olaf Scholz - is incessantly squirming and dithering to keep its own promise to "do everything in our power for Ukraine," Kiev is losing time to finally get out of its positional warfare and go on the offensive.

Russian troops are using this time to dig in, lay minefields, expand positions, and bring in fresh reserve forces and new war materiel to be better equipped to attack and defend in the spring. With the promised deliveries of battle tanks - Ukraine had asked for 300 and is getting only about 130 - Ukraine is unlikely to be able to launch successful counteroffensives at Kreminna and especially Zaporizhzhya to cut off supplies to Russian troops in Crimea.

This is all the more true because for a successful tank attack toward Crimea, Ukraine also needed shorter-range missiles (ATACMS), more armored personnel carriers (100 promised, 500-600 demanded by Kiev), more artillery systems (70 promised, 500 demanded), and fighter jets (zero promised, 180 F16 jets demanded).

Kiev is just running out of time - and the West is watching. Fearful of crossing "red lines" set by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Europe and the U.S. are also doing nothing to disrupt Russian satellite communications, which would massively impair Moscow's offensive capabilities.

The international community is doing a great deal to support Ukraine. But it is still far too little to allow Kiev to assert its legitimate claim to territorial integrity. One can only suspect calculation behind this. Anyone who talks to Western diplomats increasingly hears about fear of escalation, worries about war fatigue in democratic societies, and hopes for an early cease-fire.

And it is precisely this quick cease-fire that the West's involvement now amounts to - tacitly, of course. The result will be an amputated Ukraine.

------------------------------------

That Putin nevertheless is vulnerable now inside his regime and likely will not hold himself forever anymore, offers no solace.

The "amputated Ukraine" will havce lost much of it sheacy industry reigopn in the East, and quite some of its ressources and agricultural lands as well, adding to the damage of those economic potentials the Russiands have bombe dinto oblivion. Even if the Ukraine would "win" the war, it would be in ruins.

And a brutal thing to say, is this: the Ukraine is no NATO member, de facto. Nobody has so far dared ot raise this part of the debate: can a nation not being member of NATO nevertheless demand to enjoy the benefit of article 5 support from NATO? Of course, if treaties and law and order should have any meaning, it cannot. This is brutal to say this clearly, but we may think we have a moral obligation to help (trhen why dont we do it not sufficnetly and only as an alibi...), but a legal obligaiton we certainly have not.

Shall nobody think I like to write this and post this. But its the grim truth. Those few tanks we are sending - will kill many russian tanks and troops, yes. But it will not be relevant in the greater scheme of things. Its to few tanks. Too few of evertyhing.

This all sucks. It sucks to be this weak as we learn currently we are. It makes me sick that Bubble-Olaf already promised the german industry some weeks ago that after the war they can hope that most things will return to business as usual again.

And still I do not see that Eurpeans have started to wake uop in full and start to arm up - for the nextg Russian attacks afetr they are done with Ukraine. Moldavia. Baltic states. It will take them some years, but it will come. The only ones who have understood it and learned from the challenge, are the Poles: they try to arm up like crazy. But they will need many, many, many years.

Germany? So far, total failure again. Our defence budget btw is being reduced this year. REDUCED.


We thought we were playing a round of Golf. We were wrong. Again.



This would not have happened if we would have started earlier with feminist foreign policy.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

A Russian civil war is nothing I care too much for - but only as long as their nukies are safe and secure. Else we may end up drinking more Nuka Cola than is healthy for us. If these weapons get compromised, we may see ourselves in essential need to intervene directly in said civil war, which would be most unpleasant and nothing we can seriously wish for.



Lets hope it gets not this bad. Its only a question of time until some Russian wannabe big man will try to blackmail and intimidate us with right this scenario. It would be good if then we have an answer ready, and must not spend time to think on one.

No doubt a Russian civil war could get a little dicey. Those Panstsir missile systems Russians placed on top buildings not too long probably had more to with concerns over internal threats than it did Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

White House announced new package of military aid to Ukraine, - CNN

The White House announced that the US will soon announce a new package of military aid to Ukraine.

This was reported by the representative of the Biden administration, Olivia Dalton, in a conversation with journalists on "Board Number One", Censor.NET informs with reference to LIGA.

According to Dalton, Washington will soon announce additional military aid to Ukraine. When asked about the possible dispatch of F-16 fighter jets, she repeated Biden's statement that the US does not yet plan to supply the aircraft.

The representative of the Biden administration emphasized that the United States maintains regular contact with Ukraine regarding its military needs and provides multibillion-dollar aid to Ukrainians. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3396906

Biden and Zelensky will discuss Ukraine’s request for weapons

The President of the United States, Joe Biden, said that he plans to discuss with the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky requests regarding weapons.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to France 24.

"We're going to talk (with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - ed.) about Ukraine's latest requests for weapons to defend against Russian aggression," Biden told reporters, speaking the next morning after he answered a resounding "no" to a question about whether he is for sending F-16 fighters to Ukraine.

It will be recalled that Biden previously hinted that the USA would not transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

On January 30, Poland officially announced its readiness to transfer F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, but there are certain conditions for this.

At the same time, French leader Macron allows the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine, stressing that there is nothing prohibited in this. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3396890

Zelensky and Trudeau discussed Ukraine’s needs in armored vehicles, artillery and aviation

Today, January 31, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky had a telephone conversation with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

As Censor.NET informs about this with reference to Zelensky's message.

President Zelensky informed Trudeau in detail about the state of affairs on the front line and Ukraine's defense needs in armored vehicles, artillery, and aviation.

The leaders of Ukraine and Canada also agreed on joint diplomatic steps, in particular regarding the implementation of the Ukrainian peace formula. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3396880

France will hand over 12 more self-propelled guns "Caesar" to Ukraine, - Minister of Defense Lecornu

France will transfer 12 additional Caesar self-propelled guns to Ukraine.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to BFMTV this was announced by the Minister of Defense of France, Sébastien Lecornu.

Also, according to him, the country will send 150 of its soldiers to Poland to train Ukrainian defenders.

By the summer, 2,000 Ukrainian military personnel will undergo training.

The minister specified that the supply of self-propelled guns will be financed within the support fund of 200 million euros, which was opened by the parliament. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3396864

[Jimbuna]

[tonschk]

The zelensky Authoritarian Dictatorship regime is throwing in last teenagers troops to face certain death defending Bakhmut and the Russian Army is currently Crushing the mercenaries Terrorists Criminals from NATO which are Actually terrorists Criminals, from eyewitness testimony here ....

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by tonschk

The zelensky Authoritarian Dictatorship regime .... blah

You are cursed and you know it. Hellfire is getting closer.

[Exocet25fr]

Sorry, but I did'nt find an English translation of the following Videos (natürlich!?)

They are in German and French only!