Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Well then, no surprises here I suppose.

Putin enemy Mikheil Saakashvili is ‘approaching death' after being 'poisoned' in jail.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...dc6e44d3&ei=12

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The ukrainian holdout in Bakmuth is a strategic rather than a a tactical decision. Ukrainian troops are well dug in and there is not much Putin or this Prigozhin can do other than lose soldiers at a rate of 6 to 1 since weeks.
Even at that rate Russia can win when Putin begins to mobilize in Moscow and St. Petersburg, or even goes for a general mobilisation.
However i guess when he does that, it will be his (personal) end.
Which again will not necessarily end the war. The only thing to end it is either Russia or Ukraine winning.

As Gestwa made clear we should do all to make Ukraine win, any other scenario will lead to Russia's next aggression in a few years.
Maybe Georgia will become a problem, maybe China does something.
I would not build on these ideas, in fact the only outcome that really ends the war in Europe will be a crushing defeat for Russia as a military power.
And i do not mean Ukraine winning back their territory.


B.t.w. russian tank and other "hardware" losses are higher than expected:

"The Russian Army Is Running Out Of T-72 Tanks—And Quickly"

" [...] the Russians had 6,900 old T-72s in storage, around a third of which might’ve been recoverable after decades of corrosive exposure to rain, snow and cycles of hot and cold.

The problem, for the Kremlin, is that @partizan_oleg’s February count was off. Double-checking their numbers on Tuesday, @partizan_oleg realized that, in fact, the Russians probably only have 1,500, not 6,900, old T-72s in storage. “And many of them are probably not in good shape,” "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=11f677506099

I never said that all there 10-12 thosuand tanks mothballed are T-72 (they arent, there also are many T-64, T-62 and even T-55), or can all be revived. I said that even if these wrecks must be cannibalised and see 5 tanks used to form one operational and rusty tracked chassis with a cannon turret on it, this nevertheless means they can build for example 2000-2500 tanks from these 10-12 thousand - and these 2000 tanks then must be individually taken down by the ukrainians.

I am in line with Reisner on these number things. And what did he pointed out recently?: We reequip and rebuild the Ukrainian army practically form scratch for the third time currently. We have no more T-72 left to give them, and we do not have sufficient Western tanks in Europe to share with them. And the Ukrainians are running the 16th mobilization wave now. The 16th. In past months they called up men age 50-60. Now even young men who are more child than young man, down to age 16. The Russians however have not even started to fully mobilize!

We all made the mistake to have overestimated the Russians capability. From that error we have fallen to another mistake: now underestimating them.

That offensive the Ukrainians have announced, better runs marvelously well. Else it might have been the last glorious coup they tried in this war. If they get served their rear ends back to them on a silver plate, Western mood and sympathy and motivation to continue with military aid will vanish. It already does right now, but in that case the moving out of Westewrn aid will dramatically accelerate.

The Russians have adapted, and learned, and in many things they perform better than our media report. They now are deep dug in, and have a very nasty artillery wall before their trenches.

This offensive will most likely not go as well as the one at Cherson and Charkiv. The planned third offensive for Melitopol was stopped back then: due to too high losses already back then. The Russian lines now are much stronger than in autumn.

[Jimbuna]

^ Ys, admittedly it is not currently looking good for Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I never said that all there 10-12 thosuand tanks mothballed are T-72, or can all be revived. I said that even if these wrecks must be cannibalised and see 5 tanks used to form one operaiton arusty tracked chasis with a cannon turret on it, this nevertehless emans they cna build for exmaple 2000-2500 tanks from these 10-12 thousand - and these 2000 tanks then must be individually taken down by the ukrainians.



I am in line with Reisner on these number things. And what did he pointed out recently?: We reequip and rebuild the Ukrainian army practically form scratch for the third time currently. We have no more T-72 left to give them, and we do not have sufficient Western tanks inEurope to share with them. And the Ukrainians are running the 16th mobization wave now. The 16th. In past months they called up men age 50-60. Now even young men who are more child than young man, down to age 16. The Russians however have not even started to fully mobilize!


We all made the mistake to have overestimated the Russians capability. From that error we have fallen to another mistake: now underestimating them.



That offensive the Ukrainians have announced better runs marvelously well. Else it might have been the last glorious coup they tried in this war. If they get served their rear ends back top them on a silver plate, Western mood and sympathy and motivation to continue with military aid will vanish. It already does right now, but in that case will dramatically accelerate.

The Russians have adapted, and learned, and in many things they perform better than our media report. They now are deep dug in, and have a very nasty artillery wall before their trenches.


This offensive will most likely not go as well as the one at Cherson and Charkiv. The planned third offensive for Melitopol was stopped back then: due to too high losses already back then.The Russian lines now are much stronger than in autumn.

It is more one out of 10 mothballed tanks that are more or less operational, with others lacking critical components: some tanks are even missing their engines. It is not that corruption is a new concept in Russia during the USSR the indifference to common property and petty theft from the workplace, either for personal use or for profit, was high. A line from a popular song, "Everything belongs to the kolkhoz, everything belongs to me" ("всё теперь колхозное, всё теперь моё" / vsyo teperь kolkhoznoe, vsyo teperь moyo), meaning that people on collective farms treasured all common property as their own, was sometimes used ironically to refer to instances of petty theft: "Take from the plant every nail, you are the owner here, not a guest" ("Тащи с завода каждый гвоздь - ты здесь хозяин, а не гость" / taschi s zavoda kazhdyj gvozd' - ty zdes' hozyain, a ne gost'). This has not changed, think it is become a bigger problem since Putin came to power.

[Dargo]

In the news Nov 29, 2016

Russia Preparing to Return 3,000 Older Tanks Into Service

It's a lot less impressive than it sounds.

The Russian government plans to refurbish up to 3,000 T-80 main battle tanks and return them to service with the Russian Army. The move may sound impressive, but it's actually a sign of Russia's diminishing economic and military power. According to the Telegraph, the older T-80 tanks will be taken out of mothballs and modernized to a new T-80BV standard. The work will be done by Omsktransmash, a state-owned tank design and engineering facility in the Siberian city of Omsk. The T-80 main battle tank was originally produced by the Soviet Union between 1976 and 1992. Unlike the USSR's other tank, the T-72, the T-80 was powered by a gas turbine engine. This provided more power than the T-72's diesel engine, but at the expense of high fuel consumption, which stresses supply lines.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the lion's share of the T-80 tanks. But Moscow decided to abandon the T-80 line in favor of the T-72 line, which eventually became the T-90, Russia's current frontline tank. It's supposed to be replaced eventually by the brand-new T-14 Armata. The T-80 is virtually identical to the T-72, aside from an unreliable, fuel-guzzling engine. But that key difference was enough to doom most T-80s to an early retirement. The tanks that will receive upgrades have been sitting around for several years, and the Russian military is not particularly known for carefully mothballing older equipment.

According to Jane's, the T-80BV upgrade will consist of the Sonsa-U fire control system, an updated "energy generator" (whatever that is) and engine starter, and explosive reactive armor. Considering that Russia wanted to improve the T-80 in 2002 with a new main gun, ammunition, and a new fighting compartment for the crew, the BV upgrades are modest indeed. The T-80BVs will still be markedly inferior to NATO tanks like the M1A2 Abrams, Leopard 2A7, and Challenger 2. The Russian government has stated the upgraded T-80BVs "will be suitable for the climatic conditions of the Arctic, the Far East, and Siberia." That's true enough—gas turbine tank engines do better in cold weather than diesel engines. But it's also true that those military districts are relatively quiet areas, with the possible exception of the border with Norway, and a safe distance from NATO armor.

That Russia is even pondering returning the T-80 to service is an indicator of plans gone awry. Russia should be producing more T-14 Armatas rather than dusting off old tanks, but the country's defense budget is set to drop by 12 percent in 2017, a percentage much worse than the 2013 budget sequestration that hobbled the U.S. Department of Defense. While Russia probably will buy the Armata in small numbers to keep the production line open until the economy improves, the lion's share of the "new" Russian tanks for the near future will be old ones.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-into-service/

I did not see that many T-80's in Ukraine, so where (in whose pocket) is that investment gone. Wars are not only won on the battleground, economics is one of its key factor.

[Jimbuna]

It is now being reported that Putin is trying to deliberately expend both elite and convict Wagner forces in Bakhmut in an effort to weaken [Yevgeny] Prigozhin and derail his ambitions for greater influence in the Kremlin.

It can only get better.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...90ec8351&ei=10

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

In the news Nov 29, 2016

Russia Preparing to Return 3,000 Older Tanks Into Service

It's a lot less impressive than it sounds.

The Russian government plans to refurbish up to 3,000 T-80 main battle tanks and return them to service with the Russian Army. The move may sound impressive, but it's actually a sign of Russia's diminishing economic and military power. According to the Telegraph, the older T-80 tanks will be taken out of mothballs and modernized to a new T-80BV standard. The work will be done by Omsktransmash, a state-owned tank design and engineering facility in the Siberian city of Omsk. The T-80 main battle tank was originally produced by the Soviet Union between 1976 and 1992. Unlike the USSR's other tank, the T-72, the T-80 was powered by a gas turbine engine. This provided more power than the T-72's diesel engine, but at the expense of high fuel consumption, which stresses supply lines.

Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the lion's share of the T-80 tanks. But Moscow decided to abandon the T-80 line in favor of the T-72 line, which eventually became the T-90, Russia's current frontline tank. It's supposed to be replaced eventually by the brand-new T-14 Armata. The T-80 is virtually identical to the T-72, aside from an unreliable, fuel-guzzling engine. But that key difference was enough to doom most T-80s to an early retirement. The tanks that will receive upgrades have been sitting around for several years, and the Russian military is not particularly known for carefully mothballing older equipment.

According to Jane's, the T-80BV upgrade will consist of the Sonsa-U fire control system, an updated "energy generator" (whatever that is) and engine starter, and explosive reactive armor. Considering that Russia wanted to improve the T-80 in 2002 with a new main gun, ammunition, and a new fighting compartment for the crew, the BV upgrades are modest indeed. The T-80BVs will still be markedly inferior to NATO tanks like the M1A2 Abrams, Leopard 2A7, and Challenger 2. The Russian government has stated the upgraded T-80BVs "will be suitable for the climatic conditions of the Arctic, the Far East, and Siberia." That's true enough—gas turbine tank engines do better in cold weather than diesel engines. But it's also true that those military districts are relatively quiet areas, with the possible exception of the border with Norway, and a safe distance from NATO armor.

That Russia is even pondering returning the T-80 to service is an indicator of plans gone awry. Russia should be producing more T-14 Armatas rather than dusting off old tanks, but the country's defense budget is set to drop by 12 percent in 2017, a percentage much worse than the 2013 budget sequestration that hobbled the U.S. Department of Defense. While Russia probably will buy the Armata in small numbers to keep the production line open until the economy improves, the lion's share of the "new" Russian tanks for the near future will be old ones.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...-into-service/

I did not see that many T-80's in Ukraine, so where (in whose pocket) is that investment gone. Wars are not only won on the battleground, economics is one of its key factor.

And if it were T-64, they still would need to be fought down one by one.

Russia also builds new T-90s, with a speed of 20 per week. Their tank factories are on fullscale war production, running 3 shifts per day.

A Javelin that kills one tank is a Javalin that cannot kill another one.

[Skybird]

Es ist nicht zu fassen... 13 months of war, and still no orders placed. Der Spiegel writes:
--------------------------
For months, reports have been circulating about the looming bottlenecks in the supply of ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces. But in the opinion of the German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, far too little has happened since then. Company CEO Armin Papperger has now formulated criticism of Kiev's European partner governments - and called for clear announcements and planning certainty. "I need orders," the CEO said in an interview with the Bloomberg news agency. "Without orders, I produce nothing". If there is an acute shortage of ammunition, he said, it "won't be because of the industry."

According to Papperger, Rheinmetall will produce ammunition at only about two-thirds of its capacity this year because of the slow completion of orders. In addition, the amount of ammunition Ukraine has recently asked the European Union for would be difficult to produce, according to the manager. To do so, capacity in Europe would have to be "doubled again."

Rheinmetall plans to increase its ammunition production capacity over the next two years, at its Varpalota site in Hungary and with a new powder plant in Saxony, the CEO added. The company expects the Saxon state government to approve plans for the factory, which would involve an investment of 700 to 800 million euros, in the next few weeks. Due to the sluggish order trend, Rheinmetall has also not yet fully ramped up production of tank shells, which are used in most U.S. and European main battle tanks, Papperger said.
-----------------------

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Poland are stating they can provide about thirty MiG-29 to Ukraine in about four to six weeks time.

[Skybird]

The Ukraine cannot be uninterested in the American elections.



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...rest-rcna74795

[Jimbuna]

JUST IN...

Russian fighter jet collides with US surveillance drone over Black Sea, forcing US to bring down drone, US military says

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

JUST IN...

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to the US Air Force.

The Reaper drone and two SU-27 Flanker jets were operating over international waters over the Black Sea when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel in front of the unmanned drone, according to the official. One of the jets then damaged the propeller of the Reaper, which is mounted on the rear of the drone, the official said. The damage to the propeller forced the US to bring down the Reaper in international waters in the Black Sea.

The incident marks the first time Russian and US military aircraft have come into direct contact since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago and is likely to increase tensions between the two nations, with the US Air Force calling Russia’s actions “reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional.”

“At approximately 7:03 AM (CET), one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters. Several times before the collision, the Su-27s dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless, environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner. This incident demonstrates a lack of competence in addition to being unsafe and unprofessional,” US Air Force Gen. James B.Hecker, commander, US Air Forces Europe and Air Forces Africa said in the statement.

President Joe Biden was briefed on the incident by national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Tuesday morning, according to National Security Council communications coordinator John Kirby.

Kirby He said it was “not uncommon” for Russian aircraft to intercept US aircraft over the Black Sea, and said there had been other intercepts in recent weeks.

But he said the episode Tuesday was unique in how “unsafe, unprofessional and reckless” the Russian actions were.

CNN has asked the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.

Russian and US aircraft have operated over the Black Sea during the course of the Ukraine war, but this is the first known such interaction, a potentially dangerous escalation at a critical time in the fighting.

The US has been operating Reaper drones over the Black Sea since before the beginning of the war, using the spy drones to monitor the area. Reaper drones can fly as high as 50,000 feet, according to the Air Force, and they have sensors and capabilities to gather intelligence and perform reconnaissance for extended periods of time, making it an ideal platform to track movements on the battlefield and in the Black Sea. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/p...sea/index.html

[Dargo]

Netherlands will give Ukraine minesweepers and drone detection systems, Dutch defense minister says

The Netherlands will send two minesweepers to Ukraine, along with drone detection radar systems and so-called M3 ferrying and bridge building systems, according to Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren.

In a statement Tuesday, the Dutch Defense Ministry outlined its plans to work with Belgium and possibly other allied countries to train Ukrainian forces in the use of the minesweepers.

Supplying minesweepers to Ukraine will “contribute to Black Sea safety, Europe's security and global food security," Ollongren said.

The defense minister spent the past few days in Ukraine visiting the southern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa alongside her Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksiy Reznikov.

The two ministers discussed the strengthening of coastal defenses, the importance of maritime safety and protecting grain ships, according to the statement.

Ollongren highlighted the efforts of the Ukrainian forces, saying that although the Netherlands can provide Ukraine with “the material,” it is the Ukrainians themselves who are fighting “for every centimeter of [their] land.” https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...8a6b4926e490b4