AMD Future (Not good)

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 01:39 AM

Let's be blunt. The glory days of AMD are long over. They got a great reprieve with their 64 bit tech but it got slaughtered by Intel's dual cores.

The tris and quads are generating cash but not nearly enough. And people are sticking with existing builds more with this economy.

What is not helping them (Tho it is great for budget builders like me) is obvious fab failure rates resulting in them having to open a new line of Kuma class CPUs with 2 cores disabled.

But I think several upcoming techs by Intel and Nvidia are going to force it to consider being merged.

#1 New Intel Graphics. Sick of having their IGPs being called useless. They are getting new versions out that will compete with weaker models of the ATI mobo IGPs. All of their boards in the future will be able to play Blu ray with no additional card. Robbing ATI of a badly needed source of income.

#2 http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/19/i...will-robinson/

This is HUGE loss for AMD. This was supposed to fill a gap and get them some serious mula. Now at best it will be split.

By far the worst tho will be this. #3 http://www.techpowerup.com/82322/GT3...hitecture.html

Unless they have somthing that can answer that with a budget build. Their graphics sales will plummet.

While this will mean huge savings for those who want to graduly update their computers. It will mean huge losses for AMD.

So what is going to happen?

Well simply put if AMD dies Intel will have nobody but Nvidia to compete with and Nvidia does not produce X86 cores.

In my view by 2012 after a congressional hearing or two. AMD will be allowed to be Merged into IBM. Part of the deal will likely be to put ATI back on sale. It is the ONLY way to put enough pressure on Intel to innovate so we dont end up using bargain bin Kuma CPUs in 2015.

BTW this is just a discussion post. This is not saying you need to think that AMD is not going to support you in the future. AMD still is kicking and will continue to be the leader in sub 400 dollar builds.

nikimcbee · 01-20-09, 02:04 AM

I believe AMD, in a cost saving move, is going fab-less. I think that is the new trend in the semiconductor industry, as several RAM companies are doing this ( Meaning; We design it, somebody else builds it) I think AMDs only fabs are in Germany and New york(?) AMD doesn't have the capital or manufacturing capacity to keep up with intel's production capabilities.

The biggest dissapointment I have with AMD is that they don't advertise. (I've talked with AMD people about this, and the short answer is: no money). They really caught intel with their pants down with their Athlon chip, but they weren't able to capitalize on that succuess, for whatever reason.

I am intreged by your IBM~AMD merger idea. I wonder how intel would fight it, in regards to practically being a monopoly (on the processor market)?

@ Zachster, have you been following AMD's anti-trust lawsuit? I haven't heard any news on it lately.

nikimcbee · 01-20-09, 02:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

I believe AMD, in a cost saving move, is going fab-less. I think that is the new trend in the semiconductor industry, as several RAM companies are doing this ( Meaning; We design it, somebody else builds it) I think AMDs only fabs are in Germany and New york(?) AMD doesn't have the capital or manufacturing capacity to keep up with intel's production capabilities.

The biggest dissapointment I have with AMD is that they don't advertise. (I've talked with AMD people about this, and the short answer is: no money). They really caught intel with their pants down with their Athlon chip, but they weren't able to capitalize on that succuess, for whatever reason.

I am intreged by your IBM~AMD merger idea. I wonder how intel would fight it, in regards to practically being a monopoly (on the processor market)?

@ Zachster, have you been following AMD's anti-trust lawsuit? I haven't heard any news on it lately.

Here's the lawsuit:
http://breakfree.amd.com/en-us/default.aspx

nikimcbee · 01-20-09, 02:21 AM

And speaking of dying!
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/amd_news.html

These guy's stock has totally tanked! It's hard to believe, just a few years ago, it was higher than intel's!

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

And speaking of dying!
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/amd_news.html

These guy's stock has totally tanked! It's hard to believe, just a few years ago, it was higher than intel's!

Well everyone is suffering due to people being pretty tight with wallets these days.

However, The blows are coming on strong. Mainly due to AMD completely unable to sell any CPU over 300USD in any quantity. They dont have the many Intel suckers willing to pay a thousand dollars for an unlocked 3 GHz quad.

nikimcbee · 01-20-09, 02:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nikimcbee

And speaking of dying!
http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/amd_news.html

These guy's stock has totally tanked! It's hard to believe, just a few years ago, it was higher than intel's!

ofcourse, if AMD rebounds, this is the time to buy! Go buy a $100 worth of shares.:hmm:

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 02:35 AM

Yes if you want a nice little short term gain go for it!

I personally wont. I just don't see it gaining ground without going for something really really huge (Like a jump to 20-10nm) Such a feat requires HUGE amounts of money that not even IBM has.

They are going to be slaughtered by Nvidia's new platform for graphics. And if Intel gets an excuse to dramatically lower Core i7? Curtains for AMD...

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 02:22 AM

Its a big lawsuit but will not do much to break the stranglehold of tech advances Intel is pouring on.

Intel can't fight an ATI IBM merger. As IBM would lose ALOT ALOT ALOT of money in the process. For the first 2 years IBM would just slap some CELL and POWER line advancements on Athlon and Phenom Chips and ship them cheaply to gain money to pay for the merger.

Intel may complain but that will be drowned out by people having to pay 1500 USD for Core i7 whatever builds by then.

Core I7 prices are insane.

CaptainHaplo · 01-20-09, 09:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zachstar

Well simply put if AMD dies Intel will have nobody but Nvidia to compete with and Nvidia does not produce X86 cores.

Intel bought with Nvidia - so Nvidia is in no way a competitor. The Nvidia brand is owned by Intel, though they left the name intact as its brand is valuable to them.

I will tell you this, don't think that Intel is going to squeeze out AMD. If AMD goes under - it won't be due to Intel, but rather pure market conditions.

longam · 01-20-09, 12:56 PM

[quote=CaptainHaplo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zachstar

I will tell you this, don't think that Intel is going to squeeze out AMD. If AMD goes under - it won't be due to Intel, but rather pure market conditions.

I have to agree, and lets face it the majority of PC owners don't build their own systems, they buy pre built. And the main system they buy will be Dell which uses Intel.

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 03:23 PM

Intel does not own Nvidia in the least bit.

You are think about AMD owning ATI.

And yes if AMD does go down it will be because they were unable to beat Intel with technology.

AVGWarhawk · 01-20-09, 04:40 PM

You have to understand that competition is good. AMD will have to pull on the boots and start walking the walk. I buy AMD purely on my experience I have had with AMD and price, although not the biggest factor, does play a roll. AMD will survive if it can get through the tough economic times. Many companies are facing the same reality. But, as history shows, a better company will take it's place.

Zachstar · 01-20-09, 05:40 PM

The only better company I can think of is IBM to take its place.

IBM used to make a bunch of x86 CPUs but got out mostly when it looked like the future was with POWER.

But it would suck because then Intel would be at risk of being crushed by IBM might.

01-20-09, 02:21 AM	#4
nikimcbee Fleet Admiral Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Patroling the Slot. Posts: 17,925 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	And speaking of dying! http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/amd_news.html These guy's stock has totally tanked! It's hard to believe, just a few years ago, it was higher than intel's! __________________

01-20-09, 02:35 AM	#7
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	Yes if you want a nice little short term gain go for it! I personally wont. I just don't see it gaining ground without going for something really really huge (Like a jump to 20-10nm) Such a feat requires HUGE amounts of money that not even IBM has. They are going to be slaughtered by Nvidia's new platform for graphics. And if Intel gets an excuse to dramatically lower Core i7? Curtains for AMD... __________________

01-20-09, 02:22 AM	#8
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	Its a big lawsuit but will not do much to break the stranglehold of tech advances Intel is pouring on. Intel can't fight an ATI IBM merger. As IBM would lose ALOT ALOT ALOT of money in the process. For the first 2 years IBM would just slap some CELL and POWER line advancements on Athlon and Phenom Chips and ship them cheaply to gain money to pay for the merger. Intel may complain but that will be drowned out by people having to pay 1500 USD for Core i7 whatever builds by then. Core I7 prices are insane. __________________

01-20-09, 03:23 PM	#11
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	Intel does not own Nvidia in the least bit. You are think about AMD owning ATI. And yes if AMD does go down it will be because they were unable to beat Intel with technology. __________________

01-20-09, 04:40 PM	#12
AVGWarhawk Lucky Jack Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: In a 1954 Buick. Posts: 27,343 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	You have to understand that competition is good. AMD will have to pull on the boots and start walking the walk. I buy AMD purely on my experience I have had with AMD and price, although not the biggest factor, does play a roll. AMD will survive if it can get through the tough economic times. Many companies are facing the same reality. But, as history shows, a better company will take it's place. __________________ “You're painfully alive in a drugged and dying culture.” ― Richard Yates, Revolutionary Road

01-20-09, 01:39 AM	#1
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	AMD Future (Not good) Let's be blunt. The glory days of AMD are long over. They got a great reprieve with their 64 bit tech but it got slaughtered by Intel's dual cores. The tris and quads are generating cash but not nearly enough. And people are sticking with existing builds more with this economy. What is not helping them (Tho it is great for budget builders like me) is obvious fab failure rates resulting in them having to open a new line of Kuma class CPUs with 2 cores disabled. But I think several upcoming techs by Intel and Nvidia are going to force it to consider being merged. #1 New Intel Graphics. Sick of having their IGPs being called useless. They are getting new versions out that will compete with weaker models of the ATI mobo IGPs. All of their boards in the future will be able to play Blu ray with no additional card. Robbing ATI of a badly needed source of income. #2 http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/19/i...will-robinson/ This is HUGE loss for AMD. This was supposed to fill a gap and get them some serious mula. Now at best it will be split. By far the worst tho will be this. #3 http://www.techpowerup.com/82322/GT3...hitecture.html Unless they have somthing that can answer that with a budget build. Their graphics sales will plummet. While this will mean huge savings for those who want to graduly update their computers. It will mean huge losses for AMD. So what is going to happen? Well simply put if AMD dies Intel will have nobody but Nvidia to compete with and Nvidia does not produce X86 cores. In my view by 2012 after a congressional hearing or two. AMD will be allowed to be Merged into IBM. Part of the deal will likely be to put ATI back on sale. It is the ONLY way to put enough pressure on Intel to innovate so we dont end up using bargain bin Kuma CPUs in 2015. BTW this is just a discussion post. This is not saying you need to think that AMD is not going to support you in the future. AMD still is kicking and will continue to be the leader in sub 400 dollar builds. __________________

01-20-09, 02:04 AM	#2
nikimcbee Fleet Admiral Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Patroling the Slot. Posts: 17,925 Downloads: 90 Uploads: 0	I believe AMD, in a cost saving move, is going fab-less. I think that is the new trend in the semiconductor industry, as several RAM companies are doing this ( Meaning; We design it, somebody else builds it) I think AMDs only fabs are in Germany and New york(?) AMD doesn't have the capital or manufacturing capacity to keep up with intel's production capabilities. The biggest dissapointment I have with AMD is that they don't advertise. (I've talked with AMD people about this, and the short answer is: no money). They really caught intel with their pants down with their Athlon chip, but they weren't able to capitalize on that succuess, for whatever reason. I am intreged by your IBM~AMD merger idea. I wonder how intel would fight it, in regards to practically being a monopoly (on the processor market)? @ Zachster, have you been following AMD's anti-trust lawsuit? I haven't heard any news on it lately. __________________

01-20-09, 05:40 PM	#13
Zachstar Sea Lord Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: Shreveport, Louisiana Posts: 1,956 Downloads: 13 Uploads: 0	The only better company I can think of is IBM to take its place. IBM used to make a bunch of x86 CPUs but got out mostly when it looked like the future was with POWER. But it would suck because then Intel would be at risk of being crushed by IBM might. __________________