Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

A drone attack should have spoiled fleet day in Sewastopol, Russia is snapped for having gotten its fleet staff being bombed. What do they think? That their military is immune and untouchable for Ukrianioan defenders of their territories? Every Russian unit and uniform is a valid target, everywhere.

I'm hoping for the chance that the Ukrainians could indeed break through at Cherson, and moving further south, to the coast. Then they have the harbour of Sewastopol in reach of their Harpoons, although the missiles possibly must stretch their legs. The bridge of Kertch as well. And who says that Western deliveries leave it to Harpoons.

Because, of course, all Russian units anywhwere on the globe are legitimate targets for Ukrainian counterstrikes. The only question is the reach of Ukrainian forces and agents.

[Jimbuna]

Southern Ukraine city Mykolaiv heavily shelled by Russians

Ukraine says the southern city of Mykolaiv suffered "massive" Russian bombardment overnight.

One of Ukraine's richest men, Oleksiy Vadatursky, and his wife Raisa were killed, the governor said.

Mr Vadatursky, 74, owned Nibulon, a major agricultural firm.

The mayor of the city called the shelling "probably the strongest of all time". There was damage to a hotel, a sports complex, two schools and a service station, as well as homes.

Mykolaiv is on the main route to Odesa, Ukraine's main port, and has been hit repeatedly.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62367356

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Navy of AFU on alleged attack of Ukrainian drone on headquarters of Black Sea Fleet of Russian Federation in Sevastopol: Russian Federation recognizes its anti-aircraft defense as incapacitated and questions existence of Crimean bridge

With statements about the alleged attack of a Ukrainian drone on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in occupied Sevastopol, Russia recognizes its anti-aircraft defense as incapacitated, and casts even greater doubt on the existence of the Crimean bridge.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"The Russians in Crimea are afraid of the AFU. A clear example of this is the news from the Russian media! It is about the fact that in Sevastopol, which is temporarily occupied by the enemy, one of the military units of the invader was attacked by an apparently Ukrainian drone. According to the enemy's version, an unidentified flying object flew this morning to the territory of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation and apparently injured 5 people," the message reads.

As noted later, in reality, the enemy did not risk holding the day of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, but in order not to be ashamed again in front of the whole world, fearing the Armed Forces of Ukraine, invented an excuse to cancel the events on the occasion of the so-called holiday.

"With such statements, the enemy recognizes its anti-aircraft defense as ineffective, and casts even greater doubt on the existence of the Crimean bridge. We remind you that the Defense Forces of Ukraine are taking measures to liberate our occupied territories, using available weapons for this purpose. Our targets are exclusively military facilities of the Russian Federation. "We do not launch strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation. Crimea is Ukraine," the Navy added.

It will be recalled that an unknown object allegedly flew to the yard of the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in occupied Sevastopol in the morning of July 31.

Serhii Bratchuk, the spokesman of Odesa RMA, called this message an outright provocation.
https://censor.net/en/news/3357634/n...ian_federation

[Jimbuna]

First caravan with Ukrainian grain, which will consist of 16 vessels, may arrive in Istanbul as early as August 3, - Turkish media

The first caravan with Ukrainian grain may arrive at the port of Istanbul as early as August 3. After that, the food will go to Somalia.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to CNN Turk.

According to the publication, the caravan will consist of 16 vessels. The first stop will be Istanbul. Ships will be tracked by drones and satellites.

It is expected that the first grain exported from Ukraine will be sent to African countries, in particular to Somalia. The way there, according to UN forecasts, will take about one and a half months.

[Bilge_Rat]

Interesting analysis on how the Russians are using UAVs and their heavy artillery to counter the advanced systems supplied to Ukraine. HIMARS and other systems are very good, but there are not enough of them to make a difference. Based on other reports, Russian artillery apparently outnumbers the Ukrainians by a factor of 5-10x depending on the sector.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-fbaa25166f0e

Q: ….related to the issue above (i.e. to the fact that Ukrainians still have far too few advanced multiple rocket launchers and artillery pieces) is something that’s, actually, not a question, but an issue several Ukrainian contacts have requested me to address. That’s the topic of the most powerful Russian weapon of the last four months: the combination of Orlan-10 UAVs and MSTA-S self-propelled howitzers calibre 152mm.

Fact is: since they have withdrawn from northern Ukraine and focused on the Donbass and Kherson, and since they’re ‘fighting frontally’, the Russians are deploying large numbers of Orlan-10 UAVs for reconnaissance. In turn, these are connected to their artillery with help of what’s called an ‘automatic tactical management system’. Called USS TZ, the latter is, essentially, very similar to the Ukrainian Kropyva ATMS, described in an earlier feature, nearly two months ago.

Point is: contrary to the situation during the first 2–3 months of this war, Russians are meanwhile ‘printing’ Orlan-10. Manufacturing them in huge numbers. They can do so because they are made of commercial parts easily obtained from the West and the PR China. They are deploying them in large concentrations over relatively limited combat zones to track down Ukrainian artillery in particular.

This is resulting in two major problems for Ukrainians.

The first is that they actually have no weapons to counter Orlan-10s (photo below). Sure, MANPADs — whether Martlet, or Stinger and Strela — are effective, but there are simply not enough of them. Light anti-aircraft guns are too short-ranged (Orlan-10s are mostly flying above the 1,000–1,500-metre-altitude they can reach), and there are not enough of them around, either.

The second is that the Russians not only have lots of Orlan-10s, but even more of their MSTA-S howitzers, and then at least as many BM-27 Uragan and BM-30 Smerch multiple rocket launchers. This ‘combination’ is making the situation so bad that, on average, an Ukrainian artillery team has something like 1 minute — between 46 and 60 seconds, to be more specific — from the moment it positions its towed M777, or self-propelled Caesar, or Krab, or M109, and fires the first shell, until the Russians start hitting back. Arguably, Russian artillery is not particularly precise, but it’s firing back with so many shells, that ‘at least one of them is going to cause some damage’. And that’s happening too often.

Pay attention: not only that Ukrainians have no means to counter this combination, NATO has none, either. Sure, NATO would try to counter with electronic warfare systems, and ‘anti-UAV rifles’ and similar wizardry, but it would simply not be enough — because of sheer numbers of Orlan-10s and Russian artillery pieces.

This is why there is a serious need for an urgent solution. Not only that Ukrainians need lots of artillery, and lots of electronic warfare systems, but the entire NATO needs a ‘solution’ at least for that ‘Orlan-issue’. Since I doubt anybody can pack an anti-aircraft gun calibre 57–60mm (because this would offer a range sufficient to combat Orlans flying at 2,000–3,000 metres altitude) to a platform the size of Toyota Hilux (because combating Orlan-10 needs a platform that can move at high speed, while a gun calibre 57–60mm is too big and too heavy) — any time soon, and then in anything like sufficient numbers… this means that not only Ukrainians, but the entire West needs a different solution.

[Skybird]

^ There are also Ukrainian field commanders who insist on that the Western systems acchieved regional compensation for the Russian superior numbers. They talk of artillery parity in their sectors. The Russians still fire more rounds, but the ukrainian rounds hit harder and much more precise. Accoriding to a text with interviews of field commanders I red somewhere a few days ago.
Also, aretillry can not fire if it ha sno ammo, and the ukrainians currently pinpoint ammo depots of the Russians with HIMARS in significant quantities.

I am cautiously, very cautiously optimistic as long as the Western supply in ammo and heavy weapons does not stop. And there lies the crux. I am not optimistic at all that Western motivation to continue that support will live on over months and months to come.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I am cautiously, very cautiously optimistic as long as the Western supply in ammo and heavy weapons does not stop. And there lies the crux. I am not optimistic at all that Western motivation to continue that support will live on over months and months to come.

...which could be if we get a harsh winter and Russia Close or lower the gas and oil flow to Europe.

Well I don't know how far they have come with the repair of the Danish gas field Tyra. If they fix the repair and maintenance If they fix it before winter then Denmark is self supplying with gas and can even sell.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Largest number of cases of sexual violence by Russian military were recorded in Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, - National Police

The National Police is investigating 21 criminal cases of sexual violence by the occupiers. In total, more than 50 statements were written to the police, but this picture is incomplete.

Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Kateryna Pavlichenko said this during the telethon, Censor.NET reports with reference to UP.

"This topic is very latent, because people who have experienced sexual violence under occupation usually do not want to talk about it, we should not force them to do so under any circumstances.

The activities of the National Police are aimed at recording, investigating and providing comprehensive assistance to people affected by these crimes as much as possible," she said.

Most cases of sexual violence were recorded in Kyiv region, Sumy region, and Chernihiv region.

According to her, the Office of the Prosecutor General and the Security Service of Ukraine deal separately with cases of sexual violence.

Pavlichenko said that at the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, mobile police teams were created to detect cases of sexual violence. These groups work in the de-occupied territories.

We would like to remind you that the facts of rape committed by Russian soldiers on the territory of Ukraine are being investigated as war crimes.

The UN is considering more than 150 appeals regarding rapes committed by the Russians during the war in Ukraine.
https://censor.net/en/news/3357668/l..._and_chernihiv

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

A drone attack should have spoiled fleet day in Sewastopol, Russia is snapped for having gotten its fleet staff being bombed. What do they think? That their military is immune and untouchable for Ukrianioan defenders of their territories? Every Russian unit and uniform is a valid target, everywhere.

I'm hoping for the chance that the Ukrainians could indeed break through at Cherson, and moving further south, to the coast. Then they have the harbour of Sewastopol in reach of their Harpoons, although the missiles possibly must stretch their legs. The bridge of Kertch as well. And who says that Western deliveries leave it to Harpoons.

Because, of course, all Russian units anywhwere on the globe are legitimate targets for Ukrainian counterstrikes. The only question is the reach of Ukrainian forces and agents.

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, on the night of Friday to Saturday, a high-precision HIMARS strike destroyed a train of more than 40 wagons, which arrived from Crimea with manpower, equipment and ammunition at the Brilevka railway station, Kherson region. The results of the HIMARS strike on Brilevka, Kherson region: 80 dead and 200 wounded Russian servicemen transferred by rail from Crimea. Think we will see more of this in coming weeks and the offensive on Kherson oblast do not know if they have the power to push on more, but we will see in coming months.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

...which could be if we get a harsh winter and Russia Close or lower the gas and oil flow to Europe.

Well I don't know how far they have come with the repair of the Danish gas field Tyra. If they fix the repair and maintenance If they fix it before winter then Denmark is self supplying with gas and can even sell.

Markus

I am not so concerned, we have always the Groningen gas field that can be used to help other countries in Europe. We got trouble with it, but if it is needed we must help each other and the Dutch will help.

Gas extraction resulted in subsidence above the field. From 1991 this was also accompanied by earthquakes. This led to damage to houses and unrest among residents. It was decided to phase out gas extraction from 2014 onwards. The Groningen gas field is expected to be closed between 2025 and 2028, with the possibility of bringing this forward. The reinforcement operation and damage settlement as a result of the earthquakes are progressing slowly. The National Ombudsman called this a "national crisis" in 2021

[Jimbuna]

New bill on recognizing Russia as Sponsor of Terrorism is introduced in U.S. Senate

After the State Department abstained from the "non-binding" Senate resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism, Republican Congressman Ted Lew introduced a new bill, this time in the House of Representatives.

The document was published on the official page of Congressman, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to Ukrinform.

"Under the leadership of President Vladimir Putin, the government of the Russian Federation has carried out and continues to commit acts of international terrorism against political opponents and nation states," the bill reads.

The document recalls the crimes committed by the Kremlin regime in the international arena and in Russia itself, including the mass destruction of civilians during the "second" Chechen war, the support of criminal entities in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas and the terror unleashed on Ukrainian citizens there, terrorist actions with Russian state support in Syria, Sudan, Libya, terrorist attacks in Britain and the destruction of Malaysian flight MH17.

The bill also recalls Russia's terrorist actions in Ukraine already after the military invasion in February of this year, including the use of mercenaries from the so-called "Wagner Group," the mass murder of civilians in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

"The United States has a list of tools to hold Russia accountable, limit its war machine, isolate it economically and diplomatically, including recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism and applying appropriate sanctions," the draft says.

The author of the document especially emphasizes that nothing in the bill provides grounds for sanctions against persons involved in the export of agricultural products from Ukraine or in the delivery of humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Interesting analysis on how the Russians are using UAVs and their heavy artillery to counter the advanced systems supplied to Ukraine. HIMARS and other systems are very good, but there are not enough of them to make a difference. Based on other reports, Russian artillery apparently outnumbers the Ukrainians by a factor of 5-10x depending on the sector.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-fbaa25166f0e

UAVs for reconnaissance are massively used by Ukraine also easy to get for Ukraine they can get more and easier than the sanctioned Russians.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

UAVs for reconnaissance are massively used by Ukraine also easy to get for Ukraine they can get more and easier than the sanctioned Russians.

If Russia doesn't get theirs from either Iran or China.

Markus