Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

This < Made me remember the clip where the head of Russian intelligence stod in front of Putin and mumbled words-He was afraid saying the truth to Putin.

Markus

In general Russians do not listen, understand or learn:
How a small town in the eastern Donbas has been resisting the Russians for six months
The Russian army has been trying to take a town for six months: Bakhmut. But despite countless attacks and the many casualties, the capture is still far away. It is yet another example of Russia's military failure in Ukraine. The battle in and around the town of Bakhmut, which once had a population of 80 thousand, is constantly mentioned in the military bulletins of Russia and Ukraine. The Russians claim they are advancing in the eastern Donbas; the Ukrainians report they are holding out. Not much more is known.

The lack of Russian ground gains, and Moscow's almost desperate focus on Bakhmut, has by now become the big news. After months of setbacks on the Ukrainian battlefield, the Kremlin yearns for a military victory. And so the Russians are willing to pay a high price for the capture of the town. How many dead and wounded the months-long siege has already cost is unclear. Some reports speak of hundreds of casualties a day on both sides. 'A relentless, protracted war of attrition,' is how the U.S. military think tank Institute for the Study of War describes the bloody campaign in Donetsk province. Footage of the battle shows Ukrainian soldiers holed up in their trenches, which have turned into mud puddles. At the military hospital in the city, Ukrainian wounded are being brought in persistently.

'These are conditions in which the concept of 'living' is no longer possible,' the Ukrainian Defense Ministry tweeted Monday, accompanying a photo of an exhausted soldier displaying his shrapnel vest with bullet holes. Occasionally, Bachmoet is world news, such as recently when Dutch photographer Eddy van Wessel poignantly immortalized a wounded elderly couple. The capture of Bakhmut, which is located on two major highways, should not only ultimately give the Russians the dreamed-of victory, but also allow them to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and push on to the more important cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

If successful, Moscow hopes, the conquest of all of Donetsk will come closer. The region, still half in Ukrainian hands, together with Luhansk forms the Donbas, which was annexed by Russia in September. The Russian army has been making serious efforts since May, including heavy artillery shelling, to capture Bakhmut. The attacks intensified in July, after the Russians took control of the entire Luhansk region with the capture of the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. They set their sights on Bakhmut and nearby villages as a springboard to the conquest of all of Donetsk.

But the attacks bogged down in a war of attrition that has been going on for months now. At the same time, the Russians were also coming under military pressure from the successful Ukrainian counteroffensives at Kharkiv and Kherson. Still, Moscow did not cease its siege of Bakhmut; quite the contrary. Mercenaries of the Wagner Army, who are leading the siege of the city, intensified shelling. After losing southern Kherson last month, the Russian high command directed some of the withdrawn troops toward Bakhmut to finally allow the capture there.

For Ukraine, the battle for the town and nearby villages has now become a prestige battle. Kyiv is eager to make Bakhmut yet another example of Russia's flawed military performance. The town is defended, among other things, by the First Presidential Brigade, the National Guard soldiers tasked with guarding the security of President Volodymyr Zelensky. In recent days, Russian units made slight ground gains 12 kilometers south of Bakhmut. From the northeast, too, they are said to be slowly advancing toward the outskirts of Bakhmut. The enormous military force that Russia has been releasing for six months to take the town amazes many a military expert. For even if Bakhut falls, that is no guarantee that the Russians will soon be able to take the other towns in the Donetsk region as well. 'The offensives around Bakhmut are costing Russia a significant portion of its available combat power,' the Institute for the Study of War concludes. 'All this makes the continuation of Ukrainian counteroffensives elsewhere possible. The Russian military has essentially failed to learn the lessons of previous campaigns, which resulted in many casualties.'

[Catfish]

I heard Russia plans a major attack, it has been preparing bombers and lots of freight planes. Anyone confirm?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I heard Russia plans a major attack, it has been preparing bombers and lots of freight planes. Anyone confirm?

Yes, that was reported yesterday I believe.

[Jimbuna]

UN Commission for Investigation of War Crimes in Ukraine was unable to establish contact with Russia

The UN’s independent international commission to investigate violations in Ukraine failed to establish contact with Russia.

This was stated at the press conference of the commission in Kyiv by one of its members, Pablo de Greif, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"We have tried to establish contact with the Russian Federation several times - and to no avail. We hope that interaction will be established, but without any access to the temporarily occupied territories, gathering evidence is very difficult, and we are trying to do it with the help of interviews with victims and witnesses, so this visit included a visit to Odesa," he said.

Members of the UN commission noted that their work is also complicated by the movement of people abroad, not only within Ukraine.

As reported, on March 4, the UN Human Rights Council adopted resolution 49/1 on the "situation in the field of human rights in Ukraine as a result of Russian aggression." In accordance with this resolution, the Human Rights Council established an independent international commission to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

In October, the Commission for Investigating Violations in Ukraine presented a detailed written report to the UN General Assembly, which recorded a large number of war crimes, violations of human rights and international humanitarian law committed by Russian troops in Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384530

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin is ready to withdraw troops from Zaporizhzhia NPP in exchange for guarantees of uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through territory of Ukraine, - "Meduza"

The Kremlin and the Russian government are ready for an agreement on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to "Meduza".

A source close to the Kremlin, as well as an interlocutor close to the government of the Russian Federation, claim that Russia "does not plan" to completely leave the Zaporizhzhia region. However, according to these sources, Moscow is ready to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which Russian troops took control of at the beginning of the full-scale war. According to the Kremlin's plan, the NPP can allegedly be handed over to either Kyiv or the IAEA.

Sources close to the Kremlin and the government of the Russian Federation say that in exchange for the withdrawal of troops from the nuclear power plant, the Russian authorities allegedly expect to receive guarantees of uninterrupted transit of oil and gas through the territory of Ukraine. Interlocutors of "Meduza" claim that the Kremlin and the government "are ready for an agreement."

"Putting and selling [oil and gas] is very important for the Russian budget," a source close to the Kremlin explained to Meduza.

Putin's spokesman Dmytro Peskov in communication with "Meduza" rejected the possibility of such an "agreement" on the Zaporizhzhya NPP.

At the same time, "Meduza" sources close to the Kremlin say that the Russian army may launch a new large-scale offensive in Ukraine this winter.

"Moscow deliberately alludes more and more to possible negotiations and agreements with Ukraine in order to buy time and have time to prepare the maximum number of mobilized Russians by this deadline," the newspaper concluded.

We will remind, earlier in Energoatom stated that there are signs that the Russians may be planning to leave the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

At the same time, Putin's spokesman Dmytro Peskov said that the Russian troops do not plan to leave the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP and Enerhodar.

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi believes that a decision on the safety of the ZNPP can be reached by the end of the year. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384524

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

I'd be content to disallow any of their ambassadors into the West; barred from the Security UN council [...]

Of course. But right now lots of russians think their armies gained territorial wins or even "won", and are content of what their "president" [sic! laughing my a$$ off) does. They probably need a drastic reality update.

[Jimbuna]

By spring, we will have clearer picture regarding ceasefire in Ukraine, - Turkish Foreign Ministry

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlt avuolu said Ankara expects a "clearer picture" on a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine or a return to the negotiating table by the spring of 2023.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to European Pravda.

"I think we also have to convince some Western allies to come back to the negotiating table now. Ukraine is advancing on the ground, retaking some territories, occupied territories, but Russia is responding by deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure. So life is becoming difficult for Ukrainians in particular , and for us, for all of us," Çavuşoğlu said.

The head of Turkish diplomacy emphasized that "more complex new realities" appeared in the war in Ukraine.

"I think that by spring we will have a clearer picture of a ceasefire, or a truce, or a return to the negotiating table," he added.

Turkey has repeatedly tried to become a mediator in reaching a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia; the last face-to-face talks between the parties took place at the end of March in Istanbul. Ankara emphasizes support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and also closed the Bosphorus Strait to Russian military vessels. At the same time, Turkey refuses to introduce sanctions against Russia and continues to conduct negotiations and trade relations with it. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384557

New EU military mission for Ukraine has reached full operational readiness, - Borrell

The new training mission of the European Union for the military of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) has reached full operational readiness.

This was stated by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, at a briefing in the Polish city of Brzeg, Censor.NET reports with reference to "European Truth".

"I am happy to announce that the commander of the mission, Admiral Blejan, who accompanied me today, said that the mission has reached full operational readiness. The mission is already operational, the mission will allow training of 15 thousand Ukrainian soldiers. It will cost the EU budget 100 million euros," Borrell said.

According to him, at the moment, 1,100 Ukrainian soldiers are already undergoing training as part of the mission in various camps.

"20 EU countries are participating in the mission. This is the largest military mission the EU has ever created for any of its partners," Borrell said.

He also announced that the EU will provide an additional 16 million euros, which will be spent on training equipment. "In addition, Norway, which is not part of the EU, will provide 50 million euros to support the mission," Borrell added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384558

[Skybird]

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung:
----------------------------------------
Biden's Signal to Putin

What the U.S. president has now said about possible negotiations with Putin is remarkable in two respects. First, Biden has never been so open to negotiations on Ukraine. The fact that he said, restrictively, that Putin must have an interest in ending the war is not too high a hurdle, because one rarely knows the true intentions of an interlocutor anyway. On the other hand, it is striking that he only held out the prospect of coordination with NATO allies in this case. He did not mention the Ukrainian government. He also did not repeat the previous formula that without Ukraine nothing would be decided about Ukraine.

No change of course can yet be gleaned from these remarks. Biden himself, during his appearance with French President Macron in Washington, reiterated support for Ukraine and the will to confront Russia together with allies. But it is not the first signal in recent times that the White House does not want to block the option of a negotiated solution. Some time ago, Washington already demanded from Kiev more fundamental willingness to talk; and General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, publicly called for a diplomatic solution.

From the outset, the U.S. view of the war has been shaped by two very different factors. On the one hand, Biden does not want to allow a country that still counts America among its main rivals to gain geopolitical ground in Europe. On the other hand, he wants to avoid a direct military confrontation with Russia. The anxiety that prevails in Washington about a nuclear confrontation has been underestimated by many politicians, especially in Germany, though not by the chancellor.

Putin, who has always been a tactician, was quick to recognize the opportunity that might be presented to him, and on Friday he immediately set out his condition for talks: recognition of Russia's annexations in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Biden will go along with such a deal, especially at this point. The West has been too unequivocal in its condemnation of the land grab. Moreover, there is a distinct possibility that Ukraine may recapture additional Russian-occupied territory.

But the very fact that Biden is making a bilateral offer to talk changes the conflict in Russia's favor. Even before the invasion, Putin wanted to treat the matter as a great power deal between America and Russia, and he downgraded Ukraine to an object whose interests do not matter.

The Europeans, despite their remarkable unity, continue to have less influence in this game than they could wish for on their continent. At the press conference, it was Macron who stuck to the old Western position that it was legitimate for Ukraine to set conditions for negotiations and for it to decide when the time for talks had come.

But he himself would continue to talk to Putin, Macron assured - much like the German chancellor, who called the Russian president on Friday. The fact that Putin will be toppled, as Biden has already publicly demanded, and what many hope for from the Western sanctions, is obviously no longer a Western goal.
-----------------------------------


They keep saying they will support Ukraine as long as needed, but if I were the Ukraine, I would not be too sure of that. In total numbers, the US support is more than the support of all others together. If the Americans say enough is enough, Europe in no way is capable to compensate for that, even if it would want: it lacks the military potency. Finnish prime minister Marin just has reminded NATO of that, pointing out that without the US Europe would be unable to keep its security acts together, and concluding that Europe's own defensive abilities were in no way strong enough. She accused several states of having allowed too long to be blinded by illusions about the good-meaning posture of Russia and the value of economic ties to Russia in containing its military ambitions, and demanded more honesty of European states in perceiving the weak status quo they are in. She said the naivety of several European states was always beyond belief for Fins.


-----------------------


It got reported over the past 7-10 days that Putin plans to use the winter to train an additional 500,000 troops until Spring. If true, half a million ill-equipped but better trained soldiers might have an unwelcomed impact on Ukraine's attempt to retake its territories. China now seems to send peroisnal equipmment for troops, as Russia is reported to have established an airlift to China that sees transports with deactivated transponders shuttling back and forth between productions facilities in China and Russian bases. Eyes witnesses say they saw the planes being loaded with personal gear, helmets, uniforms, flak-jackets, small arms, technical gadgets for individual soldiers. News and articles in Western media on this were rare, but they were there in recent days.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I heard Russia plans a major attack, it has been preparing bombers and lots of freight planes. Anyone confirm?

Dunno if it is this

Surge In Russian Bombers At Air Base Not As Unusual As Reports Claim

A review of months worth of satellite imagery shows a recent uptick in Russian bombers at Engels Air Base in well in line with known trends. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...s-media-claims

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russian troops mutiny as conscripts storm off military base and head home in protest

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...49f1aac1dee2be

[Jimbuna]

How the ‘Price Cap’ on Russian Oil Works

European Union diplomats have agreed on a $60-per-barrel limit on the price at which Russian oil can be traded outside the bloc, the latest effort by Western allies to try to deprive Moscow of revenue to finance its war in Ukraine.

But there are serious questions over whether such a plan can be enforced, and whether Russia and its main buyers, including China and India, will go along with the price set by the Group of 7 industrialized nations.

Here is a look at some key elements of the plan:

It aims to let Russia keep selling oil, but earn less from it.

Western allies don’t want Russia to stop selling oil, its main export. Doing so would put a big dent in the global supply and drive prices up at a time of already soaring global inflation. It would also affect countries such as India and Turkey — key buyers of Russian crude — whose support the West is hoping to leverage to maintain pressure on Moscow.

Instead, the United States and allies have negotiated a plan aimed at reducing the revenue Russia earns from each barrel that it ships. The effort is a reflection of how Western sanctions have failed to weaken Moscow’s energy exports: Russia is on track to earn more this year from oil sales than in 2021, buoyed by a surge in the global price after the war began, despite often selling to China and India at discounts.

It is not really a price cap; it’s a restriction on shipping and insurance companies.

The U.S. Treasury secretary, Janet L. Yellen, has described the plan as a price cap, but it’s nearly impossible to manipulate the price of a global commodity such as oil. Instead, the plan relies heavily on European dominance of the maritime insurance industry, a web of companies that provide coverage for ships and their cargo, liability for potential spills and reinsurance, a form of secondary insurance used to defray the risk of losses.

Most of the major shipping companies and insurers are based in Group of 7 countries. The plan prohibits those companies from handling Russian crude unless the shipment has been sold at or below the price set by the Group of 7. If it is not, they will be held liable for violating sanctions.

The price has been set higher than some of Ukraine’s closest allies had wanted.

The $60-per-barrel price is a disappointment for some European countries, including harder-line pro-Ukraine nations such as Poland, that wanted to see the Kremlin lose much more revenue from its oil sales. With Russia’s oil production costs estimated at $20 per barrel — and the benchmark for the price of Russian oil having traded at between $60 to $100 per barrel in the past three years — the agreed-upon price still allows Moscow to reap substantial profits.

E.U. diplomats involved in the negotiations were bothered by what they saw as an American-led process that left them with complex and difficult implementation costs without significantly altering Russian revenues.

U.S. officials argued that it would be better to set a price high enough that Russia would comply with it by continuing to ship much of its oil exports using European and American infrastructure, like ships and insurance.

Experts are skeptical, and Russia’s customers may find ways around the cap.

Industry officials have questioned the feasibility of the plan, which relies on each party in the supply chain of Russian oil to attest to the price of shipments. Insurers and shippers have warned that records could be falsified by Russia and trading partners intent on keeping oil flowing.

The Kremlin has said it will not sell to countries that comply with the pricing mechanism, meaning those intent on buying its oil may find ways around it. One method could be side payments — for example, overpaying Russia for wheat or other commodities not subject to sanctions — which occurred during the 1990s when the United Nations tried to impose a similar plan on Iraq.

China, India and others could buy Russian oil at any price if shipped or insured by non-European companies, which a senior U.S. Treasury official said would most likely be more expensive, but not subject to penalties. And guidance issued by the Treasury Department said Russian oil that had been sold under the pricing mechanism but then “substantially transformed” or refined outside Russia would not be subject to the sanctions.

Companies that are found to have knowingly violated the policy will be barred from offering services for Russian oil for three months — a penalty that critics say is far too lenient to make the policy effective.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...2eb27c313cc5fd

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I heard Russia plans a major attack, it has been preparing bombers and lots of freight planes. Anyone confirm?

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Yes, that was reported yesterday I believe.

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 90.6 thousand people, 263 helicopters, 2917 tanks, 1906 artillery systems, 5886 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

The Russian invaders, who invaded the territory of Ukraine, continue to suffer losses. As of the morning of December 3, the loss of enemy personnel are approximately 90,600.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02 to 03/12 approximately amount to:

personnel - about 90,600 (+510) people were liquidated,
tanks - 2917 (+1) units,
armored fighting vehicles - 5886 (+3) units,
artillery systems - 1906 (+1) units,
MLRS - 395 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 210 (+0) units,
aircraft - 280 (+0) units,
helicopters - 263 (+1) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 1572 (+8),
cruise missiles - 531 (+0),
Warships/boats - 16 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 4472 (+8) units,
special equipment - 163 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384624

[Jimbuna]

For some types of weapons, Russia already uses strategic stockpile - Defence Intelligence

According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, the enemy is already using a strategic stockpile of some types of weapons, as well as missiles manufactured this year, in particular in August.

This was stated by the representative of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky, Censor.NET informs.

"This suggests that some missiles are used directly from the assembly line. How many of them will be enough depends on the production. Yes, it has fallen compared to the pre-war period. But, unfortunately, due to the fact that it circumvents economic sanctions, the Russian Federation is still able to produce a certain number of cruise missiles and other weapons that are used against our state," the representative of military intelligence of Ukraine concluded.

For 2 months, Russia exported 122 mm, 152 mm artillery ammunition from Belarus.

Also, according to military intelligence, Russia's negotiations with other countries regarding the supply of ammunition and missile weapons for the "Smerch" and "Uragan" MLRS, which it has a shortage of, and the Russian Federation's negotiations with Iran regarding the replenishment of ballistic missile stocks, are ongoing. As Vadym Skibitsky noted, there are relevant draft agreements between these countries, but to date, no deliveries of such weapons have been recorded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384668

Estonia has signed agreement with United States for purchase of HIMARS

Estonia signed an agreement on the purchase of HIMARS rocket launcher systems manufactured by Lockheed Martin in the United States. The relevant agreement was concluded between the State Defense Investment Center of Estonia (RKIK) and the US Defense and Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA)

This is reported by the Estonian television and radio company Eesti Rahvusringhääling, Censor.NET informs.

It is said that the total value of the contract is more than 200 million dollars, which will be the largest defense contract in the history of Estonia.

"As part of the contract, in addition to rocket launchers, Estonia will also purchase ammunition and communication equipment.
The agreement also includes the resolution of issues related to training and logistics. In particular, the package includes various types of missiles with a range of 70 to 300 kilometers," said Ramil Lipp, head of the RKIK arms department.

"The HIMARS rocket launcher system is a new and important step in the development of Estonia's defense capabilities, which allows inflicting significant damage on the enemy even before he comes into contact with our infantry units. It is a standard NATO system that promotes comprehensive cooperation with other allies of the Alliance," said the representative of the General Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces, Lt. Col. Kaarel Mäesalu. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384640