Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I wrote
"Would you believe me if I said that there WILL be boots on the ground within the next half year...Not to fight the Russians...but to fight the Ukrainian to keep them apart."

And you said no.

Here's why I wrote these words-
EU, G7 and Australia have made some price limit 60 dollars-Russia is against this and may as you have indicated stop the oil flow to EU. From what I have read here is that EU is depended on this oil.
The weather people say we are in for a hard winter

I'm picturing following-We are in Jan-Feb. -23 Thousands of EU-citizens have died due to the hard winter and lack of oil and gas.

It's here I see an decrease of supporting the Ukrainians among the ordinary people-

The contact between Russia and EU/Nato/USA will take place in Feb. - March.
Here Putin will demand an Ukrainian ceasefire before he open up for the oil and gas.

These words written is based on what you have posted and what I've seen in the news

Markus

If that happens, you can also put some of the blame on the Biden Administration, seeing as he eviscerated U.S domestic oil and gas production within a week of taking office. Had he not done that, we could have ramped up production enough to at least partially cover any Russian shortfall this winter.

[Jimbuna]

Putin scrambles to shore up support with desperate visit to Ukraine frontline amid revolts

Vladimir Putin is expected to soon make his first trip to the frontline in the war with Ukraine since Russia's invasion in late February. The Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov confirmed that President Putin will visit the Donbas in occupied eastern Ukraine "in due time". However, former CIA official Steve Hall suggested that the forthcoming visit is a desperate move from the Russian leader amid falling support for the war at home.

Earlier today, the latest intelligence briefing from the British Ministry of Defence revealed that public support in Russia for the war was "falling significantly".

Discussing the expected visit, the former CIA chief in Russia dismissed claims that it would show how Russia has secured parts of its annexed territories in Ukraine.

He told CNN: "I don't think it is an indication of his security, I think it is an indication of his really strong desire to show Russians that this is part of Russia.

"Remember, he told Russians that he had annexed this part of Ukraine but he does not really control the annexed territories."

Mr Hall continued: "Many Russians know they have lost control, or have questions about the Russian control.

"So Putin wants to show that this is indeed part of Russia."

As another reason, Mr Hall suggested that President Putin is "irritated to see a steady flow of Western visitors in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine when his military is not doing very well in the parts he claims to control".

Despite the Kremlin's pronouncement, it is not clear when the Russian president will visit the frontline, or how much of the Donbas his army will still hold when he gets there.

The current Russian frontline in the Donbas has been described as a "meat grinder" as offensives on Bakhmut lose a significant number of soldiers with minimal gains.

It is thought that Ukrainian special forces could pose a threat to President Putin during any visit to the front.

The Russian leader may also have to contend with Russian troops suffering low morale.

Meanwhile, the latest MoD briefing cited an independent Russian media outlet, which obtained a confidential opinion survey conducted by the Federal Protection Service in Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...a23c41687f0d4d

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Mounting indicaitosn and signals that Belaruss is about to enter the war soon. Different to the Russians they have had nine months to watch, learn and train. I nevertheless would not expect too much of them, since their army is relatively small. Still, one significant problem more for Ukraine.

The mood is shifting further agai8nst Ukraine in the West, and also -a nd this is the relevant part - on goivenrment levels. France made ominous announcements of somewhat double-edged nature. Republicans in the US call increasingly for a limit or end of military support for Ukraine.

Remember the beginning phase of this war. I said the longer the war lasts, the greater the chance that the West will give Ukraine up and force it to accept Russia's terms. Slowly but surely things move at that direction, maybe with the exception of Poland and the Baltic states. But them alone, what can they do? Their defence industries are no heavy hitters, though the Poles aim at making it so, and do what they can to increase their defence industry in quantity and quality, technological know-how. - Meanewhile the Germans have put their buying of F-35s in doubt again and have so far not ordered one additional round of ammo for their ammo-depleted armed forces this year. Its reported they have enough ammo for TWO DAYS of fighting like we see in Ukraine.

Defence industries in the West also report they have problems to replace the quantities of ammo and weapons that gut sucked up by the ukraine war, due to breakdown of logistcs and supply chains, and the exploded demand of many militaries wanting to beef up and modernise their defences and replacing donated weapons (Germany so far just talking of that but not doing it: could be that when they finally maybe get started they find that the shelves are empty).

[kraznyi_oktjabr]

Explosions reported in Russian air bases nearby Ryazan and Saratov. Second explosion in Engels air base nearby Saratov reportedly destroyed two Tupolev Tu-95 bombers.


Saratov is about 600 km from Ukraine, so it will be interesting to hear what officially happened. Explanation for Ryazan seems to be an accidental explosion of fuel truck.


Here is one source:


https://theaviationist.com/2022/12/0...tu-95-bombers/


...but other medias have also noticed this incident.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

USA will help Ukraine with protection from air attacks of Russian Federation and repair of infrastructure facilities, - Ambassador Brink

The U.S. will provide Ukraine with air defense and assistance in the energy sector to ensure the ability to defend against Russian attacks and repair civilian infrastructure.

US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink wrote about this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

"As Russia deprives every person in Ukraine of heat, water, electricity, including children, the elderly, we will provide air defense against Russia's increased barbaric attacks and help in the energy sector so that Ukraine can protect and repair civilian infrastructure," said Brink. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3385003

Blinken: US Congress is working on alternative to recognizing Russia as state sponsor of terrorism

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the Congress is working on an alternative to recognizing Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism".

This is reported by Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"We are constantly looking at what measures we can take to increase the pressure. We're working with Congress right now on regulations that will help us with some of the controversy surrounding the use of the 'state sponsor of terrorism' designation, which would have unintended consequences. We are working to develop a way to achieve that goal," Blinken said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3384893

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Finnish Foreign Minister Haavisto did not support Macron: We need guarantees specifically against Russia

Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto did not support French President Emmanuel Macron’s statement that Russia should allegedly have "its own security guarantees" when it returns to the negotiating table.

Haavisto emphasized that the guarantees should be directed against the Russian Federation, Censor.NET reports with reference to LigaBusinessInform.

"In the current situation, we need guarantees specifically against Russia. This applies to both Ukraine and other countries," said the head of the Finnish Foreign Ministry.

According to him, the Russian Federation is currently acting against the international order and acts as an invader of the territories of other countries.

He recalled the Russian invasion of Georgia, the occupation of Crimea, and the seizure of part of Donbas. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3385071

Russian army has begun to save ammunition, front already has equipment from the 1960s, - Syrsky

The Russian occupiers began to save ammunition and brought to the front production equipment of the 1960s.

This was announced by the commander of the Ground Forces, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky, on the air of the national telethon, Censor.NET reports with reference to LigaBusinessInform.

According to him, the level of ammunition consumption is unprecedented, since the intensity of hostilities can be compared with the Second World War. He noted that the Russians began to experience a shortage of shells.

"If before we responded with one shot for six to ten shots, now it has changed. They started to feel the shortage," said Syrsky.

The general said that the enemy is forced to conserve ammunition due to strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on logistical arteries.

He also drew attention to the fact that old models of equipment began to appear at the front - you can see BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles from the 1960s, BTR-70 armored personnel carriers from the 1970s, and the BRDM armored reconnaissance and patrol vehicle.

"All equipment that was considered scrapped. Their defense industry is unable to restore damaged equipment, and the level of irreversible losses is so great that there is no capacity to produce new products," the military commander summarized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3385109

[Jimbuna]

Putin's not mad - he knows what he's doing and he's playing us for fools, John Bolton

Vladimir Putin is not mad he just "has his own logic" which the US, UK and EU countries failed to properly understand before the Ukraine invasion, John Bolton has claimed. Mr Bolton was part of the Trump administration's efforts to curtail Putin's power by bringing in sanction regimes but now says that western democracies did not go far enough.

A number of commentators and observers believe that Mr Putin is insane, but, speaking exclusively to Express.co.uk, John Bolton, who has had one to one dealings with the Russian leader, disagreed.

He said: "I can't diagnose Putin medically, but I think it is a mistake to believe he is operating impaired in some state just because he is operating in way which we find hard to understand.

"On several occasions I met with him and we would talk about things we would disagree with and he would say through his interpreter 'well you have got your logic we have got ours. We will see which one prevails.'"

It's the "different logic" and a sense of anguish over the collapse of the Soviet Union which Mr Bolton believes is behind Mr Putin's continued push in Ukraine despite massive losses as well as economic and reputational damage.

"He's lost 100,000 casualties, his economy has been harmed, the question is how much longer can this go on?

"The question is: 'Can it go on a lot longer?' It can."

The Ukrainian commander of the Svoboda battalion, Petro Kuzyk, whose unit is one of those holding Bakhmut, said his soldiers are staying in trenches full of corpses, fighting in extremely cold conditions and in knee-deep water against Russia's attacks.

Mr Bolton spoke of his struggles to persuade Mr Trump to impose sanctions but insisted that the war in Ukraine represented a greater failure of the west.

He said: "The bottom line is that the Russians invaded Ukraine, Crimea, took part of the Donbas in 2014 and they didn't suffer significant consequences.

"Western sanctions were minimal. Then the chemical weapons attack in 2018, not a lot happened, we expelled some diplomats, you expelled some diplomats.

"As [former MI6 chief] Mark Sedwell, who was my British counterpart, said to Trump when he came to visit Theresa May in 2018: 'They have conducted a chemical weapons attack on a nuclear power and yet we didn't do that much in response.'

"If you think you can get away with it you are inclined to do it again.

"Those are failures in deterrence which means we should have done more before the war."

Mr Bolton went on: "In his mind and the mind of many Russians the break-up of the Soviet Union was illegitimate, the creation of the independent Republics was a western plot and they want to restore the Russian empire.

"If that is your objective and think we were wrong, you are willing to pay a different price."

Mr Bolton was part of the efforts in the Trump White House to try to ensure Putin did not launch any new invasions.

He warned that "deterrence is complicated" and that the stand-off in the Cold war between the USA and western allies and the Soviet Union and Iron Curtain bloc was "not as easy as it seemed".

He believes that the failure to tame Putin has proved that problem.

Mr Bolton also spoke of his efforts to force Mr Trump to impose sanctions on Putin who he got on well with personally.

"We imposed a lot of sanctions on Russia which he opposed and what would happen Pompeo and I and others would go and say this is what we want to do.

"He [Trump] would grumble and mull over Ukraine and conspiracy and then he would finally sign.

"He would complain about it later too.

"Then he would be criticised for being too friendly to Putin and he would say 'my government has put more sanctions on Russia than anyone else.'"
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ecb78c63e52c97

[Jimbuna]

Putin drives across repaired bridge to Crimea in bid to boost Russian morale

Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to boost Russian morale by driving across a bridge to Crimea that a truck bomb damaged in October.

He took the wheel of a Mercedes to drive across the bridge linking Russia’s mainland with the peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

Like other western car makers, Mercedes halted sales of vehicles to Russia and stopped production at its assembly factory near Moscow after the start of Russia’s military operation in Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Mr Putin did not try to make a political point by driving the Mercedes and not a Russian-made Auris sedan, saying the president just used an available car.

While driving, Mr Putin discussed the repairs of the Crimean Bridge with Marat Khusnullin, a deputy prime minister in charge of the project, an exchange broadcast by Russian television.

The president also spoke to workers involved in restoring the 12-mile bridge, which has been the main conduit for ferrying supplies to Crimea, which has served as a key base for Russian military operations in Ukraine.

In view of Ukrainian threats to launch new attacks on the bridge, Mr Putin emphasised the need to build a motorway along the Sea of Azov coast to link Crimea with regions in southern Russia, the Kremlin said.

The truck bomb attack on October 8 disrupted travel on one of the two lanes of the bridge.

Russia blamed the attack on Ukrainian military intelligence and responded with several waves of strikes on Ukraine’s energy facilities and other key infrastructure.

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said last week widespread strikes targeting power, telecommunications and water infrastructure were intended to weaken Ukraine’s military potential and to derail shipments of western weapons.

Ukrainian authorities said there was another such barrage on Monday, hours after Russian media reported two explosions at air bases in Russia.

One reportedly happened at a base housing nuclear-capable strategic bombers which have been involved in launching strikes in Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...b1f2bae4365f5a

[Skybird]

What remains of Russian missiles: Charkiv.



(Deutsche Welle)


I cant help but think that humans are strange beings.

[Jimbuna]

Mobilisation increases Russian military threat - Ukrainian general

KYIV (Reuters) - Russia's recent mobilisation has increased its military threat in Ukraine, with better trained soldiers now arriving at the front line, the commander of Ukrainian ground forces said on Monday.

But he said Russia was now using a lot of old equipment because it had no other way of replenishing supplies, and that Russian forces had made only slow progress around Bakhmut, one of the main battle zones in eastern Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...535e69c6e4d755

[Jimbuna]