The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Are we in a perfect geopolitical storm ?
Is the time right for China to invade Taiwan ?



I say the invasion will first come in late 2025.

Markus

[Skybird]

[Focus] When Taiwan votes on 13 January, many observers see it as a fateful election. Depending on the outcome of the election, the Chinese dictatorship could decide to invade the democratic island.
China's autocrat Xi Jinping claims that Taiwan is part of the People's Republic. But this is not true - the island has never belonged to communist China.

Since Xi has been in office, he has threatened the Taiwanese with annexation, which he euphemistically calls "reunification". However, the Taiwanese have become increasingly self-confident over the years.

Today, more than 75 per cent of the country's inhabitants say that they see themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese. Just as many have announced that they will take up arms if Xi makes good on his threat of colonisation.
Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), for example, cannot run again after two terms in office. Her party's top candidate is Vice President Lai Ching-te.

The politician is leading in all polls. Beijing claims that the DPP is striving for Taiwan's "independence". However, according to the government, Taiwan, whose full name is the "Republic of China", has been an independent state since it was founded in 1911.

Since Tsai was elected in 2016, Beijing has stepped up its military actions against the democratic country. Warships and fighter jets cross the median line between free Taiwan and unfree China almost every day.

The conservative opposition, the Kuomintang Party and the Taiwan People's Party hope that Beijing's attrition tactics will drive voters into their arms. They are counting on a détente with Beijing.

However, there are no concrete plans as to how this is to take place. There are no signs to date that Xi could give in after an opposition election victory.

It is more likely that China's ruler will use another victory for the Democratic Progressive Party in the presidential elections as an opportunity to attack the island.
This is because Xi is under enormous pressure domestically. Youth unemployment is higher than ever, the economy is struggling to get going, and a banking and property crisis has destroyed the wealth of the middle class.

In a situation like this, dictators start wars to keep themselves in office. An election victory for Lai Ching-te could therefore lead to an invasion of the island. Or at least to tougher measures aimed at damaging the country's economy, especially the world's leading semiconductor technology.

One thing is clear: Xi's army has rehearsed the blockade of the island several times. Chinese ships destroyed internet cables to rehearse how the country could be cut off from the rest of the world.
The Taiwanese are proud of their democracy. They will use their right to vote, a privilege that the Chinese Communist Party has denied the people of the country for decades.

It is this successful democracy that Xi has on his back. Because, the dictator fears, it could inspire the mainland Chinese to follow suit if their dissatisfaction with his rule continues.
https://www.focus.de/politik/der-chi...259537864.html

[mapuc]

Could be wrong in my thinking

If China decide to attack/invade Taiwan they will sooner or later fight a three front war. Which will be against Taiwan, USA(and it's allied in the area) and Russia(They are going to take the chance to gain some land from China)

USA will fight a three front war too.

Against China, Iran and Russia(By proxy)

Markus

[Reece]

As I mentioned in another thread Markus "Happy new year"

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Could be wrong in my thinking

If China decide to attack/invade Taiwan they will sooner or later fight a three front war. Which will be against Taiwan, USA(and it's allied in the area) and Russia(They are going to take the chance to gain some land from China)

USA will fight a three front war too.

Against China, Iran and Russia(By proxy)

Markus

The USA will not fight on his own in case this scenario is to be used world trade security will be in danger, so the whole West will react to secure
I do not know if China is so stupid to start WWIII yes we are depended on his products, but this works both ways seeing they still not got their economy in order do not think this year we will see an invasion of Taiwan. And who is to say it will be military. Do not forget the triads they got rid of the last empire and on the moment 75% different triads work for china, the triads can do more than a Chinese army. The triads already do an opium (Fentanyl) war on the West with the CCP as their master.

[em2nought]

So could you purposely get into a war with your creditors in order to "not" pay them? Wouldn't hurt if you could suspend an election you can't possibly win too!

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Xi Jinping humiliated as overseas attack exposes 'painful' military weakness

President Xi Jinping's army is not fit for purpose warns one insider after a tragic setback a few years back sparked a massive audit.

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) lacks crucial combat experience, especially in contemporary warfare, casting doubt over their ability to win any future wars, they claim.

The PLA insider admitted: "The painful lesson in South Sudan exposed one of our greatest vulnerabilities - an almost complete lack of combat experience," referring to an incident in which Chinese troops were killed while seeking refuge on a UN peacekeeping mission in 2016.

China's official narrative painted the incident as a testament to its emergence as a global power, ready to bear substantial responsibilities. However, within the PLA's high command, the episode unfolded as a glaring disaster, laying bare the dearth of combat experience plaguing the military.

"Our ability to fight a modern war and our officers' ability to command are both lacking," confessed Lieutenant-General He Lei, a seasoned PLA commander, echoing the insider's critique of President Xi's army.

Xi, recognising the urgency of addressing this critical issue, initiated the most comprehensive overhaul of the PLA in over six decades. "We can't go to war to increase our combat experience, right?" questioned General He Lei, highlighting the dilemma faced by the PLA in honing its military prowess.

The Chinese leader, unyielding in his critique, identified the PLA's weaknesses with "Two Inabilities" and "Five Incapables", pointing out the military's ineptitude in modern warfare and the commanders' deficiencies in decision-making.

"I've been a soldier for more than 50 years, and I've never been to war," said General He Lei, emphasising the urgent need for a shift in the PLA's approach to combat readiness.

However, recent developments have cast shadows on Xi's vision. Drawing inspiration from Russia's battalion tactical groups (BTGs), the PLA faced setbacks when flaws in Russia's BTGs were exposed.

PLA Daily, the army's news website, agreed that Russia's military strategy needed to be reconsidered. It wrote: "Deficiencies of Russia's battalion tactical groups have been exposed one after another, such as poor self-sufficiency in combat and inadequate logistical support."

The lack of effective combat training and doubts regarding the realism of recent exercises persist, challenging the PLA's ability to adapt swiftly to modern warfare. However, PLA Daily argued: "As we focus on real combat, exercises have become more realistic, pitting PLA troops against others simulating American or NATO tactics."

Xi Jinping and the PLA are now racing against time to transform into a force ready to face the challenges of 21st-century warfare, so they are not caught short again.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...52218115&ei=14