The CHN/ China thread

[ET2SN]

Sky, they're doing it because-

A). If/when the PRC does invade Taiwan, all of their soldiers will carry a copy of the TSMC logo with orders NOT to shoot at any building where they see it. That would be like roasting the goose that lays the golden eggs.
I believe the ROC Army will destroy those buildings as soon as they see the landing craft heading in.

B). A more practical matter, if the world has to shut down again due to a new COVID variant or an entirely new virus, its better to have multiple production and distribution sites. This helps prevent bottle necks like we've seen over the last two years.

It has nothing to do with politics, it has everything to do with survival.

[Jimbuna]

^ Pretty much how I see it

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Sky, they're doing it because-

A). If/when the PRC does invade Taiwan, all of their soldiers will carry a copy of the TSMC logo with orders NOT to shoot at any building where they see it. That would be like roasting the goose that lays the golden eggs.
I believe the ROC Army will destroy those buildings as soon as they see the landing craft heading in.

China will not unleash that war due to raitonal consideraitons or eocnomic reaosns, but due tpo hysteric sentiments and nationalism. In other words: for highly irrational reasons. Dont count on the logic you just laid out!
Also because they need Taiwan as access gate to the pacific especially for their submarines (which currently must leave harbour surfaced and stay on surface for long time before they can go really deep), but also for their surface fleet.

B). A more practical matter, if the world has to shut down again due to a new COVID variant or an entirely new virus, its better to have multiple production and distribution sites. This helps prevent bottle necks like we've seen over the last two years.

Thats more or less the argument I have. It has been reported that Wetsenr nations have mounte dpressure to make their support depending on Taiwans willingness to open chip production outside Taiwan, too, and to transfer capacities and knowledge - which is exactly AGAINST the Taiwanese strategic interest to make the world depending on defending Taiwan in place. Thbat they muist open factories outside Taiwan WEAKENS the original Taiwanse strategy - and might be a hint at how nations really see chances or are willing (=unwilling) to defend Taiwain.

[mapuc]

If and when they are attacking/invading Taiwan we will see how China's military strategy is and how their doctrine works in reality.
The same goes with the Taiwan military-How is they defence strategy and their doctrine works in reality.

A countries military doctrine, like the Chinese has been created in peacetime.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If and when they are attacking/invading Taiwan we will see how China's military strategy is and how their doctrine works in reality.
The same goes with the Taiwan military-How is they defence strategy and their doctrine works in reality.

A countries military doctrine, like the Chinese has been created in peacetime.

Markus

The losses on all participating sides will be extremely huge, I would expect.

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn projected the war index for 2030 in 2017 on the basis of demopgraphic trends and data available back then. These demographic trends change only slowly over time, so the trend the table indicates, probably still is more or less valid and correct. Explanation of what it is, is in the text at the top, if you have fogtten (I mentioned this index repeatedly over the years). Its about the ratio between old and young men in a society. Now look up states like USA, UK, Germany, Russia, China, Taiwan; or Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, various african crisis hotspots...


Note that this index does not indicate decisions made by foolish old criminal scumbags at the top of states, but reflect on the inner dynamics of population-wide drives and motivations, the energy of population that pushes things to certain developments all by itself. That Russia has a low war index and Putin declaring war, is no contradiction, both have nothign to do with each other. You need to see the numbers in comparison to the "real" sympathy of the population for the war. Would it have demanded this war all by itself, for nationalistic grandezza and young men's eagerness to prove themselves in war over a nationalistic or ideological/religous cause? Hardly.



Relevant the index also is for realising what the loss of mostly fighting men's life in the war means for the demographic future of the population.



War also incldues, always, to win by killing enemy soldiers. Whicxh might be difficult if the enemy has a bigegr supply of young men than the other side has bullets to kill them. Idf demiogroahcis during a long term war even chnage so that the war iondex climbs durign the conflict, this is not good news for the other side. This explaisn quite some of why the West as well as Russia failed in Afghanistan, Iraq.






I post this in the Ukraine and in the China thread.

[Skybird]

A shortage here would be far more desastrous than the shortage in gas. Gas can be replaced: chips not.

https://think--again-org.translate.g..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

No need to worry, everything is going to be fine

[Jimbuna]

Joe Biden has been speaking at a news conference after holding his first face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping since he became president.

He says he's not looking for "conflict" between the US and China, and there will not be a new Cold War.

The meeting comes at a time when relations between the two superpowers have soured.

Xi warned Biden against crossing a "red line" on Taiwan, according to Chinese state media.

The leaders are in Indonesia for the G20 meeting, which starts on Tuesday.

Taiwan is top of their agenda - Beijing claims the self-ruled island as part of its territory, Taiwan sees itself as distinct.

[Catfish]

^ "Peace in our time"

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan is at the core of China's core interests - Chinese defence minister

BEIJING (Reuters) -Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe on Tuesday told his U.S. counterpart that Taiwan is at the core of China's core interests and was a "red-line" that must not be crossed.

"The resolution of Taiwan is a matter for Chinese people, no external force has the right to interfere," Wei said at a meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of a gathering of Southeast Asian defence chiefs in Cambodia.

Wei said the United States must respect China's core interests and hoped it could adopt a rational, practical policy towards China, and get China-U.S. relations back on track.

Beijing has steadfastly viewed Taiwan as an inalienable part of China.

Earlier, Chinese state media quoted defence ministry spokesman Tan Kefei as saying the main reason for the current state of relations between China and the United States was that the United States made the wrong strategic judgment.

Tan said China was not responsible for the state of relations.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Kim Coghill, Robert Birsel)
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...3a63746a82ca67

[Jimbuna]

Don't INTERFERE in our relationship with India: China's BIG warning to US

Washington: China has warned American officials not to interfere in its relationship with India, the Pentagon has said in a report to Congress. Throughout its standoff with India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), Chinese officials sought to downplay the severity of the crisis, emphasising Beijing's intent to preserve border stability and prevent the standoff from harming other areas of its bilateral relationship with India, the Pentagon said in a report on Tuesday.

"The PRC (People's Republic of China) seeks to prevent border tensions from causing India to partner more closely with the United States. PRC officials have warned US Officials to not interfere with the PRC's relationship with India," the Pentagon said in its latest report to the Congress on Chinese military buildup.

In a section on the China-India border, the Pentagon said throughout 2021, the PLA sustained the deployment of forces and continued infrastructure build-up along the LAC. Negotiation made minimal progress as both sides resist losing perceived advantages on the border, it said.

Beginning in May 2020, Chinese and Indian forces faced off in clashes with rocks, batons, and clubs wrapped in barbed wire at multiple locations along the LAC. The resulting standoff triggered the buildup of forces on both sides of the border.

"Each country demanded the withdrawal of the other's forces and a return to pre-standoff conditions, but neither China nor India agreed on those conditions," it said.

"The PRC blamed the standoff on Indian infrastructure construction, which it perceived as encroaching on PRC territory, while India accused China of launching aggressive incursions into India's territory," it added.

Since the 2020 clash, the PLA has maintained a continuous force presence and continued infrastructure build-up along the LAC. The 2020 Galwan Valley incident was the deadliest clash between the two nations in the past 46 years, the report said.

On June 15th, 2020, patrols violently clashed in Galwan Valley resulting in the death of approximately twenty Indian soldiers and four PLA soldiers, according to PRC officials, it said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...72ba3c563526a9

[ET2SN]