The CHN/ China thread - Page 18

Catfish · 08-02-22, 09:17 AM

^ this is crazy

Really seeing it here on fr24 live.
I wonder what China is currently doing ..

mapuc · 08-02-22, 10:54 AM

......nothing of interest happened..The plane landed without any problems. And tomorrow she will leave.

From China there will come some angry words-Maybe they will send some group of bombers and fighters towards Taiwan, Before the border they will turn 180 degree and return home.

China is not interested in escalating it.

Markus

Skybird · 08-02-22, 02:00 PM

China has prepared huge military exercises with live firing in zones all around the island, encircling it from all directions.

What did I say about a blockade...

mapuc · 08-02-22, 02:16 PM

I remember what you wrote about China creating a blockade around Taiwan.

Have hope this exercise will only be show of force-a warning as before.

Then we have this article and video in the article nd-tv
Where the headlines is US-China headed for showdown.

I see this as nothing as dramatization from the news channel

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nanc...taiwan-3217705

For once I hope I'm right

Markus

Skybird · 08-03-22, 05:25 AM

I think if Bejing unleashes total war against Taiwan, or even tries to strangle it, it would be an allout assault on the global economy, and in principle it would be indeed a world war, necessarily: due to the vital and essential survival interests of national economies all around the globe.

Which means in reverse that in theory Taipehg shpoul.d be able to "blackmail" the West for m ilitary support and defence - due to the West'S very own vital interests.That especialyl Europe doe snot react to this, shows to things: once again the saddening military weakness and impotence of Europe, and due to the uinwillingness to really substantially change this: the intellectual deficit to indeed fully understand this. If you understand the consequences for sure, you CAN NOT carry on with ignoring them and do your things as if nothing happened, but when you keep on dpoing ignroing the danger, it shows that you have not really fully understand the scale of the threat.

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:

Should China really attack the chip stronghold Taiwan, the world economy would be threatened with disaster

Taiwan produces the world's best semiconductors and is an indispensable link in the global supply chain. Without companies on the island, hardly anything would work in areas such as electronic consumer goods, the automotive industry and the military. What is Nancy Pelosi risking with her visit?

The visit of the top representative of the U.S. Parliament to Taiwan exacerbates a decades-old crisis. Mainland China, which sees the island of Taiwan as a renegade province, is sending fighter planes and organizing shooting exercises in the sea around the island. Beijing is thus demonstrating its claim to power.

It is true that the Chinese regime is likely to refrain from attacking Taiwan precisely during Nancy Pelosi's visit. However, the current situation raises a question more urgent than ever before: What would happen if China actually attacked Taiwan, the world's most important chip stronghold?

But it has long been painted on the wall, by Xi Jinping himself. China's state and party leader said in January 2019 that he wants to force "reunification" with Taiwan by the People's Republic's 100th birthday, if necessary. That's 27 years from now.

For years now, Beijing has been ramping up pressure on Taipei with fighter jets in Taiwan's airspace, military drills, disinformation campaigns and threats against Taiwanese independence advocates. With Pelosi's visit, China's People's Liberation Army announced it will conduct at least six military exercises by the end of the week. The troops are expected to surround Taiwan and likely enter its territorial waters.

Besides the suffering a war would bring to the Taiwanese people, besides the security implications for the Asia-Pacific region and the geopolitical consequences for the rest of the world, the impact on global chip production would be catastrophic. "If this really happens, there will be a huge disruption in supply chains," an industry source, who asked not to be named, told NZZ a few months ago.

An analyst regarding semiconductors, who also wishes to remain unnamed, pointed to the global nature of the industry. According to the consulting firm Accenture, a chip product passes through a national border 70 times or more before it reaches the end customer. No country in the world can make chips on its own. But Taiwan is the place the rest of the world depends on most, dangerously so. The analyst said, "The industry is not prepared for regional tensions per se."

Taiwan's strength: TSMC and much more

What exactly is Taiwan's strength - and thus the rest of the world's dependence - based on? The short answer: Taiwan is home to the world's largest and third-largest contract manufacturers, TSMC and UMC. Further, the largest chip assembly and testing company, ASE, is also located in Taiwan. And the third largest manufacturer of wafers, the pizza-sized slices of silicon used to make chips, is also located on the island.
TSMC is clearly the largest contract manufacturer of chips

TSMC, written out as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, became known to a larger audience in the wake of the ongoing chip shortage. That's because TSMC is the undisputed largest chip contract manufacturer, with about 53 percent of the market, and the technological leader, ahead of South Korea's Samsung. Apple and Tesla, AMD and Nvidia - they all have their best chips produced at TSMC for smartphones, laptops, e-cars and graphics cards.

In addition, TSMC also produces less sophisticated chips in large quantities, for example for the automotive industry. Even proud chip manufacturers like Infineon from Munich dropped out of the expensive race for ever smaller, more powerful chips years ago. Infineon and Co. now order from TSMC and UMC.

When, as a result of misplanning and pandemic upheavals, German car factories ran out of chips and had to halt production, Germany's economy minister wrote a begging letter in February to the Taiwanese government, which officially does not even recognize Germany because of its One China policy. Other countries like Japan acted similarly. So strong, so uncomfortable is the global dependence on Taiwan's chip industry.

ASE, an unknown world market leader

Equally indispensable are the assembly and testing of chips. After all, the tiny silicon wafers do not function until they are assembled in packages and placed on circuit boards. ASE is the world market leader for such work, with a share of around 25 percent. The factories in the southern Taiwanese metropolis of Kaohsiung practically form an industrial area of their own.

In addition, there are many other such suppliers, so that Taiwanese companies - which, however, often produce cheaply in mainland China or elsewhere - cover more than half of global demand in this segment.

Even in a research-intensive field like chip design, where the U.S. is clearly number one, tiny Taiwan, with a population of just over 23 million, is strong and number two. Of the ten largest companies, six are from the USA, three from Taiwan, and in tenth place is one from Europe, according to an evaluation by the Berlin-based Stiftung Neue Verantwortung.

Finally - and this is less well known - Taiwan is an important location for substrates and laminates with which the silicon is coated. Many of these chemicals are not even produced in Europe in this quantity and purity. In Taiwan, however, European companies also produce. According to a spokeswoman, the German company BASF, for example, produces "chemicals for the highest requirements of the semiconductor industry, primarily to supply local customers in Taiwan" in Guanyin near Taipei.

In short, Taiwan is the most diverse chip stronghold in the world. Its strength comes from all the big companies, but much more from the unique density of this cluster, including many small, unknown suppliers. That's why the industry source mentioned said, "If you look at the processor chip market segment, from basic Intel x86 processors to high-end processors for smartphones, about 80 percent goes through Taiwan today." Corresponding industrial parks stretch from the north to the south of the island - on the west side facing China.

The "silicon shield"

This unique ecosystem also plays an important role in the question of a possible war. Journalist Craig Addison described the chip industry as Taiwan's "silicon shield" a good twenty years ago. Because Taipei's closest ally, the U.S., and ultimately all industrialized countries depend so heavily on TSMC and Co. economically and technologically that they will try to keep China from invading for that reason alone. The Taiwanese government knows this, of course, and is steadily strengthening the silicon shield, which has become a common word in Taiwan.

At the same time, China also remains very dependent on Taiwan's chip industry. How that affects the likelihood of war is debatable. Addison believed, as do some experts today, that China will not attack Taiwan because of this dependence. That's because an invasion could destroy key factories, among other things, including acts of sabotage by the Taiwanese; and highly specialized engineers, especially foreigners, would likely flee.

The American analysis firm IC Insights, however, recently came to the opposite conclusion: China could attack Taiwan precisely because of its chip industry. This is because China continues to lag several years behind technologically, despite billions in subsidies. The race to catch up is made more difficult by U.S. sanctions against the Chinese chip champions SMIC and Hisilicon, a Huawei subsidiary. By invading, IC Insights claims, China could hijack Taiwan's capabilities.

Foreigners continue to invest in Taiwan

Within the industry itself, these concrete considerations seem to play little role. A source at a semiconductor firm in Taiwan familiar with her employer's strategic risk management says a war scenario is too narrow. "The overarching scenario is the U.S.-China conflict. And then it's about what follows from that."

Semiconductor expert Jan-Peter Kleinhans of the New Responsibility Foundation reported a similar story from his research talks: "In politics, people talk about Taiwan all the time, but in industry, nobody talks about it unless I bring it up." Indeed, foreign chip suppliers continue to expand in Taiwan, such as Merck, a German manufacturer of specialty materials.

In general, any change in chip production takes a lot of lead time, so complex are the processes. McKinsey writes in an analysis that even the production of a well-established product requires four months of lead time. If the chips are to be produced in a different plant, an additional six months must be expected. And if you wanted to change manufacturers, you would have to adapt the chip design to their production processes - and add another year. All in all, that would be a lead time of 22 months.

Because of this complexity, the industry also speaks of a "lock-in" effect: Once you become a TSMC customer, your own products become increasingly intertwined with the manufacturer's processes. TSMC is cleverly promoting this effect by increasingly offering assembly and testing of chips itself over the past few years. An insider says: "TSMC is throwing a big vacuum cleaner to have all the know-how with it. The more know-how also of the customer is at TSMC, the less the customer will be inclined to leave TSMC."

TSMC plant in Dresden?

But at least some governments are already trying geographic diversification in chip production. To be sure, they would hardly cite the threat of war over Taiwan as a justification. But many arguments are at least related: national security, technological sovereignty, security of supply.

Governments are courting TSMC, of all things. The USA under Donald Trump, with more or less gentle pressure, was the first to obtain a commitment for a plant in May 2020. The fact that TSMC manufactures special chips for American fighter jets probably played a role in this. Japan was also recently able to persuade TSMC to open a plant in the country with high subsidies. In mainland China, TSMC is expanding its only non-Taiwanese site to date. Even in Europe, there are discussions about a possible TSMC plant, specifically in Dresden.

However, this is unlikely to weaken the global dependence on Taiwan, if only because TSMC wants to continue to operate the majority of its plants at home and produce its best chips there.

-----------------

Xi has ordered terrible mistakes in the Corona pandemic and has done monumental damage to China's economy. So, he is anything but infallible, which of course contradicts the offical propaganda describing his clan (thats what the Xi dynasty really is about: establishing the eternal and imperial tyranny of their family clan), and he is turnign into an old man. And we currently learn again in the ukraine and have learned often before what murderous barbary old tyrants at the end of their life are becoming capable of, when their scruples have petrified and their intellectual capacity diminishes.

Europe should be able to play a military and seginficant role in the defence of Taiwan. Unfortunately, once again and like in so many others international political issues, it isn't.

There will be a day when it dawns on us Europeans that once again we repeated the same old terrible mistakes we have committed already so often before. And I think that day is not too far away while we still live through the leanrign experience of such a day right now, over the ukriane experience. The war over Taiwan will come. And likely is that there will be a widening into or another war between the US and China over the dominant role in the Western and whole pacific. I just think the Us will shy away from getting fully enagged into war in exclsuzivbe defence of Taiwan, I think they will mroe try to handle it like they handle the Ukraine war. But late rin that war they maybe will reassess things and learn that this luxury they can no longer afford - for vital self-intertests. The lopnger Taiwan can resist to a Chinese attack, the more china will focus on destroying Taiwan as an economy, and the stronger the chance becomes that the US nevertheless enters the war in full at a later stage.

In both cases Europe has senetence ditself top the role of a helpless watcher and victim of consequences. Sorry, Brkitian, France: your forces in SE Asia simply are too small in quantity in the large scheme of things. even more so since naval battles are less likely to trigger or turn into escalating global nuclear exchanges.

In the end Xi is, like Putin, just an ordinary street criminal who abuses opportunity to plunder a country for his own clan's wealth.

Jimbuna · 08-03-22, 05:41 AM

Top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan after meeting its President Tsai Ing-wen, despite warnings from China not to do so.

She praised Taiwan as an island of resilience and said the US commitment to democracy there was iron-clad.

China says it will hold a series of live-fire military drills in the air and sea around the island from Thursday.

Taiwan says the move violates the island's sovereignty and amounts to a blockade.

The US speaker's trip, which was not backed by President Biden, was the first by such a senior US official in 25 years.

Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the Chinese mainland - as a breakaway province that it aims to take.

Jimbuna · 08-03-22, 05:53 AM

Quote:

Pelosi visit: Taiwan puts the ball firmly in Xi Jinping's court

The danger with escalation is that it is hard to pull back.

Now that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has managed to visit Taiwan - the highest-ranking American official to do so in 25 years - won't others want to do the same in the future?

Now that China has held major live fire exercises of such a scale, so close to Taiwan, why not do that again? Each time Chinese fighter jets fly nearer to the island or in greater numbers, a new standard of "normality" is established. So, if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) doesn't fly as close next time, what message is it sending?

Not so long ago, Beijing's plan with Taiwan involved engagement. Young people from the mainland were backpacking around the breakaway province claimed by China, and businesses from Taiwan were popping up all over China.

However, the approach under Chinese President Xi Jinping has become much more belligerent, with ever more pressure being applied on Taipei.

Those with more militaristic tendencies in the upper echelons of power here must have secretly welcomed the visit by Ms Pelosi. It has provided an ideal excuse to ramp up the war games around Taiwan in preparation for what they see as the inevitable day when it will be seized by force.

The biggest challenge perhaps for regional stability is that everyone's public position on Taiwan is ridiculous. It's like a giant game of pretend which is becoming harder to maintain.

China pretends that Taiwan is currently part of its territory, even though the island collects its own taxes, votes in its own government, issues its own passports and has its own military.

The US pretends it is not treating Taiwan as an independent country, even though it sells it high-tech weapons and, occasionally, a high-ranking politician visits on what looks very much like an official trip.

It's apparent that it would take nothing for this flimsy show, designed to guarantee the status quo, to fall apart.

The danger for the world is that there are those in Beijing who would like to see it fall apart.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62402935

Read the full article via the link, it is interesting, well written and imho balanced.

Jimbuna · 08-03-22, 10:31 AM

mapuc · 08-03-22, 10:33 AM

Hasn't it been tension before ?
Seems to recall some tension a couple of years back.

Markus

Jimbuna · 08-03-22, 10:54 AM

The Taiwan Straits Crises: 1954–55 and 1958

https://history.state.gov/milestones...-strait-crises

mapuc · 08-03-22, 12:22 PM

Thank you Jim- So it has been from my historical memory I got it from.

And not to something off topic and still related to Taiwan

Some guys who call them self Grim Reapers has made a what-if video based on the game DCS

"Could Pelosi's Jet Be Protected From Chinese Interceptors When Leaving Taiwan?"

I removed the video-Not going to much off topic.

Markus

Catfish · 08-03-22, 03:30 PM

No limits is a misunderstanding

"China’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday attempted to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia, suggesting there’s been a “misunderstanding” of China-Russia relations amid Moscow's assault on Ukraine."

“This is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” Ambassador Qin Gang said. “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...-99/ar-AAZNtqF

Skybird · 08-03-22, 04:10 PM

Somewhat entertaining at least.

Jimbuna · 08-04-22, 06:21 AM

China has launched several ballistic missiles into waters around Taiwan's north-east and south-west coasts, Taiwan says.

The launches are part of live fire military drills - China's biggest-ever in the region - around the island.

This follows top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to Taipei in the face of warnings from Beijing.

Some of the affected areas are just 12 miles (19km) off the island - the closest Beijing's military exercises have ever come.

Taiwan says the move, which stops ships and planes from using the space, violates its sovereignty and amounts to a blockade.

China sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the mainland - as a breakaway province that will eventually be under its control.

This comes at a time when US-China tensions have been growing.

Jimbuna · 08-04-22, 06:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

No limits is a misunderstanding

"China’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday attempted to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia, suggesting there’s been a “misunderstanding” of China-Russia relations amid Moscow's assault on Ukraine."

“This is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” Ambassador Qin Gang said. “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...-99/ar-AAZNtqF

Making efforts to distance themselves from a pariah no doubt.

China's achilles' heel being there dependency on trade with the west.

08-02-22, 09:17 AM	#256
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	^ this is crazy Really seeing it here on fr24 live. I wonder what China is currently doing .. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

08-02-22, 10:54 AM	#257
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,887 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	......nothing of interest happened..The plane landed without any problems. And tomorrow she will leave. From China there will come some angry words-Maybe they will send some group of bombers and fighters towards Taiwan, Before the border they will turn 180 degree and return home. China is not interested in escalating it. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

08-02-22, 02:00 PM	#258
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,496 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	China has prepared huge military exercises with live firing in zones all around the island, encircling it from all directions. What did I say about a blockade... __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-02-22, 02:16 PM	#259
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,887 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	I remember what you wrote about China creating a blockade around Taiwan. Have hope this exercise will only be show of force-a warning as before. Then we have this article and video in the article nd-tv Where the headlines is US-China headed for showdown. I see this as nothing as dramatization from the news channel https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/nanc...taiwan-3217705 For once I hope I'm right Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

08-03-22, 05:25 AM	#260
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,496 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	I think if Bejing unleashes total war against Taiwan, or even tries to strangle it, it would be an allout assault on the global economy, and in principle it would be indeed a world war, necessarily: due to the vital and essential survival interests of national economies all around the globe. Which means in reverse that in theory Taipehg shpoul.d be able to "blackmail" the West for m ilitary support and defence - due to the West'S very own vital interests.That especialyl Europe doe snot react to this, shows to things: once again the saddening military weakness and impotence of Europe, and due to the uinwillingness to really substantially change this: the intellectual deficit to indeed fully understand this. If you understand the consequences for sure, you CAN NOT carry on with ignoring them and do your things as if nothing happened, but when you keep on dpoing ignroing the danger, it shows that you have not really fully understand the scale of the threat. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes: Should China really attack the chip stronghold Taiwan, the world economy would be threatened with disaster Taiwan produces the world's best semiconductors and is an indispensable link in the global supply chain. Without companies on the island, hardly anything would work in areas such as electronic consumer goods, the automotive industry and the military. What is Nancy Pelosi risking with her visit? The visit of the top representative of the U.S. Parliament to Taiwan exacerbates a decades-old crisis. Mainland China, which sees the island of Taiwan as a renegade province, is sending fighter planes and organizing shooting exercises in the sea around the island. Beijing is thus demonstrating its claim to power. It is true that the Chinese regime is likely to refrain from attacking Taiwan precisely during Nancy Pelosi's visit. However, the current situation raises a question more urgent than ever before: What would happen if China actually attacked Taiwan, the world's most important chip stronghold? But it has long been painted on the wall, by Xi Jinping himself. China's state and party leader said in January 2019 that he wants to force "reunification" with Taiwan by the People's Republic's 100th birthday, if necessary. That's 27 years from now. For years now, Beijing has been ramping up pressure on Taipei with fighter jets in Taiwan's airspace, military drills, disinformation campaigns and threats against Taiwanese independence advocates. With Pelosi's visit, China's People's Liberation Army announced it will conduct at least six military exercises by the end of the week. The troops are expected to surround Taiwan and likely enter its territorial waters. Besides the suffering a war would bring to the Taiwanese people, besides the security implications for the Asia-Pacific region and the geopolitical consequences for the rest of the world, the impact on global chip production would be catastrophic. "If this really happens, there will be a huge disruption in supply chains," an industry source, who asked not to be named, told NZZ a few months ago. An analyst regarding semiconductors, who also wishes to remain unnamed, pointed to the global nature of the industry. According to the consulting firm Accenture, a chip product passes through a national border 70 times or more before it reaches the end customer. No country in the world can make chips on its own. But Taiwan is the place the rest of the world depends on most, dangerously so. The analyst said, "The industry is not prepared for regional tensions per se." Taiwan's strength: TSMC and much more What exactly is Taiwan's strength - and thus the rest of the world's dependence - based on? The short answer: Taiwan is home to the world's largest and third-largest contract manufacturers, TSMC and UMC. Further, the largest chip assembly and testing company, ASE, is also located in Taiwan. And the third largest manufacturer of wafers, the pizza-sized slices of silicon used to make chips, is also located on the island. TSMC is clearly the largest contract manufacturer of chips TSMC, written out as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, became known to a larger audience in the wake of the ongoing chip shortage. That's because TSMC is the undisputed largest chip contract manufacturer, with about 53 percent of the market, and the technological leader, ahead of South Korea's Samsung. Apple and Tesla, AMD and Nvidia - they all have their best chips produced at TSMC for smartphones, laptops, e-cars and graphics cards. In addition, TSMC also produces less sophisticated chips in large quantities, for example for the automotive industry. Even proud chip manufacturers like Infineon from Munich dropped out of the expensive race for ever smaller, more powerful chips years ago. Infineon and Co. now order from TSMC and UMC. When, as a result of misplanning and pandemic upheavals, German car factories ran out of chips and had to halt production, Germany's economy minister wrote a begging letter in February to the Taiwanese government, which officially does not even recognize Germany because of its One China policy. Other countries like Japan acted similarly. So strong, so uncomfortable is the global dependence on Taiwan's chip industry. ASE, an unknown world market leader Equally indispensable are the assembly and testing of chips. After all, the tiny silicon wafers do not function until they are assembled in packages and placed on circuit boards. ASE is the world market leader for such work, with a share of around 25 percent. The factories in the southern Taiwanese metropolis of Kaohsiung practically form an industrial area of their own. In addition, there are many other such suppliers, so that Taiwanese companies - which, however, often produce cheaply in mainland China or elsewhere - cover more than half of global demand in this segment. Even in a research-intensive field like chip design, where the U.S. is clearly number one, tiny Taiwan, with a population of just over 23 million, is strong and number two. Of the ten largest companies, six are from the USA, three from Taiwan, and in tenth place is one from Europe, according to an evaluation by the Berlin-based Stiftung Neue Verantwortung. Finally - and this is less well known - Taiwan is an important location for substrates and laminates with which the silicon is coated. Many of these chemicals are not even produced in Europe in this quantity and purity. In Taiwan, however, European companies also produce. According to a spokeswoman, the German company BASF, for example, produces "chemicals for the highest requirements of the semiconductor industry, primarily to supply local customers in Taiwan" in Guanyin near Taipei. In short, Taiwan is the most diverse chip stronghold in the world. Its strength comes from all the big companies, but much more from the unique density of this cluster, including many small, unknown suppliers. That's why the industry source mentioned said, "If you look at the processor chip market segment, from basic Intel x86 processors to high-end processors for smartphones, about 80 percent goes through Taiwan today." Corresponding industrial parks stretch from the north to the south of the island - on the west side facing China. The "silicon shield" This unique ecosystem also plays an important role in the question of a possible war. Journalist Craig Addison described the chip industry as Taiwan's "silicon shield" a good twenty years ago. Because Taipei's closest ally, the U.S., and ultimately all industrialized countries depend so heavily on TSMC and Co. economically and technologically that they will try to keep China from invading for that reason alone. The Taiwanese government knows this, of course, and is steadily strengthening the silicon shield, which has become a common word in Taiwan. At the same time, China also remains very dependent on Taiwan's chip industry. How that affects the likelihood of war is debatable. Addison believed, as do some experts today, that China will not attack Taiwan because of this dependence. That's because an invasion could destroy key factories, among other things, including acts of sabotage by the Taiwanese; and highly specialized engineers, especially foreigners, would likely flee. The American analysis firm IC Insights, however, recently came to the opposite conclusion: China could attack Taiwan precisely because of its chip industry. This is because China continues to lag several years behind technologically, despite billions in subsidies. The race to catch up is made more difficult by U.S. sanctions against the Chinese chip champions SMIC and Hisilicon, a Huawei subsidiary. By invading, IC Insights claims, China could hijack Taiwan's capabilities. Foreigners continue to invest in Taiwan Within the industry itself, these concrete considerations seem to play little role. A source at a semiconductor firm in Taiwan familiar with her employer's strategic risk management says a war scenario is too narrow. "The overarching scenario is the U.S.-China conflict. And then it's about what follows from that." Semiconductor expert Jan-Peter Kleinhans of the New Responsibility Foundation reported a similar story from his research talks: "In politics, people talk about Taiwan all the time, but in industry, nobody talks about it unless I bring it up." Indeed, foreign chip suppliers continue to expand in Taiwan, such as Merck, a German manufacturer of specialty materials. In general, any change in chip production takes a lot of lead time, so complex are the processes. McKinsey writes in an analysis that even the production of a well-established product requires four months of lead time. If the chips are to be produced in a different plant, an additional six months must be expected. And if you wanted to change manufacturers, you would have to adapt the chip design to their production processes - and add another year. All in all, that would be a lead time of 22 months. Because of this complexity, the industry also speaks of a "lock-in" effect: Once you become a TSMC customer, your own products become increasingly intertwined with the manufacturer's processes. TSMC is cleverly promoting this effect by increasingly offering assembly and testing of chips itself over the past few years. An insider says: "TSMC is throwing a big vacuum cleaner to have all the know-how with it. The more know-how also of the customer is at TSMC, the less the customer will be inclined to leave TSMC." TSMC plant in Dresden? But at least some governments are already trying geographic diversification in chip production. To be sure, they would hardly cite the threat of war over Taiwan as a justification. But many arguments are at least related: national security, technological sovereignty, security of supply. Governments are courting TSMC, of all things. The USA under Donald Trump, with more or less gentle pressure, was the first to obtain a commitment for a plant in May 2020. The fact that TSMC manufactures special chips for American fighter jets probably played a role in this. Japan was also recently able to persuade TSMC to open a plant in the country with high subsidies. In mainland China, TSMC is expanding its only non-Taiwanese site to date. Even in Europe, there are discussions about a possible TSMC plant, specifically in Dresden. However, this is unlikely to weaken the global dependence on Taiwan, if only because TSMC wants to continue to operate the majority of its plants at home and produce its best chips there. ----------------- Xi has ordered terrible mistakes in the Corona pandemic and has done monumental damage to China's economy. So, he is anything but infallible, which of course contradicts the offical propaganda describing his clan (thats what the Xi dynasty really is about: establishing the eternal and imperial tyranny of their family clan), and he is turnign into an old man. And we currently learn again in the ukraine and have learned often before what murderous barbary old tyrants at the end of their life are becoming capable of, when their scruples have petrified and their intellectual capacity diminishes. Europe should be able to play a military and seginficant role in the defence of Taiwan. Unfortunately, once again and like in so many others international political issues, it isn't. There will be a day when it dawns on us Europeans that once again we repeated the same old terrible mistakes we have committed already so often before. And I think that day is not too far away while we still live through the leanrign experience of such a day right now, over the ukriane experience. The war over Taiwan will come. And likely is that there will be a widening into or another war between the US and China over the dominant role in the Western and whole pacific. I just think the Us will shy away from getting fully enagged into war in exclsuzivbe defence of Taiwan, I think they will mroe try to handle it like they handle the Ukraine war. But late rin that war they maybe will reassess things and learn that this luxury they can no longer afford - for vital self-intertests. The lopnger Taiwan can resist to a Chinese attack, the more china will focus on destroying Taiwan as an economy, and the stronger the chance becomes that the US nevertheless enters the war in full at a later stage. In both cases Europe has senetence ditself top the role of a helpless watcher and victim of consequences. Sorry, Brkitian, France: your forces in SE Asia simply are too small in quantity in the large scheme of things. even more so since naval battles are less likely to trigger or turn into escalating global nuclear exchanges. In the end Xi is, like Putin, just an ordinary street criminal who abuses opportunity to plunder a country for his own clan's wealth. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-03-22, 05:41 AM	#261
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,198 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	Top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi leaves Taiwan after meeting its President Tsai Ing-wen, despite warnings from China not to do so. She praised Taiwan as an island of resilience and said the US commitment to democracy there was iron-clad. China says it will hold a series of live-fire military drills in the air and sea around the island from Thursday. Taiwan says the move violates the island's sovereignty and amounts to a blockade. The US speaker's trip, which was not backed by President Biden, was the first by such a senior US official in 25 years. Beijing sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the Chinese mainland - as a breakaway province that it aims to take. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

08-03-22, 10:31 AM	#263
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,198 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	__________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

08-03-22, 10:33 AM	#264
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,887 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Hasn't it been tension before ? Seems to recall some tension a couple of years back. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

08-03-22, 10:54 AM	#265
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,198 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	The Taiwan Straits Crises: 1954–55 and 1958 https://history.state.gov/milestones...-strait-crises __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

08-03-22, 12:22 PM	#266
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,887 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Thank you Jim- So it has been from my historical memory I got it from. And not to something off topic and still related to Taiwan Some guys who call them self Grim Reapers has made a what-if video based on the game DCS "Could Pelosi's Jet Be Protected From Chinese Interceptors When Leaving Taiwan?" I removed the video-Not going to much off topic. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat Last edited by mapuc; 08-03-22 at 12:31 PM.

08-03-22, 03:30 PM	#267
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	No limits is a misunderstanding "China’s ambassador to the United States on Wednesday attempted to walk back his country’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia, suggesting there’s been a “misunderstanding” of China-Russia relations amid Moscow's assault on Ukraine." “This is a misunderstanding of China-Russia relations,” Ambassador Qin Gang said. “China-Russia relationship is not an alliance.” https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...-99/ar-AAZNtqF __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

08-03-22, 04:10 PM	#268
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,496 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Somewhat entertaining at least. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

08-04-22, 06:21 AM	#269
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,198 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	China has launched several ballistic missiles into waters around Taiwan's north-east and south-west coasts, Taiwan says. The launches are part of live fire military drills - China's biggest-ever in the region - around the island. This follows top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi's controversial visit to Taipei in the face of warnings from Beijing. Some of the affected areas are just 12 miles (19km) off the island - the closest Beijing's military exercises have ever come. Taiwan says the move, which stops ships and planes from using the space, violates its sovereignty and amounts to a blockade. China sees self-ruled Taiwan - which lies 100 miles from the mainland - as a breakaway province that will eventually be under its control. This comes at a time when US-China tensions have been growing. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)