GER politics thread

[Catfish]

"German industry is grinding to a halt"
For the first time in a generation, the country has an export deficit

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ding-to-a-halt

[Jimbuna]

In truth, the German industrial export machine was fuelled by cheap energy from Russia – and that fuel could soon run dry, as Wolfgang Münchau wrote in last week’s magazine. For most of the post-war era, Germany has prided itself on very low inflation, a stable currency, and a huge trade surplus. Right now, it has a very Italian or Greek mix of 8 per cent inflation, a crumbling currency, and a rising trade deficit. Many other countries are used to that, but for Germans it will come as a shock.

Sounds about right imho

[Catfish]

While energy minister Habeck tries to bail out crumbling gas companies (Uniper now has a loss of 900 million Euros per month), the bills for energy in form of gas will probably be 900 percent higher towards the end of the year.

While electric energy, its prices and scarcity can of course be blamed on the green ideas of banishing nuclear and coal altogether, even the greens are now doing what is needed for immediate survival and reactivating this 'obsolete' technology.
Bad idea to switch to a new technology, that does not yet exist in numbers necessary to make up for the losses..

Other energy sources like the russian gas deliveries breaking away cannot be absorbed as "easily" though. Norway and Finland can help and do this, also the US via LPG, but probably not to the amount needed to keep prices halfways stable. Interesting times ahead ..

[Jimbuna]

Good luck with that Kai.....my monthly energy bill went up yesterday from £70 to £163

[Skybird]

The Russia sanctions and Corona measures are having their full effect, ending Germany's business model: The world export champion has been relegated to the 2nd Bundesliga. The export surplus has been pulverized to just a marginal 0.5 billion euros in May. This means that the trade surplus in the first five months of 2022 fell by 70.7 percent year-on-year.

Germany is losing massive productivity and competitiveness, which will cost jobs, social security and prosperity. Who should be the number and transfer master in Europe in the future to steadily save the EU and the euro?

Italy? France? Spain? Joking aside, Germany will no longer be able to afford it if you destroy its industrial base and have no new one. One has catapulted oneself into the sidelines by political wrong decisions and a hubris. The question that then arises: Will the EU and the euro survive?

The chances are dwindling in parallel with the economic destruction of the German economy. Which would bring even more dislocation. So we see a vicious circle that reinforces each other. A solution is not in sight far and wide. Quite the contrary.

If we were to be honest, we would have to admit that we are standing in front of the shambles of a grandly failed energy policy that was ideologically blinded, pulled through come hell or high water. While we switch off, everyone else switches on. The fact that the EU has now also classified gas and nuclear as "green" with the taxonomy is a gong on the 12 and the total declaration of bankruptcy of the German energy policy of recent years. It must also be admitted that the Russia sanctions have failed and are hitting us the hardest, while Putin is earning more money than ever with his gas and oil sales.

We must not forget: Germany is dependent on cheap raw materials and their availability. While we are losing the basis for our economy and security of supply, other countries such as India, China, Brazil and Turkey are only too happy to buy the important raw materials from Russia. Which brings us back to the issue of competitiveness and productivity. It is particularly amusing that India resells Russian gas to us at a higher price. You can't make this up....

The former draught horse of the German economy, the car manufacturers, can be held up as a prime example of the decline. In 2021, production already fell by 11.7% to lose another 2.9% year-on-year in the first half of the year. Whether our car companies will complete the transformation process and survive is written in the stars. Likewise, whether the mobile future is actually electric and where the electricity required for this (I won't even start on the raw materials) is actually supposed to come from? The fact is that neither the sun nor the wind are currently capable of providing a base load.

"What a time to be alive. This English saying is truer than ever, because we are living history. Everyone can feel it: the turning point is in full swing and things are crumbling on all sides. In view of this overall situation, I find it particularly sporting that German politicians are now taking 2 months off for a relaxed summer vacation, while we are in the midst of the biggest crisis in decades due to war, inflation, energy crisis and broken supply chains - much of which the summer vacationers have brought upon us themselves. "Bella Ciao"

Marc Friedrich is a bestselling author and financial expert. His new bestseller The Greatest Opportunity of All Time was chosen by Buchreport as the most successful business book of 2021. I red another book by him some years ago: very competent, but worrying to read already back then.

[Skybird]

Some interesting background on Hendryk Broder. I leave the German link, everybody who is interested, can translate it via Google or DeepL.


https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/henryk...eit-ld.1692744

Die ersten Wochen waren durch den Wunsch bestimmt, die Ukrainer mögen ehrenvoll verlieren. Sie sollen bitte aufhören, weil es die Deutschen beschämt, dass es so ein Volk wie die Ukrainer, das sich selbst verteidigt, überhaupt gibt.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Olaf Scholz accused of breaking Nato promise

Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, has been accused of breaking a landmark promise to boost defence spending to meet Nato’s two per cent target following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Three days after the war began on Feb 24, Mr Scholz vowed that Germany would immediately start spending more on its underfunded military, winning acclaim for pronouncing the start of a “new era”.

“From now on, we will invest more than two per cent of gross domestic product in our defence every year,” he said.

But a new financial plan by Christian Lindner, the finance minister, which will run until 2026, shows Germany will not even get close to the Nato target for several years.

The budget is “a stark contrast to the Chancellor’s announcements”, Ingo Gadechens, a CDU politician who spent more than 30 years in Germany’s navy, told Bild.

Defence spending will be equal to only 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2022, according to the government, rising to a maximum of 1.7 per cent in 2023. Only over a five-year average does the finance ministry hope to edge closer to fulfilling its two per cent pledge.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...out&li=BBoPWjQ

[Skybird]

Didnt I warn everybody to take that pathetic promise serious, and that I dont believe it before I see it?

[Jimbuna]

You most certainly did

[Catfish]

As said before i cannot eat enough to vomit (as the cause demands)

[Skybird]

And I dont have enough room to set up as many bathtubs as I could fill with vomits every day.

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:


In an interview with the Neue Züricher Zeitung (NZZ), Michael Shellenberger criticizes the German energy turnaround, the role of the Greens and the handling of climate change. For the US-American author, "apocalyptic thinking comes mainly from Germany.

Michael Shellenberger questions central beliefs of the climate movement in an interview with the "NZZ". For the U.S. author, climate change is real "and man-made." Nevertheless, cold would still cause more deaths than the currently prevailing heat waves. The "ecomodernist" bases this on a study in the British journal "The Lancet," in which scientists found that in England and Wales "cold kills over 70 times as many people as heat."

Shellenberger is sharply critical of Germany's energy transition, contradicting ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel, who spoke out as a proponent of phasing out nuclear power, citing hazardous radioactive waste as the reason. "That's not so true," says the U.S. author. During a recent visit to a waste repository in the Netherlands, he says, sufficient waste management solutions were in place. According to Shellenberger, "safety precautions were perfectly observed on site."

"It (nuclear power) is almost without risk," he says, elaborating, "The debate about nuclear power has taken on a spiritual quality. If you imagine that renewables are a positive pole, nuclear is the opposite. Nuclear power is demonic in the mind of the Greens in Germany, renewables are angelic, and fossil fuels are an unfortunate but viable alternative to nuclear power. That's why Germany's Greens decided to keep coal-fired plants in operation longer than nuclear plants."

For Shellenberger, the Greens are "still Marxists" who celebrated their peak in the last elections. He is convinced "that the energy crisis will lead to a decline in support" and sees powerful problems ahead. "If Europe doesn't have adequate energy supplies, there will be social unrest. Governments will fall," Shellenberger said.

One example? The speed limit, of which Shellenberger is no fan. "A reduced speed on the highway would have only a very, very small impact on petroleum consumption and no impact at all on electricity consumption or natural gas consumption," he contends. "Apparently, the Greens need the speed limit in exchange for agreeing to extend nuclear power plant lifetimes. This is symbolic politics."

Shellenberger disagrees with the slogan "We don't have time" shared by German Foreign Minister Annalena baerbock. "That, too, is apocalyptic discourse of the kind we know from cults." He also has a clear opinion on well-known activists. "If you listen to Greta Thunberg or 'Extinction Rebellion,' the conclusion is that we must stop all emissions immediately. But if we stop all energy consumption, we stop civilization."

He calls Germany a negative example in dealing with climate change and the resulting consequences, "The apocalyptic thinking comes mainly from Germany. The German people and government have an alarmist view of climate change, which exists all over the world. CO emissions have been unchanged over the past ten years. So we are successful. So why do people see a catastrophe? I think there are three motivations for this apocalyptic discourse: money, power, and religion. Climate change has become a kind of ersatz religion."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Jimbuna]

Germany's leading energy expert says she's living in a nightmare. What's worse, she saw it coming.

For 15 years Claudia Kemfert says she tried to warn politicians and the public that the country was too reliant on Russian energy.

Until recently Germany bought more than half of its gas from Russia. She advised Berlin to find other sources and focus more on renewables. And she warned against the construction of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline through which Germany receives much of its gas.

"That's what I did over the last 15 years, repeating and repeating and repeating. Hoping that what's happened now would never happen," she says, her frustration evident.

Vladimir Putin's decision to, in effect, weaponise Russian gas exports has sent Germany into a tailspin. Moscow has blamed essential maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline for a recent reduction, then complete shut-off, of supply.

Few in Berlin are buying that. Even fewer believe Russia can be trusted to deliver what Germany needs for the coming winter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62234188

[Skybird]

A title too good to be missed. From the Neue Zürcher Zeitung.




Now I am afraid of him. He is so tough.