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Old 06-06-23, 05:10 AM   #11206
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Kakhovka dam attack!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65818705
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Old 06-06-23, 05:10 AM   #11207
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The latest in a long growing list of war crimes.

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Old 06-06-23, 05:12 AM   #11208
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Old 06-06-23, 05:29 AM   #11209
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I am not certain that it was delberate Russian intent. Possible, but not proven. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung has some good reasoning on the possible scenarios:

----------

The water of the second largest Ukrainian reservoir floods huge areas, while upstream it is now suddenly missing. Who or what is responsible for the destruction remains speculative - but a deliberate blow-up would require a great deal of cynicism.

The breach of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine has caused dramatic flooding within hours. Videos show how various pieces of the once 22-meter-high dam are now lying amid the floodwaters. Water from Ukraine's second-largest reservoir, which holds a maximum of 18.2 billion cubic meters, is pouring uncontrollably into the Black Sea.
Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam with terrorist intent. EU Council President Charles Michel also announced that Moscow would be held accountable for this "war crime." The dam and electricity plant have been under Russian occupation since last year.

The local representative of the Russian occupation authorities, on the other hand, spoke of an explosion in the early hours of the morning for which Kiev was responsible. After the Tass news agency initially wrote only of a "destruction" without shelling, late in the morning it suspected a Ukrainian attack with multiple rocket launchers behind it. A video of an explosion is also circulating on the Internet. However, this is from November 2022.

According to the authorities, the water level in the second largest reservoir along the so-called Dnipro Cascade is dropping by 15 centimeters per hour. 80 localities are expected to be flooded. Since the dam is located directly on the southern front, both Ukrainian-controlled and Russian-occupied towns and villages are affected. The Ukrainians spoke of 16,000 people living in the "critical zone," the Russians of 22,000.
However, the Russian-occupied territories on the left bank of the Dnipro River are likely to be more exposed to flooding due to the topography. While the Moscow-installed mayor of Nova Kakhovka initially downplayed the danger, pictures show that the town next to the dam is meters under water. Settlements downstream are also flooded.

Evacuations have already begun in Ukrainian-controlled areas. Parts of the city of Kherson are also under water.

It remains unclear for the time being who or what is responsible for the destruction of the dam. An accident seems quite plausible, as the level had been at a record high for some time. The American journalist Geoff Brumfiel assumes that the Russian occupiers did not properly handle the water masses accumulated by the melting snow. As evidence, he cites, among other things, satellite images showing how the road on the dam was washed away as early as the beginning of June.

Presumably, the crossing and the power plant had also already been damaged during the fighting around Kherson last fall. At that time, the Ukrainians launched a rocket attack on the road next to it. During their withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnipro River, the Russians also detonated an explosive charge. There has also been recent fighting in the area, though apparently not in the immediate vicinity of the dam.

If either side blew up the dam, both Ukrainians and Russians would have potential motives. By causing flooding, Moscow could make it more difficult for the enemy to advance as part of the counteroffensive. Further downstream, the Ukrainians have repeatedly attempted to establish bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River in recent months.
However, Russian propagandists such as Igor Girkin also immediately turned this argument around, saying that Kiev had blown up the dam in order to submerge Russian defensive positions and minefields. In addition, they argued that this would cut off the annexed Crimean peninsula from its water supply. Therefore, control over the pumping stations at the Kakhovka Dam for the supply of the rain-deprived annexed peninsula was one of Russia's main war aims.

There are already warnings from the occupation authorities in Crimea about problems with drinking water, and on social networks there is talk of tankers running in the town of Kerch. However, the large Ukrainian city of Krivi Rih, 150 kilometers from Kherson, also reports difficulties and hoarding of drinking water. In any case, the Ukrainians would be cutting their own flesh: The reservoirs on the Dnipro, especially that of Kakhovka, provide water for populations and agriculture throughout southern Ukraine.

Even if the scenario of a deliberate Russian or Ukrainian attack presupposed a considerable degree of cynicism, it would not be without precedent: Soviet power deliberately conceived dams and lakes on the Dnipro as objects of military defense. Blowing up dams slowed the Wehrmacht's advance on Kiev during World War II. In March 2022, Ukrainians flooded areas around the capital, preventing its conquest.

Whether an accident or an attack, the consequences are still hard to predict and are likely to be catastrophic. Tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, are affected. Upstream, an artificial lake with an area of almost 2200 square kilometers is now emptying within a very short time. This is also a disaster for flora and fauna. In addition, huge amounts of fresh water are now pouring into the Black Sea.

The Zaporizhia nuclear power plant also draws cooling water from the Kakhovka dam. At least the International Atomic Energy Agency declared on Tuesday morning that there was no immediate risk. The six reactors have been shut down for months because of the fighting and would only be at risk in the event of a complete loss of water.
---------------

Anyhow: no mechanized assault in the affected regions, no offensive on Cherson. Sweet water reservoirs on Crimea are described by Russian authorities to be full 80%, whcih probbaly means it is less. Maybe its a good idea to take out the Kerch bridge next instead of leaving it open so that Russians can flee.



If the dam was mishandled by the Russians, then this shows that acicdents are possible and so it can happen at Saporischschja as well.
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Old 06-06-23, 05:33 AM   #11210
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Even though I don't consider myself a gambling man I'd put my money on the Russians being primarily responsible.
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Old 06-06-23, 05:35 AM   #11211
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Most loikely it were a Russian attack, yes, but that is not proven, "responsible" they are in any case, they started the war and they hold the dam and powerplant occupied. If they would have left Ukraine alone, nothing of all this would have happened.


An offensive over the river Dnipro below the dam seems to be impossible now.



The NZZ article says that the Sovjets planned their dams in a way that they could use them in war in right the way the Russian probably now have done.
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Old 06-06-23, 06:01 AM   #11212
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
Most loikely it were a Russian attack, yes, but that is not proven, "responsible" they are in any case, they started the war and they hold the dam and powerplant occupied. If they would have left Ukraine alone, nothing of all this would have happened.


An offensive over the river Dnipro below the dam seems to be impossible now.



The NZZ article says that the Sovjets planned their dams in a way that they could use them in war in right the way the Russian probably now have done.
Precisely!
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Old 06-06-23, 11:06 AM   #11213
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https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...531a08b4bb3445


As I said before, it is not certain that Russian attacks destroyed the dam.
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Old 06-06-23, 11:22 AM   #11214
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I do not know who did it-What I do know is that both side has benefits and negative from getting the dam destroyed.

Depending on where people stands they accuse one of them.

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Old 06-06-23, 11:34 AM   #11215
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Ukrainian hydropower company Ukrhydroenergo says the dam was destroyed by an explosion in the engine room. That is located on the eastern side of the dam, and images confirm that part collapsed. Satellite images from the company Maxar yesterday also show how a section of the road over the dam has been removed, whereas it was still there a week ago.



Ukraine has for several weeks accused the Russian occupation forces of keeping the level of the reservoir artificially high by keeping the dam's valves closed. Independent water level data confirmed that the water level had suddenly risen very sharply in recent weeks to record levels not seen since measurements began in 1992. In the weeks before, just the opposite happened and the Russians seemed to have kept the water level artificially low, to more than two meters below average. If pressure caused the dam to burst, that may have been the Russians' intention. The Ukrainian army may now face a huge problem just as it is ramping up its counteroffensive. A large-scale attack in this region was very difficult anyway due to the wide river and lack of bridges. Now that the dam has burst, and the whole region is underwater, that option becomes completely impossible.
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Old 06-06-23, 12:19 PM   #11216
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Old 06-06-23, 12:24 PM   #11217
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Old 06-06-23, 01:19 PM   #11218
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More on this Nord Stream thing

Quote:
Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022. They provide some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...kraine-russia/

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Old 06-06-23, 01:30 PM   #11219
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US has intelligence confirming Russia’s guilt in Kakhovka HPP bombing - NBC

At the same time, NBC clarifies that the administration of US President Joe Biden is already working to declassify the intelligence and make it public today, June 6.
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Old 06-06-23, 02:00 PM   #11220
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^ seems right

[...]
3. At 6:51 in Nova Kakhovka, they see that the dam is a complete ass, and the mom's stratagems start to realize that they are in trouble. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka abruptly changes his rhetoric and says there was no explosion, it was a shelling by the Ukrainian army. Link http://archive.ph/LFFKF

[...]
5. Other telegram channels that cooperate with the military are happily hopping on one leg, cheering, because of the undermining of the Kakhovka dam, the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the islands are flooded, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to evacuate and escape, and then they publish joyful reports of how they are hitting the positions of our guys on the islands. 08:25 Link http://archive.ph/c0iHL

6. Here, the Russians are slowly realizing that they have created a large-scale man-made environmental disaster, almost as large as Chernobyl. And they are starting to reverse. Russian influence on the information space is changing its tone dramatically. They instantly change their tune and start accusing the Ukrainian side of provocations. [...]


https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/s...15265971118082

Also:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...74996311605250

The usual russian maskirovka.
People like them are always "sorry". And always too late.
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