Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

A comment to an article from Guardian on FB made me curious

Will Russia use the fire on this refinery as a false flag and accuse NATO for being behind. ?

Personally I doubt it. But then as mention in my former comment where I had translated an article from a Danish newspaper.

"When the longtime intelligence chief Naryshkin shook and trembled with fear as he was questioned in front of Putin, it was surely because he knew that the real world would not match Putin's fictional universe. He probably had a sneaking suspicion of at least some of the problems that would await. "

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

No, I'm saying that NATO needs to be careful so we don't march into WW3 by mistake.

I think that question is decided by Putin, and him alone. No matter whether we provoke him or not. He makes his own reality in his head.

NATO is supplying effective conventional arms as it is. Something is shooting down those fighter planes and helicopters. Something is destroying those tanks.

Yes, but the battlefield in th Donbass is different than that around Kiev. Less forest, for exmaple. The battle dynamics are different. At Kyiv, Ukrainian troops laid in ambush and let Russian columns (due to the terrain and infrastructure necessarily in vulnerable columns) pass them, then shot them into their flanks from hidden ambush sites. That is different now, the Russian stay at dfistances that force the Ukrianians to close in on them to get them enbgaged. Before, the Russaiansd came to them, now they need to get to the Russian more, and then Russian are spread now. The topogrpahy is better for Russian., but the wetaher and ground conditions may be changing. I do not know how the groudn currently is for heavy tracks.

Putin may win some battles, but he has, effectively, already lost the war. It isn't up to NATO to provide an exit strategy to Putin. NATO did not invade Ukraine. At best, what are we supposed to do? Everyone cross their fingers behind their backs as we smile at Russia?

And this means exactly what now?

Here's an example where NATO needs to be careful- remember that story about the Polish Mig 29s? Poland is transitioning to the F-16. Those Migs were not set up to the same standard as their Ukrainian cousins, by most reports they were already mothballed while Poland was looking for buyers (as a source of spare parts). Those Migs need a lot of work just to get airborne, never mind being useful to Ukrainian pilots.
So, let's take it to the next level. Since Poland is switching to the F-16, why not send those planes to Ukraine? Who is going to fly them? Who is going to maintain them? You're talking running a two month crash course just to cover the basics, longer if the air raid sirens are always going off. Knowing how to fly a fighter is not the same as knowing how to fight with it effectively. That takes experience and time. Which Ukraine doesn't have right now.

Yes, thats why I too think its no option to send Leopard-2s and Falcons or Eurofighters, but one should send T-72 and Fulcrums and Howitzers. I am not sure on the Marders, however, they are ot as complex in needecd crew itneraction and gun handling as Leopards. Still, soem training is needed, no doubtk,l they are no BMPs. The Fulcrums may be old and need long maintenance, but at least they are flying. Eurofighters not beign there will certainly log not a single flight hour. 50% of something is more than 100% of nothing.

NATO needs to concentrate on what is effective for Ukraine right now. That may seem harsh at times, and it often is, but it would be worse if this war spreads to the rest of the northern hemisphere.

Yes. No. I struggle to get the connection, relation or implication you seem to make there.

[mapuc]

Sweden and Finland have agreed to apply for a possible NATO membership at the same time, which could happen as early as mid-May, according to information from the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.

Swedish government sources confirm the information to Expressen.

It is the Swedish government that should have wanted a NATO application to be sent simultaneously from the two countries, something they now agree on, according to the Finnish newspaper.

They must also have agreed to announce a possible application in week 20, ie between 16 and 22 May, the same week as the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, is going on a state visit to Sweden.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Sweden and Finland have agreed to apply for a possible NATO membership at the same time, which could happen as early as mid-May, according to information from the Finnish newspaper Iltalehti.

Swedish government sources confirm the information to Expressen.

It is the Swedish government that should have wanted a NATO application to be sent simultaneously from the two countries, something they now agree on, according to the Finnish newspaper.

They must also have agreed to announce a possible application in week 20, ie between 16 and 22 May, the same week as the Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, is going on a state visit to Sweden.

Markus

To shield them, Stoltenberg said NATO member countries might be prepared to provide a security guarantee to cover the two neutral nations from when they announce a possible membership bid until their applications are endorsed.

Swedish media report that Stockholm has received "concrete promises" from the United States and Britain on security guarantees for the period of the decision on the country's entry into NATO.

[Skybird]

Yep, that shielding is extremely important nowadays, with Putin having proven to be on a rabid run. Already ten days ago or so it was reported that Russia had started extensive and unusual movement of forces at and towards the Finnish border. Hopefully only an attemept to intimidate the Fins. That was at a time when the news speculated extensively on whether or not Finland would apply for membership indeed.

Its a risky but I think necessary decision by Finland (and Sweden). Putin has proven he needs no provocation to behave as if it had been provoked.

For NATO, these two candidates, different to some other recent new members, are net contributors of substantial fighting power and modern technology, and are highly welcomed. Both countries can field substantial and robust military assets in the air and on and under the sea, and in case of Finland really impressive ground forces as well, with huge reserves possible to be called up that can be FULLY EQUIPPED, not just served with third class material with rust and dust on it. Very welcomed new two members these are! Putin cannot like one bit of what he has acchieved there. Not one bit. Even better, both countries' forces have already extensively trained with and according to NATO standards. Their integration should be easy running, smooth as silk.

Very welcomed! Very good news for NATO! Absolutely a net gain for NATO, both of them!

(As an SPB player I just love those CV-line of IFVs the Swedish and Fins have, CV-35 and CV-40) In the sim, these rock. )

[mapuc]

Add paranoia to his (forgot what they call it)

"
On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a press conference in which he accused the West of trying to kill Russian journalists.

- This morning, the Federal Security Service stopped the activities of a terrorist group that was planning to attack and kill a famous Russian TV journalist, Putin said at the press conference.

This is reported by Reuters, which has not been able to verify the Russian accusations.

It was reportedly Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyev whom the group wanted to kill. Last week he went on Russian television and announced that Nato would be destroyed.

He is known to be an indirect spokesman for the Russian government and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Terrorist group detained
According to the Russian news agency Interfax, members of a nationalist group are behind the plans to kill the Russian TV journalist.

The group was reportedly acting on the orders of Ukrainian spies who, in collaboration with the West, are trying to destroy Russia from within.

Putin stated at the press conference that such attempts will fail.

Ukraine rejects
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) has rejected Putin's accusations on Telegram.

They say they are not behind plans to kill Russian TV journalist Vladimir Solovyev.
"

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yep, that shielding is extremely important nowadays, with Putin having proven to be on a rabid run. Already ten days ago or so it was reported that Russia had started extensive and unusual movement of forces at and towards the Finnish border. Hopefully only an attemept to intimidate the Fins. That was at a time when the news speculated extensively on whether or not Finland would apply for membership indeed.

Its a risky but I think necessary decision by Finland (and Sweden). Putin has proven he needs no provocation to behave as if it had been provoked.

For NATO, these two candidates, different to some other recent new members, are net contributors of substantial fighting power and modern technology, and are highly welcomed. Both countries can field substantial and robust military assets in the air and on and under the sea, and in case of Finland really impressive ground forces as well, with huge reserves possible to be called up that can be FULLY EQUIPPED, not just served with third class material with rust and dust on it. Very welcomed new two members these are! Putin cannot like one bit of what he has acchieved there. Not one bit. Even better, both countries' forces have already extensively trained with and according to NATO standards. Their integration should be easy running, smooth as silk.

Very welcomed! Very good news for NATO! Absolutely a net gain for NATO, both of them!

(As an SPB player I just love those CV-line of IFVs the Swedish and Fins have, CV-35 and CV-40) In the sim, these rock. )

The Swedish Prime Minister had to give promises to get a majority in the Swedish Parliament.
Such as
No foreign troops stationed on Swedish ground in peacetime.
No nukes on Swedish ground in Peacetime.- This has to be discussed the day it happens-Russia attack Sweden after they have joined NATO.

Markus

[Dargo]

The Netherlands was one of the first European countries to pledge significant military aid to Ukraine before Russia launched its invasion of the country on the 24th of February. This aid consisted of two Thales Squire ground surveillance radars, five AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder weapon-locating radars, two SeaFox autonomous underwater vehicles for mine detection, 100 (anti-materiel) sniper rifles along with 30,000 rounds of ammunition, and 3000 helmets and 2000 flack jackets. [1] After the invasion had commenced, an additional aid package that included 50 Stinger MANPADS launchers with 200 missiles and 50 Panzerfaust 3 RPGs along with 400 rockets was quickly announced. [2] Not much later, the Dutch Minister of Defence announced it would no longer provide details on arms deliveries to Ukraine to safeguard operational security. [3]

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...veries-to.html

[Skybird]

In the conflict region of Transnistria bordering Ukraine, the Ministry of State Security has been shelled, according to local authorities. According to the report, the building in the Transdniestrian capital Tiraspol was damaged by explosions. Photos, whose authenticity could not be verified, showed smashed windows and a shattered entrance. Authorities said Monday that the building had been shelled with anti-tank ammunition. No one was harmed because of a day off from work, they said. Russia has deployed soldiers in the region that broke away from Moldova.

Moldovan authorities said in the capital Chisinau that it was not clear who had fired. However, it was clearly a provocation aimed at destabilizing the situation in the conflict region. Neighboring Ukraine, which faces a Russian war of aggression, blamed Moscow for the shelling.

Ukrainian military intelligence in Kiev accused Russia of trying to stir up panic with this provocation. According to the statement, troops stationed in Transnistria could try to attack Ukraine from there in the direction of the Black Sea city of Odessa. In a statement published in Kiev, the intelligence service recalled a statement made last Friday by a Russian commander who had openly spoken of Moscow's desire to bring all of southern Ukraine under its control, all the way to Transnistria.


There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...] agree with all here [...]

There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany.

And don't forget the Nazis that have to be denazified. From Kyiv to Berlin, to Lisbon.

Fun fact:
In Ukraine 2,1 percent voted for the far right nazis in the last election.
In France it was 41 percent.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In the conflict region of Transnistria bordering Ukraine, the Ministry of State Security has been shelled, according to local authorities. According to the report, the building in the Transdniestrian capital Tiraspol was damaged by explosions. Photos, whose authenticity could not be verified, showed smashed windows and a shattered entrance. Authorities said Monday that the building had been shelled with anti-tank ammunition. No one was harmed because of a day off from work, they said. Russia has deployed soldiers in the region that broke away from Moldova.

Moldovan authorities said in the capital Chisinau that it was not clear who had fired. However, it was clearly a provocation aimed at destabilizing the situation in the conflict region. Neighboring Ukraine, which faces a Russian war of aggression, blamed Moscow for the shelling.

Ukrainian military intelligence in Kiev accused Russia of trying to stir up panic with this provocation. According to the statement, troops stationed in Transnistria could try to attack Ukraine from there in the direction of the Black Sea city of Odessa. In a statement published in Kiev, the intelligence service recalled a statement made last Friday by a Russian commander who had openly spoken of Moscow's desire to bring all of southern Ukraine under its control, all the way to Transnistria.


There is a Russian minority everywhere, which Russia has to defend by invasion and war of aggression. Even in East Germany.

Let's hope Putin is told to open a new Transnistria front, let him make that mistake imagine the lengthy supply lines

[mapuc]

Speaking to Russian news agencies, he criticised Kyiv's approach to the talks, adding: "Good will has its limits. But if it isn't reciprocal, that doesn't help the negotiation process.

https://www.barrons.com/news/russia-...ii-01650917407

Markus

[Catfish]

Cardboard and egg cartons as armour. While the real thing was sold elsewhere to make Putin and his oligarchs rich..
And Russia calls Ukraine corrupt



Almost feel sorry for russian soldiers.

[Skybird]

DW Germany:

Germany will supply Ukraine with Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. Defense Minister
Christine Lambrecht said at the start of a meeting of heads of departments of allied countries at the U.S. Ramstein base in Rhineland-Palatinate that the German government had decided this on Monday. The arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) is to be given the green light to sell the technically refurbished anti-aircraft tanks from former Bundeswehr stocks. The Federal Security Council, chaired by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, formally decides on the approval of export applications from the arms industry.

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann has a mid-double-digit number of these tanks from the disbanded German Army Air Defense. The Gepard can engage aerial targets such as aircraft, helicopters, drones or missiles at a range of up to six kilometers with its two 35-millimeter machine guns. It can also be used in combat against ground targets.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

What they dont say is a word on the timetable...


The Gepard is a capable and nasty platform. But also a high profile missile-attractor, like every air defence system like this.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[B]


What they dont say is a word on the timetable...

Precisely