Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Oh-oh, dark clouds gathering at the horizon. Der Spiegel writes:


In the investigation into the explosives attacks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, there are growing indications that the perpetrators were Ukrainian. According to SPIEGEL information, the metadata of an e-mail sent when the sailing yacht "Andromeda", which was presumably used to transport the explosives, was rented, should lead to Ukraine.
The explosions on both pipelines had occurred in late September. Two strings of Nord Stream 1 were disrupted, one of Nord Stream 2. In the immediate aftermath of the explosions, many publicly accused Russia of being responsible for the attacks.

To this day, numerous speculations about possible perpetrators persist, ranging all the way to an accusation of American intelligence services in cooperation with Norwegian authorities. There has also been repeated talk of a so-called "false flag" operation by Russia. Among people familiar with the matter, this is considered extremely unlikely. Behind the scenes, it was even said early on that Moscow had no real motive for the act.

The investigators of Attorney General Peter Frank, on the other hand, are now certain that the sailing yacht "Andromeda" was used for the attack. She sailed from Rostock-Warnemünde in early September 2022 and returned after the attacks. Apparently, forged identification documents were used for her charter.
Remains of an underwater explosive were found distributed over a large area in the cabin of the "Andromeda". The explosive was said to be octogen, a widely used explosive in both the West and the former Eastern Bloc. Investigators have described the explosive power of the explosive charges used as equivalent to 500 kilograms of TNT.

Octogen is much lighter than TNT, would be transportable by a relatively small boat, and could have been brought to the attack site on the bottom of the Baltic Sea by experienced combat divers. This eliminates the often advanced theory that the bombers could have brought the explosive to the attack site only by a larger ship and possibly a mini-submarine because of its weight.

The traces found by the Federal Criminal Police Office coincide with estimates by several intelligence services, according to which the perpetrators are to be located in Ukraine. The intelligence services are now wondering whether the attack could have been carried out by an uncontrolled commando or by Ukrainian intelligence services - and to what extent parts of the Ukrainian government apparatus may have been in the picture.

However, it is still unclear on what basis exactly these assessments were made. Even before the attacks, the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) had received a warning from the U.S. intelligence service CIA: There were indications of a planned attack on the pipelines by Ukrainian perpetrators.

The BND, however, considered the report to be not very credible. Since the attacks, however, Germany has received numerous indications from foreign intelligence services that the perpetrators of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine were more likely to be on the side of the Ukrainians. The New York Times was the first to report such an assessment by U.S. authorities in March.
Further evidence pointing in the direction of Ukraine is said to be the Ukrainian owners of a Polish company that was apparently involved in renting the ship. In addition, there is a photo on allegedly forged documents that leads to a Ukrainian social media profile.
However, people familiar with the facts of the case recently expressed internal doubts as to whether this circumstantial evidence should be regarded as a hot lead. The Federal Public Prosecutor's Office would not comment, citing ongoing investigations.

That would be a hammer thing, if it were the Ukraine, maybe also Poland.


Back then I said that these two players were possible but unlikely to be the attackers. I also said - with Russia on my mind - that such a strike on the infrastructure to me equlas an act of war. Of course it still is an act of war if Ukriane and/or Poland are behind it. Which still is an "if", lets not forget that.

If one day the theory that it was the Ukraine gets proven, then imho there can be only one consequence Germany can and must draw: the immediate and total suspension of any further aid deliveries of any kind, and consequently blocking all further attempts for a closer associatoion of the Ukriane with EU and NATO. Whioch woudl be a ver yhigh rpice for Ukraine to pay - and that was my argument bakc then why I think they would never dare to commit this little advnetours deed.

Its worth to recall that there are news reports every once in a while indicating that neither in Washington nor in Berlin the intel agencies really trust Selensky.

Of course ther eis the need to exmaine this all with utmost sweriosuness, to rule out that it all is nevertheless a fals flag operaiton by Russia. Its motivation would be clear: to trigger the German reaction as described above.

The possibility that Washington is behind all this, must be given higher probability, too, in the light of these findings.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Ukraine is again causing trouble for Germany's Scholzomats with a request to supply Taurus cruise missiles, an equivalent of the British Storm Shadow, with a range of over 500km and a warhead weighing just under 500kg. Plane-launched Taurus is a partnership development of Germany and Sweden.


Defense Minister Pistorius reacted evasively and reservedly. For its part, the CDU opposition proposed offering Taurus a few days ago.

[ET2SN]

Sky, try to look at this in terms of technical means and MOTIVE.

The US, Russia, UK, and some of the Nordic countries have the technical means to carry out the attack. Poland might. Ukraine probably does not.

Now, let's look at motive.

Why would any member of NATO punish another member by shutting down an energy source? This happened at a time when it was critical for NATO to stand strong and united.

Let's assume it was one of the Nordic countries who wanted to apply for membership. That's one heck of a resume, imagine what would have happened if something went wrong or someone got caught.

So, let's look at Russia.
Why on earth would Russia want to destroy its own pipeline which fed Germany? Maybe to send a message? Recall that the pipeline had already been shut down due to sanctions.

When in doubt, trust the basic logic and don't feed the trolls.

[Otto Harkaman]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Sky, try to look at this in terms of technical means and MOTIVE.

The US, Russia, UK, and some of the Nordic countries have the technical means to carry out the attack. Poland might. Ukraine probably does not.

Now, let's look at motive.

Why would any member of NATO punish another member by shutting down an energy source? This happened at a time when it was critical for NATO to stand strong and united.

Let's assume it was one of the Nordic countries who wanted to apply for membership. That's one heck of a resume, imagine what would have happened if something went wrong or someone got caught.

So, let's look at Russia.
Why on earth would Russia want to destroy its own pipeline which fed Germany? Maybe to send a message? Recall that the pipeline had already been shut down due to sanctions.

When in doubt, trust the basic logic and don't feed the trolls.

You make it way too complicated.


If it was Washington, then they will not have send a US commando, but will have used local "contractors", so to speak. Ukrainians, maybe Putin-hostile Russian, Poles, Europeans.



If it was Ukraine, they too probaly will have cooperated with local "options".


Biden said before the war that in case of an invasion everbyody shpuld better b epeive the US would shut down the pipeline, and would find the means to do it.



If it were Ukraine with or without Poland, the motive for both is clear. To influence Germany in favour of the war, and to end a possible financial income source for Russia.



If it was Russia, it did so becasue Putin wanted to show Europoe how much he pisses on it and that Europoe should not beleiove he depend on tzhat pipeline, but he wanted to dmeosnbtrate early that a continuation of opposition to Russia could lead to Russia itself could decide to not want to deliver anything to Europoe anymore. A warning. A shut down pipeline could be opened again, could leave hopes alive. A destroyed pipeline is a much tougher message.



Also not forget that Poland wanted the death of Nordstream 2 for another reason, too, that is Poland wanted itself to become the distribution hub for LNG from the US that should have get landed in Denmark and from there being distributed by pipeline to Poland which then would have had the financial benefit and also the control - last but not least as an option to apply pressure against Brussels.



The baltic states also were against the pipeline, seeing it as a porked German security perception regarding Russia, and they were right.



The research results found over the past months more and more seem to point at the direction I considered to be the most unlikely one. I rule no scenario out anymore.


If it were the Ukraine or the US/UK or them two together, and maybe with Poland, it will hit Berlin like a MOAB. Germany is in a too weak psoition, most oiekly, to do anythign about it, and so will try to paly it down, or to hide it, but in principle this act then would be a reason to break up the alliance. You do not bomb energy infrastructure of an ally in peacetimes, hidden, and out of the blue. Totally unacceptable, no matter how wriogn the German way was. Diplkamtic isolation, sanctions, ecnomci punishment - all possible: But an act of war? No, unacceptable. What would be next? A befriended nation winning an economic competition of any sort, and to stop that you sabotage or bomb (by a contracto "terror gang", not by an air strike) that "befriended" nation's factory...? Nobody can want that.


P.S. This all could still be a cleverly masked false flag operation by Russia. This should not be forgotten.

[August]

I think the fact that one of the four pipelines was left untouched, not damaged or even prepped to explode, but deliberately ignored, points the deed to Russia.

If it were Ukraine or the Poles or the US, then all four pipes would have been destroyed and if one of the charges had failed it would have left behind evidence or damage but none exists. We would not have left the option open for Russia to turn the spigot back on someday. Only Russia has the motive to keep one of the pipes intact.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[UglyMowgli]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Even I can't understand what NATO/USA have to do in Ukraine-It's not exactly a country worth starting WWIII for.

On the other hand I would understand if NATO deployed troops near the border towards Ukraine in Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. In case Russia are planning on invading Ukraine.

Markus

There is 8 battlegroups already deployed in the Eastern borders since the invasion:


Host nation: Bulgaria
Framework nation: Italy
Contributing nations: Albania, Greece, North Macedonia, Türkiye and the United States
Host nation: Estonia
Framework nation: United Kingdom
Contributing nations: Denmark, France and Iceland
Host nation: Hungary
Framework nation: Hungary
Contributing nations: Croatia, Italy, Montenegro, Türkiye and the United States
Host nation: Latvia
Framework nation: Canada
Contributing nations: Albania, Czechia, Italy, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
Host nation: Lithuania
Framework nation: Germany
Contributing nations: Belgium, Czechia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway
Host nation: Poland
Framework nation: United States
Contributing nations: Croatia, Romania and the United Kingdom
Host nation: Romania
Framework nation: France
Contributing nations: the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Poland, Portugal and the United States
Host nation: Slovakia
Framework nation: Czechia
Contributing nations: Germany, the Netherlands and Slovenia

[mapuc]

^Thank you

Yes there are a few battalion near the Ukrainian borders.

Hopefully they will be there and don't have to do a thing. Other than being prepared if the Ruskies should do something really not so clever thing

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^Thank you

Yes there are a few battalion near the Ukrainian borders.

Hopefully they will be there and don't have to do a thing. Other than being prepared if the Ruskies should do something really not so clever thing

Markus

Russian forces are hardly copping in Ukraine its border is wide open, do not see them risking a war with NATO they do not have material or personnel for that.