GER politics thread

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung fires this cruise missile of a comment on Berlin, and it impacts right on target:
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Berlin is a symptom of everything that is wrong with Germany

Neglect, bad education policy and now invalid elections: In the German capital, the entire vote for the House of Representatives must be repeated. Three lessons can be learned from this.

In the city-state of Berlin, the recent state elections, which here are called elections for the House of Representatives, must be repeated by order of the state constitutional court. Completely. Within 90 days. The conduct of the election on September 26, 2021 was a spectacular disaster with traffic chaos, missing ballots and completely different opening hours of polling stations.

Berlin's governing mayor Franziska Giffey (SPD) had the chutzpah to announce on Twitter on Wednesday that there would be no more "a flawed election like last time" with her. Yet it was her Red-Green-Red Senate that was responsible for the election debacle - as well as many other abysses of Berlin's urban politics.

It's not that there haven't been mistakes in determining election results in Germany before, though quite rarely, in 2009 in Schleswig-Holstein, for example, or in 2018 in Hesse. But never before has there been such a feeling, in the face of the hubris and sausage-making of an election administration, that it might be better in the future to call in OSCE election observers.

The dysfunctionality of the German capital is not just a Berlinalie, it is a portent for the entire country. For everything that, due to negligence, decision-making fear and party-political internal orientation, no longer functions as it actually corresponds to the German self-image.

This starts with Berlin Brandenburg Airport (BER), which was supposed to have opened in 2011 and was not completed until 2020. Today, it already looks like a redevelopment case and does not even begin to do justice to the number of passengers it can handle. And it is - as the capital's airport! - is anything but a hub for international air traffic.

This continues with a Berlin judicial policy that sets limits neither on climate extremists or squatters nor on clan crime or open drug trafficking.

Berlin sees itself as social, cosmopolitan and diverse - but an overburdened, structurally overstrained administration produces precisely not socially desirable conditions. During the refugee crisis of 2015/16, while "Refugees welcome" was posted on billboards, desperate refugees camped out for days in undignified conditions in front of Berlin's State Office for Health and Social Affairs (Lageso) until they were even given a place to stay.

Long-term integration is handled just as laxly as the initial reception of refugees: In some Berlin schools, more than 80 percent of the children do not speak German. There is no convincing plan to change that. Anti-Semitism and verbal abuse of children of German origin who eat their break bread even in Ramadan are not isolated cases.

In the nationwide performance ranking of schools, Berlin is far behind. The fact that its universities continue to enjoy the greatest popularity is due less to their academic level than to the fact that Berlin is Germany's undisputed party capital. That, after all.

The city is failing to tackle the neglect in the districts and in its actually grandiose showcase park Tiergarten. It has no recognizable concept for combating homelessness, begging, and wild dumping of bulky waste. It accepts the desolation of the city centers and even promotes it - by consistently destroying parking space. In large areas of Berlin's center, investor-driven but without comprehensible urban planning, the ghettos of tomorrow are emerging.

Neglected infrastructure, massive traffic problems, failed integration, poor education policies: these are all plagues that are also being dealt with in Duisburg-Marxloh or Hamburg-Billbrook. But in Berlin, the undesirable developments are as clearly visible as under a burning glass. The election catastrophe of 2021 now calls into question the most important, highest principle of any democracy: that elections are indeed equal, always, everywhere.

There are three lessons to be learned from this. First, Germans should be a bit more careful when lecturing other European countries like Hungary or Poland about their democratic processes. Second, those who don't think the Berlin disaster is a bad thing should stop hypocrisy about the supposedly deplorable abstention rate in Germany (recently 45 percent in state elections). Obviously, it is not the case that every vote counts after all.

Third: If the state election in Berlin is completely inadmissible according to the court ruling - how can the federal election held on the same day (and just as flawed) stand?
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[Skybird]

The situation in Berlin is so stupid that I only now realize how stupid it actually is: it is not only about the repetition of the election to the Berlin House of Representatives, which has to be repeated in its entirety, but also about a partial repetition of the Bundestag election, which was held at the same time last time. But there are legal regulations which mean that the repeated election to the Bundestag could be delayed in time, and if there are legal objections to this, it could be delayed until well into the year 2024. Several members of the Bundestag who see their mandate in jeopardy, as well as party members who see the current power structure between the parties in jeopardy, have already announced their intention to do so in order to somehow save themselves over the legislative period.

In any case, the Berliners will have to repeat not one but TWO elections, and at different times - and many months, even years, and even almost a legislative period later.

The whole monkey circus is so - well, yes how is it? So German it is, I would say.

But wanting to lecture other countries about God and the world.

[mapuc]

Your German newspapers description about Berlin is a common thing around the world-Reading it is like reading a local newspaper in Denmark or Sweden where they talk down about their capital.

I call it the Capital syndrome

When I lived in Sweden-Stockholm was terrible while Copenhagen and even Berlin was great cities to visit.
In Denmark - Copenhagen was terrible, while Oslo, Stockholm and Berlin was great cities to visit.

Markus

[Skybird]

The state, your worst enemy. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:
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Cold-called BSI president: Did Arne Schönbohm get caught in the gears of power?

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser wants to keep security loopholes open and use them, among other things, to monitor citizens. The cybersecurity agency doesn't want that.

When a senior official is removed from a top position, what you see is often not what actually happens. Arne Schönbohm was recently placed on forced leave as president of the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI). Germany's Social Democratic Interior Minister Nancy Faeser chastised him for "damaged trust."

"What you see" was three events earlier. On Oct. 7, comedian Jan Böhmermann's program on public radio scandalized the alleged "closeness to Russia" of an association Schönbohm had founded before his tenure. The contents of the broadcast were old news. The second: On October 8, all train traffic in northern Germany was cancelled due to a targeted attack on two neuralgic points of the railroad infrastructure. Public discussion now turned to the security of the country's "critical infrastructure" and "cybersecurity." On Oct. 10, the interior minister barred Schönbohm from conducting official business and banned him from speaking. Cybersecurity is the BSI's core business.

Schönbohm did not let himself be disposed of quietly, however, but demanded disciplinary proceedings against himself. After all, he is convinced that there is nothing against him. And "trust" may be a valid reason for dismissal in the case of political officials, but not in the case of a regular civil servant like him - that would contradict the basic ideas of German civil service law. Schönbohm's complaint is now before the Cologne Administrative Court. Since the ministry had not been able to present any case against him by the deadline last Tuesday, it has been granted an extension of the deadline until December 9.

In order to take the complaint until then the ground, the employer Faeser tries it now with a transfer - such a thing must put up with civil servants as a rule, if the procedure is kept and they come on a at least equivalent post. According to reports, Schönbohm is to become president of the Federal Academy for Public Administration in Brühl.

Of course, this is not an equivalent post, as everyone in the Interior Ministry knows. It has a lower salary and is not comparable in terms of staff, money and powers. The BSI has about 1700 posts and an annual budget of 240 million euros; in the new office there would be a mere 55 employees, and the modest budget is 3.5 million euros. The pay has now been adjusted in a rush. The idea: if the transfer is successful, Schönbohm's complaint would be groundless. At present, however, things are not looking bad for him.

So what could be the motivation for Faeser's action if there is nothing against Schönbohm? The coalition agreement of the governing coalition states that the BSI should become "more independent" of the Ministry of the Interior. The German Informatics Society (Gesellschaft für Informatik) has just called on the federal government once again to implement this. But the ministry is making no effort to do so, as the coalition partners complain.

Is there perhaps no interest at all in a more "independent" BSI in the Ministry of the Interior? The Greens' proposal to make it completely independent was not open to discussion by the SPD during the coalition negotiations. The BSI is currently kept on a short leash by the ministry.

The predecessor organization of the BSI, founded in 1991, was the Central Office for Ciphering as part of the Federal Intelligence Service. Its task was exclusively to protect the state. Over time, new tasks were added for the BSI, including the protection of citizens and the economy.

But these two tasks contradict each other: If, for example, citizens are protected from security gaps in the operating systems of their cell phones by informing the manufacturers about them, this weakens the ability of government agencies to monitor citizens using these very security gaps. But that's what Faeser intends to do, for example, with chat control.

The BSI, under a self-confident president who has repeatedly emphasized the independence of his agency, thus inevitably gets in the way of a political apparatus that has expanded the legal possibilities of open or covert state surveillance in recent years with a wide variety of justifications.

The obvious thesis is: Schönbohm was deposed because he is interfering with this. At the same time, the issues are pressing, especially in the area of cybersecurity, and everything here is connected to everything else. The coalition agreement had promised a lot, but nothing has been tackled so far, complain the opposition and digital associations alike. Faeser herself has no digital expertise, and she has not brought in any experts to change that. Her office doesn't seem to care much about the coalition agreement; it's carrying on as before.

If Nancy Faeser becomes head of government in Hesse in less than a year's time, as many expect, and if Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht then succeeds her, the lack of digital expertise will remain. Here, too, the government's proclaimed "turnaround" urgently needs to be implemented.

Schönbohm is a CDU man. He was brought in from outside in 2016. He once said that he had taken on the job in order not to always complain about the state, but to do things better. The IT scene met him with skepticism when he took office, but Schönbohm has greatly upgraded the agency and gained respect. As is often the case when someone from the outside comes into an established and ultimately politically controlled apparatus, he did not have an easy time with the ministerial staff.
Knowing vulnerabilities means power

One point of contention is how to deal with security vulnerabilities. It's important to know that the state also employs hackers inside it. The German intelligence services - i.e., BND, Verfassungsschutz, Militärischer Abschirmdienst - are allowed to commit crimes, within the scope of legal powers, of course; this serves to protect the country's internal and external security. They are allowed to keep discovered security gaps secret and exploit them.

Faeser wants to keep it that way. Vulnerabilities are to be "managed," but not fixed in conjunction with manufacturers. Security vulnerabilities give power to those who know about them. Faeser and her security agencies have an overall tendency to distrust their own people, you might say. She also wants the state Trojan, chat controls, so-called hackbacks and data retention. Schönbohm, on the other hand, wanted to report security gaps to manufacturers - so that they can be closed. This puts him in line with the IT scene.

There one sees the work of the Minister of the Interior critically. "Faeser continues to disappoint and acts populistically instead of taking concrete measures to increase IT security," says, for example, Manuel Atug, founder and spokesman for AG Kritis, a group of experts concerned with the protection of critical infrastructures. Faeser, he says, is still calling for more powers for security agencies to put citizens at risk with broken encryption: "However, all these requests weaken overall security for all of us."
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Great. For keeping chat control to monitor unwanted opinions one actrively keeps open digital IT infrastructure prone and vulnerable to hostile as well as allies' digital spoying and sabotage operations.
But some people are wondering why I laugh about state standards for data security and do not trust governmental services.
Both the political left and right are enemies of freedom and liberty. Ther eis absolutely no differenc ebetween the two. Libertarians are their shared enemy number one - because they cannot corrupt him.

[Skybird]

The anarcho-senate in Berlin asks the OSCE to send official observers to the upcoming repetition of elections. A first in German history, AFAIK.

[Jimbuna]

Russia Banned From Munich Security Conference, Won't Be Given 'Platform'

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is taking place in February, but Russia will not be a part of it.

Christoph Heusgen, new chairman of the conference and former German ambassador to the United Nations, tweeted Monday that Russian officials aren't invited to the 59th MSC from February 17-19 in Munich, Germany, that includes foreign and security policy debates from high-level global diplomats.

It is an event normally attended by heads of state and government, ministers and diverse voices from international organizations, the private sector and the media.

"Russian officials are not invited to #MSC2023," Heusgen tweeted. "We will not give them a platform for their propaganda. We want to discuss Russia's future with Russian opposition leaders and exiled people - THEIR voices need to be heard and amplified."

The MSC website says the 2023 event will provide "an opportunity to take stock of cohesion within the Alliance and political commitment to the rules-based international order."

"The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, which began just a few days after the Munich Security Conference in 2022, marks a 'turning point,'" the MSC says on its website. "The war of aggression has not only caused enormous suffering in Ukraine, but has also exacerbated crises in other parts of the world."

Questions that will further come to light at the next conference will include how the world looks one year after Russia's invasion, and whether it is a harbinger of more violence supported by impunity.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended this year's MSC just days before the Russian invasion occurred, previously calling it an opportunity to meet with NATO allies and partners to discuss "coordinated, ongoing efforts to urge Russia to deescalate and choose diplomacy, as well as our readiness to impose severe costs should Russia further invade Ukraine."

President Joe Biden attended his first MSC in 2021 as a way to better the relationship with European partners.

Events involving Russians, as well as artists intending to perform in Russia, have dramatically altered since the invasion began February 24.

Musicians Green Day and comedian Louis C.K. canceled events in Russia, while the Met Opera and Cannes Film Festival banned artists allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Formula One terminated a contract with the Russian Grand Prix, and Spotify suspended both free and paid streaming subscriptions.

Reuters reported last month that Russian and Belarusian athletes will continue to be barred from skiing competitions—a ban initially designed for only the 2021-2022 season but has been extended.

Newsweek has reached out to the Kremlin for comment.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...2e920c198633a9

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:
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They are wooing frustrated conservatives: What does the new party "Bündnis Deutschland" want?

Disappointed former members of the CDU, FDP, Free Voters and AfD have come together to form a new party. The founders see a gap in the political spectrum.

Steffen Große has had an odyssey through the party landscape. In 2006, he left the CDU out of anger over the VAT increase and the eco-tax, because he "felt made fun of" as a simple member. Later, he worked on the federal board of the "Free Voters," and was chairman of a micro party called "Citizens Alliance Germany."

This Tuesday, the 55-year-old Saxon is sitting with four comrades-in-arms in the conference room of a Berlin hotel and presenting his new party: "Bündnis Deutschland". On Sunday, it was founded in Fulda, initially with 50 members. Große is the new party chairman. With the slogan "Freedom, Prosperity, Security," the project wants to fish in the conservative camp. Disappointed CDU members are among them, according to the party, as are former members of the SPD, Free Voters, FDP, AfD and LKR, the failed party of AfD founder Bernd Lucke.

A number of parties have been founded to the right of the CDU in recent years - Lucke's project, for example, or "The Blue Party" of ex-AfD leader Frauke Petry. They always sank into insignificance. And so, in the case of "Bündnis Deutschland," the question arises as to whether the project is relevant at all.

The party founders are at pains to emphasize that they are in a much better position than other start-ups. Unlike Luckes' or Petry's project, "Bündnis Deutschland" is not a "one-man show. Nor is it a split-off, but a rallying movement in the conservative camp. And it is also not a "structural quick fix. One has an office and is financed for the next two years, due to numerous donation promises of middle-class people. There is a four-digit number of people interested in joining the party.

To justify its relevance, the party commissioned an Insa survey. There, respondents were asked whether they could imagine voting for a party like "Bündnis Deutschland," which campaigned against the use of "gender language" in state institutions and public broadcasting, for tax cuts and for an affordable energy supply. Accordingly, 45 percent answered with "(rather) yes."

However, the party finds it difficult to explain what its unique selling point is in terms of content. Again and again, the founders emphasize that they want to make "reason-driven rather than ideology-driven" policies and that they are committed to an economic upswing in Germany. They also see "Alliance Germany" as "ideology-driven politics" in the CDU. Law student Jonathan Siebert, for example, resigned from the CDU after it passed a women's quota at its last party conference.

Party leader Große believes there is a "representation gap in the bourgeois sector" because the AfD drops out as a coalition partner and the citizen, no matter what he chooses, always gets a policy that is red-green. Bündnis Deutschland" also sees a gap for itself because many citizens do not trust the established parties to solve the country's problems. In order to give voters back their trust in politics, they have developed a "contract" with the voters. This contract defines what "Bündnis Deutschland" will stand for in the parliaments.

Differentiating itself from the AfD is a sensitive issue for "Bündnis Deutschland. Former members of the party, some of which are far-right, are also members of "Bündnis Deutschland. For example, Markus Scheer, who pulled the strings for the AfD behind the scenes in NRW for a long time and whom Große describes as an "organizational talent." The head of "Bündnis Deutschland" explicitly does not want to evaluate the AfD.

However, "Bündnis Deutschland" wants to prevent it from becoming a gathering place for extremists. Members of the officially disbanded far-right "wing" in the AfD, led by Björn Höcke, should not be able to become members. Every new member must go through an admissions interview. And because party expulsion procedures are difficult in Germany, every new member is first accepted for a two-year trial period.

And co-founder Sieber emphasizes that they also want to distinguish themselves from the AfD by their tone. When AfD leader Alice Weidel rails against "headscarf girls," "knife men" and "other good-for-nothings" in the Bundestag, that is a "populist and denigrating tone," says co-founder Sieber. There would be no denigration or disparagement of anyone.
Whether there are any takers for the politics offered by "Bündnis Deutschland" will soon become clear. The party wants to take part in the election for Bremen's parliament in May 2023.

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[Skybird]

Die Welt, short and sweet:
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There is something frighteningly emblematic about the key moment of the World Cup so far: the German national team comes along with grand gestures, but fails when it comes to performance. The event is reminiscent of Germany's Ukraine policy, the energy transformation and the special path it has taken with nuclear power.

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Some used a nickname for the team in past years. They called it "die Merkel-Bubis".

[Skybird]

Die Welt:
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Habeck's planned economy does not drive away the energy crisis, but prosperity

In times of crisis, Germany as a business location needs reliable guard rails. But Economics Minister Habeck is using the energy crisis to secure an ever greater role for the state. No predecessor in office has ever bent the rules of the market economy in such a way.

Astonishing news is coming out of the Federal Ministry of Economics these days. There, the costs of floating terminals for liquid gas have more than doubled. The rescue of the reeling gas giant Uniper is now expected to cost taxpayers at least 50 billion.

And the "double winter aid," i.e. bringing forward the electricity and gas price brake by two months to January 1 of next year, is driving the debt sum used to finance this subsidization of energy costs to dizzying heights. Because the state takes over finally already the December Abschlagszahlung completely. The double relief goes against the advice of the expert commission and threatens to dampen the urgently needed pressure to save on consumption.

Economics Minister Robert Habeck is a driven man in the energy crisis. The acute shortage of gas caused by the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has made spirited state intervention unavoidable. But the Green politician is shimmying from one ad hoc measure to the next.

The economy has long since lost track of the situation thanks to the ever new interventions. And so, while companies gratefully accept all subsidies, they remain reluctant in their uncertainty to invest in the future with all their might themselves.

Because it is completely unclear where this economic policy is leading the country. There are only ambitious goals: for climate neutrality, the expansion of renewable energies, electrification or the nuclear phase-out. But a convincing strategy for Germany as a business location is missing.
Permanent subsidies as an answer to a self-inflicted supply shortage

Especially in difficult times, reliable guard rails are needed. But Habeck is using the energy crisis to give the state an ever greater role. Never before has a federal economics minister bent the rules of the market economy in such a way.

The extreme price increases for all energy sources are an expression of a shortage situation. It would be economically sensible to increase the supply as quickly as possible. Habeck is doing the opposite with nuclear power and coal. The Green also rejects fracking in Germany. And when it comes to liquefied gas imports, the minister will not acquiesce to the demands of Qatar or Canada to conclude longer-term supply contracts. Permanent subsidies in response to a self-inflicted supply shortage are financially unsustainable and harm the competitiveness of the economy.

Expanding the renewables also remains far below target. In order to accelerate the pace, Habeck is now considering government purchase guarantees. However, the fact that the German government is simultaneously threatening all electricity producers with an "excess profits tax" counteracts all expensive investment incentives. With Habeck's planned economy, it is not the energy crisis that will disappear from Germany, but prosperity.
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Vertical dive, maximum speed. Brace yourself. Impact is coming.

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:
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Military failure instead of reliable partner? Germany's turnaround is becoming a pipe burst before it has even begun

There is growing concern among politicians and experts that Germany will remain unreliable in terms of security policy. Above all, plans for rearmament fall short, they say.

"What you leave behind, you find in front of you again," is a common saying in Finland. It refers to something that you simply ignore and that eventually catches up with you.

The saying comes to mind when Finnish political scientist Minna Ålander talks about German security and defense policy. Germany's mistakes in energy, where it relied on Russia as a partner for a long time and gave little thought to security, are now catching up with the German government in the Ukraine war, she says.

Finland, which shares a 1,343-kilometer border with Russia, is different. The country has always maintained its national defense and relies on strategic foresight in security policy, Ålander explains.
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"It is no secret how hard the Bundeswehr has it and where it is lacking. However, the shortcomings have become even more apparent since the war began, and one wonders: what could the Bundeswehr do when the going gets tough?"

For many Finns, it is hard to understand how such a rich, economically strong country like Germany has hardly any military capacity left, the expert lets it be known. In the context of Finland's upcoming accession to NATO, these questions take on a new poignancy when Finland and Germany, as allies, are even more closely committed to each other's security than before.

Finland's southern neighbors - the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - depend on NATO's alliance defense, including Germany in particular. But since Russian leader Vladimir Putin decided to attack Ukraine on Feb. 24, people there are no longer so sure that the Germans would be able to help in an emergency, Ålander says.

One question that Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks also asked publicly recently is: "Can we trust Germany when it comes to defending Latvia and NATO? We are ready to die. And you?"

But it is not only in the Baltics that Germany's reputation as a reliable security partner is under scrutiny. In addition to the long list of shortcomings in the Bundeswehr, ranging from outdated equipment to technical problems, it is above all the dispute over energy dependence on Russia and the delays and U-turns in arms deliveries that are causing uncertainty abroad. Experts and observers in Germany also have doubts.

"The rhetoric of warning is slowly increasing. We see on the one hand that in Germany the time buffer for effective action is being used up. And on the other hand, we have the international partners that are absolutely needed," says Christian Mölling, research director at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

Cooperation is not just a wish of the German government, he says, but a necessity. But this may be lost step by step, the expert explains.

According to observers, the fact that the two-percent target cannot be reached immediately with the announced 100-billion-euro special fund for the Bundeswehr, but will be "stretched out over a longer period of time," as Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has now announced in the Bundestag, does not exactly lead to more confidence among allies. Moreover, countries such as Poland and Finland already meet NATO's target.

The German image in Finland: unprepared, without crisis management

"What's so surprising in Finland is how unprepared Germany was caught by the war and that there was no crisis management at all - militarily and in terms of energy policy," says Minna Ålander. Her impression is that Germany reacted to events, but did not plan ahead.

The most recent example: After much toing and froing, it was decided that the three German nuclear power plants still connected to the grid would continue to run until April 2023 - "but it can already be assumed that the winter of 2024 will be worse, and what then? Energy is an essential part of security policy," says the Finnish political scientist.

Defense budget dispute

The concern that Germany will remain a military failure in addition to its hard-to-fathom energy policy is also being debated in the Bundestag these days, where the budget for the military is being discussed.
"In my view, the 2023 defense budget is indeed irresponsible, lacks ambition and perspective. Meeting the two-percent target has become a distant prospect," criticized Florian Hahn (CSU), defense policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU.

Specifically, he said, there is a lack of ammunition worth 20 billion euros, for example. "The draft budget now contains one billion euros per year for the procurement of ammunition. That means we need 20 years if we continue like this to reach the requirement," Hahn explained.
In an interview with the Bild newspaper, Eva Högl (SPD), the Bundestag's defense commissioner, also called for the ammunition depots to be completely replenished before the end of this legislative period. She is also skeptical about the announced increase in the size of the force from the current 182,000 soldiers to 203,000 men and women in uniform.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) had announced in May that Germany would "soon have the largest conventional army within NATO" in Europe.

Lack of understanding for armaments policy

But even if the Bundestag agreed to increase the special fund, not much would change, notes Christian Mölling. "Defense is a long-term business. Even if they allocate more money for munitions, the question is, do they manage to provide the contracts before the money expires."

"The political leadership has underestimated the complexity of defense projects and the time it takes to set them up," Mölling says. He sees a lack of understanding of how arms deals work, saying other governments before didn't really understand it either.
In general, he says, the issue of war and defense has not been seriously thought through in recent years. "Now all of a sudden you are faced with the challenge that war is in Europe. And of course the decision-makers don't have a good answer to what is best to do. The German government lacks a plan to support Ukraine and build up the Bundeswehr."

Confidence in Northern Europe is crumbling

In Finland, people just shake their heads at this, says political scientist Minna Ålander, while pointing to a difference in mentality. The existential threat posed by Russia is closer to people there, conscription and its necessity have been much discussed but not abolished and are more socially accepted. So is defense spending.

"Like a James Bond movie" This is what Finland brings to NATO militarily.
But the questions being asked there with regard to Germany are not just military ones. They are also about trust.

After all, the hesitant behavior, the unclear communication regarding Ukraine, which seemed like a weighing of the situation, baffled the north. In the Baltic NATO states, in turn, one wonders, should an attack scenario occur, "whether Germany would then also try to negotiate first, or do everything necessary from the first moment to defend the Baltics?"

Poland and the U.S. - the new best friends

The mood in Poland is similar. The country of 38.5 million people is currently arming itself massively - both internally and externally. Which is driven by the fear that Russia could extend the war to Polish territory and invade.

"Defense is a huge priority, and Poland spends a lot of money on it by its standards," Mölling says. The trees may not grow to the sky with this, but the government is prepared to invest consistently and over a long period of time, he says. The Poles are looking primarily to the U.S., which is currently their most important partner.

Conversely, the U.S. also sees Poland as a key ally. "Poland has become our most important partner in continental Europe," Politico magazine quoted a senior U.S. Army official in Europe as saying. He pointed to the crucial role Poland has played in supporting Ukraine and bolstering NATO defenses in the Baltics.

But the shortcomings are also seen in Germany. In a confidential paper first reported by Der Spiegel, Inspector General Eberhard Zorn ordered in September that the Bundeswehr must position itself more effectively for a looming conflict with Russia. Germany must live up to its "leading role in Europe," Zorn summarized in the report.

Has Germany ever had a "leading role"?

The fact that Germany now aspires to this leadership role - Olaf Scholz avoids the term, while his party leader Lars Klingbeil speaks of a "leading power" - was suggested by the chancellor's speech on the turn of the millennium on February 27.

The speech raised high expectations abroad. Minna Ålander analyzed the Finnish view that Germany was doing a U-turn and was now serious about defense. But what followed was disillusionment. Neither the NATO two-percent target would be reached, nor would the 100 billion euros in special assets be enough for an armament that was commensurate with the threat situation, says Ålander.

"The German turnaround has obviously not yet taken place where it should," comments Christian Mölling. In the case of Sweden and Finland, which want to join NATO as a result of the Russian war of aggression, the own turning point is all the more evident, he says.

Moreover, states that have been patient for a long time because they had no security policy alternatives are already looking for other partners, he said. "For Germany, time is running out."

Alternative partner: Great Britain

This is evident in Finland right now. In terms of security policy, the Nordic countries are looking to a different ally: "It has long been the case that the UK is a much more important security partner - for all the Nordic countries," says political scientist Ålander.

"While Germany is often highlighted as one of many like-minded security allies, none of the four Nordic countries see Germany as the most important European security and defense partner," according to a letter from the think tank Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. This is unlikely to change any time soon.

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[Skybird]

Its considered to be not polite tp tell somebody that one had told him so, but - I told you so.
Der Tagesspiegel:
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The Bundeswehr is in an even worse position today than it was before the Ukraine war. Its ammunition reserves would last for two days in the event of war. Does SPD Minister Lambrecht even want combat-ready armed forces?

Do we want armed forces that can defend our country and allies? If you look at the Basic Law [German constitution, Skybird] or current surveys, the answer is clearly yes. However, if you look at the state of the Bundeswehr, doubts are warranted, because governments and the Bundestag have been running the army down for decades.

The fact that Germany's armed forces are no longer feared in Europe may be an advantage. That allies laugh at them is not so good, but it happens more and more often. Even a German battle tank is only as good as its radio communications or its ammunition supply. And when German armored infantrymen borrow stable tents from smaller countries during maneuvers because they can't get any themselves, that's bitter for them. But also embarrassing for Germany.

Now there was a "turn of the times", and after that something changed, at least in words and resolutions. Unfortunately, not in deeds. Because nine months after the beginning of the second Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Bundeswehr is just as "blank" (a word used by the army chief) as it was on February 24. It is probably even worse off because weapons and material from the Ukraine aid are not being reordered.

It is inexplicable why investments in weapons and material have been reduced in the defense budget for 2023 and why the budget of Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) speaks more in favor of downsizing than growth. That's why the troops continue to stand still, even literally: by the beginning of October, the tight fuel budget had almost been used up. Only with all kinds of budgetary tricks could the tanks continue to be filled, as a CDU deputy found out in response to persistent questioning.

But there is a "special fund," he retorted. Yes, the parliament has approved a loan of 100 billion euros. However, the ministry had to cut the procurement list sharply because interest, currency losses and inflation were not included. This could have been known, but it was ignored. So the finished economic plan was not available until mid-November. In the meantime, the purchasing power of the 100 billion Chancellor's promise has fallen to about 85 billion. You'd think you could buy all kinds of things with that.

However, four weeks before the end of the year, it emerges that practically nothing has been ordered so far. Parliament has not yet seen any proposals for helicopters, combat aircraft or corvettes. All parliamentary groups, with the exception of the SPD, complained about this during the budget debate and demanded more speed. But why do members of the government and the opposition have to beg Lambrecht to please, please spend the money faster? Does the minister and former functionary of the Parliamentary Left perhaps not want combat power for the armed forces at all?

The budget debate was also embarrassing for Olaf Scholz, and not only because of his broken two-percent promise. The chancellor has promised NATO to have an entire division ready for action again starting in 2025, or about 15,000 soldiers. To equip the "Chancellor's Division," other army units will have to be further plundered. After all, no one in the Ministry of Defense believes that it will be possible to procure the necessary new equipment, tanks and artillery by the end of 2024. Of course, this is especially true if nothing is ordered at all. Whether the chancellor already knows this, and whether the minister has already understood the problem?

Finally, it is puzzling why Lambrecht does not invest in ammunition. Even before the war began, the Bundeswehr lacked artillery shells or rockets worth more than 20 billion euros. The requirement is calculated on the basis of NATO's stipulation that ammunition be kept in stock for 30 days of fighting. Even that is quite modest, considering the past nine months in Ukraine. The Bundeswehr currently claims to have enough for two days of fighting, details of which are secret. So now, a lot would have to be ordered quickly. Why isn't this happening? Does the minister prefer forces without ammunition?

The ammunition issue is one of many. One year after taking office, Lambrecht still has no concept for the armed forces, no reform proposal for the overburdened defense bureaucracy, no idea of European armaments cooperation, no thought of a major restructuring of the procurement system. For eleven months now, a non-expert state secretary and party friend from the judiciary has been tinkering with a so-called "stocktaking". The minister is said to be gradually finding her way into the office she never really wanted. That can hardly be enough.
---------------------------

Dont trust the Germans.

And this saddening carricature of defence mninster is in the main just this: utmost incompetent, clueless and incapable.

The 100 billion budget, btw, also is no longer meant to be "additional" to the regular yeraly defenc ebudget, but is entirely planned to be sued to beef the regular budget to its nominal level. And even this they do not acchieve.

[Skybird]

Der Tagesspiegel:

-------------------

Because hydrochloric acid is missing : The energy crisis also threatens our drinking water

There is a lack of hydrochloric acid for purifying water. High energy prices and disruptions in the supply chain are to blame. If things continue like this, even drinking water is at risk, chemical companies warn.

The energy crisis and faltering supply chains could threaten Germany's water supply. The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI), whose companies supply key products for cleaning and treating drinking water and wastewater, warns of this. "Municipal utilities have their backs to the wall, not only because of pricing, but also because of the low availability of basic chemicals," new VCI President Markus Steilemann said Monday in Berlin.

Under normal conditions, these chemicals would be produced in Germany, but because of high energy prices and compromised supply chains, there are now threatening shortages, he said. For example, there is a shortage of hydrochloric acid dissolved in water for wastewater treatment. As a result, he said, individual authorities have already suspended environmental regulations for the short term: "This means higher phosphate levels in wastewater are tolerated, so you can discharge higher phosphate levels into waterways."

As yet, the grievance primarily affects wastewater, Steilemann said. "But if the supply bottlenecks continue to develop as dramatically as they are at the moment, it is foreseeable that the problem will spill over into the fresh water supply. Then drinking water quality can no longer be guaranteed, or at least there will be drinking water restrictions." In Germany, Steilemann warned, many people don't realize the seriousness of the situation when supply chains no longer function: "It's really the case that in the meantime, due to high energy prices and the collapse of local value chains, certain supplies are at risk for the population."

The VCI president, who is CEO of plastics manufacturer Covestro, called for the German government to tackle the energy crisis much faster and more effectively than it has so far. He said that the chemical industry is dominated by medium-sized companies, with 1700 of the 1900 member companies falling into this category. Among these companies, he said, the need is currently great. "The situation of the energy-intensive chemical and pharmaceutical industry in Germany is more dramatic than ever before." For decades, he said, there have not been as many concerned calls to VCI headquarters in Frankfurt as there are at present. "I expect that we are facing a wave of insolvencies, but it is still unclear when it will come and how big it will be."

He added that the German government has announced many support programs, including the electricity and gas price brakes. However, there is a great danger that the aid for industry will come too late and be watered down. As an example, Steilemann cited the idea of prohibiting companies that use the brakes from paying bonuses and dividends. Among the necessary investors abroad, especially in the USA, this requirement would meet with complete incomprehension.

The manager demanded that Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) put his foot down and immediately introduce the gas price brake as proposed by the Gas Commission. This also included renegotiations with the EU Commission on the obstructive state aid provisions of the Temporary Crisis Framework (TCF). "Our companies need relief now, before it's too late, and they need it without cutbacks and without rampant bureaucracy."
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[mapuc]

^^ It's not only Germany who lack ammo and weapons-Even Denmark is lacking these things and I can from reading Dargos answer in our Ukraine thread it is bad in The Netherlands.
Don't know about Sweden

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^^ It's not only Germany who lack ammo and weapons-Even Denmark is lacking these things and I can from reading Dargos answer in our Ukraine thread it is bad in The Netherlands.
Don't know about Sweden

Markus

I recently said that its a bit better with the Swedes and far batter wiht the Fins since espoecially the latter always have been pretty much on their gaurds againstt he Russian. They just scratch their heads about the Germans' Russia-policies of past years, and never understood the naivety behind them. It was an itnerview with some Finnish former or active giovenrment member,m I forgot. But they are definitely scratching their heads and voiced undiplomatically frank doubts on Germany's capability and willingness to do its dues regarding NATO . I expect that this attitude is widely spread in the Northern and Baltic region, and I fully agree with it.



I would not even be surprised if one day the Funs or Swedes withdraw their bet to join NATO due to being concerned that they would be in too greta danger of ending up where they must compensate for Germany'S weakness instead of benefitting from NATO'S total strength. The deficits oif German armed forces are deep-rooting, and structural, and will not go away within just 5 or ten years. I also quesiton that ther eis liognb lkastign will to imprive the situation. If somebody asks why I have these dihbts, I cvna only reocmmend ti study how stubboirnly Germany sticks with its hoeplessly unrealistric energy policy and climate goal-driven inner polcies when ti comes to housing, infrastrictre,m traffic and such. The reality-denial inherent to Germany must be seen in order to be believed possible. Its the same with the defence policies.

Forget Germany. Its a lost case, as a political actor massively overestimated.There are reaosns why I have become such a grumpy man: I need to live here and witness the degeneration process at closest distance, since many years.

[mapuc]

^ When I did my military in 87-88 the Swedes used 3.5-4 % of their BNP on the military-In 2000 they used around 1.3-1.5 % of their BNP on the military-It was first many years later, from around 2015/16 the government understod that Putin was a threat
Last year it was 1.45 %.

Here is what it says
"Sweden is proposing to scale up its spending on defense and security preparedness to $12 billion in 2028. Sweden allocated $7.3 billion to that budget line in 2022, equivalent to around 1.45 per cent of GDP, the highest level since 2005."

Markus