Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

More news snippets coming in like every day, indicating high losses for the Ukrainians.


The slow pace is not so much what I am concerned of, though time of course is not a non-factor: the seasons come and go, and what was summer will turn into muddy autumn and cold winter, but so far that is not what worries me. Its the high losses in material that the Ukrainian army seems to suffer what worries me most.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Wagner Group mercenaries will no longer fight in Ukraine after their chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, refused to sign any contract with the Kremlin, a Russian politician has said.

Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Duma defence committee, said Prigozhin had resisted in the days leading up to his attempted coup the calls by the Ministry of Defence for all private armies to sign a contract.

As a result, Prigozhin was informed that "Wagner would not take part in a special military operation" - as the war in Ukraine is called in Russia, Mr Kartapolov said.

He added: "That is, funding, material resources will not be allocated."

Prigozhin himself had said his troops would not be brought under the control of the Russian MoD earlier this month.

[Skybird]

Holiday in Russia - and Russians storm the holiday ressorts in Crimea. At the bridge of Kerch there is a line of cars waiting that is 13 km long. Water bottles had to be distributed amongst the waiting people.

Not from Crimea to Russia - but from Russia to Crimea.

[ET2SN]

[Jimbuna]

I struggle to see how Russia can come out of this in a positive fashion.

Vladimir Putin’s problems are mounting. The Russian President is still reeling from this month’s mutiny by mercenary group Wagner.

The Kremlin is burning through its rainy day fund to bankroll its invasion of Ukraine, and the country has been forced to sell oil at a discount to the likes of India and China.

But another problem is emerging as one of the biggest threats facing the Russian economy. After mass conscription – and an exodus of talented Russians fearful of the war’s impact – there simply aren’t enough workers to fill the jobs available.

Goldman Sachs describes it as the “most binding constraint on the Russian economy”, even ahead of sanctions-related restrictions on capital or technology. With more than two vacancies for every Russian worker, the jobs market is twice as tight as in the UK, where wages have taken off.

Some workers have fled. Others have died on the front line. Many are still fighting. In the words of one economist, it has left companies “screaming” about the lack of young people available to fill roles. And it’s a problem that even the head of the country’s central bank has warned will stoke inflation.

“Whatever happens with the war, the implications of a shrinking workforce on Russia’s economy are extremely negative,” says Liam Peach at Capital Economics.

Putin, who has described Russia’s demographic challenge as one of the few things that keeps him up at night, speaks openly about the issue. In a typical 13-minute rant ahead of a meeting with top Kremlin officials, he admitted that the country’s top brass discuss the “shortage of personnel...all the time”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...10f65c8cf&ei=8

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

I think this time the guy is off a bit.


He is basing on an implication he sets up in the beginning. Russia has huge reserves not just in crack troops, but also in top class weapon systems, an dit deicxded to just burn upo the bad troops and low grade stuff first. BTW, there are precedences for this kind of military logic being put into practice, but okay, lets leave it to that hint.


Here is the problem I have with him this time. I never imp0lied that the resrves of Russia are "grade one troops" and "top class equipement". I made the point, repeatedly, that even inferior, outdated stuff still makes a boom and can kill people and dxestroy tanks. We know that many of Russia's previously proclaimed elite units took a bloody beating in the ealry weeks and months of the war, practically seized to exist. We know thta many unprepared recruits and untrained men got thrown into the trenches. We know that in their current defence scheme, cionssting of three main lines and before that a line pof outposts, they have placed their better troops in the rear, and their cannon fooder in the front. We believe we know that the Ukrainains have engaged the very first defence line - the one behind the forward outposts - just at one location so far, else have fought bitterly with these outposts designed not to stop but to delay them, like the first line also is just for delay, and that Russian air power is coming down on them hard and that they time and again get bogged down up in minefields.


You do not need, apparenbtly, top class equipment and reserve troops to do this to the Ukrainians, it seems. This is where the video is misleading.



Also, the Russians have learned, they have adapted, they have copied the Ukrainians. They started with having underestimated drones in all there many forms and purposes. Now their drone warfare dominates that of the Ukrainians.



I think the guy is too caught up in the traditional thinking here.



If the Ukrainaisn manage to contact the thiord eefnce line, then we will learn whetehr theyx cna accheive a breakthrough, becasue the third line in mosgt places seems to be the one where the Russians have placed their remaining best troops and those with experiences.



Superior numbers, even of inferior quality, have their own charm.



The Russians still maintain complete units alomng their very long border to Asia/China, and towards Europe, btw. Theoretically here is even more material that could be moved to Ukraine.



A full mobilization is seen as risky for Putin, it might upset the population. Still: possible it still is.



And lets not forget: in the Ukrainian East the Russians are advancing along four attack axis currently.



One thing is certain: as things stand right now, the Russian still can afford high losses better and easier than the Ukrainians. And thats the core of the problem.

[mapuc]

...not in the NATO's interest to let Ukraine win, but to weaken Russia, make them soft.

Someone wrote in this thread.

I on the other hand get the feeling that NATO doesn't want Russia to win this.
It's only a feeling.

Russia is far from being weaken.

Markus

[tonschk]

Postwar SS Ukrainian Nazi Galizien Division Refugees In Britain

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by mapuc

...not in the NATO's interest to let Ukraine win, but to weaken Russia, make them soft.

Someone wrote in this thread.

I on the other hand get the feeling that NATO doesn't want Russia to win this.
It's only a feeling.

Russia is far from being weaken.

Markus

True, Russia is far from beaten and probably never will be but NATO are well into the process of being well prepared.

Russia’s armed forces are bruised but by no means beaten in the war in Ukraine, a top Nato official said on Monday, as he laid out the biggest revamp to the organisation’s military plans since the Cold War should Moscow dare to widen the conflict.

“They might not be 11ft tall, but they are certainly not 2ft tall,” Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the Nato Military Committee, told reporters. “So, we should never under-estimate the Russians and their ability to bounce back.”

US President Joe Biden and his Nato counterparts are set to endorse a major shake-up of the alliance’s planning system at a summit in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, next week.

Nato, as an organisation, does not provide weapons or ammunition to Ukraine and has sought to avoid being dragged into a wider war with nuclear-armed Russia.

At the same time, however, it is massively reinforcing the security of member countries near Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.

Around 40,000 troops are on stand-by from Estonia in the north down to Romania on the Black Sea.

About 100 aircraft take to the skies in that territory each day, and a total of 27 warships are operating in the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas, with those numbers set to rise.

Under its new plans, Nato aims to have up to 300,000 troops ready to move to its eastern flank within 30 days.

The plans divide its territory into three zones – the high north and Atlantic area, a zone north of the Alps, and another in southern Europe.

Admiral Bauer said Nato’s new planning is based on the strength of the Russian army before President Vladimir Putin launched the war on Ukraine almost 17 months ago.

He said the war has depleted Russia’s army, but not its navy or air force.

Of Russia’s ground forces, around “94% is now engaged in the war in Ukraine”, he added.

“What we see in general is that the Russians are careful around Nato. They are not seeking a conflict with Nato. I think that is a sign that they are very, very busy,” he said.

“In the land domain, I don’t think they have a lot of forces available to do anything to anyone else.

“But we are convinced that the Russians are going to reconstitute.

“We will continue to look at them as a serious threat, in the maritime, and in the air especially, and in space, they are still very, very, capable, let alone of course in nuclear.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...8349f7ce&ei=11

[Skybird]

Schoigu claims that in Zaporizha and near Donezk alone as many Leopards have been destroyed as were supplied by Poland and Portugal combined. That would then be 16 or 18, if I recall correctly.


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From a captured trench in the south, a Ukrainian soldier speaks out via the messenger "Telegram". He is the commander of a Ukrainian unit trying to break through Russian defense lines in the south:

"We are forced to stay on this position again. The trench is full of bodies of the Russians. We have been trying to sleep, to rest. We have been sleeping on corpses. I have never had such an experience. But is it soft. I can say that much."

[Focus]

[Exocet25fr]

Shoigu said on Monday that Ukraine has lost 16 Leopard tanks and 3 AMX-10RCs in a journey.......

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Schoigu claims that in Zaporizha and near Donezk alone as many Leopards have been destroyed as were supplied by Poland and Portugal combined. That would then be 16 or 18, if I recall correctly.

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Which type was it 1 or 2 ?

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

It seems type Leopard type 2A4

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...ortugal-Shoigu