Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Russia is running out of tanks. That's the inescapable conclusion from reports that it's transporting some of its reported 2,500 stored T-62s to support its war in Ukraine. The T-62 is a very old tank indeed. Designed in the late 1950s to compete with the UK Chieftain and US M60, some examples in Russian storage bases are likely to be approaching 60 years old. Production ceased in 1975 after which it was largely relegated to reserve service. It's unlikely that Russia is reactivating its very oldest T-62s. It's more likely that the tanks being transported to Ukraine are T-62Ms, modernized in 1983 with protection and mobility improvements and a new fire control system. T-62s were heavily used in Afghanistan in the 1980s and Chechnya in the 1990s, suffering heavy losses - according to US sources, nearly 325 T-62s were lost in the Soviet-Afghan war.

Russia last used T-62s in combat in 2008 during the brief war in Georgia. Russia renovated an estimated 60-120 T-62s to participate in the 2018 Vostok military exercise held in Siberia and the Russian Far East. Some of these T-62s were likely subsequently shipped to Syria to replace the Syrian Army's substantial war losses. Several thousand more T-62s are still in use around the world. 900 were reportedly designated in Russia as a mobilization reserve. The Ukrainians haven't specified how many Russian T-62s are being reactivated. Many stored units are likely in a very poor condition.

In particular, it's very unlikely that stored T-62s have modern optics or fire control systems. Russia may have cannibalized unserviceable examples of more modern stored tanks such as T-72s or T-80s to retrofit their systems onto the T-62s it's reactivating. Russia certainly wouldn't be doing this if it wasn't losing huge numbers of T72s/80s/90s. Ukraine claims that Russia has lost over 1,200 tanks. A plot of claimed losses shows how unsustainable this is - as many claimed lost in 1 month as in the entire Soviet-Afghan war. T-62s are inferior in every way to more modern Russian/Soviet tanks. They have a smaller gun (115 mm vs 125 mm), thinner armor, no autoloader, obsolete fire control systems and radios, no night combat capabilities, lower speeds and a slower rate of fire.

The T-62 also presents significant logistical difficulties. The T-72, T-80 and T-90 all have a shared heritage with common parts and ammunition and a high degree of interoperability. The T-62 has a completely different lineage, descending from the venerable T-55. This means that Russia will find it far harder to maintain, repair and resupply T-62s in the field. The tanks will need their own supply chain of ammunition and parts, completely separate from that of the T-72/80/90. With logistics under strain, this will be a challenge. In the anti-tank missile-saturated environment of Ukraine, where modern T-90s have proven vulnerable, T-62s are likely to be death traps for their crews. They are unlikely to resist even old anti-tank missiles and have horribly exposed ammunition stowage within the hull.

It's been speculated that Russia may seek to replace its battalion tactical group (BTG) armor losses by padding them out with reactivated T-62s. I don't think this sort of frontline use is likely, due to the tanks' vulnerabilities. They didn't perform well in Syria. Instead, Ukraine's General Staff say that the T-72s are to be used to equip reserve battalion tactical groups. I suspect they may be used in rear areas to reinforce checkpoints and suppress resistance - perhaps also to provide insurance against Ukrainian breakthroughs. Even old tanks can still be formidable in such support roles. As old as the T-62 is, Russia may still nonetheless find it a useful asset in this war, albeit in a tightly limited capacity well away from Ukraine's arsenal of Javelins, NLAWs and Stugnas. With Russia abolish maximum age when signing up for the army oldies could easily use them.

[Dargo]

Adult content and not 'family friendly'

Jimbuna

[Catfish]

9th russian General has been killed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, shot down over Luhansk.

"Major General Kanamat Botashev has become the highest-ranking Russian pilot to be killed in the skies over Ukraine, the BBC’s Russian service reported Tuesday.

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet over the Luhansk region on Sunday when the aircraft was targeted by a Stinger shoulder-fired missile system, the BBC reported, citing three of Botashev’s former subordinates who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The pilot did not have time to eject from his aircraft and died.

According to the BBC’s sources, the Su-25 had been on a mission to strike at Ukrainian positions around the town of Popasna, which was recently captured by Russian forces."

edit: it says he was the 13th general killed, in the article?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/anothe...ead-in-ukraine

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

9th russian General has been killed during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, shot down over Luhansk.

"Major General Kanamat Botashev has become the highest-ranking Russian pilot to be killed in the skies over Ukraine, the BBC’s Russian service reported Tuesday.

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet over the Luhansk region on Sunday when the aircraft was targeted by a Stinger shoulder-fired missile system, the BBC reported, citing three of Botashev’s former subordinates who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The pilot did not have time to eject from his aircraft and died.

According to the BBC’s sources, the Su-25 had been on a mission to strike at Ukrainian positions around the town of Popasna, which was recently captured by Russian forces."

edit: it says he was the 13th general killed, in the article?

https://www.thedailybeast.com/anothe...ead-in-ukraine

Correct now 13 generals and 40 colonels are dead.

[Dargo]

https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opi...e-kremlin.html

What Is Really Going on in the Kremlin?

Something is seriously wrong in Moscow. The question is not whether Russia is in crisis, but how severe the crisis is and whether it is enough to unsettle President Vladimir Putin. Based on current evidence, I would be surprised if he can rule Russia until the end of this year.

Global media are lost when it comes to reports on what is going on in the Kremlin because there is a lack of both official information and informal contact with Russian decision makers. They therefore either report little or nothing. Meanwhile, tabloids such as the New York Post, Daily Mirror and Daily Mail are having a heyday, bringing their readers all the exciting rumors and analysis that the mainstream media should also be able to offer.

Yet, for an old Kremlinologist, the current sources offer a gold mine. The situation reminds me of the old Soviet days when leftwing Western Sovietologists claimed that we must not listen to dissidents and refugees because they were biased but had to stick to official information. Well, that generation of Sovietologists went out of business with the end of the USSR.

Then as now, it’s important to look closer and pay attention to the emerging signals.

The first observation is that the Kremlin must be starting to panic, having suddenly imposed a Stalinist extreme censorship on truth.

The second is that Putin’s war in Ukraine is an outstanding failure for which he is guilty in every regard. His aim – the whole of Ukraine – was far too grand and arrogant, while his resources – only 200,000 soldiers –far too meagre.

Then, he decided to command the war himself, just like Tsar Nicholas II and Adolf Hitler, demonstrating his ignorance of military matters. When things went bad, he centralized his power further, aggravating existing mistakes.

The destruction of the Russian military is evidence of Putin’s rule of authoritarian kleptocracy. Since everyone from the top down has followed his legacy of maximum corruption, the Russian military has been stolen empty by everybody from Putin, to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, to caterer Yevgeny Prigozhin to Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov and down the line.

Not only does Putin not understand much to begin with, but he has isolated himself with two nutcases – Yuri Kovalchuk, his corrupt crony from St. Petersburg, and Nikolai Patrushev, his extreme nationalist national security advisor. Few advisors would be worse.

Foolishly, Putin did not understand that the West was serious when it threatened him with severe sanctions if he attacked Ukraine. He carried on regardless, and the West followed through with a tidal wave of devastating sanctions on Russia. The soft consensus expects a GDP fall of only 10%. My guess is 20%.

However incompetent the Russian military may be, deep down they understand that Putin embarked on a conquest of madness. A vocal military opposition member reacts by calling for full mobilization, recognizing that 200,000 soldiers was not enough and that 800,000 were needed. Others noted that the war as such was simply unrealistic.

Putin’s aides who previously seemed moderate, such as former President Dmitri Medvedev and former Prime Minister Sergei Kirienko, have suddenly radicalized and joined the party of war, seeing it as the way to Putin’s heart. Kirienko has successfully replaced Putin’s former Ukraine officials Vladislav Surkov and later Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Kozak (who have disappeared from public eye) in taking responsibility for the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

Following long periods of public silence, Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff General Valeriy Gerasimov are still in place but have clearly lost official prominence and presumably Putin approval.

There are many reports of the sacking of top military commanders, while the Ukrainians claim to have killed no less than 13 Russian generals and 40 colonels. The Kremlin has sacked at least two top military commanders: Vice Admiral Igor Osipov as the chief of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet after the sinking of its flagship the Moskva, along with Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, commander of the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, for failing to capture Kharkiv.

One of the most mysterious and odious parts of this story is that at least eight top Russian businessmen in the Gazprom, Gazprombank and Novatek sphere have committed suicide after first having stabbed their families to death. These look like obvious FSB murders, rumored to be based on Putin’s complaints about FSB leaks to the U.S.

We know that Putin is afraid of meeting his closest collaborators in person, yet is seemingly content meeting air hostesses. This cannot be about Covid-19, but about Putin’s fear of being murdered by his closest associates.

To these many facts, we may add strong rumors. The most prominent are claims that Putin is suffering from blood cancer, is interacting daily with doctors and is about to undergo a major operation. Some publications even cite Parkinson’s and dementia. Meanwhile, even madder Patrushev is supposed to be in command, while legally it should be Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

The excellent investigative journalists Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan have reported major divisions between the militant military and the cautious FSB foreign service, whose head, General Colonel Sergei Beseda, is reported to have been arrested.

It would be very surprising if Putin survives the biggest Russian military loss since 1905, dragging the Russian economy back to 1991 and dividing the Russian security forces as never before.

[Dargo]

Some 82% of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine should not give away any territory as part of a peace deal with Russia, according to a new survey by one of the country's top pollsters.

The huge majority said they did not support territorial concessions, even if it prolonged the war and increased the threat to Ukraine's independence, according to the poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Just 10% of the 2,000 people surveyed found it acceptable for Ukraine to concede territory to achieve peace, while 8% were undecided.

According to the poll, 77% of Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territory opposed any land concessions.

The Ukrainian government has consistently said it will cede no territory to Moscow. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61546571

[Dargo]

Hungary declares a state of emergency due to war in Ukraine. Pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a video message that the war posed a threat to Hungary's security, the financial sector and energy supplies. The state of emergency will take effect at midnight and will give Budapest “room to maneuver and the ability to react immediately.”

Orbán can now continue to govern with almost unlimited power. He has the power to approve measures by decree without parliamentary oversight. With the new state of emergency, the government can "react immediately and protect Hungary and Hungarian families in all possible ways," Orbán said.

"The government has once again changed the rules of the game to suit its own needs," writes Emese Pásztor of the Hungarian Union for Civil Liberties. "It will become the new normal, which threatens the fundamental rights of all of us."

[mapuc]

There will be setbacks and there will be many of them, but in the end Russia will win this war. One of my beloved friend is convince Russia will win the war.

I said I hope not-Cause Europe could most likely be next.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

There will be setbacks and there will be many of them, but in the end Russia will win this war. One of my beloved friend is convince Russia will win the war.

I said I hope not-Cause Europe could most likely be next.

Markus

Russia cannot win this war it is not only the battlefield that determine a win in the long run it falls back to 1991 all gains are lost

[Dargo]

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said. https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-61546571

[Jimbuna]

Russia is trying to encircle the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Donbas region.

The cities sit either side of the Siversky Donets river and have been attacked for weeks.

Overall, the Russian invasion is in the 'most active' phase, Ukraine's defence ministry says.

Two Russian officials suggest the invasion will not end soon, with one saying there is no 'deadline'

Meanwhile, 200 bodies have been found in rubble in Mariupol, an adviser to the mayor says.

Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban declares state of emergency, saying 'the world is on the brink of economic crisis'

And the underground railway in Kharkiv reopens, after being used as a bomb shelter since the invasion began.

[Jimbuna]

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The 63-year-old retired general had been flying a Su-25 fighter jet

Oh those Russians - the older they get, the crazier they become... A 63 year old flew a Frogfoot on a bombing mission himself...?

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Oh those Russians - the older they get, the crazier they become... A 63 year old flew a Frogfoot on a bombing mission himself...?

Shows how the Russian army is in a desperate state