Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

^ We have a saying here in Denmark-
Medens morale er godt dobbeltmoral dobbelt så godt =
While Moral is good double morale is double so good

Markus

[Skybird]

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.



You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

[les green01]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.



You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

you have that right sky way i understand the 5th sanction suppose to block all that but i'll have to see it to believe it

[Buddahaid]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its known since years, European firms delivered components for tanks, fighters, soldier perosnal equipment, sensors, optics, NV, France even wanted to (or did?) deliver complete smaller warships, I seem to recall mine sweepers or landing boats or something in that range. Rheinmetall and SAP (control software for various platforms) until today have running treaties for some stuff. And they are not the only ones. Russia is a market place visited by the who-is-who of European weapons makers.



You reap what you have sowed. I always considered this kind of deal and policy idiotic, short-sighted and hilarious.

That's another aspect of the leased commercial airliner grab. Russia sources components like landing gear from western manufacturers for their domestic production so where are the spares going to come from now? Those aircraft are turned to turds now.

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine's President Zelensky says US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Kyiv on Sunday.

The White House has not confirmed the visit, which Zelensky says will also include US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.

It would be the first visit by top American officials since Ukraine was invaded in February.

Meanwhile, Ukraine says eight people have died in Odesa - including a baby - after an apartment block was hit by missiles on Saturday.

Earlier, Zelensky warned he would call off peace talks with Russia if Mariupol's last defenders are killed.

Ukraine says there will be another attempt to evacuate civilians from the strategically important southern port city.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by les green01

you have that right sky way i understand the 5th sanction suppose to block all that but i'll have to see it to believe it

And I thought they wanted to boycott Russian banks decisively, but in fact only 25-35% of their potential business is being affected, and the biggest banks still do business unharmed. When they set up ultimatums, politicians tend to endlessly extend them, ridiculing the term "ultimatum" that way. It seems with "sanctions" something comparable goes on. Nobody means what he says, and so nobody says what he means.


The problem is this phrase, "one can talk about everything."

No, one cannot. There are things that are not up for negotiation, redefinition, relativization. I insist on that. A lot goes, in talking. But not everything. From some point on it turns into indifference, and complete lack of own identity.

[Reece]

Sorry I have to say this . . . I hate Russia!!

[Skybird]

I hate borscht (and beet, kolhrabi, asparagus in general...)

[ET2SN]

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos?

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos?

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.

I say give Putin a chance to leave or without losing face..For us it's not so important if we lose face or not-Not for me it ain't

From what I understand he is in a need of a victory before 9th May.
Not saying the Ukrainian should give up these two section-Donbass and Luhansk.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I say give Putin a chance to leave or without losing face..For us it's not so important if we lose face or not-Not for me it ain't

From what I understand he is in a need of a victory before 9th May.
Not saying the Ukrainian should give up these two section-Donbass and Luhansk.

Markus

Ukraine only survival is victory, no truce Russia must leave whole Ukraine Putin is aware his invasion is not going to plan. When the Kremlin tells the families of fallen soldiers that their sons and husbands simply disappeared into thin air, they are generating a constituency that learns not to trust the state.

And there are signs that this mistrust is beginning to sap Russians willingness to fight and die in Putin's war this is the context in which I think we should read Putin's decision not to storm Azovstal in Mariupol. He needs to be seen to be preserving the lives of Russian servicemen.

But Russian troops are trying to finish off Azovstal's defenders and more than a thousand civilians hiding in the factory. It is not our or Ukraine task to prevent Putin losing face he made the decision, let him face the consequences.

[Dargo]

The current goal of the Russian Federation is to take the south and connect with the occupied region of Transtrinia. From a strategic point of view, if they achieved this, it would land lock Ukraine. The new offensive stalled even faster than the offensive on Kyiv. It literally is frozen and has been for a couple of weeks. Now that Russia has decided to bypass the remaining fights on Mariupol, the troops are heavily attrited. It is a cynical way to ensure no survivors for war crime trials. Also, dead heroes never argue with official stories. So that is also very convenient.

In other words, Russia has no remaining reserves. They are also losing equipment at a fast clip, and continue to throw units a company at a time. There is more. At this point, Ukraine has more tanks than the Russian Federation. Some are tanks donated from Eastern European inventories. Some are captured Russian equipment, which they are fixing and bringing back into the field. A normal military doctrine states that any offensive needs to have a numeric advantage in both troops and equipment. Russia has neither. They also keep losing general officers at a fast clip. We are to just over half who are no longer in command. Ukraine used artillery to attack a command post in the Kherson oblast, killing two generals and sending a third one to the hospital.

Losing over half of the general officers in an invasion is unprecedented in modern warfare. In the Russian military, this is likely even more of a disaster. This is a military force with a strict top-down command structure, where no creativity is allowed. This means that losing generals and colonels has a very real effect on combat effectiveness.

Units are nowhere close to full personnel rosters, and while sixty thousand have been recalled, they are nowhere close to deploying. Losses are already north of those reserves. Ukraine says it’s killed 21,000. Using a standard multiplier of three for wounded, missing in action, and prisoners of war, this leads to 63.000 Russian losses. These are the kinds of losses we have not seen since World War Two. This was as of the 21. Casualties are higher.

This means that the battle of the Donbas is literally the last possible push. At this point, it seems to not be going anywhere. Nor is the Russian Air Force have any control of the airspace. A counterattack from Ukraine will come, with the benefit of American and European heavy artillery. The only problem is that this will be a knife fight in mostly urban terrain, that both sides know well.

Armies not only run on their stomach. They rely on getting the troops what they need. Whether this is food, water, bullets, or medical support. In the case of Russian troops, cigarettes seem to still be part of the packet. The fact is that they came in for a fast operation, and are ill-equipped for a long campaign. It also tells us why the advance towards Odesa froze early in the campaign. The sinking of the Moskva is not helping. Counter-offensives are starting. And yes, there is partisan activity in the Kherson Oblast well to the rear of Russian front lines.

This intercept points to some of the issues. It is one of many:

This only leaves a very unpalatable choice for the Russian high command. If we are to believe their media, it’s Weapons of Mass Destruction, which of course they will blame on the United States and NATO. Will they get stupid and deploy within Ukraine? Or will they get very stupid and attack a western capital?

If this remains conventional, the Russian army cannot sustain or replace losses. Will Putin order a general mobilization? Perhaps. That would be the only way they could, maybe, recover some initiative months from now. In the meantime, we have a series of strange fires inside the Federation, now including the governor of the Moscow Oblast.

Perhaps Putin has unleashed forces that he no longer controls. After all, the army is not happy, morale is very low, and they have neither the people nor equipment to press on. And there is more, some troops are returning home. They will not tell the stories of glory to their neighbors over vodka. The truth, together with the bodies of the dead, is starting to seep back home.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Sky, how about if we keep the ICBMs in the silos?

NATO needs to tread carefully, Putin has already painted himself into a corner.
I hate this stupid war, but I don't want to see all the cities in the northern hemisphere smoldering.

Your way getting to no nuclear war seems to be that we fall back and give hi what he wants then, yes?
I say that is what encourages him and he must be deterred sinc ehe only understands the language of bruzte force and the readiness to use it.

Have you seen the movie "The darkest hour"? Its about Churchill coming to power. The movie describes the events when Chamberlain tried to plot almost a coup to overthrow Churchill sinc eChamberlain waned to appeasse Hitler even more. His argument was that if one gives Hitler what he wanted, then one could keep Britain out of the war that was looming.

I dare to say we were lucky, all of us, that Chamberlain failed to see that plan through.

Appeasement of brutal tyrants does not work. Never has, never will. Let there be no doubt in the Kremlin that if they set other European and NATO countries on fire, Russia will burn alongside with them and to its maximum brightness.

Strength is the only language here that can get us of this slippery slope towards having even bigger wars in Europe again, caused and wanted by Russia. And if thigns go bad, even a world war.

It has been said before, Putin most likely wants more than just fulfilling crazy nationalistic fairytales. He likely wnats to erect a Russian grain monopole, and he wants those gas and oil fields that were found in Eatsenr Ukraine a couple fo years ago. The tale of Big Russia is probably only the cream on top of the real reasons for the war. If this is right, than it would have been another clever trick, since all the woreld currentl ytakes it for granted that there are no material and eocnbomic goals for the attack on the Ukraine, but queer nationalistic delusions only. Wars cost money, I think the gas and grains argument to explain the Russian invasion have some validity. It also explains why they want to get all the coast. Whbat shoudl they do with Moldavia? Its poor and sad. But takign Ukraine'S access to the sea traffic takes it off the map as an economic rival in grains exports. Matching this is repeated occasional reports that Russia seems to go at great length after devastating fertile agricultural soil in the Ukraine, like Ukraine blocked sweet water delievered to Crimea and causing erosion of fertile farming land there (thats not just ruissian propaganda, but fact-checked truth).

No Chamberlainism with me. I have learned my lesson regarding Putin. I do not intend to make the same mistake twice. It would be cyncial, treacherous, and anti-everything the West claims in ideals for itself.