Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

https://www.economist.com/europe/202...s-drawing-near

Ukraine’s offensive force consists of at least a dozen brigades (some sources say up to 18), nine of which have been armed and supplied by Western allies (a brigade tends to be several thousand men). Those nine are due to have more than 200 tanks, 800 other armoured vehicles and 150 pieces of field artillery in total, according to American intelligence documents which leaked onto the internet in early March and widely circulated in April. It is a large force but with some glaring weaknesses.
The majority of its vehicles have little or no armour. The amount of artillery is relatively modest—the 21st brigade appears to have just ten guns allocated to it. Notably, the newest equipment is spread thinly across units rather than concentrated in a few. Ukraine might make changes to its order of battle in response to the leaks, but it cannot dismantle and reconstitute brigades that might have been training and preparing together for weeks or months.

"the newest equipment is spread thinly across units rather than concentrated in a few."


Oh-oh. I have a bad feeling about this.


It also seems that Ukraine becomes increasingly vulnerable to air attacks. No good news for the Western-delivered tanks. Countering air threats is beyond their ability.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited occupied parts of the Ukrainian region of Kherson.

He attended a military meeting to hear reports from commanders, according to the Kremlin.

Mr Putin is also thought to have visited the Luhansk region. Russia annexed Kherson and Luhansk last year.

Such trips by the Russian leader are rare, although he made a surprise visit to the city of Mariupol in March.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65308470

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited occupied parts of the Ukrainian region of Kherson.

He attended a military meeting to hear reports from commanders, according to the Kremlin.

Mr Putin is also thought to have visited the Luhansk region. Russia annexed Kherson and Luhansk last year.

Such trips by the Russian leader are rare, although he made a surprise visit to the city of Mariupol in March.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65308470

...or his expendible body-double did!?

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

For me it's only the waiting for the upcoming Spring offensive by the Ukrainians Will it be a success ? Will it be a failure ?

I hope they will have success with their offensive and manage to cut the Russian occupation in two.
Which there are some who think they will

Which can be dangerous-Attacking and thereby creating a corridor from Mariopol or Melitopol to where the front is now.

I believe they will take the rest of Kherson Oblast down to the Crimea border.
Can even be they take/try to take Donbass.

Markus

[Skybird]

I fear the repairing of that Leo-2 will take some more effort than just the few profanities Deny laid out. All wiring. All existing hydraulic and/or electric motor connections between turret and hull, all electronic components must be checked and readjusted. And the gun's loading chamber may also have warped: in that case, more than just a new barrel will be due. Some of the optical systems in the turret are mounted on movable bearings, so they will certainly have to be recalibrated, if not replaced.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

For me it's only the waiting for the upcoming Spring offensive by the Ukrainians Will it be a success ? Will it be a failure ?

I hope they will have success with their offensive and manage to cut the Russian occupation in two.
Which there are some who think they will

Which can be dangerous-Attacking and thereby creating a corridor from Mariopol or Melitopol to where the front is now.

I believe they will take the rest of Kherson Oblast down to the Crimea border.
Can even be they take/try to take Donbass.

Markus

The Russians certainly expect an attack at the direction of Melitopol. They have established three defence lines, deeply dug in, and deeply staggered. So it won't be a foregone conclusion for the Ukrainians. And maybe that's why they will not do what the Russians expect. Everyone who has trained martial arts knows how important it is to have a secure footing - and that the actual attack is often preceded by depriving the opponent of his secure footing beforehand, by throwing him off balance. Without this, attack and attack success are often not possible at all. Frontal direct attacks Ukraine can actually afford only if it had total fire superiority. I don't know if it has it, but I doubt it. ukrainian artillery has better quality and skill, but Russia has far higher gun quantity and ammunition.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Meanwhile, Swedish intelligence spokesmen and media report that around fifty Russian spy and sabotage ships are systematically scanning, apparently mapping, and collecting precise location coordinates of offshore wind farms, submarine cables, and pipelines in the Baltic, the North Sea, and the pan-European Atlantic. Several of these vessels have also been confirmed by NATO in the past to probably have the capability for technical sabotage of such critical infrastructure.


50 such ships. In the Baltic and the North Sea and the nearshore Atlantic alone.

[Jimbuna]

Russia has a programme to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea, according to new allegations.

The details come from a joint investigation by public broadcasters in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland.

It says Russia has a fleet of vessels disguised as fishing trawlers and research vessels in the North Sea.

They carry underwater surveillance equipment and are mapping key sites for possible sabotage.

The BBC understands that UK officials are aware of Russian vessels moving around UK waters as part of the programme.

The first of a series of reports is due to be broadcast on Wednesday by DR in Denmark, NRK in Norway, SVT in Sweden and Yle in Finland.

A Danish counter-intelligence officer says the sabotage plans are being prepared in case of a full conflict with the West while the head of Norwegian intelligence told the broadcasters the programme was considered highly important for Russia and controlled directly from Moscow.

The broadcasters say they have analysed intercepted Russian communications which indicate so-called ghost ships sailing in Nordic waters which have turned off the transmitters so as not to reveal their locations.

The report focuses on a Russian vessel called the Admiral Vladimirsky. Officially, this is an Expeditionary Oceanographic Ship, or underwater research vessel. But the report alleges that it is in fact a Russian spy ship.

The documentary uses an anonymous former UK Royal Navy expert to track the movements of the vessel in the vicinity of seven wind farms off the coast of the UK and the Netherlands on one mission.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65309687

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 183,750 people (+620 per day), 3,665 tanks, 2,819 artillery systems, 7,110 armored vehicles

As of the morning of April 19, 2023, the losses of the Russian occupiers are approximately 183,750 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02/22 to 19/04/23 are approximately:

personnel - about 183,750 (+620) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3665 (+4) units,
armored combat vehicles - 7110 (+12) units,
artillery systems - 2819 (+9) units,
MLRS - 538 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 285 (+0) units,
aircraft - 308 (+0) units,
helicopters - 293 (+0) units,
UAVs of operational-tactical level - 2376 (+23),
cruise missiles - 911 (+0),
ships/boats - 18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5692 (+16) units,
special equipment - 330 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3412982

[Jimbuna]