Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Ukrainian ambassador to Turkey reports on progress with Bayraktar production in Ukraine

Vasyl Bodnar, the Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey, has reported on progress on the plan to build a factory in Ukraine to produce Bayraktars [drones]. He discussed this in an interview with the publication RBK-Ukraine, writes European Pravda. "The plant will be built. Exactly a week ago, the Ukrainian government approved a bilateral agreement and sent it to parliament for ratification; this is an agreement on the construction of the plant itself," the diplomat said. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/8/7362308/

[Jimbuna]

Almost 350 residents were evacuated from Donbas during August 8

Mandatory evacuation in Donetsk region is underway. To date, 349 people have been successfully evacuated.

As informs Censor.NЕТ, it was reported by Head of the OVA Pavlo Kyrylenko on telegram.

According to him, of those evacuated, 69 were children and 9 people with disabilities.

"As few people as possible should be left in the region before the heating season. Evacuate on time! Evacuation saves lives!", - stressed Head of Donbas.

[Dargo]

"It's safe to suggest the Russians have probably taken 70-80,000 casualties in less than 6 months. That's a combination of killed in action & wounded in action. That number might be a little lower, a little higher, but that's kind of in the ballpark, which is pretty remarkable." https://twitter.com/CaitlinDoornbos/...90032194363392



Those numbers are like double the average loss per day during WW2. US average 220 in WW2 with those totals vs days of the war, Russia is at 484 per day. That has to be putting a toll on them. Russia is going to have a hard time replenishing that age range lost.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

"It's safe to suggest the Russians have probably taken 70-80,000 casualties in less than 6 months. That's a combination of killed in action & wounded in action. That number might be a little lower, a little higher, but that's kind of in the ballpark, which is pretty remarkable." https://twitter.com/CaitlinDoornbos/...90032194363392



Those numbers are like double the average loss per day during WW2. US average 220 in WW2 with those totals vs days of the war, Russia is at 484 per day. That has to be putting a toll on them. Russia is going to have a hard time replenishing that age range lost.

Across all of Russia, in all provinces, they currently form "volunteer batallions". 30-40 of them.



A general mobilization order may still come, its not off the table. And if need be, it will come.

[Skybird]

This is from a column in the Süddeutsche Zeitung:


What the realist Leo Tolstoy wrote drastic about war and destruction by Russia is frighteningly valid today. A new installment of the Ukrainian Diary.

"When he returned to the village, he found his hut destroyed, the roof had collapsed, the door and the pillars of the altar had been burned, and the interior disgustingly soiled. His son, that handsome boy with the flashing eyes [...] had been killed [...] in the back [...] The old grandfather sat, leaning against the wall of the collapsed hut, mechanically whittling at a stick and staring dully before him. He had just come over from his bee garden. The two haystacks that had been there were burned, the apricot and cherry trees that he had planted and tended himself were broken and half charred, and the beehives along with the bees had also become a victim of the flames.

The wailing of the women was accompanied by the cries of the children, and the hungry cattle, for which there was no food, roared in between. The older children did not think about playing, but looked with frightened eyes at the adults [...] Not a word of hatred against the Russians was heard. The feeling that everyone [...] from the youngest to the oldest, had towards these enemies was stronger than hatred. They told themselves that these Russian dogs were not human beings, and such revulsion and disgust, such astonishment at the senseless cruelty of these creatures seized them that the desire to exterminate them, as one exterminates wolves, rats and poisonous spiders, seemed as natural as the instinct of self-preservation.

The inhabitants of the village now had a choice: either to remain in the old place, persisting in this enmity, and with the greatest effort, at the risk of a repetition of this insane work of destruction, to restore the homestead wrested from the rigid rock - or, in defiance of religious feeling and the deep aversion to everything Russian, to buy peace by submission."

This longer quote could have come from one of the countless narratives of people from rural areas in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv regions, which were occupied by Russians in February 2022 and liberated by Ukrainian forces weeks later. Or of those who managed to escape from the occupied territories in the south or east of the country and tell about what they experienced.

I would not be surprised if some readers would even indignantly assume that these lines are a deliberately insulting discredit of the Russian army, "the second army in the world", which, as we know, always acts against evil and always creates good. Only there are undiscerning Russophobic "neo-Nazis" - of whom, for example, Ukraine is teeming - who do not understand their luck and with the help of treacherous US, British, Polish - almost the entire Occident, as is known, conspired against Russia - try to make the senseless resistance.

However, the "special military operation" is going exactly according to the plan, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu regularly reminds; Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev informs the world public about the next stages of the "special operation", which in the foreseeable future will be extended to Georgia and Kazakhstan, so that the borders of the USSR will be restored as soon as possible.
Tolstoy's narrative was published only posthumously

In reality, this quote does not describe the reality of war in Ukraine in 2022, but that in Chechnya at the end of the 19th century and is taken from the story "Khadji Murat" by Leo Tolstoy (1828-1910). Exactly, the world-famous Russian classic. It is the last work of Tolstoy, who himself joined the Russian army in the Caucasus in 1851 and spent two and a half years there. The Russians were there for several years "liberating" Caucasian peoples, "Khadji Murat" is based on historical events of this war, was written in 1896-1906 and published only posthumously in 1912. The translation from which it was quoted can be found online at "Gutenberg Project", unfortunately without mentioning the translator's name. I believe the quoted text speaks for itself and needs no further comment. After all, it is well known that Tolstoy was a classic of literary realism, not horror literature.

[Jimbuna]

If everyone helped like Germany, war would have ended long time ago with victory of Russia, - Mateusz Morawiecki

Russia would have defeated Ukraine a long time ago if the rest of the countries helped the defense forces as much as Germany does - the first economy in Europe.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki wrote about this in the author's column of The Spectator, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

"If Europe had sent weapons to Ukraine on the same scale and at the same pace as Germany, the war would have ended a long time ago - with Russia's absolute victory," he said, and noted that "Europe would be on the eve of another war."

And today, Morawiecki continued, any voice in the West that "it is necessary to limit the supply of weapons to Ukraine" or to loosen sanctions, or "to bring "both sides" (that is, the aggressor and his victim) to dialogue is a sign of Putin's weakness."

"The truth is that Europe is much stronger than Russia," he emphasized, adding, however, that Europe "needs to wake up." If Europe really wants to talk about democratic values, then, writes the Polish Prime Minister, "the time has come for a big reckoning with the conscience of Europe."

"For too long, the most important value for many countries was the low price of Russian gas. However, now we know that it could be so low because the "blood tax" that Ukraine pays today was not added to it," he said.

[Jimbuna]

Russian poll: 65% of Russians want peace with Ukraine, but 60% would support new offensive on Kyiv

Russian mass media published the results of a public opinion poll, according to which 65% of Russians support the decision to stop the war in Ukraine and sign a peace agreement. At the same time, 60% are ready to support a new attack on the Ukrainian capital.

The Russian publication Kommersant wrote about it, Censor.NET reports.

According to the Russian Field survey, 65% of Russians would approve of Vladimir Putin's decision to stop the military operation in Ukraine and sign a peace agreement.

At the same time, 60% of respondents would also support the Russian president's intention to launch a new attack on Kyiv.

In general, 52% of those polled spoke in favor of continuing the military operation, and 38% were in favor of moving to peace negotiations.

The ratio of supporters and opponents of the war has practically not changed since mid-March, the authors of the study note.

59% of Russians believe that the so-called "military operation" in Ukraine has dragged on, 28% of survey participants hold the opposite opinion.

Almost two-thirds of Russian men (62%) are not ready to personally participate in hostilities in Ukraine. 29% of respondents said they would like to participate in a "special operation", and people aged 45 to 59 (37%) admit this most often, while only 23% of men aged 18 to 29 do.

There are also few people willing to help the Russian military financially: 67% are not at all ready to donate their own funds to support the war, and 12% agree to spend no more than 1,000 rubles a month on this.

The research was conducted by telephone survey on July 28-31. 1,609 respondents in eight federal districts took part in it.

The authors of the study warn that its results on a number of questions about what is happening in Ukraine may not correspond to the real situation, since "Russians are afraid to talk about this topic", in particular, "refusals have increased, sincerity has decreased."

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Dargo

"It's safe to suggest the Russians have probably taken 70-80,000 casualties in less than 6 months. That's a combination of killed in action & wounded in action. That number might be a little lower, a little higher, but that's kind of in the ballpark, which is pretty remarkable." https://twitter.com/CaitlinDoornbos/...90032194363392

well, remember these figures are "estimates". Only the Russians know how many casualties they have taken.

Also remember that the USA and Ukraine have an incentive to exaggerate (i.e. lie) about the casualty figures for propaganda purposes.

Acccording to Russian opposition figures, Russian casualties are probably closer to 10,000. Other analysts have made estimates in the 15-30,000 range.

Note that some analysts have estimated that Ukrainain casualties may be as high as 30,000.

numbers are like double the average loss per day during WW2. US average 220 in WW2 with those totals vs days of the war, Russia is at 484 per day. That has to be putting a toll on them. Russia is going to have a hard time replenishing that age range lost.

Which should be the first clue that these numbers do not make sense. Casualty rates in modern wars are a lot lower than in WW1 or 2 for a variety of reasons.

Russia has roughly 100-120,000 troops involved in the operation. 100-120 BTG at an average of 500 troops in each works out to roughly 50-60,000 troops to which you can add an equivalent number of support troops.

US casualty figures work out to roughly 50% of all Russian troops. If these figures were true, the Russian army would have collapsed and surrendered.

German casualties at Kursk in 1943 worked out to 6% of the entire German force. Allied casualties in the Normandy campaign were roughly 10% of the entire force (226,000 out of 2,000,000 over a 3 month period).

[Jimbuna]

In near future, US will not supply Ukraine with additional HIMARS. Ukrainians cope well with already available number of systems, - Deputy Minister of Defense Kahl

The US does not plan to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces with additional HIMARS in the near future, but instead will focus on ensuring a continuous supply of ammunition to them.

This was announced by US Deputy Defense Minister Colin Kahl, Censor.NET informs with reference to "Interfax-Ukraine".

"Why aren't we seeing more HIMARS and more M777 howitzers, as opposed to munitions and GMLRS; right now, I think -- you know, first of all, we've shipped 16 HIMARS systems, which is actually quite a lot. Again, those aren't the systems , which we estimate you need in the hundreds to have the kind of effect they have. These are high-precision systems for very specific types of targets, and the Ukrainians use them as such," Kahl emphasized.

In addition, he recalled, Great Britain will provide Ukraine with three M270 MRS systems, which are based on a different type of chassis, but use the same missiles as HIMARS, and Germany has pledged to provide three more.

"So our assessment is actually that the Ukrainians are doing pretty well with the number of systems they already have, and actually the priority right now is to ensure a steady flow of GMLRS. The same goes for the M777 howitzers, where we've actually provided a very large number of systems. So are allies and partners, and now the priority is to make sure that the Ukrainians have the ammunition to keep them in the fight," Kahl said.

[Dargo]

"Become a living legend!" With that slogan, Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group is looking for young men who want to fight in Ukraine. The Russian army is also looking for new soldiers through propaganda and recruiting offices popping up everywhere. For as long as a general mobilization in Russia is not forthcoming, the armed forces will have to look for new troops through "voluntary mobilization." The Russian military is not a popular employer, Many boys who have to serve in the military try to escape this. This has to do with the authority relations in the Russian army. There are hard hazing sessions and soldiers are sometimes bullied by their superiors. This has improved in recent years, as have conditions and nutrition. But the army is still not popular.

Because the war in Ukraine requires new soldiers, both the Russian army and the Wagner Group are now targeting mainly poor men from remote areas such as the Urals and Buryatia. Of the "special military operation," as the war against Ukraine in Russia must be called, they often know no more than what state television shows them of it. These are propaganda images full of heroic soldiers, which some men would love to belong to. Those who join the Russian army or the Wagner Group also get a good salary for it. Serving in the army for six months, or working for the Wagner Group, can fetch up to 5,000 euros a month on average. Added to that are things like a bonus for every day of fighting and a good benefit for surviving dependents if a soldier is killed. This quickly becomes attractive for those who normally earn 500 to 1000 euros a month.

According to the independent newspaper The Moscow Times, Russia hopes to attract up to 34,000 new military personnel with this combination of propaganda, brief training and good pay. There are already forty such "voluntary units" from all over the country. Whether that will be beneficial militarily remains to be seen, according to Han Bouwmeester, colonel and associate professor at the Netherlands Defense Academy: "These guys will be sent to the front without much knowledge. They will know how to shoot and how to run a patrol. But comprehensive training is lacking. Compare it to driving lessons: the moment you pass your theory exam, you are not yet an experienced driver."

In the Russian army, quantity is also a quality. If you have a lot of troops, you can use them to impress the opponent. But if some of those men are not good soldiers because of a lack of training, it is of no use to you in battle." In addition, Bouwmeester points out something else: the personal risk for the men who go to the front: "They are totally unprepared for the horrors of war and only know the heroic stories from the state propaganda. But what does the constant pressure and threat of war do to them? In the Russian army, mental problems suffered by soldiers on the battlefield receive no attention. While there is a chance that these very poorly trained boys will one day return home with mental health problems."

Putin has not yet declared martial law. This is for several reasons. First, it would damage the credibility of the narrative that Russians have been told for months now, namely that this is just a military operation in which everything is going according to plan. A general mobilization would confirm that this is not so. Second, it could greatly affect Putin's popularity if the country actually goes into martial law. Military action that does not take place on Russian territory and in which only "paid" soldiers join the fight is emotionally very different for Russians than when everyone is called upon to join the fight. Especially for the residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg, with good jobs and a fairly comfortable life. Moscow is still doing everything possible to keep the fighting in Ukraine as far away from the population as possible, also to avoid unrest and protests in the big cities. This is also one of the reasons why recruitment of new mercenaries takes place mainly in the remote regions; there people are more likely to risk their lives for a high salary, there is less press to record the funerals of fallen soldiers and there is less likely to be mass protest.

https://nos.nl/artikel/2439925-rusla...-in-volle-gang

[Dargo]

There have been multiple explosions at a military airfield on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula. These have left one dead, and five people injured, according to local Russian authorities. Among the injured is a child. Emergency services have been mobilized en masse, the Russian governor of the region has said. The area around the airport has been cordoned off within a five-kilometer radius. The military airport is located in Novofedorivka, near the Black Sea. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the explosions took place in depots. The ministry states that aircraft ammunition went off and that it was not an attack.

The ministry also initially brought out that there were no casualties, but local authorities thus contradicted that. Ukrainian authorities have not yet responded. Speculation is rife on Ukrainian social media that this is a Ukrainian long-range missile attack. An eyewitness tells Reuters news agency that at least twelve explosions could be heard around 3:30 p.m. (local time). Another louder explosion followed half an hour later. In the nearby town of Saki, sirens went off. Images shared by The Kyiv Post show large plumes of smoke rising near the military airport. There have been no attacks on Crimea since the war broke out in February. Moscow previously threatened that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a "fierce retaliation."

Huge traffic jam building at the Kerch Bridge in the east part of Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea. The jam started to build up after news broke of what may have been a Ukrainian rocket or missile attack on a Russian air base near Saki, Crimea. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...26534635995139

[Dargo]

With a $400,000 investment, Russian citizens can obtain new nationality and circumvent the hell of Western sanctions, though Washington isn't happy about it

Turkey’s citizenship-by-investment scheme has been fuelled by a wave of Russians who fled their country after the invasion of Ukraine and are looking for ways to establish new businesses and lives. Ankara’s path to citizenship for investors has been very popular for people in the Middle East since it was launched in 2018. But Russia’s war in Ukraine has spurred a new wave of investors. Crippling international sanctions on Russia and increasing repression of dissent have pushed Russians to look for opportunities in Turkey - a country previously largely viewed by them only as a holiday destination. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/r...ves-businesses

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

There have been multiple explosions at a military airfield on the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula. These have left one dead, and five people injured, according to local Russian authorities. Among the injured is a child. Emergency services have been mobilized en masse, the Russian governor of the region has said. The area around the airport has been cordoned off within a five-kilometer radius. The military airport is located in Novofedorivka, near the Black Sea. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the explosions took place in depots. The ministry states that aircraft ammunition went off and that it was not an attack.

The ministry also initially brought out that there were no casualties, but local authorities thus contradicted that. Ukrainian authorities have not yet responded. Speculation is rife on Ukrainian social media that this is a Ukrainian long-range missile attack. An eyewitness tells Reuters news agency that at least twelve explosions could be heard around 3:30 p.m. (local time). Another louder explosion followed half an hour later. In the nearby town of Saki, sirens went off. Images shared by The Kyiv Post show large plumes of smoke rising near the military airport. There have been no attacks on Crimea since the war broke out in February. Moscow previously threatened that a Ukrainian attack on Crimea would lead to a "fierce retaliation."

Huge traffic jam building at the Kerch Bridge in the east part of Ukraine's Russian-occupied Crimea. The jam started to build up after news broke of what may have been a Ukrainian rocket or missile attack on a Russian air base near Saki, Crimea. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...26534635995139

After I had read your comment I read this in a Danish Newspaper.

One killed and five injured in explosions at Crimean air base
Bombs for Russian warplanes have exploded at the air base, says the ministry, which denies it is an attack

This is stated by pro-Russian authorities and Russia's Ministry of Defense.

A series of loud explosions were heard on Tuesday from the Saki air base, located on the west coast of Crimea.

A Ministry of Defense source told Tass that a breach of the rules on the use of open fire at the base meant that some of the heavy ammunition the planes were loaded with caught fire.

- There is no sign or proof that it was done deliberately, says the source to Tass.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

After I had read your comment I read this in a Danish Newspaper.



Markus

Viktor Andrusiv, a political scientist and former adviser to Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, wrote on the Telegram: ‘As you can understand – missiles with a range of 200-300 km are already in service with us and are being used in our country. ‘The explosions…. today, at the airfield in Novofedorivka in Crimea, are public proof of this.’