Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called Africa "a hostage" of Russia's war during an address to the African Union (AU) on Monday.

Russia's invasion, and its blockade of Ukraine's grain exports, has sparked grain and fertiliser shortages and put millions of people at risk of hunger.

AU's chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat called for the "urgent need for dialogue" to restore global stability.

Western countries have urged Russia to release Ukraine's vast grain stores.

The blockade has sparked warnings that tens of millions of people are at risk of famine and it has sent food prices soaring.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called Russia's blockade a "real war crime".

"Africa is actually a hostage... of those who unleashed war against our state", Mr Zelensky said during an address to the African Union.

He said his government was engaged in "complex negotiations" to unblock grain reserves trapped in Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

"This war may seem very distant to you and your countries. But the food prices that are catastrophically rising have already brought [the war] to the homes of millions of African families," Mr Zelensky added.

Following Mr Zelensky's address, Mr Mahamat said: "We reiterated the AU position of the urgent need for dialogue to end the conflict to allow peace to return to the region and to restore global stability."

Is Russia exporting grain from Ukraine?
Ukraine calls for safe passage for grain exports
Ukraine war: WTO boss warns of global food crisis
Mr Borrell met with EU foreign ministers on Monday to discuss the crisis.

Ahead of the meeting in Luxembourg, Mr Borrell said: "This is a real war crime, so I cannot imagine that this will last much longer."

In a news conference, Mr Borrell said Russia's blockade of Ukrainian grain exports was "a deliberate attempt to create hunger in the world".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61864049

[mapuc]

< ^ Now isn't that just wonderful. Read some minutes ago about a warning for a supply crisis this coming winter.

Russia cut oil and gas to Europe and sell it instead to China-It's going well with our sanctions.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

China as per usual will screw everyone else if it means benefitting themselves.

[Jimbuna]

[Rockstar]

Some hard thoughts about post Ukraine

June 19, 2022 by Graham E. Fuller • Uncategorized • Tags: China Belt and Road Initiative US hegemony, Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine •
by Graham E. Fuller (grahamefuller. com)

18 June 2022


https://grahamefuller.com/some-hard-...-post-ukraine/

The war in Ukraine has dragged on long enough now to reveal certain clear trajectories. First, two fundamental realities:

1. Putin is to be condemned for launching this war– as is virtually any leader who launches any war. Putin can be termed a war criminal–in good company with George W. Bush who has killed vastly greater numbers than Putin.

2) secondary condemnation belongs to the US (NATO) in deliberately provoking a war with Russia by implacably pushing its hostile military organization, despite Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines, right up to the gates of Russia. This war did not have to be if Ukranian neutrality, á la Finland and Austria, had been accepted. Instead Washington has called for clear Russian defeat.


As the war grinds to a close, where will things go?


Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate.


American sanctions against Russia have turned out to be far more devastating to Europe than to Russia. The global economy has slowed and many developing nations face serious food shortages and risk of broad starvation.
There are already deep cracks in the European façade of so-called “NATO unity.” Western Europe will increasingly rue the day that it blindly followed the American Pied Piper to war against Russia. Indeed, this is not a Ukrainian-Russian war but an American-Russian war fought by proxy to the last Ukrainian.


Contrary to optimistic declarations, NATO may in fact ultimately emerge weakened. Western Europeans will think long and hard about the wisdom and deep costs of provoking deeper long term confrontations with Russia or other “competitors”of the US.
Europe will sooner or later return to the purchase of inexpensive Russian energy. Russia lies on the doorstep and a natural economic relationship with Russia will possess overwhelming logic in the end.
Europe already perceives the US as a declining power with an erratic and hypocritical foreign policy “vision” premised upon the desperate need to preserve “American leadership” in the world. America’s willingness to go to war to this end is increasingly dangerous to others.


Washington has also made it clear that Europe must sign on to an “ideological” struggle against China as well in some kind of protean struggle of “democracy against authoritarianism”. Yet, if anything this is a classic struggle for power across the globe. And Europe can even less afford to blunder into confrontation with China–a “threat” perceived primarily by Washington yet unconvincing to many European states and much of the world.


China’s Belt and Road initiative is perhaps the most ambitious economic and geopolitical project in world history. It is already linking China with Europe by rail and sea. European exclusion from the Belt and Road project will cost it dearly. Note that the Belt and Road runs right through Russia. It is impossible for Europe to close its doors to Russia while maintaining access to this Eurasian mega project. Thus a Europe that perceives the US already in decline has a little incentive to join the bandwagon against China. The end of the Ukraine war will bring serious reconsideration in Europe about the benefits of propping up Washington’s desperate bid to maintain its global hegemony.


Europe will undergo increasing identity crisis in determining its future global role. Western Europeans will tire of subservience to the 75 year American domination of European foreign policy. Right now NATO is European foreign policy and Europe remains inexplicably timid in asserting any independent voice.How long will that prevail?
We now see how massive US sanctions against Russia, including confiscation of Russian funds in western banks, is causing most of the world to reconsider the wisdom of banking entirely on the US dollar into the future. Diversification of international economic instruments is already in the cards and willl only act to weaken Washington’s once dominant economic position and its unilateral weaponisation of the dollar.


One of the most disturbing features of this US-Russian struggle in Ukraine has been the utter corruption of independent media. Indeed Washington has won the information and propaganda war hands down, orchestrating all Western media to sing from the same hymnbook in characterizing the Ukraine war. The West has never before witnessed such a blanket imposition by one country’s ideologically-driven geopolitical perspective at home. Nor, of course, is the Russian press to be trusted either. In the midst of a virulent anti-Russian propaganda barrage whose likes I have never seen during my Cold Warrior days, serious analysts must dig deep these days to gain some objective understanding of what is actually taking place in Ukraine.


Would that this American media dominance that denies nearly all alternative voices were merely a blip occasioned by Ukraine events. But European elites are perhaps slowly coming to the realization that they have been stampeded into this position of total “unanimity”; cracks are already beginning to appear in the façade of “EU and NATO unity.” But the more dangerous implication is that as we head into future global crises, a genuine independent free press is largely disappearing, falling into the hands of corporate-dominated media close to policy circles , and now bolstered by electronic social media, all manipulating the narrative to its own ends. As we move into a predictably greater and more dangerous crises of instability through global warming, refugee flows, natural disasters, and likely new pandemics, rigorous state and corporate domination of the western media becomes very dangerous indeed to the future of democracy. We no longer hear alternative voices on Ukraine today.


Finally, Russia’s geopolitical character has very likely now decisively tilted towards Eurasia. Russians have sought for centuries to be accepted within Europe but have been consistently held at arms length. The West will not discuss a new strategic and security architecture. Ukraine has simply intensified this trend. Russian elites now no longer possess an alternative to accepting that its economic future lies in the Pacific where Vladivostok lies only one or two hours away by air from the vast economies of Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul. China and Russia have now been decisively pushed ever more closely together specifically out of common concern to block unfettered US freedom of unilateral military and economic intervention around the world. That the US can split US-induced Russian and Chinese cooperation is a fantasy. Russia has scientific brilliance, abundant energy, rich rare minerals and metals, while global warming will increase the agricultural potential of Siberia. China has the capital, the markets, and the manpower to contribute to what becomes a natural partnership across Eurasia.


Sadly for Washington, nearly every single one of its expectations about this war are turning out to be incorrect. Indeed the West may come to look back at this moment as the final argument against following Washington’s quest for global dominance into ever newer and more dangerous and damaging confrontations with Eurasia. And most of the rest of the world–Latin America, India, the Middle East and Africa– find few national interests in this fundamentally American war against Russia.


==================


Graham E. Fuller is a former Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA with responsibility for global intelligence estimates.

[Dargo]

Turkey is unlikely to make a decision on the possible accession of Finland and Sweden at the NATO summit in Madrid next week. Turkey does not see the summit as a deadline, says a spokesman for Turkish President Erdoğan. Talks between the three countries will continue.

[Dargo]

There is no question of a blockade of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, Lithuania and the EU say. Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania and is normally supplied by rail by Belarus and Lithuania. Last weekend, Lithuania decided that certain Russian goods could no longer be transported via the rail route. The background to the Lithuanian decision is the sanctions list agreed upon in the EU context. According to Lithuania, the decision is a consequence of implementing those sanctions.

Soon, other goods will be added to the list of goods banned from the Lithuanian railroad. In July, the transport of concrete and alcohol will end, in August it will be the turn of coal, and from December on, oil. According to the governor of the region, this is about 50 percent of the goods that Kaliningrad normally receives by rail. Russia reacted furiously, speaking of a blockade. Kremlin spokesman Peskov revealed that Russia "reserves the right to take action to defend its national interests." It is unclear exactly what Peskov is referring to. As a member of NATO, Lithuania knows itself protected by Article 5 should Russia decide to enter Lithuanian territory.

The Russian exclave is home to over 400,000 people. Strategically, the region is of great importance. Russia has stationed missiles there that can be equipped with nuclear warheads, and Kaliningrad is the home port of the Baltic fleet. By sea, the exclave can simply be supplied by Russia. That is also why EU foreign coordinator Josep Borrell rejects any comparison with the blockade of Ukrainian ports: "The rest of the world is not affected by what happens in Kaliningrad, but it is affected by what happens in Ukraine."

[Catfish]

[Skybird]

On the article by Graham Fuller,



Some agreement, some disagreement from me. Probably more agreement than disagreement.

The dollar goes strong against the Euro, btw. And Putin does not need to be triggered by NATO expansion to go to war. If he was serious about that "Russia is where Russians are", then it plays not that big role than was assumed until before the war.

The two biggest loosers in all this indeed are first: the Ukraine, obviously, and second: Europe. I also agree that the Ukraine already has lost, i just said it yesterday or the day before. The economic damages and the destruction, the split, the prevailing tension with Russia that will live beyond any possible future seize fire (if the ukriane even survives as a state), all this will not help the Ukraine to succeed. The promise for future EU membership is useless, it does nothing, is cheap, and will never be more than a promise. Even if Russia looses all field battles from now on (and they don't anymore...), Ukraine has lost nevertheless. Washington I think is most interested now in doing as much damage to Russian military as possible.

Europe's long fall into economic weakness and political irrelevance has begun already before this. They do not want to see it, but I see it since many years. In principle it is a late consequences of WWII. The decades of wealth and prosperity where biought on tick, the pollticla rleervance and military might was already gone, the Us had been the successor. But since two decades or three, also a massive cultural erosion and self-destruction has begun. I know that the term has a negative bias due to the use of it by the Nazis, but I use it anyway: Europe degenerates. The US too, but it has more power to keep paddling and keep the head over water.

The EEC was no bad project/idea, but with the end of the cold war it choosed terribly wrong for what direction to go; and what it wanted to become since then, is a road into self-destruction and desaster. Europe is doing away with itself, unforced, voluntarily. Its not war and foreign aggression destroying it: but choice. One could be romantic or prosaic and call it an almost Greek tragedy. I prefer to be angry and furious. There is no beauty and no gallantry in fall. Stupidity is no compliment.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Russia warned NATO member Lithuania that unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea was swiftly restored then Moscow would take undisclosed measures to defend its national interests (Reuters)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...it-2022-06-20/

Words again or do they dare ?

Markus

Russia can only be the bully, all losers are bullies

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Lithuania knows itself protected by Article 5 should Russia decide to enter Lithuanian territory.

Call it a hope, not knowledge. The lead of NATO'S reinforcement forces in Lithuania is in the hands of - Germany. And high ranking NATO militaries repeatedly voiced doubts that they could defend the three small Baltic states against a serious Russian attack. Its a again a question of numbers. Better NATO forces: but too few of them.

Such an attack would nto come out of the blue, but would need preparation that NATO would take note of, giving it time to - hecitcally - beef up its own defences. Air power by the US I assume would play the deciding role. There was a not much taken note of battle in Syria where 30 US soldiers that just at the end got reinforced, were attacked by 500 Russian Wagner mercenaries and regime-loyal fighters. The battle ended with the Americans calling in heavy air support and the death of over 300 regime fighters and Wagner mercs. I red that some time ago.

I think the focus regarding Kaliningrad will shift to naval supply actions and possible sabre rattling on the seas.

Kaliningrad is heavily armed up by the Russians. Including ballistic missiles and nuclear ammunition.


I recommend googling "Suwalki gap".

Strategically, NATO must take Kaliningrad anyway. Its Europe's Cuba missile crisis. And it is a big danger to NATO.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Call it a hope, not knowledge. The lead of NATO'S reinforcement forces in Lithuania is in the hands of - Germany. And high ranking NATO militaries repeatedly voiced doubts that they could defend the three small Baltic states against a serious Russian attack. Its a again a question of numbers. Better NATO forces: but too few of them.

Such an attack would nto come out of the blue, but would need preparation that NATO would take note of, giving it time to - hecitcally - beef up its own defences. Air power by the US I assume would play the deciding role. There was a not much taken note of battle in Syria where 30 US soldiers that just at the end got reinforced, were attacked by 500 Russian Wagner mercenaries and regime-loyal fighters. The battle ended with the Americans calling in heavy air support and the death of over 300 regime fighters and Wagner mercs. I red that some time ago.

I think the focus regarding Kaliningrad will shift to naval supply actions and possible sabre rattling on the seas.

Kaliningrad is heavily armed up by the Russians. Including ballistic missiles and nuclear ammunition.


I recommend googling "Suwalki gap".

Strategically, NATO must take Kaliningrad anyway. Its Europe's Cuba missile crisis. And it is a big danger to NATO.

And those Wagner mercenaries and regime-loyal fighters cried for mom over the radio they **** their pants

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Call it a hope, not knowledge. The lead of NATO'S reinforcement forces in Lithuania is in the hands of - Germany. And high ranking NATO militaries repeatedly voiced doubts that they could defend the three small Baltic states against a serious Russian attack. Its a again a question of numbers. Better NATO forces: but too few of them.

Such an attack would nto come out of the blue, but would need preparation that NATO would take note of, giving it time to - hecitcally - beef up its own defences. Air power by the US I assume would play the deciding role. There was a not much taken note of battle in Syria where 30 US soldiers that just at the end got reinforced, were attacked by 500 Russian Wagner mercenaries and regime-loyal fighters. The battle ended with the Americans calling in heavy air support and the death of over 300 regime fighters and Wagner mercs. I red that some time ago.

I think the focus regarding Kaliningrad will shift to naval supply actions and possible sabre rattling on the seas.

Kaliningrad is heavily armed up by the Russians. Including ballistic missiles and nuclear ammunition.


I recommend googling "Suwalki gap".

Strategically, NATO must take Kaliningrad anyway. Its Europe's Cuba missile crisis. And it is a big danger to NATO.

Edit
Danish soldiers were sent to Latvia with great haste to deter Putin: 'We lack everything from ammunition to underpants'

It was with quite a few days' notice that 350 Danish combat soldiers were sent to Latvia at the beginning of May. The mission was clear: Putin must be deterred. And if the Russian president attacks Latvia, the Danish soldiers must help defend the country.
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Turkey is unlikely to make a decision on the possible accession of Finland and Sweden at the NATO summit in Madrid next week. Turkey does not see the summit as a deadline, says a spokesman for Turkish President Erdoğan. Talks between the three countries will continue.

These talks are pointless. They could exclude the Scandinavians and must include the Americans. Turkey wants US military tech that Washington blocks it from. It also wants to force Washington to see it on same eye level. Washington must find thgre ats to intimidate them sufficnetly to play balls. That Turkey now gets F-35s again, is unacceptable. Modernised F-16s might be acceptable - but only in small quantity.

The other NATO states should act as if Turkey does not exist, should ignore it, and act towards the Scandinavians as if they are members.

Turkey prepares a new offensive in syria. It bullies Greece. I bullies Israel and the West over ressource fields at Cyprus. Its the state where more journalists are imprisoned than in any other country in the world (including Russia and China), at least it was like that two years ago. When will Europe finally put off the gloves and build a wall against Turkey? Let them do their thing all alone - and run into confrontation with Iran. That will keep them busy, and distracted.

And it asked to get into NATO back then because it was worried by Russia. We must demand from it to give like it was given.

[Skybird]

Russia has completely compensated losses from oil boycott by now having become China's biggest active oil suplier, even before Saudi Arabia. Trade volume for oil has gone up by 55%.



Europe is left with all the damages from sanctions.



Same for coal: Russia has completely compensated the boycott already.



From gas sales, they earn even mor emoney netto now than before the sdanctions, due to the high gas porice. They sell less gas, still, but earn bigger profits.



EU - Russia 0 : 3



Funny part is they said in recent years that if Russia does not sell these things to Europe anymore due to the EU's decarbonisation suicide policy, it would take Russia many, many years to adapt and to arrange replacement deals and build the needed infrastructure to Asia and pipelines and who knows what else. That was all just wishful thinking.



Also, the tanker market is emptied because all the tankers are leased by Russia.



Germany wanted to buy coal from Columbia. With the election result there that is i n dohbtk, the new president absolutely possiobly will oput eocnlog ybefore eocnoym and stop sellijgn ressources. Germany now has stopped to use gas for producing electricity (that took us so long...???), still absolutely rejects to frack gas from its own soil although apparently having significant reserves, still absolutely rejects to consider extending the running time of the remaining three nuclear powerplants that go off the grid end of tbnis yera, and claims that would not be possibole due to maintewnance itnevals and unavailability of nuclear fuel. Instead the minsiter for eocnomcis and save the planet grandessa wants to by frakcign gas form tohe rcoutnries at jhigher coasts, wants to buy coal, widens the mining of brown coal in germany, and totally rejects to give up his parties ideological fetish that says that all nuclear power is satanic and must be banned no matter what. He seriously recommends people to now buy water-sdaving showers and to shower and do washing less often. Says a federal minister, you have to imagine that? How more infantile will it get?



The winter will become very, very, VERY interesting. We are still on oil in my house, but we must - needleslsy, for formality - replace the heating until 2025. My parents are on district heating, for them it could become bad if they realsie the threats in Berlin to reduce gas wamring in houses to 18, soem even demand 16 degrees. For old people and ill peope, this can beocme somethign that reduces their life expectancy. From certain age on, environment temperature and mortality strongly correlate, and old people often NEED higher temperature.



Dying for a cause! Solves parts of the Corona problem, too!