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Old 05-27-22, 03:49 PM   #346
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Originally Posted by Onkel Neal View Post
Oil passing $115 and never coming back down

Oil stocks are in the money, big time. Waited 6 years for this


I wish you good timing for "realising" your profit!

Nothing worse than to go to bed with high chart markings, and learning from the breakfast radio the next morning that Elon Musk fired a tweet again during his Japan holiday and the charts have crashed rock bottom...
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Old 05-28-22, 01:42 PM   #347
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I wish you good timing for "realising" your profit!

Nothing worse than to go to bed with high chart markings, and learning from the breakfast radio the next morning that Elon Musk fired a tweet again during his Japan holiday and the charts have crashed rock bottom...
Every investors nightmare/fear but one many are prepared to gamble against....myself being one of them but only in a minor way.
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Old 05-29-22, 02:47 PM   #348
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Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
I wish you good timing for "realising" your profit!

Nothing worse than to go to bed with high chart markings, and learning from the breakfast radio the next morning that Elon Musk fired a tweet again during his Japan holiday and the charts have crashed rock bottom...
Haha, ain't that the truth!

I'm going to hold the Exxon for now, let's see how hi it can go. if it makes it to $110... I may sell.
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Old 06-09-22, 11:53 AM   #349
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Up above $104, I put in a $4.50 trailing stop so it will sell if the stock drops more than that. Hoping it will keep shooting up.
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Old 06-14-22, 08:59 AM   #350
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Well, Friday's dip triggered my sell at $101.40 so after 6 years, I am no longer an Exxon shareholder. Mixed feelings, did good on this trade with the growth and 6 years of healthy dividends but I was hoping to see $110 before selling. I still feel XOM will continue to go up as long as Putin is screwing up the world.

Oil $123 and climbing.
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Old 06-14-22, 09:39 AM   #351
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Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


Inflation expropriates savers: asset manager Flossbach advises stocks and gold.

Bert Flossbach, the co-founder of asset manager Flossbach von Storch, expects an era of inflation. However, central banks are unlikely to raise key interest rates as much as in the 1970s. To safeguard assets, he advises investors and savers to invest in stocks and gold.

Prices are falling on the stock markets - a whole potpourri of bad news is weighing on sentiment: high inflation, the ongoing Ukraine war, high energy prices, the central banks' tighter monetary policy and the Corona policy in China. Should we expect a recession?

It's a complex mix. As asset managers, we have been most concerned about the zero-covid policy in China for months. This policy is doomed to fail in the long term because there can always be new virus variants. Officially, the Chinese government talks about the economy doing well. Growth of 5.5 percent is the target for this year. That will certainly not be achieved. The Covid 19 issue in China will hang over the financial markets like a sword of Damocles for a long time to come.

Do you see the Corona policy in China as the biggest problem for the economy?

It definitely is for economic development. China is the second largest economy in the world with very strong trade links, especially with Europe. Russia is less relevant economically, only as an energy supplier. Of course, the Ukraine war has a negative impact on inflation and economic growth, but that is an issue we can and must come to terms with. Apart from that, we are very moved by the terrible suffering of the people in Ukraine! It is difficult to forecast the economy, but the trend is obviously downward.

You have said in previous interviews that you expect a new era of inflation. So do we have to prepare for a repeat of the 1970s?

In the 1970s, inflation rose massively after the oil price shock and the Yom Kippur War, and at the same time economic growth was weak. At that time, however, real interest rates were positive - that is, after deducting inflation, yields on government bonds in Germany were always greater than zero. Today, things are different; in real terms, yields are well into negative territory. And unlike back then, inflation today is not coming from commodity prices alone. Everything is getting more expensive, take food as an example. At the same time, the industrialized countries are highly indebted; in the 1970s, by contrast, government debt was much lower. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says he admires the then Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker, for ending the hyperinflationary period in the seventies by pulling up interest rates massively. Powell won't be able to repeat that on that scale.

Why not?


The huge debt is a problem for many debtors. It can only be financed in the long term if the interest burden remains reasonably bearable. That's why the Fed is taking a gradual approach and setting the market for key interest rates to rise in the direction of 3 percent. Then look further ahead for now. The hope is that inflation will fall. This is supported by the fact that commodity prices are unlikely to continue to rise so sharply. However, inflation has now been above the central banks' targets for too long - in the U.S. this has been the case for almost a year, and will soon be the case in Europe. People are starting to revise their inflation expectations significantly upwards. We see this, for example, in the demands of the trade unions in the wage negotiations in many European countries. Wages are likely to rise significantly in the second half of this year, or next year at the latest.

So a wage-price spiral will develop?

I expect wages to rise sustainably and prices to move upward as a result. The only way to dampen this is with a productivity boost. That is the only hope. So innovations are needed to significantly improve the productivity of the economy. Especially since there are other inflation drivers, the "three big Ds": decarbonization, demographics and deglobalization.

What are the consequences of these developments?

The aging of the population is leading to a structural shortage of labor - and is thus driving up wages. Added to this are deglobalization and decarbonization. Many companies are considering bringing production facilities home, or at least closer to their customers, not least because of recent experiences in China and supply chain problems. The Ukraine war also shows how dangerous it is to have large production capacities in a politically unstable country. With decarbonization, price increases are virtually part of the concept. In sum, the "three Ds" will drive up costs for companies. Companies will have to pass on those costs if they don't want to be left behind. I do not believe and hope that inflation will remain at 8 percent as a result. But it will be significantly higher than 2 percent in the medium term. The central banks' inflation target would thus be missed.

High inflation will at least partly reduce the huge mountains of debt that the industrialized countries have built up over the past decades. Doesn't that come in handy for the countries?

The highly indebted industrialized countries benefit from the development as long as the interest rate remains below the inflation rate. The financial repression in the USA, which began in the 1940s and lasted until the 1950s, serves as an example. In the U.S. at that time, government debt was reduced from 120 percent of gross domestic product to less than 70 percent. Today, debt is significantly higher in some countries, such as Japan and Italy. In the USA, too, public debt is very high. Inflation could help to reduce the debt significantly. On the other hand, monetary stability, to which central banks are actually committed, must be maintained. The question is therefore: How much interest can the world take?

The question is also: How much interest can Italy or the euro tolerate?


This is not higher mathematics. With an interest rate of 5 percent and a national debt of 150 percent, a state will have to pay 7.5 percent of its gross domestic product in interest payments if the interest rate settles at this level - not on the first day, of course, but over time. That's then potentially 30 percent of government revenues. No government can afford that in the long run. After all, we're only talking about interest payments here, not repayments. That's why it's inconceivable that interest rates will rise to levels we used to know.

So the central banks can't raise interest rates enough to curb inflation?


The central banks can only hope that some of the factors currently affecting inflation will evaporate as soon as possible, or at least weaken, and that the problem with supply bottlenecks will be resolved, for example. That would certainly help. Nevertheless, inflation will then not fall to 2 percent, but at best to 3 or 4 percent. But no one knows exactly. The ECB's inflation forecasts, accurate to a tenth of a percent and covering several years, seem all the funnier. That is an absolute presumption.

The Federal Reserve has taken the lead in raising interest rates. In the past, however, it has always backed off when the economic engine began to sputter . . .

Fed Chairman Powell, after all, has said very clearly that he is prepared to fight inflation with all his might. He deliberately mentioned the name Paul Volcker. So it's fair to assume that the Fed is serious about the story and won't get scared of its own guts anytime soon - to the point where the labor market suffers significantly. Sometime in the next six to eighteen months, it is likely to reach that point and pull back, despite inflation rates of more than 2 percent.

How will the ECB respond? After all, it can't just do nothing . . .

The ECB is in a quandary. Unlike the Fed, it makes monetary policy for many economies. It has to hold together a monetary union with countries that have different credit ratings and diverging government bond yields. There is now a yield spread of more than two percentage points between Italy and Germany. This is already a high degree of fragmentation, which the ECB has always warned against.

The Swiss National Bank is in the ECB's wake. What can it do at all?

Switzerland is closely intertwined economically with the euro zone. In this respect, it shares its economic fate to a certain extent. However, it has the advantage of having its own currency, which is also very accepted. The SNB can, so to speak, print money and buy shares without having to pull oil out of the ground, as Norway does. This is a very comfortable situation. So the SNB can buy the shares of the best companies in the world and thus make the Swiss happy with real investments. Politically, this is not a very easy situation; although there is still a long way to go before the SNB reaches the size of Blackrock as an equity investor. Printing money and buying good stocks with it - that's like a dream.

Turning to the stock markets, there are still strong fluctuations in trading, but the declines are already clear. Are prices still overvalued, or are there already good entry opportunities again?

There has been a significant valuation correction, especially in technology stocks. Smaller tech stocks, which were very hyped during the pandemic, have seen some disasters with price losses of 80 percent or even more. In the case of the large technology stocks, it can be said that the valuation benchmarks have recovered quite well. In this respect, the time to enter the market is currently better than it was a few months ago. However, the situation is also more complicated. For one thing, at the beginning of the year we did not yet have the war in Ukraine or the Covid 19 issue in China. That makes it difficult to make an assessment. I would say that the funds that you don't need in the longer term should be invested to a large extent in liquid tangible assets - i.e. equities, but also gold. Real estate is only suitable for large fortunes; for private investors, the risk of taking on a cluster risk is too great.

Stocks are tangible assets, but scientific studies show that they do not protect against inflation very well - especially if it is higher. In the 1970s, stocks were not too good an investment . . .

The big difference is that interest rates rose to double-digit levels in the 1970s. That's why stock valuations dropped significantly back then. Today, on the other hand, such interest rate levels are unthinkable. In this respect, it is difficult to compare the two.

Interest rates on the bond markets have risen significantly in recent months. Are bonds an alternative again?

Given current inflation expectations, bonds are not a sensible investment, at least not in the long term. The problem, after all, is that the situation is much starker today than it was a year ago. Even if there is a slightly higher coupon today, it is of no use because the inflation rate is also much higher. But that doesn't mean that bonds can't make sense over a shorter period of time, as a tactical investment.

Yields on corporate bonds, high-yield bonds and emerging-market bonds have risen sharply. Do you see opportunities here?

There has been a kind of sell-off recently in bonds from companies with decent credit but not so good ratings, for example in the BBB- to BB+ range, yields of 6 percent on euro paper. That's all better than the yields on government securities. However, if I had to face the idea of being invested in such a paper for the long term, I would be cautious as to whether this 6 percent over such a period of time is an appropriate reward at all. For investors, bonds are interesting again for a period of one or two years, but not in the long term. An "affair," not a "relationship."

Many private investors hold part of their portfolio in gold. Why hasn't the price of gold fared better in the face of higher inflation?

Gold is a long-term insurance policy against inflation and the risks of the financial system, both known and unknown to us - that is, against all that we hope will never occur. Gold, on the other hand, is not a short-term inflation hedge. It does not yield current income, and its price fluctuates significantly. That makes it unattractive to many investors. For us, gold is an integral part of mixed portfolios primarily because of its insurance character. In the long term, i.e. over many years, the price should compensate for the inflation trend. No more, no less.

There has been a lot of money to be made in commodities in recent months. Should private investors invest part of their money in commodities or corresponding financial products?

No. Most of the time, the cellar is not big enough (laughs). When you buy commodities via financial products, you have unpleasant experiences like a contango situation. You buy the commodity, assume that the price will go up, which it probably will, but then you're still unlucky because the futures contract you're investing in doesn't track the price increase. I don't know if it makes sense in the current environment to speculate on the prices of pork bellies, soybeans, wheat, copper and nickel - apart from ethical and moral aspects. You'll have to show me the private investor who is sustainably successful in commodity trading.

In an interview, you referred to the "fraud on the younger generation" in the area of retirement provision and said that a "Greta 2.0" is needed, i.e. a young activist à la Greta Thunberg for this area. What problems do you see here?

The under-40s, or in the strictest sense the under-30s, are at an extreme disadvantage due to demographic developments. They are being massively burdened. You can see this in the unfortunate pension policies in most industrialized countries. Governments are giving gifts to the old people who are used to win elections. This will become even more extreme in every future election period. The young, on the other hand, have to work much harder for their pensions. It's not just the iceberg that's melting here, but their future prospects.

One could also argue that, because of the scarcity, people will be more sought-after as workers in the future and will earn more accordingly. That's an advantage, isn't it?

That's the positive side, yes. Younger people don't have to worry about finding a job if they have either learned something useful or are willing to do various jobs that don't require high qualifications. However, the latter jobs are then again poorly paid. Skilled workers, on the other hand, for example in the IT sector, can choose the job, and the pay is often the same. But that still comes with very high costs - for living expenses, but also for retirement provisions and health insurance.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Old 06-14-22, 03:57 PM   #352
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My advice is dont be greedy .
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Old 06-15-22, 02:25 PM   #353
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0.75 up: US hikes interest rate in biggest rise since 1994.

Somebody at the top opf the FED feels uneasy, it seems. Not so the ECB: its "head" still dozes on. Refusal to work.
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Old 06-16-22, 09:09 AM   #354
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Wow, Exxon is tanking now, I guess my "massive" sell triggered the recession.



Could this be the start of the bubble bursting? Even oil is dropping.

Or is this just a minor correction/dip.... stay tuned!
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Old 06-16-22, 10:39 AM   #355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
0.75 up: US hikes interest rate in biggest rise since 1994.

Somebody at the top opf the FED feels uneasy, it seems. Not so the ECB: its "head" still dozes on. Refusal to work.
Meanwhile here in the UK...

UK interest rates have risen further as the Bank of England attempts to stem the pace of soaring prices.

Rates have increased from 1% to 1.25%, the fifth consecutive rise, pushing them to the highest level in 13 years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61801362
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Old 06-17-22, 11:42 AM   #356
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So glad I sold!!

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Old 06-17-22, 11:50 AM   #357
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Originally Posted by Onkel Neal View Post
Wow, Exxon is tanking now, I guess my "massive" sell triggered the recession.



Could this be the start of the bubble bursting? Even oil is dropping.

Or is this just a minor correction/dip.... stay tuned!
It is beyond correction. It is a crash.
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Old 06-17-22, 02:01 PM   #358
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@Neal: good timing, congrats

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[...]Somebody at the top of the FED feels uneasy, it seems. Not so the ECB: its "head" still dozes on. Refusal to work.
Maybe better not to wake them up, imagine what they would be able to if awake
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