"The Russian Navy is on the verge of collapse"

Oberon · 01-19-15, 09:33 AM

An interesting and eye grabbing title for sure:

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the...-1421641162548

Some valid points there, it's been readily admitted that the current Russian fleet is in the middle of a dramatic change, from ex-Soviet to modern force, but does that mean that it's on the verge of collapse?

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 12:24 PM

Well the valid points are:
- we have a problem with the fact that there were very few ships pre late 00s.
- our industry would find it difficult to build major surface combatants (ie carriers), though we were/are working on this (the new shipwright in the Far East which now faces the lack of orders b/c the northern gas/oil projects are placed on hold due to the current gas/oil prices making them unviable hence they would probably get an order from the state to build warships).
- indeed some components (namely gas turbine engines for ships) were manufactured in Ukraine (though we are working on restarting domestic production), diezel and nuclear powerplants are not affected that way (b/c they are produced domestically).

So while there are some fairly major problems, they are not unsolvable with sufficient funding. Onto the state of Russian Navy though:

The Black Sea Fleet is getting into a good shape. By 2017 we expect to have 7 kilos there (6 new, 1 from refit), 1-3 Frigates (all new), refit Slava class and various legacy ships and smaller vessels (such as the new Small Missile Ships). By 2020 it would be a decent forces with a Cruiser action group (Slava+Frigates) and a sub division.
According to this:
http://flotprom.ru/news/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=169832
article Moscow would receive S400 SAMs and so on during the refit.

The Baltic Fleet (operating in the bath tub it does) has a number of new Corvetes, which should get the job done in that theatre, as in reality those Corvetes are actually small Frigates (strike weapons, medium ranged SAMs, helicopter hangar and so on).

The Northern/Pacific fleets get the Kirovs refits (2 recently refit kirovs plus Peter the Great), Kuznetsov (which would finally get some repairs) and would have the sub component improved (refits to Akulas, Sierras and Oscars).
An interesting points is that it appears (the source is questionable, but still) that the Udaloys would also go through refit, which should give us decent escorts (in addition to Gorshkov class Frigates). The source is:
http://izvestia.ru/news/546972
It claims that Udaloys would receive new gun (the A192), S400 series SAMs, the Kalibr series strike/ASW weapons. An example of such an upgrade (drawn up by enthusiasts, may or may not reflect the real upgrade if it does happen) could be seen here:

It replaces the Kinzhal VLS units with the Redut VLS units (the the 9M96 rounds), replaces the Kinzhal radar sets with the Fort-M radar sets, the second gun is replaced with a VLS for the S400 rounds (48N6DM), the ASW missile launchers are replaced by Kalibr/Yahont ones. The mass limits were not over reached, all equipment items fit the freed space, thus such modification primarily depends on the ability of the defense industry to produce the required items.

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 12:27 PM

While those changes do not mean that the Russian Navy would dominate the seas (far from it), they do mean that it would be (most likely) viable in the mid term future.

Jimbuna · 01-19-15, 02:41 PM

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 03:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

The decrease in oil revenues do hurt the budget, but not critically so, mainly because we were trying to avoid budget deficit for a long time (and kept building up reserves).

Jimbuna · 01-19-15, 03:31 PM

So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc?

mapuc · 01-19-15, 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

ikalugin · 01-19-15, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

I would say that it is a bit of wishful thinking on their part.

01-19-15, 09:33 AM	#1
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	"The Russian Navy is on the verge of collapse" An interesting and eye grabbing title for sure: https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the...-1421641162548 Some valid points there, it's been readily admitted that the current Russian fleet is in the middle of a dramatic change, from ex-Soviet to modern force, but does that mean that it's on the verge of collapse?

01-19-15, 02:41 PM	#4
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,344 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

01-19-15, 03:31 PM	#6
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,344 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc? __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

01-19-15, 12:24 PM	#2
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	Well the valid points are: - we have a problem with the fact that there were very few ships pre late 00s. - our industry would find it difficult to build major surface combatants (ie carriers), though we were/are working on this (the new shipwright in the Far East which now faces the lack of orders b/c the northern gas/oil projects are placed on hold due to the current gas/oil prices making them unviable hence they would probably get an order from the state to build warships). - indeed some components (namely gas turbine engines for ships) were manufactured in Ukraine (though we are working on restarting domestic production), diezel and nuclear powerplants are not affected that way (b/c they are produced domestically). So while there are some fairly major problems, they are not unsolvable with sufficient funding. Onto the state of Russian Navy though: The Black Sea Fleet is getting into a good shape. By 2017 we expect to have 7 kilos there (6 new, 1 from refit), 1-3 Frigates (all new), refit Slava class and various legacy ships and smaller vessels (such as the new Small Missile Ships). By 2020 it would be a decent forces with a Cruiser action group (Slava+Frigates) and a sub division. According to this: http://flotprom.ru/news/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=169832 article Moscow would receive S400 SAMs and so on during the refit. The Baltic Fleet (operating in the bath tub it does) has a number of new Corvetes, which should get the job done in that theatre, as in reality those Corvetes are actually small Frigates (strike weapons, medium ranged SAMs, helicopter hangar and so on). The Northern/Pacific fleets get the Kirovs refits (2 recently refit kirovs plus Peter the Great), Kuznetsov (which would finally get some repairs) and would have the sub component improved (refits to Akulas, Sierras and Oscars). An interesting points is that it appears (the source is questionable, but still) that the Udaloys would also go through refit, which should give us decent escorts (in addition to Gorshkov class Frigates). The source is: http://izvestia.ru/news/546972 It claims that Udaloys would receive new gun (the A192), S400 series SAMs, the Kalibr series strike/ASW weapons. An example of such an upgrade (drawn up by enthusiasts, may or may not reflect the real upgrade if it does happen) could be seen here: It replaces the Kinzhal VLS units with the Redut VLS units (the the 9M96 rounds), replaces the Kinzhal radar sets with the Fort-M radar sets, the second gun is replaced with a VLS for the S400 rounds (48N6DM), the ASW missile launchers are replaced by Kalibr/Yahont ones. The mass limits were not over reached, all equipment items fit the freed space, thus such modification primarily depends on the ability of the defense industry to produce the required items.

01-19-15, 12:27 PM	#3
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	While those changes do not mean that the Russian Navy would dominate the seas (far from it), they do mean that it would be (most likely) viable in the mid term future.