Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Armistead

Regardless of your views on Trump, do you think this would've happened if he president or while he was in office?

Yes. Trump does not matter for him. Nor Biden or anyone else. Helping to bring Trump onto the American gameboard was just a supportive manouver, it consumes much of America's attention and distracts it and destabiliies and erodes and paralysis it in the longtrmr form within, see how the parties block each other from any useful legislation. I have given up completely to think that there were triggers or incentives involved in Putin' decision. That he attacks Ukraine I now think was pretty much inevitable, and probably since already before 2014.

Maybe even if the Ukraine were a NATO member.

[mapuc]

Looks like they have attacked this 64 km long military column.

Just read it in a Danish article who quoted Pentagon for saying that some bridge(s) had been destroyed and probably several vehicle been destroyed.

So this according to Pentagon should be the reason for their stand still Ukrainian effectiveness.

Markus

[nikimcbee]

Here's a good video of a small slice of the Ukrainian War:





For what it's worth the Soviets/Russians don't have a lot of actual, modern air operations experience. They tons air defense experience. The US has Vietnam War, Gulf War 1991, Iraq War 2.0 (?) Plus, if they (Russians) have been hard up for money, they won't have the money to train like the West has. It would make sense, they are having a rough go at it now. Unless, they are saving the varsity team for a NATO conflict, but who knows?

[Catfish]

^ hah just watched that, before coming back here again and saw it posted.
Good take.

[mapuc]

Russia having huge problems in fighting the Ukrainian army tells me that if there's a war between NATO and Russia, Russia would have a heck of a problem.

Russia know this, that's why they would go nuclear directly in a confrontation.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Russia having huge problems in fighting the Ukrainian army tells me that if there's a war between NATO and Russia, Russia would have a heck of a problem. Russia know this, that's why they would go nuclear directly in a confrontation. Markus

^ Or would they? Putin is a liar.
1. Putin does not care, he's old
2. Generals and FSB might care
Maybe someone gets ousted, just depends on how many doomsday trunks are needed to push that button. I heard there were 3 now reduced to 2.

B.t.w. Putin propaganda telling it does not target civilian habitats, just look at photos and videos.
Though it might appear that most of russians support Putin. Then i'd ask who asks them, who does the statistics?
Clear as mud

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ Or would they?
1. Putin does not care, he's old
2. Generals and FSB might care
Maybe someone gets ousted, just depends on how many doomsday trunks are needed to push that button. I heard there were 3 now reduced to 2.

I based my comment on what I have been told throughout the 80'ies from Russian generals who have said things like.

A war with NATO will end in a nuclear war.
And
In the Russian war doctrine nuclear weapon shall be used in first phase of the war(here I'm uncertain, trying to remember what this former soviet politician said on Swedish tv-A documentary)

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Russia having huge problems in fighting the Ukrainian army tells me that if there's a war between NATO and Russia, Russia would have a heck of a problem.

Russia know this, that's why they would go nuclear directly in a confrontation.

Markus

What if the confrontation is a Russian attack into Finland or the NATO Baltic nations? You think Russia would go nuclear directly in that scenario?

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I based my comment on what I have been told throughout the 80'ies from Russian generals who have said things like.
A war with NATO will end in a nuclear war.
And
In the Russian war doctrine nuclear weapon shall be used in first phase of the war(here I'm uncertain, trying to remember what this former soviet politician said on Swedish tv-A documentary) Markus

1st yes. Those were the 80ies.
2nd it depends on who starts the war. In this case everyone knows it is Russia. They can change their maskirovka as much as they want, only believers of their broadcasts within Russia will believe it, since they are taken off the global information system.
Most of the world would already be in favour of an outright attack against Russia now, for Russia it would be hard to justify a nuclear war after all the world (sans Russia) clearly sees what is going on.

I really see Putin in a bunker now, giving his last commands. Please lets fast-forward to this and spare the intermediate bullsh!t.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by August

What if the confrontation is a Russian attack into Finland or the NATO Baltic nations? You think Russia would go nuclear directly in that scenario?

I don't know to be honest. I have only heard and read about the Russian war doctrine throughout the 80'ies.

I also remember what an American General said-I can't say when in the war with Russia nukes will be used, only that it will there's no doubt.

I can have remembered things wrong.

Edit
This is copied from twitter
Reports of a significant armor engagement in a suburb of Kyiv, …between Russian forces. Friendly fire restulted in the loss of 9 tanks and 4 infantry fighting vehicles.
End edit

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by August

What if the confrontation is a Russian attack into Finland or the NATO Baltic nations? You think Russia would go nuclear directly in that scenario?

Good question. In the past it was russian strategy to saw off small parts off Finland decade for decade "legally", but this stopped after 1990.
Now? I think not nuclear. Him believing the west will be too frightened to use the bomb to stop them, if they attack conventionally. Now it is your guess what you think will stop him.

Remember two days ago four russian jets violated swedish airspace, some weeks ago there was at least one russian plane skimming and detecting swedish, finnish and baltic states radar installations, deviating 'a bit' from its (THEIR) official flight path(s).

Putin will not stop with the Ukraine. Or maybe for a year if we let him.
I got quite a bit of 'education' in firing 'rifles', I'd say if there is some russian with courage all it takes is to come close to 700 meter to Putin, and the war will end.

[mapuc]

I dearly hope you are correct Catfish

There will not be any use of nuke in a confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Then I hope it will not come so far

Edit
Found the the Russian military doctrine of 2014.
https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029
End edit

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

[...] Found the the Russian military doctrine of 2014. https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029 [...] Markus

First paragraph already:
"1. The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (hereinafter the Military Doctrine) represents a system of officially adopted by the State views on preparations for armed defense and on the armed defense of the Russian Federation."

So.. going out and attack other countries for defense?

So they either ignore their own doctrine, or it must be a special russian view to see things.
I am sure Schroeder or Trump could explain this to us.
Until then I would propose to go and f'k yourself, Lavrov. To quote yourself, who are you to teach others?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

First paragraph already:
"1. The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation (hereinafter the Military Doctrine) represents a system of officially adopted by the State views on preparations for armed defense and on the armed defense of the Russian Federation."

So.. going out and attack other countries for defense?

So they either ignore their own doctrine, or it must be a special russian view to see things.
I am sure Schroeder or Trump could explain this to us.
Until then I would propose to go and f'k yourself, Lavrov. To quote yourself, who are you to teach others?

Isn't there a saying
Best defence is going offensive ?

I made a search for the word nuclear in the test and found this

20. Prevention of a nuclear military conflict as well as of any other military conflict is the basis of the military policy of the Russian Federation.

The decision to use nuclear weapons shall be taken by the President of the Russian Federation.

Markus

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

This song seems oddly relevant now for some reason...