Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

They have plentiful quantities of chemical weapons and tactical nukes which they may well decide to use should matters begin to look bleak at home and on the battlefield.

Lets pray Putin has so much sense of humanity that he isn't even thinking on using these weapon.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Amen

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

They have plentiful quantities of chemical weapons and tactical nukes which they may well decide to use should matters begin to look bleak at home and on the battlefield.

I do not see Putin explain the use of chemical weapons and tactical nukes on Russians, his main goal in this war to remake Ukraine Russia again and will he dare to isolate himself that bigger partners will oust him I hope not.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia has a global economy so heavily depended on other countries there will be no starvation, but production is halted. Sanctions against the Putin regime have prevented the Russian military from obtaining chips from Taiwanese global market leader TSMC, as well as other advanced semiconductors. Tank manufacturer UralVagonZavod even sent its workers on leave recently - in the middle of a war - because it ran out of chips for armored vehicles all other military production have same kind of problems. You can state oh they have piles of old ammunition, but that did not win this war for them wars are not won by artillery only and in case of the Russians it will not either like we have seen in the last couple of months. PutinÂ’s assumption that he can win the long game is yet another Russian miscalculation, they exhausted themselves in offensives against defensive lines that Ukraine held Russia can not rearm their forces in Ukraine with the needed good trained personnel and high-tech material a risky offensive is not the proper course to victory.

Main cause of the USSR fall was it could not produce enough anymore the production system had collapsed, not saying Russia will collapse now, but it is struggling the authoritarian system has to explain that authoritarian systems do not exist on its own it needs the elite of Moscow and St Petersburg to survive.

I cannot follow you in this totality. What yoiu say, in lesser doses has been said baout russia since years, I do not know since how many years these things are beign said about Russia. And yet it is still there, and a bigger nuisance than before. Nobody plans to invade Russia or to threaten them directly, chip shortages will not be the argument to declare their military dead. They are autark in their basic needs, and such a nation cannot be economically sanctioned into obeidnece or submission, even less so when you depend as heavily on them as Europe depends on Russian imports of ores, gas (and not just for energy), energy. They import luxury goods and high tech from us - but we import profound industrial commodities and basic ores and energy from them - who needs who more here, eh? What easier to pass on: luxury, or essential, indispensable commodities? You maybe think the3 depend more on us than we on them, or you think the dependency is mutual and equally distributed. That is wrong. If the going gets desperate ands the break becomes irreversible (it probably, I even say: hopefully, is irreversible), they can go on without our exports to them longer then we can run without their exports to us.

Its not about only Putin, why are people so fixiated with him alone? Who said his successor will be not even worse than he is? The oligarchs are not the grey eminence of the Russian state, Putin fought them down very explicitly in the early years of his presidency and executed several precedence examples as warnings, to hammer that lesson home: make your gains and play your games, but if you get into the state's and my (Putin'S way) this my state will turn mercilessly against you. He has installed not the military buit the secret service as the guarantor iof his power in this state. The oligarchs may or may not do corrupt business with the military (obviously they do), but with the FSB?
Putin is a trenchcoat man, not a uniform man. His guard is not nbthe military, but the secret servic eand intle community. To give it the correct name: KGB.

On our own survivability I see no big problems we have solved crisis bigger than this and with the global partnership we cope I see no ending of times.

I strictly disagree here, we are in what is the worst and biggest social and economical crisis since WW and the biggest military crisis since Cuba. And Cuba was something where Europe has had no word in, so one could say it is the biggest military crisis since WW2 again.

And lets not forget, Russia is not isolated. China and India, Brasil, South Africa and several others more refuse to condem,n them, do bsuiness with them, even NATO member Turkey. The so-called West's position in this confrontation is not that of the global majority. And we currently see the strongest anti-West coalition being formed that there ever has been since WW2. We are in the weaker position. Ifd this coaltioiin decides to break with the West and ntoaccepot a world order any longer that was formed by the West and by Western rules, then we wiull look very silly. The russian financial status and gold reserves look not relevant as long as they stick to global sysstem rules defined by the west, but when this coalition of the willing is deciding to no longer play by Wetsenr global ruzles, then we will look very silly while Russia suddenly is the rich man in the room.It were diplomatic defeatsd for Wahsington andEuroope that both India and Southg Africa refused to follow calls by the West to join the anti-Russian position. Especially India, the pharmaceutical powerhouse of the world and soon the country with the biggest population in the world and a rising power economy.

It all comes together, and it all is against us. You see, I have no idea how this cirsi8s will end and whetehr or not Russia wins the war. But I refuse to fall for a daydream of that in the loongterm all will be good and Russia will lose anyway. They cna keep the war simmering FOR YEARS TO COME, slowly destroying the ukrainian cities and infrastrruicture and producitron during that time. I do not say they WILL win, but some in the West seem tio think that in the end they will end, this way or the other. Sorry, right now I can not see them loosing decisevly, an they can stil, always unpack the rla big clubs that they so far have no used, just threatened to use. If its worth it for the kremlin, for whatever their motives are, they can sustain this war for a way too long time as if Europe can cope with that. They can also decide to pay the price and simply wipe the ukraine out, with welcomed side-effects for Europe.



I am convinced that this game for time is part of Putin's calculation. Time is working for him, and he knows it.



Lets hope I am wrong.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/27/p...are/index.html

[mapuc]

Russia has almost run out of high-precision weapons, and there are no reserves of some types of rockets. In particular, there are not enough Kalibr, Iskander and Kinzhal missiles left.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/27/7365019/

Markus

[Skybird]

Three possible putcomes and endings of the war:
https://abcnews.go.com/International...ry?id=88210112

Russia holds ground in Donbas, Ukraine relinquishes territory

In a "best-case scenario" for Russia, its troops will continue to gain incrementally in the Donbas and hold their ground against Ukrainian forces, Ganyard said. If Ukraine doesn't have the arsenal to push back or can't hold out amid a downhill economy, that could put them in a position to sue for peace, he said.
"Where the Russians are pushing in from the east toward the west, that is the bread basket of Ukraine," Ganyard said. "That is where not only most of the industry is, but it's where most of the agriculture, very rich agricultural area, all of that gets transported down the Dnipro River.
"If Russia would be able to hang on to that, it would almost cut Ukraine in half, and certainly cut the Ukrainian economy by more than half," he continued.

Ukraine regains territory in the Donbas, Russia cuts its losses

If Ukraine manages to recapture some of the territory in the Donbas claimed by Russian forces since the invasion started, that could pressure Putin to end the invasion to stave off further embarrassment, Ganyard said.
"If he began to lose, if he began to take even heavier losses, if the Ukrainians were able to recapture parts of Ukraine that the Russians have taken, at some point Putin may decide to cut his losses and declare victory and take whatever's left on the table in terms of the territory that he's taken thus far," Ganyard said.


Ukraine regains territory in the Donbas, Russia escalates

Alternately, Putin may push back against the political embarrassment of losing territory it had gained since the start of the invasion, Ganyard said.
"The more gains that the Ukrainians make, it's actually going to make the whole situation more dangerous because Putin may react in a way that escalates to de-escalate," Ganyard said. "We've heard that term in the past, and usually that refers to the use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons.
"The danger here is if the Ukrainians continue to do better, what does Putin do to save himself to save his beloved, domestic political position?" he continued. "Does he do something that would shock the whole world and try to scare the Ukrainians into an early surrender?

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/27/7365019/

Markus

They run out of rapiers? They could take the twohanders and morning stars instead. Much more collateral damage.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

They run out of rapiers? They could take the twohanders and morning stars instead. Much more collateral damage.

Depends. I hear boots on the ground especially from Kazakhstan are becoming rare. Maybe they can send drones fighting with two-handers, but drones also aren't Russia's forte

Really, this is so ridiculous. Does anyone out of Russia believe that the "Donbas" wanted to join Russia? Maybe not even believed in Russia.

[Skybird]

Numbers, numbers, whatever they may be worth...


https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html

[Catfish]

So true.

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/stat...89232420622337

[Jimbuna]

Russia's plan to expand its armed forces is unlikely to have an impact on the Ukraine war, the UK's Ministry of Defence has said.

Vladimir Putin recently signed a decree to increase the Russian armed forces' military personnel to more than 1.15m - a potential increase of 137,000.

But the MoD said the boost was unlikely to increase Russia's combat power - partly because of ongoing losses.

President Putin's decree came amid a military recruitment drive.

There have been reports that recruiters have even been visiting prisons, promising inmates freedom and money.

Currently, Russia has a limit of just over a million military personnel, plus almost 900,000 civilian staff.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62705001

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

They run out of rapiers? They could take the twohanders and morning stars instead. Much more collateral damage.

...and here is what they are using their advanced missile system to

The Kh-59 high-precision air-to-surface missile has been used by the Russian military to destroy a public toilet located on the outskirts of Novovorontsovka, Kherson Region.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...on-region.html



Markus

[Reece]

and what a crappy job they done of it too!!

[mapuc]

Danish DR-News writes

The President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, signed a decree yesterday that will give Ukrainians an economic benefit if they come to Russia.
This is written by Reuters.If you leave Ukrainian territory in favor of Russia, you can therefore collect 10,000 rubles a month from the Russian state.

Markus