Nuclear Iran

[Jimbuna]

German Frigate Neutralizes Houthi Missile Threat in Red Sea Mission

Operating in the Red Sea as part of an EU mission, the German frigate "Hessen" neutralized a missile fired by Houthi rebels towards a commercial ship, reported the German news agency DPA, citing British military sources.

The target of the Houthi rebels' missile attack was a commercial ship located in the Red Sea about 111 kilometres southwest of the Yemeni port of Hodeida.

Thanks to the actions taken by the German frigate "Hessen", one of the fired missiles was neutralized, while the other missed the target. The commercial ship was not damaged and is safely continuing its journey to the destination port.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...194cfbaa&ei=12

[Otto Harkaman]

What do the Houthi gain from the Red Sea conflict?

The Houthi movement derives several gains from their involvement in the Red Sea conflict:

1. Popular Support in Yemen:
   • By firing missiles at Israel or Israeli targets in the Red Sea, the Houthis earn popular support within Yemen.
   • This support helps them consolidate their authority, which originated from their 2015 coup against the Yemeni government1.
2. Political Leverage on the Global Stage:
   • Beyond the Middle East, the Houthis have secured political gains globally.
   • They recently reached an agreement with Russia and China to guarantee safe passage for Russian and Chinese shipping.
   • In return, these countries offer increased political support for the Houthi cause on the world stage2.
3. Demonstrating Military Capability:
   • The Houthis’ ability to employ Iranian weapons to interfere with and potentially shut down shipping in the Red Sea showcases their military capability.
   • This demonstration serves as a strategic message to regional and international actors.
   • Despite years of Saudi and Emirati airstrikes, the Houthis have maintained their behavior and territorial control3.

In summary, the Houthis gain both domestic and international advantages through their actions in the Red Sea, positioning themselves as a significant player in regional and global affairs.

[Otto Harkaman]

How has the Red Sea conflict affected regional trade and shipping routes?

The Red Sea conflict has significantly impacted regional trade and shipping routes. Let’s explore the consequences:

1. Disruptions to Global Commerce:
   • The Red Sea is a vital waterway for international trade, connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean Sea.
   • Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have caused major disruptions to commercial shipping.
   • These disruptions threaten a key maritime route essential for a significant share of global container traffic and over $1 trillion in annual merchandise1.
2. Immediate Contraction in Market Capacity:
   • Since November 2023, the Houthi group has targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea, leading to over 33 attacks.
   • In response, the US and EU have spearheaded Operations Prosperity Guardian and Aspis to safeguard navigation and trade flows.
   • However, challenges persist due to the Houthis’ deployment of drones, missiles, and vessel tracking capabilities.
   • As a result, there has been an immediate contraction in market capacity and a surge in shipping rates1.
3. Rerouting and Increased Costs:
   • Avoiding the Red Sea means abandoning one of the most common global shipping routes from Asia to Europe.
   • Approximately 40% of Asia-Europe trade normally transits the Red Sea.
   • Ships that shun the Red Sea must instead sail around the Horn of Africa, which can cost $1 million more round trip in additional fuel costs2.
4. Surge in Shipping Rates:
   • The Suez Canal, which handles about 30% of global container trade, has seen disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis.
   • Shipping costs have increased significantly, causing prices on some routes—particularly from Asia to Europe—to surge nearly five-fold.
   • This impacts global trade networks and economic stability3.

In summary, the Red Sea conflict has disrupted trade, increased shipping costs, and forced companies to reroute their vessels, affecting supply chains and global commerce123.

[Jimbuna]

US May Revoke Houthi Terrorist Label If They Stop Red Sea Ship Attacks

The US said it would consider revoking its recent designation of Yemen's Houthis as terrorists if the Iran-backed militants cease their shipping attacks in and around the Red Sea.
"My hope is that we can find diplomatic off-ramps," Tim Lenderking, President Joe Biden's special envoy for Yemen, told reporters in an online press briefing on Wednesday. "To find ways to deescalate and allow us to pull back, eventually, the designation and of course to end the military strikes on Houthis' military capability."

The comments suggest Washington is once more leaning on diplomacy after a nearly three-month-long campaign of airstrikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen. Those have failed to stop the group's missile and drone attacks against merchant vessels and warships, though the US says it has managed to degrade the Houthis' military capabilities.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-m...ttacks-5396896

[Jimbuna]

US says sent Iranian arms, ammo bound for Houthis to Ukraine

The United States has given Ukraine small arms and ammunition that were seized while being transferred from Iranian forces to the Houthis in Yemen, the US military said Tuesday.

The transfer last week came as Ukraine suffers from significant shortages of ammunition and US Republican lawmakers block new aid, but it does not address Kyiv’s need for key items such as artillery and air defense munitions.

“The US government transferred over 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s and over 500,000 rounds of 7.62mm ammunition to the Ukrainian armed forces” on Thursday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said on social media.

“These weapons will help Ukraine defend against Russia’s invasion” and are enough material to equip a brigade, it said.

The arms and ammunition were seized between May 2021 and February 2023 from four “stateless vessels” as they were being transferred from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to the Houthis in Yemen, CENTCOM said.

The Houthis have been targeting ships in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea since November 2023 in attacks they say are in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza - a major international security challenge that threatens a major shipping lane.

“Iran’s support for armed groups threatens international and regional security, our forces, diplomatic personnel, and citizens in the region, as well as those of our partners. We will continue to do whatever we can to shed light on and stop Iran’s destabilizing activities,” CENTCOM said.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/w...is-to-ukraine-

[Jimbuna]

Israel threatens to strike Iran directly if Iran launches attack from its territory

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s foreign minister threatened Wednesday that his country’s forces would strike Iran directly if the Islamic Republic launched an attack from its territory against Israel.

His comments came amid heightened tensions between the rival powers following the killings of Iranian generals in a blast at the Iranian consulate in Syria earlier this month.

“If Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran,” Israel Katz said in a post on X in both Farsi and Hebrew.

Earlier Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated a promise to retaliate against Israel over the attack on its consulate in Damascus.

Tehran holds Israel responsible for the strike that leveled the building, killing 12 people. Israel has not acknowledged its involvement, though it has been bracing for an Iranian response to the attack, a significant escalation in their long-running shadow war.

The strike killed Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior figure in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard who led the group’s elite Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016. The 11 others who died included six Revolutionary Guard members, four Syrians and a Hezbollah militia member.

Israel has attacked scores of Iranian-linked targets in Syria over the years with the apparent intent of disrupting arms transfers and other cooperation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran. The Israeli army rarely comments on these attacks. Since the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza began six months ago, there have been near-daily exchanges of fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Gaza’s Hamas rulers, who triggered the war by attacking southern Israel on Oct. 7, are also backed by Iran. Tehran also backs an umbrella group of Iraqi militias targeting U.S. military bases and positions in Syria and Iraq, known as The Islamic Resistance of Iraq.

Khamenei made the remarks at a prayer ceremony celebrating the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, saying the strike on its consular was akin to an attack on Iranian territory.

“When they attacked our consulate area, it was like they attacked our territory,” Khamenei said, in remarks broadcast by Iranian state TV. “The evil regime must be punished, and it will be punished.”

Neither Katz nor the Ayatollah elaborated on the way they would retaliate.

Khamenei also criticized the West, particularly the U.S. and Britain, for supporting Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza.

“It was expected they (would) prevent (Israel) in this disaster. They did not. They did not fulfil their duties, the Western governments,” he said.

Iran does not recognize Israel.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-isra...dc88731063fa71

[Reece]

Can't someone accidentally nuke Iran??

[Jimbuna]

WW3 fears as Iran to launch 'high-precision missile' attack on Israel in DAYS, US intelligence warns

A major Iranian attack using high-precision missiles and drones could strike Israel within days, according to US intelligence.

Prominent Israeli military and government figures could be in the crosshairs as US and Israeli intelligence suggests strikes by Iran and its proxies are imminent, an anonymous source familiar with the intelligence told Bloomberg.

The potential attack may happen in the coming days, they said. US officials reportedly gave Israel the warning as it helps the country plan and share intelligence assessments. The US and Israeli reports came to a chilling conclusion: it’s more a case of when they strike, not if, with the potential to significantly broaden the conflict as fighting surpasses six months.

Tehran has been threatening retaliation since Israel’s April 1 precision missile attacks which killed two top Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) generals and five officers near the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. It included Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the leader of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowed that Israel “will be punished” for its “mistake” of bombing the consulate building. He slammed the “evil regime” in an address during Eid al-Fitr prayers in Tehran, which marks the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

Israeli government and military facilities may be targeted but civilian facilities will be spared, Israel’s Western allies said. Israel has told allies it is waiting for this attack to take place before launching another ground offensive against Hamas in Rafah in Gaza. It is not clear how soon that operation may begin.

Intelligence indicates an attack from Iran and its proxies might come from Israel’s north, where militant group Hezbollah, Tehran’s ally, based in Lebanon is currently located. If Iran hits Israeli soil, Israel will hit Iranian soil, they’ve publicly threatened.

"If Iran attacks from its own territory, Israel will respond and attack in Iran," Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, said in a post on X on Wednesday. Contingency and evacuation plans are reportedly in the works following requests from Israeli authorities about emergency supplies and satellite phones, the intelligence official said.

While US officials slammed a potential ground offensive in Rafah and pushed for an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, president Joe Biden says America's commitment to Israel's security is "ironclad" as the threat from Iran and its proxies loom.

“We also want to address the Iranian threat to launch a significant – they’re threatening to launch a significant attack in Israel,” Biden said at a press conference in Washington on Wednesday. “As I told Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad. Let me say it again, ironclad – all we can to protect Israel’s security.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...21decee5&ei=20

[Jimbuna]

Argentine court blames Iran and Hezbollah for deadly 1994 Jewish center bombing

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) — Argentina’s highest criminal court reported a new development Thursday in the elusive quest for justice in the deadliest attack in the country’s history — the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center headquarters — concluding Iran had planned the attack and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group had executed the plans.

In a ruling obtained by The Associated Press, Argentina’s Court of Cassation deemed Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, responsible for the bombing in Buenos Aires that leveled the community center, killing 85 people, wounding 300 and devastating Latin America’s biggest Jewish community. The court said the attack came in retaliation for Argentina reneging on a nuclear cooperation deal with Tehran.

Alleging Iran’s “political and strategic” role in the bombing, the Argentine court paved the way for victims’ families to bring lawsuits against the Islamic Republic. In the past three decades, Iran has not turned over citizens convicted in Argentina. Interpol arrest warrants have led nowhere.

“The significance of these grave human rights violations for the international community as a whole invokes a state’s duty to provide judicial protection,” the ruling said, declaring the bombing of the Argentine Jewish Mutual Aid Association community center a “crime against humanity.”

The court decision came as no shock. Argentina’s judiciary has long maintained Iran was behind the attack, chilling relations between the countries — particularly after the collapse of a joint investigation. Iran has denied involvement. A spokesperson for Hezbollah, Israel’s archenemy on its northern border, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

What some said they found shocking, rather, was the court’s failure to provide concrete evidence of Iran’s direct involvement or shed new light on the case after 30 years of setbacks and scandals.

“I would never rule Iran out, it’s certainly on the list of suspects, but let’s do something specific to rule it in,” said Joe Goldman, who co-authored a book about the winding investigations into the Jewish community center attack as well as bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires that killed more than 20 people in 1992. “That would be a serious investigation that we haven’t seen.”
https://apnews.com/article/argentina...8f28477589a444

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

WW3 fears as Iran to launch 'high-precision missile' attack on Israel in DAYS, US intelligence warns

I wonder if the democrat cartel would get us into a war with Iran just to get the boost in popularity that wartime presidents have historically had in the past?

I hope they realize that fighting a war using people who don't even want to keep score while playing Scrabble might not be a great idea.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by em2nought

I wonder if the democrat cartel would get us into a war with Iran just to get the boost in popularity that wartime presidents have historically had in the past?

I hope they realize that fighting a war using people who don't even want to keep score while playing Scrabble might not be a great idea.

Nothing would surprise me where any politician or political party was involved.

[Jimbuna]

U.S. moves forces in the Middle East to prepare for 'imminent' Iranian strike on Israel: Pentagon sends aircraft carrier that can intercept missiles to the Red Sea in warning to Tehran

The U.S. has moved more forces in the Middle East to prepare for what officials believe could be an 'imminent' strike by Iran on Israel.

The Pentagon is beefing up its presence in the region and the USS Dwight Eisenhower has been sent into the Red Sea in a warning to Tehran and to protect American personnel should the violence spill over, multiple reports suggest.

U.S. officials fear that hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles could be used in a retaliation for an April 1 strike on a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria.

The USS Dwight Eisenhower could and would be able to intercept missiles and drones fired by Iran.

The White House on Friday wouldn't go as far as to say that an attack was 'imminent,' instead calling the threat 'viable.'

'We still deem the potential threat by Iran here to be real, to be viable, certainly credible and we're watching it as closely as we can,' White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Friday on a Zoom call.

Kirby added that the U.S. was in 'constant communication with our Israeli counterparts about making sure that they can defend themselves against those kind of attacks.'

The NSC spokesperson gave no details on the potential timing of such an attack.

'I really don't want to get into armchair quarterbacking this thing in a public way in terms of the conversations we're having or what we're seeing in the intelligence picture,' Kirby said.

On Thursday, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem did not explicitly mention Iran but issued a warning to government workers.

'Out of an abundance of caution, U.S. government employees and their family members are restricted from personal travel outside the greater Tel Aviv, … Jerusalem, and Be’er Sheva areas until further notice,' the security alert read.

The April 1 attack in Damascus killed two senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and five other officers, Iran said.

The Washington Post reported Thursday that senior Pentagon officials were frustrated that the U.S. did not get a heads up from Israel before conducting an airstrike on the Iranian site.

Three unnamed U.S. officials told the paper said Defense Secretary Lloyd Ausin and other senior defense officials believed Israel should have informed the Pentagon ahead of the attack because of the strike's implications for U.S. servicemembers in the region.

Had the U.S. gotten a heads up, the Pentagon would have been able to heighten defense capabilities in order to withstand Iranian retaliation, the sources said.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...26029ce7&ei=19

[Otto Harkaman]

[mapuc]

Something tells me that Iran wouldn't attack Israel, instead they will attack Israeli interest in the middle east.

For once I hope I'm right.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Iran downplays war rhetoric leaving US intelligence to warn of attacks on Israel

If Iran is on the brink of war with Israel, and possibly the US, astonishingly little is being done by the regime to prepare its people for the coming struggle. That may be because Iran does not want an all-out conflict.

Even Iranian reporters have noticed the silence and how the rhetoric of imminent war is largely being stoked by US intelligence officials in Washington. One Iranian reformist newspaper had five reports on a possible imminent attack on Israel, including predictions of hundreds of cruise missiles raining down on Israel, entirely based on US news outlets such as CBS, CNN, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times.

US intelligence was entirely correct before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and if it is again today, the least that can be said is that Iran is simply not joining the war of narratives. The sabre-rattling has by Iranian standards been low key.
That may be because Tehran does not want to give any clue to its plans, but that comes with domestic risks, even in such an authoritarian society.

The seizure of an Israeli-owned container ship, the MSC Aries in the strait of Hormuz on Saturday, is important in that it strengthens a trade blockade against Israel. But the action as yet does not match the barrage of missiles the US media had been predicting.

Similarly, Iran is downplaying multiple instructions to foreign citizens to leave either Iran or Israel, and reports that embassies such as the Dutch embassy in Tehran is to close are being denied

The lead item on the Iranian Students news agency on Saturday morning was about a clampdown on bad driving, and many of the Tehran Friday prayers eschewed attacks on the US in favour of religious themes or urging the police to go ahead on Saturday with the plan to fully enforce the compulsory hijab on Iranian women in the streets of Tehran.

Speculation about Iran’s wrestling contestants for the Paris Olympics occupies space. Apart from that, the continued slide in the Iranian rial and how it fuels poverty and inflation animates public debate.

The relative air of normality in Tehran struck some dissident commentators such as the political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi. He said the US media and some in the Iranian government seemed involved in a collective countdown to war, but all the official news channels continued as normal. In the streets of springtime Tehran, he said: “The possibility of war was not the concern for the people who crowded around the water to watch the dancing fountains! It’s as if they usually don’t follow the news related to mutual threats between Iran and Israel or don’t take them seriously!

“The few people who were interested in talking about it believed that at most something like the attack on the American base in al-Asad would happen [the Iraqi airbase housing US troops that was attacked after the killing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps chief Qassem Suleimani]. As a result no serious US reaction would follow. My suggestion that repeating that kind of ‘reprisal’ this time may not be acceptable to the hardline supporters of the government and make things worse in terms of dignity – they considered it unimportant!”

The low-key approach may be because the Iranian regime does not want to stir an atmosphere of fear. Equally, leaving the enemy guessing, while the Israeli public listen out for air raid warnings is a small victory in itself.

But it seems more likely the muted propaganda reflects the regime’s desire to contain its reprisal for the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus so the conflict does not subsequently spiral out of control. A population whipped up into war fever will hardly help dampen popular demand for more conflict.

Voices that doubt the war’s wisdom are being allowed a hearing on social media. Nosratollah Tajik, a former Iranian ambassador in Jordan, said: “The goals of those interested in expanding the war are clear, but the government and analysts should not exaggerate the attack on the consulate, which is not Iran’s territory! Israel has already invaded and carried out operations on Iranian soil. Iran’s current interests do not lie in expanding the war in the Middle East. It is a fatal miscalculation.”

Mohsen Abdollahi, a Tehran university professor, warned any expansion of Iran’s attack, and especially the threat of one on civilian areas, will completely change the situation against the Iranian government and will mobilise the existing global consensus against Israel against us.

Other dissidents said Iran’s theory of fighting war outside Iran’s walls and fighting through proxies has ended.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...79f27270&ei=34