Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

I know States can not go bankrupt, but this all has an effect on Russian economy what was not so great the latest years the Russian people will get affected by this and the opinion on Putin gone change because of this.

"So what...?"


The economy (productivity and product attractiveness) of Russia never was great. The people always lived in low standards, and get treated by the state like dirt. Putin does not care what the West thinks about him. And in case he gets replaced, it will be another dirtbag taking his seat and plundering the country and raping his neighbouring countries.


Nothing new in the Russian theatre. Everything normal and as it always has been.


The Kremlin-loyal elites - they will know how to nevertheless live in luxury, sanctions yes or no.



All what you say, affects the ordinary people. And the ordinary people do not count in Russia. Never did.

[mapuc]

A lot of war crime has been committed today-Where many civilians in Ukraine has lost their life-And there's nothing we can do about it.

We may be lucky catching a couple of the Russians officer after the war.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

"So what...?"


The economy (productivity and product attractiveness) of Russia never was great. The people always lived in low standards, and get treated by the state like dirt. Putin does not care what the West thinks about him. And in case he gets replaced, it will be another dirtbag taking his seat and plundering the country and raping his neighbouring countries.


Nothing new in the Russian theatre. Everything normal and as it always has been.


The Kremlin-loyal elites - they will know how to nevertheless live in luxury, sanctions yes or no.



All what you say, affects the ordinary people. And the ordinary people do not count in Russia. Never did.

Ordinary people in Russia caused the breakdown of the USSR.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ordinary people in Russia caused the breakdown of the USSR.

No. It was the state of an economy that even by the queer Russian standards over decades had been degenerated and got overloaded by the costs of the arms race during the cold war, so that it collapsed. Or as some in the US say: Reagan arms-raced them to death.



The Russia today I see far from being that vulnerable to inner collapse. The Russian state fonds grew last month by additonal 40 bn more from oil and gas deals to a total of over 200 bn. Give and take some, thats a rise by one quarter in one month.



I currently do not see signs of Russia "economically collapsing". They have overcompensated losses from gas and oil trade suspended by the West. The sell to others, faster than the Western analysts expected they could, at lower prices than before - but in bigger quantities that overcompensate for the lower price.



The central bank buys more gold than in the months before the war.

I bet they even find weasel ways around West-delivered industrial and traffic equipment being threatened by sanctions to become unmaintainable. They will find alternatives. Either for suppliers of the needed items, or by replace the Western technology.



The sanction bomb, as the West hoped it would become one, to me more and more looks like a monumental DUD. If ot goes off, than not during this war, but afterwards. Sanctions will not do anything to shorten the war. Heck, even the US is watering them down at will if they see it in their national interest (Russian tankers still can be insured despite sanctions so that they can fight high gasoline prices in the US by still delivering some more oil.) And Biden wants to prhibit the buying of Russian gold? Well, currently the Russian central bank buys all gold that it can get. And different to Dollars and Euros, that is real money. Add that advantage to the low debt rate in Russia. Compare to that in the US...


Defaulting or not, Russia will stay able to do business deals it needs - last but not least because the Western position on the ukraine is a minority position. The time when the G7 represented the lions share of the global economy, are over. Today its below 30% and is closer to around just one quarter - declining further from year to year.



As much as we have overestimated Ruissia' military capability, we sitll underestimate its economic-financial resilience.



India I predict to stay opportunistic, it will not allow to get misappropriated (? =vereinnahmt) by the West. Chiona turned pro-Russia again, after hopes it would drop Putin. Apparently it does not. And the BRICS states' ties have not eroded, as was hoped, but strengthend since the founding. What is not yet, can still become. But I'm not exactly waiting for it.

[ET2SN]

I found some deep thinking for you all to enjoy.
My one disclaimer is that its from a US-centric think tank. Its good info, IMO, but you should understand where its coming from.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by FUBAR295

AKA Baron Vladimir Harkonne from Dune.

My exact initial thoughts

[Jimbuna]

World leaders vow to make Russia pay for its invasion of Ukraine at the end of the G7 summit in Germany.

"We will continue to keep up and drive up the economic and political costs of this war," Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz says.

The G7 leaders agree to work on a price cap for Russian oil, push for a ban on gold imports and call on countries not to stockpile food.

As the G7 wraps up, world leaders will travel to Madrid later for a Nato summit. They are expected to approve plans to increase the number of troops on high alert.

Ukraine’s president has denounced a Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian shopping centre as one of the "most brazen terrorist acts in European history"

Around 1,000 people were in the building in Kremenchuk on Monday when the attack happened, Volodymyr Zelensky says.

At least 18 are dead, 25 in hospital, with dozens more missing and fears the number of victims could rise.

[Jimbuna]

[Bilge_Rat]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia's failure to pay this interest now may also affect the other debts Russia has, On some of them there is a condition of early repayment if there is a default on another debt then you get a kind of snowball effect. In the longer term, this will make it harder and more expensive for Russia to borrow money. If Russia does not pay the interest, you think ten times before you lend money to Russia, and you only want to do that if you get a very high interest rate for it. And if borrowing becomes more expensive again that will also push up prices in the country further sanctions never work in the short term, it always takes time. This default does happen as a result of the sanctions. It is now becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to move in the financial markets. Ultimately, it becomes more likely that Russia will fall into a deep recession Russia will continue to function, but at a lower rate.

well no, it is a technical default. This is not a case where Russia is unable to pay its debts. Russia has enough foreign currency reserves and income to pay all of its debts. They even tried to pay their current debts, it is the U.S. which is preventing the payments so they can say Russia is in default. This will have no long term effect on the Russian economy.

US/EU is becoming increasingly desparate since it is now obvious Ukraine is about to collapse economically/militarily unless it gets massive financial/military support which the US/EU s not willing to give, so instead they are just putting on a PR operation where they can can release "good news" to give the impression Ukraine can still win.

A good example of that is the news that Ukraine is now a EU candidate. Everyone knows that means nothing, since it would require 5-10 years and massive political/judicial/anti-corruption/economic reforms before Ukraine could besome part of the EU.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Jens Stoltenberg says sanctions against Russia are the price worth paying for freedom, as Western leaders gather for a Nato summit in Madrid.

The Nato chief acknowledges many in the West are paying higher energy prices as a result.

But he warns the world will be more insecure if Russia wins in Ukraine.

World leaders at the summit are expected to approve plans to increase the number of troops on high alert.

It comes after G7 leaders set out fresh measures against Russia during a separate summit in Germany.

They agreed to work on a price cap for Russian oil, push for a ban on gold imports and they called on countries not to stockpile food.

Leaders have also been condemning Russia for a missile strike on a busy shopping centre in the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk that killed at least 18 people.

[mapuc]

Bulgaria has expelled 70 from the Russian Embassy.

Russia claim they hit a weapon store and not a mall.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Russia did not invade a sovereign country and are not at war ja ja ja

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Russia did not invade a sovereign country and are not at war ja ja ja

Found an English article

-Russia on Tuesday denied hitting a shopping mall in the Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk with missiles, saying that it had struck a nearby depot of U.S. and European arms triggering an explosion which ignited a fire in the mall.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/ar...hopping-center

Markus