Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Not as popular as one might want to believe.

Zelensky blocked from attending EU summit - after nation enjoys £7.4bn trade with Russia
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...0129fbfff&ei=9

[Skybird]

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp


Damn mines.
And while the Russian escalate their annihilation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, the West puts the foot on the break.


I predict that a tiring of Western puplic's motivation will become significant over this winter. And potlicians will think they must take that into account if the want to get re-elected...


Mar5tkus, the potential resrves on Russia are much bigger than that of Ukraine, and tueor potential poolö from which to draft recruits is also much bigger. Worse, Ukrian soldiers od not get much breaks anymore, are exhausted , and different to Russia they have no more young men who havwe not yet been drafted. Russia ruzns wear priduction, the West keeps a foot on the break with supplies. I also wonder whetehr the leosses they had with Wetsenr equipment maybe also have been caused by thgeir unfamiliarity with it, by which i mean that many Ukrianians formaitosn still run not by military doctrin of combioaned arms in fast and agile mobile warfare, biut Sowvjet doctrine, making the advanatages of Wetsenr material obsolote and wastign it in a kind of manouvering that does neutrlaise its advanatges. The diea that Ukraine can drive the Russians out in a fight man veruss man, was imho unrealistic from beginning on, they can only hope to make staying in Ukraine so miserable for Russian troops that they wnat to pull oput. Which is difficult if you have your own army in your rear telling you it will shoot you dead if you make a step backwards.



Wars get decided by numbers, not by "Wünsche-wünschen".



The American supply is not forever. The event about passing the new defence budget and the attempots by Republicans to block it if iut includes further ukrainian help, are no sign of optimism for the future. Kyiv's worries have become more numerous, not less.



If the Ukraine does not break through the first defence line of the Russians somewhere in the south (I do not care that much for territory in Bakhmut, what counts much more is territory bringing them closer to the coast, they must interdict Crimea) and within say the next 6 weeks or so, then I think its over for them for this year. And I have doubts, big doubts, they will be helped to form another 12 attack brigades for next year.



Its so very much about those damn mine. The Russian seem to mine not just belts and behind them free groudn again, but seem to mine EVWERYTHING, every single free squaremeter everywhere, so to speak.



Well, thats how I would do it, too. Mines (and drones) are faster and easier to produce in large quantity, than platforms and vehicles. I think in the West the relevance of mines has been underestimated.

[Jimbuna]

[August]

I though the Hungarians were also blocking it. I wonder what did they get out of the deal?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by August

I though the Hungarians were also blocking it. I wonder what did they get out of the deal?

I can't honestly say but it will all come out in the wash no doubt.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp


Damn mines.
And while the Russian escalate their annihilation of Ukrainians in occupied territories, the West puts the foot on the break.


I predict that a tiring of Western puplic's motivation will become significant over this winter. And potlicians will think they must take that into account if the want to get re-elected...


Mar5tkus, the potential resrves on Russia are much bigger than that of Ukraine, and tueor potential poolö from which to draft recruits is also much bigger. Worse, Ukrian soldiers od not get much breaks anymore, are exhausted , and different to Russia they have no more young men who havwe not yet been drafted. Russia ruzns wear priduction, the West keeps a foot on the break with supplies. I also wonder whetehr the leosses they had with Wetsenr equipment maybe also have been caused by thgeir unfamiliarity with it, by which i mean that many Ukrianians formaitosn still run not by military doctrin of combioaned arms in fast and agile mobile warfare, biut Sowvjet doctrine, making the advanatages of Wetsenr material obsolote and wastign it in a kind of manouvering that does neutrlaise its advanatges. The diea that Ukraine can drive the Russians out in a fight man veruss man, was imho unrealistic from beginning on, they can only hope to make staying in Ukraine so miserable for Russian troops that they wnat to pull oput. Which is difficult if you have your own army in your rear telling you it will shoot you dead if you make a step backwards.



Wars get decided by numbers, not by "Wünsche-wünschen".



The American supply is not forever. The event about passing the new defence budget and the attempots by Republicans to block it if iut includes further ukrainian help, are no sign of optimism for the future. Kyiv's worries have become more numerous, not less.



If the Ukraine does not break through the first defence line of the Russians somewhere in the south (I do not care that much for territory in Bakhmut, what counts much more is territory bringing them closer to the coast, they must interdict Crimea) and within say the next 6 weeks or so, then I think its over for them for this year. And I have doubts, big doubts, they will be helped to form another 12 attack brigades for next year.



Its so very much about those damn mine. The Russian seem to mine not just belts and behind them free groudn again, but seem to mine EVWERYTHING, every single free squaremeter everywhere, so to speak.



Well, thats how I would do it, too. Mines (and drones) are faster and easier to produce in large quantity, than platforms and vehicles. I think in the West the relevance of mines has been underestimated.

Without air cover, the option of tank warfare is not open to Ukraine, which is why the slowness of the counteroffensive is being misunderstood there is also the scale of Russia’s defences, much improved since Kharkiv, protecting miles of minefields, tank traps and fortified, artillery-protected defensive positions to the rear. At present, the Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles must move slowly and probe the whole length of the front for weaknesses, mile by mile. That makes it all the more akin to the pre-tank era of the First World War’s western front. The armour forms breaching groups to bombard Russian front lines and force them to retreat, with the infantry then following up to occupy those lines. “We shell their lines and force them to fall back, and our infantry take over their trenches,” the Ukrainians say. “Then the Russians bombard the same trenches, and it’s our infantry’s turn to fall back.”

[mapuc]

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

Markus

They could but for some reason they do not use they are afraid of the Ukraine anti-air defense, having many planes does not mean they are operational and there is maybe the lack of good trained pilots. This goes for the rest of their army they could have the personnel, but they need training like all that material needs to be made operational and need working ammunition you can have it all on paper that does not say it can be used on the battleground. This means excellent leadership that need to organize and execute this the Russian army is not known of good leadership it is corrupt they are more busy with enriching themselves than take care of their soldiers.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does Russia have full air superiority over Ukraine ?

Markus

In reach of the front, yes. They can also effectively suppress the limited air attack attempts by Ukraine's air force, sicne the Russian fighters have superior radar and weapon range over the ukrainian Mig-29. Or better, the ukrainian Mig-29s do not have the legs and arms and eyes to engage the attacking Russiang fighters.

Any Russian CAS - fixed wing or helo - firing from outside manpad's range also is untouchable for Ukrainians. The medium range air defences given to Ukraine are almost completely used to defend the cities. Thats why the Russians keep firing at the cities: to keep these defences where they are.


Its worth to recall that by pre-war doctrine Russian ground forces are/were extremely saturated with anti-tank and anti-air missiles. Their ATGM load was much higher than that of any Western army. On paper at least.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In reach of the front, yes. They can also effectively suppress the limited air attack attempts by Ukraine's air force, sicne the Russian fighters have superior radar and weapon range over the ukrainian Mig-29. Or better, the ukrainian Mig-29s do not have the legs and arms and eyes to engage the attacking Russiang fighters.



Any Russian CAS - fixed wing or helo - firing from outside manpad's range also is untouchable for Ukrainians. The medium range air defences given to Ukraine are almost completely used to defend the cities. Thats why the Russians keep firing at the cities: to keep these defences where they are.

Russians does not have full air superiority, else they would use(d) it to target Ukraine forces on and behind the front every modern Western army would first bombard the front and behind before sending troops to attack. In the gulf wars and Iraq war, first they send in the planes and cruise missiles for weeks to soften the enemy.

[Skybird]

They have, at the front. Fixed wing and gunships attack frontlines and columns from beyond the target's counterfire range. Thats one of the three big problems Kyiv has: loitering munitions, very modern mines, and that the balance in the air war has shifted in Russia's favour. Russia even has begun, since longer already, to re-mine the small passages the Ukrainians had de-mined (via artillery-delivered mines).


If the text I linked toa couple of posts above is right, then they even mine the areas behind the assumed mine belts. The mine the whole damn place, not just obstacles and belts.



Cluster amuntions will not help Ukrianians to advance either, they cnanot use them to bomb areas they plan toa dvance thorugh, due to the duds. They indeed cna onyl use the couster ammunitions to interdict Russian C3I and logstics, and fortifications they do not plan to approach nearby. I think the media paint a wrong picture there.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...] .. they even mine the areas behind the assumed mine belts. The mine the whole damn place, not just obstacles and belts.

Which is why NATO should get its thing together and make Russia pay. How long does the world want to sit back and just watch.

[mapuc]

Does this weapon exist ?

I'm talking about a mobile SAM system who can fire AMRAAMS 120 D.

Thinking on a system who can be pulled by a truck or tanks.

Using this at the front to shoot down these KA 52, SU25 and other Russian fighter jet.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does this weapon exist ?

I'm talking about a mobile SAM system who can fire AMRAAMS 120 D.

Thinking on a system who can be pulled by a truck or tanks.

Using this at the front to shoot down these KA 52, SU25 and other Russian fighter jet.

Markus

A more recent version is the High Mobility Launcher for the NASAMS, made in cooperation with Raytheon (Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace was already a subcontractor on the SLAMRAAM system), where the launch-vehicle is a Humvee (M1152A1 HMMWV), containing four AMRAAMs and two optional AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles. https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmed...efence-system/

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

A more recent version is the High Mobility Launcher for the NASAMS, made in cooperation with Raytheon (Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace was already a subcontractor on the SLAMRAAM system), where the launch-vehicle is a Humvee (M1152A1 HMMWV), containing four AMRAAMs and two optional AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles. https://www.kongsberg.com/newsandmed...efence-system/

They should start to send a lot of these Humvees to Ukraine.

Markus