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Old 02-09-14, 12:05 PM   #46
Dan D
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Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
Not that I'm aware of, that's one of the things that Russia dangled on a rope for them to sign for keeping the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, but the Russians are crash-expanding the base at Novorossiysk, so if they do lose Sevastopol it won't be that devastating to the Black Sea Fleet.
Yes, and:

The big issues between the Ukraine and Russia is Crimea (peninsula on the northern coast of the Black Sea). If you look at the history of Crimea at e.g.wiki: Russia annexed Crimea in 1783 and it became part of Russia. After 1944, when Crimea was freed from German occupation by the Red Army, it became a province of the Russian SSR.
But in 1954 it was within the Union of SSR (USSR) transferred from the Russian USSR to the Ukranian SSR which the Russian-nationalist side today after the collapse of the USSR considers as a huge mistake.
In 1992 Crimiea was upgraded to an Autonomous SSR within the USSR. After the USSR ceased existence, crimea became part of the independant Ukraine which caused tensions between Russia and the Ukraine.

Crimea is now an autonomous republic within the Ukraine, but its population is 58,5 % Russians and 24,4% Ukrainians, On the Crimea people vote pro-Russian but not pro-West or Ukrainian-nationalist candidates.

May be if the Ukraine transfers Crimea back to Russia, then Russia will allow the Ukraine a rapprochment to the West.
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Old 02-09-14, 03:14 PM   #47
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Hmmm, good point, I can't see anyone in the Ukraine letting Crimea go that easily though, although it could drift away if things go bad enough in the Ukraine to lead to a civil war, but I don't see either the government or the political elements of the opposition wanting to let to go that far.

It's a delicate situation alright, and with Bosnia flaring up again as well, could be we are in for an interesting ride with Eastern Europe, IIRC Betonov posted about trouble in Slovenia a while ago, not sure how it was resolved or whether it's an on-going thing. I think the problem might be that the systems put in place after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact are starting to have the wheels fall off, and people are getting restless that after twenty years they don't have the same sort of freedoms as western Europe. I might be wrong though, I have no real experience of Eastern Europe other than what I've read and heard, so I might be barking up the wrong tree, but with Slovenia last year, Ukraine last year and this year, and now Bosnia...I'm hoping that we're not seeing something that's going to snowball here and result in some sort of 'Eastern Europe Spring'.
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Old 02-09-14, 05:57 PM   #48
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Putin wants to install an Eurasian customs union, and a sphere of Russian influence similiar to the former USSR. That's why the Crimea alone is not the decisve issue here. Its not just a local territorial strategic assessment over Crimea that leads the Russians to set up a fight for the Ukraine.

Putin has also not forgotten the years under Yelzin when the West promised to leave a buffer zone of nations between NATO and Russia, and then NATO broke all these agreements and promises and started top move right up onto Russian borders. That lesson sank deep, and it coincides with the change in Putin. Few people remember (or want to be reminded of today) that the young Putin was a much more open-minded man who imagined Russia to benefit from opening the country for stronger European input of knowhow and investment, he was compared (in the West!) to Alexander the great a bit. But then came the Yelzin years, the unscrupulous invasion by Western predators that were a great factor in bringing the Russian oligarchs to powers that Putin later had to fight down so mercilessly because they effectively threatened to take over the state), the sale-out of Russian economic interests because the Russian were not fit to deal with the aggressive Western entrepreneurs who tried to make a quick fortune in Russia, and the betrayal by America-led NATO. That marked a significant change in his thinking about what to do in the future. Granted, the man himself probably also has changed in character over those 25, 30 years. But the Putinistic Russia we have to deal with today last but not least is a consequence of Western policies towards Russia in the early years after the USSR breakdown. Playing soft and polite, Putin saw, brought Russia nowhere and earne donly losses. So he decided to start to play tough. And that'S where we have moved in the past years.

We really did not shine with glory ourselves in all this. It's not all the West's fault that Russia now is what it is. But we did our share to make it that, mostly because the West thought: Russia either runs our way, or no way. That kind of thinking was misled, arrogant, and obviously wrong.

Its like I always say: Russia is neither Europe, nor Asia. Russia is Russia, and Russian people have a different mentality than Americans or Western Europeans.

That mistake has been repeated several timers with regard to other regions of the globe, after the Yelzin years. The Iraq war heavily owes to this misconception. Afghanistan. Western views of the Israeli-PLO conflict, and the Arab uprising of recent years.

Right now, the Europeans snap about the US comment about the EU, and they do not see that they just retrieve the stick that Putin has thrown. And Obama's country balances on its hindpaws, while Putin has pointed the erected pointing finger over Syria.

Really, Western leaders should not complain about Putin, but about their own indifference, reality denial and idiocy.

That Iran de facto has been left off the hook, is no compliment for Western diplomacy either. More a signal that diplomats should urgently be rushed into mental asylums.

The state of Western diplomacy is this: its a mixture of maximum childishness, and self-destruction. Overhearing in the news Germany's new foreign policy punchinello Steinmeier and what he had to say in Afghanistan, made me feel sick and burst in laughter at the same time. It's all a ball of narcissistic operetta stars. Everybody wants to wear a golden livrée, and everybody wants to sing his own aria. The noise is just breathtaking, and the sight is petrifying the eyes.
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Old 02-18-14, 02:46 PM   #49
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And here we go again.

The Ukrainian government seems to have escalated matters a bit, sending in the big boys to break things up. Can't be too much of a co-incidence that Russia announced only a couple of days ago that it's going to resume buying Ukrainian bonds after it stopped on the 28th Jan (when the Prime Minister of Ukraine resigned)

The BBC is doing a live timeline of events, but as always, RussiaToday is the closest and usually more up to date on events on the ground:

BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26244542

RT:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/
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Old 02-18-14, 02:51 PM   #50
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Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down
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Old 02-18-14, 03:01 PM   #51
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I'd say that Yanukovich has pushed the button, and now it's the endgame. The police and riot forces will go in to disperse the camp, the only question is how successful they will be and how many more will die before the end.

If they fail and have to fall back...we may yet see the military involved. However, I think both sides want to avoid that, although whether it's in Klitschkos power to control the protesters is another matter entirely, he might be able to sway some of the moderates, but the 1488s aren't going to listen to anyone.
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Old 02-18-14, 03:05 PM   #52
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Quote:
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Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down
Espreso TV is still running live feed.

http://espreso.tv/

I wonder if the police will beat them up again on live TV and then make the reporters mysteriously disappear like last month?
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Old 02-18-14, 03:12 PM   #53
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Espreso TV is still running live feed.
Only available online I believe, the channel which was covering the protests, Channel 5 I believe, has been taken off air.
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Old 02-18-14, 04:23 PM   #54
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The military has given warning to the opposition already days ago, also to the government over its perceived weak policy. If anyone had doubts still where the military will line up, this should have cleared it.

Klitschko is overestimated I think, I cannot see that he really has political influence in the Ukraine, nor does it help him that the opposition is divided into several sub factions. He wants to have influence. But that is the difference: the difference between what he wants and what he can. I also have not heard a single argument so far what qwould qualify him to be seen as a major figure of the opposition leadership.

Russia has offered a new credit tranche. Olympics come to an end this weekend. And then the rules of the game would have changed again anyway. At least from a Russian POV.
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Old 02-18-14, 04:37 PM   #55
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Only available online I believe, the channel which was covering the protests, Channel 5 I believe, has been taken off air.
Quote:
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Doesn't bode well when live broadcasting across the country has been shut down
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Old 02-18-14, 05:46 PM   #56
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Wonder where this could lead to if it escalate? A diplomatically crisis between Russia and EU?
Or civil war?

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Old 02-18-14, 09:11 PM   #57
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A civil war I bet the Ukraine is kind of 50/50ish some wish to be more associated with Russia others with the West.
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Old 02-18-14, 10:42 PM   #58
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It is quite literally an East/West split in the country in regards to who they want to associate themselves with. However, I don't see it going into a civil war, not just yet. The military brass seem to be impatient to get the protests over, and now that the Olympics are drawing to a close, Russia can re-engage Hard Hat Putin mode and basically order Yanukovich to end the protests at any cost.
If the military is sent in and starts rebelling then I could see a civil war, but as with most civil wars, it all depends on which way the military is going to lean.

Whoever wins though, the Ukraine is going to lose, those Russian 'loans' only last for two years, which means in about two years time the Ukrainian economy is going to collapse, which means it's either going to find itself attached to Germany or Russia for its continued survival.
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Old 02-18-14, 10:51 PM   #59
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Oh, and remember that Lenin statue that was torn down towards the start of this whole affair?

This is what replaced it:

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Old 02-19-14, 12:03 AM   #60
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I know a person I met in the Air Force that immigrated from the Ukraine in the early 90's with his parents seems like the ones that could who had doubts about the long term prospects which had the means to left.

Yeah it is not like the EU is that strong really how many more nations can Germany support not many.Just think how much better the German economy would be if it did not have to support the dead weight.
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