Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Russia began withdrawing troops from Kherson on October 22, - British intelligence

Russia, most likely, began withdrawing troops from the right bank of the Dnipro in Kherson as early as October 22.

This is reported in a brief summary of British intelligence published by the British Ministry of Defense on Twitter, Censor.NET informs.

"The withdrawal was completed only two days after its announcement. It is quite likely that the withdrawal process had already begun on October 22, 2022, when officials appointed by the Russian Federation in Kherson called on civilians to leave the city," the summary says.

So most likely, British intelligence suggests, Russian military equipment and soldiers in civilian clothes have been evacuated along with the local population in recent weeks.

"Kherson was the only regional capital captured by Russian troops since February, so the withdrawal causes significant reputational damage. The withdrawal is a public acknowledgment of the difficulties faced by the Russian troops on the west bank of the Dnipro," - according to British intelligence.

It is likely that Ukraine has regained significant territories of the Kherson region on the west bank of the Dnipro River, and that its forces now mainly control the city of Kherson itself, the report notes.

"It is also quite likely that Russia is still trying to evacuate forces from other areas of the region across the river to defensive positions on the eastern bank," British intelligence emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380062

After Kherson, Ukrainian Armed Forces may prepare for offensive in direction of Melitopol, - New York Times

Ukraine shows no desire for a truce and intends to continue liberating territories by military means. Probably, after Kherson, the AFU can prepare for an offensive through the Zaporizhzhia region in the direction of Melitopol.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to The New York Times.

"Many analysts and diplomats assume that in the winter there may be a pause in major hostilities and even peace negotiations, but after the Russians were pushed out of Kherson, Ukraine has no desire to stop," the newspaper writes.

The NYT notes that in light of recent events, Ukrainian forces "show no signs of stopping their offensive for the winter" and will not allow the war to reach a stalemate.

Referring to the data of the military, close to the hostilities in Ukraine, the publication writes, "there are more and more hints that the Ukrainians are preparing for a new land offensive."

In particular, the next offensive of the Armed Forces may be directed to the South through the Zaporizhzhia region in the direction of Melitopol.

The NYT writes that Ukrainian forces "could challenge Russia's control of the southern region" it captured in a full-scale invasion that began in February.

Journalists refer to the words of a senior lieutenant, the commander of an anti-tank unit that defends the city of Bakhmut in Donbas, which is constantly under enemy attacks.

"The logic of war is not to stop, but somehow to continue moving forward. I think that there will be counterattacks in other directions so that the enemy does not have time to shift reserves and block the strikes," said the military man.

At the same time, Western experts predict that Ukraine will achieve further success in the South, as Russian morale and organization will disintegrate.

Other analysts are more cautious. They expect both sides to take an operational pause due to worsening weather conditions: mud, moisture and cold, and because the fighting in Kherson has been extremely exhausting.

However, experts predict that full-scale fighting will resume in the spring.

"Ukraine's next targets will most likely be either in the direction of Melitopol in the South or in the East, continuing the offensive that knocked Russian troops out of Kharkiv region to recapture the city of Svatov in Luhansk region, which has been the center of hostilities for the past month," - cites the publication of analysts.

However, experts agree that regardless of whether there is a pause or not, the next phase will again be extremely brutal. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380065

[Jimbuna]

Turkey wants to turn "grain corridor" into a path to peace, - Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that the "grain corridor" initiative can become a harbinger of peace in the region and pave the way for a "peace corridor" between the Russian Federation and Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Anadolu.

"Of course, today Russia has faced unlimited attacks from the West, especially from the US. The Russian Federation resists pressure. At the same time, Turkey seeks to turn the "grain corridor" into a path of peace," the Turkish leader said.

According to him, Putin's position on this issue alone is not enough, and he intends to raise the issue in a conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky.

Erdogan also expects to talk about the expansion of the "grain corridor" with Russian fertilizers.

The Turkish leader also said that his country is in favor of continuing the Black Sea Grain Initiative: "The longer the agreement lasts, the better." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380103

Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation has ordered batch of latest hypersonic missiles "Tsirkon", - Russian media

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation ordered an additional batch of the latest hypersonic missiles "Tsirkon" from the industry.

As reported by Censor.NET, this was reported by the propaganda publication TASS with reference to sources.

According to the interlocutor, the additional contract refers to several dozen missiles, the deadline for its implementation is 2023.

Also remind, that in November 2021, dictator Putin announced that tests of the "Tsirkon" hypersonic cruise missile were coming to an end in Russia. From 2022, it will enter service with the Russian Navy. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380107

Russia has exhausted its stockpile of missiles, there will be no massive firefights yet, - ISW

It will likely take months for Russian forces to accumulate the number of precision weapon systems that will allow them to return to the strike rates of mid-October.

This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Censor.NET reports.

According to him, it is difficult for the Russians to maintain the current pace of destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, because they have greatly depleted their arsenal of high-precision weapon systems.

According to analysts, Putin ordered the bombing of Ukrainian critical infrastructure to curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp, which consistently calls for escalation in Ukraine.

As the bombing rate slows down, criticism of Putin will resume.

At the same time, experts note, the Russians will be able to damage the most important Ukrainian infrastructure, but they are unlikely to be able to cause decisive and lasting damage. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3379788

[Jimbuna]

Erdogan said that West is "attacking Russia"

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that Russia is currently resisting an attack from "the West, especially America."

Turkish TV channel TRT quotes Erdogan's words, Censor.NET reports with reference to "European Truth".

"...We are going through an unusual process. Russia is not an ordinary state, it is a powerful state. Of course, the West, especially America, attacks Russia almost without limit. Against the background of all this, of course, Russia is currently resisting," the Turkish president told reporters upon returning from the summit of the Turkic Council in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Erdogan also said that he hopes to hold talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 summit, including about a full-scale war in Ukraine.

"During the last meeting with him (Putin), I told him that I think it is appropriate for him to come to Indonesia... Then it was decided that the Minister of Foreign Affairs will come to Indonesia. In these 2-3 days, if I can contact him , maybe I will have the opportunity to talk with him about what he thinks, what steps they will take, especially what steps they can take in order to transform this process, that is, dialogue, into peace," he said.

It is not the first time that the Turkish side has said that the West is trying to use the war in Ukraine to weaken Russia. Previously, they talked about Moscow's willingness to conclude a "big deal" with the West against the background of the war in Ukraine, and also declared their readiness to play a mediating role. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380138

[Jimbuna]

Agreements on supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia have been confirmed, - Defense Intelligence

The military intelligence of Ukraine confirmed the information about the preparation of the draft agreement on the supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.

This was reported by the representative of the Defence intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, Vadym Skibitsky, Censor.NET informs.

"According to the military intelligence of Ukraine, in the summer of this year, the Russian Federation signed a contract with Iran for the supply of about 1,750 unmanned aerial vehicles of two types - "Shahed" and "Mohajer". The first batch of such UAVs that arrived in Russia was about 350 units, the second - about 250 units. Due to the influence of sanctions that affect the production of weapons, the Russian Federation has a shortage of modern weapons. Because of this, the Russian Federation is trying to purchase weapons from other countries - the outcasts of the world," he said.

The military intelligence of Ukraine confirmed information about the preparation of a draft agreement on the supply of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.

"We understand the threat of using ballistic missiles against our state, that is why today the position of our diplomacy, military intelligence and other structures, which are working hard to prove to the world community how dangerous the supply of weapons by Iran to Russia is, is very active. There are practical results - after the demonstration of real evidence, Iran changed its position and stopped denying its involvement in the supply of weapons to Russia. Active work in this direction continues," Skibitsky concluded. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380148

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Reports of fighting underway in the Kinburn peninsula


First official confirmation: "The Kinburn peninsula, which remains the only unliberated territory in the Mykolaiv region, is the target of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, "combat work is underway", — said Nataliya Humenyuk, the spokesperson of the operational command "Pivden" Russian Telegram channels talk about Russians retreating from Kinburn. Kinburn Spit - the place where Russians launches their S300, now it's easier to supply by boats than by ground. Ukraine is capable to sustain isolated footholds, the whole river bank is accessible for recon units. https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/stat...23718060064768

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn projected the war index for 2030 in 2017 on the basis of demopgraphic trends and data available back then. These demographic trends change only slowly over time, so the trend the table indicates, probably still is more or less valid and correct. Explanation of what it is, is in the text at the top, if you have fogtten (I mentioned this index repeatedly over the years). Its about the ratio between old and young men in a society. Now look up states like USA, UK, Germany, Russia, China, Taiwan; or Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, various african crisis hotspots...


Note that this index does not indicate decisions made by foolish old criminal scumbags at the top of states, but reflect on the inner dynamics of population-wide drives and motivations, the energy of population that pushes things to certain developments all by itself. That Russia has a low war index and Putin declaring war, is no contradiction, both have nothign to do with each other. You need to see the numbers in comparison to the "real" sympathy of the population for the war. Would it have demanded this war all by itself, for nationalistic grandezza and young men's eagerness to prove themselves in war over a nationalistic or ideological/religous cause? Hardly.



Relevant the index also is for realising what the loss of mostly fighting men's life in the war means for the demographic future of the population.



War also incldues, always, to win by killing enemy soldiers. Whicxh might be difficult if the enemy has a bigegr supply of young men than the other side has bullets to kill them. Idf demiogroahcis during a long term war even chnage so that the war iondex climbs durign the conflict, this is not good news for the other side. This explaisn quite some of why the West as well as Russia failed in Afghanistan, Iraq.






I post this in the Ukraine and in the China thread.

[les green01]

i seen where Russia blew up a dam and seen the video but now can't find it anyone else seen that or have info

[August]

Originally Posted by les green01

i seen where Russia blew up a dam and seen the video but now can't find it anyone else seen that or have info

You're probably thinking of the bridge they blew up that was next to the dam.

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 80,860 people (+650 per day), 2,840 tanks, 1,837 artillery systems, 5,742 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

The Russian occupiers, who invaded the territory of Ukraine, continue to suffer losses. As of the morning of November 13, the loss of enemy personnel are approximately 80,860 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24/02 to 13/11 are estimated to be:

personnel - about 80,860 (+650) people were liquidated,
tanks - 2840 (+2) units,
armored combat vehicles - 5742 (+12) units,
artillery systems - 1,837 (+8) units,
MRLS - 393 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 206 (+1) units,
aircraft - 278 (+0) units,
helicopters - 261 (+0) units,
UAV of operational-tactical level - 1507 (+1),
cruise missiles - 399 (+0),
ships/boats - 16 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 4295 (+16) units,
special equipment - 160 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380208

[Catfish]

Propaganda, but also a bit of humor, probably wasted on russians.
"Party like a russian: triathlon in Kherson, dirty bomb in Volgograd"




Meanwhile, the main ideologue of the "Russian world" Dugin calls for the execution of Putin. Of course, the post did not last long and was deleted, but the Internet does not forget anything.

https://twitter.com/TreasChest/statu...85453058777088

[Dargo]

"The time for demonstrations and protest marches is over. From now on, Putin's henchmen can count on Molotov cocktails and bullets." So read the first message on the Telegram channel of the Committee of the Bashki Resistance a month and a half ago, right after Putin declared mobilization. The resistance group simultaneously posted a manual for partisan combat and instructions on how to manufacture Molotov cocktails. A series of attacks followed in the remote Bashkortostan republic south of the Urals.

The first target was a local recruitment agency. Resistance fighters also set fire to a party office of the ruling United Russia, as well as transformer houses at railroad junctions and, this week, a large storage tank at a railway station. The Kremlin, meanwhile, is beginning to worry. "In World War II, there was a simple solution to this kind of saboteur - summary execution," Putin's spokeswoman Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel.

While in other parts of Russia there is still little sign of open struggle against the regime, a resistance movement is clearly beginning to emerge in Bashkortostan. Especially as mobilization is hitting the region disproportionately hard, as are other poor republics with large ethnic minorities. Bashkortostan is number four on the list of the most soldiers killed so far recorded.

The face of this resistance is Ruslan Gabbasov of the Bashkyan National Political Center, who has defected to Lithuania. In order not to harm the partisan struggle, he does not make any announcements about his contacts with the resistance fighters. "But we pursue the same goal: the overthrow of Putin's regime," he said in a telephone interview with NIS. He also would not say how many resistance fighters are currently active in Bashkortostan. "The partisans operate in cells of three to five men who know nothing about each other and each other's actions. Everything is done with complete secrecy."

The various Telegram channels of the Bashki resistance have between 1,000 and 3,000 followers. Support among the local population is growing by the day, according to Gabbasov. "With the mobilization, Putin suddenly brought the war to everyone's home. Bashkis all have a brother, father, son or friend who was sent to the war in Ukraine." 'This is not our war,' now echoes everywhere in the republic. "Why would we want to fight for an empire that has always denied us our own language and national identity, just as it is doing now with Ukraine," Gabbasov says.

Even before the war, Bashkis stood up for their own national heritage. For example, mass riots occurred in 2020 when the government issued a mining permit for Kushtau, a sacred Bashkian mountain. At the time, the struggle of Bashkian activists still revolved around greater freedom and equal rights for the region within the Russian Federation. Now the aspiration is independence and there are already several designs for their own passports and national symbols. Earlier, Gabbasov reported on his Telegram channel that freedom fighters are already setting up a Bashkortostan army. Its fighters swear allegiance to a free Bashkortostan. Gabbasov: "If Putin's regime is toppled, for example by mutinous soldiers in Moscow, the Bashkian partisan fighters are ready to break away from Russia."

According to Russian political scientist Dmitri Ureshkin, a national consciousness has developed among Bashkian intellectuals in recent years. "They question the legitimacy of Moscow's appointed administrators," he says on the independent Russian news site Vjorstka. "And they actually pose a threat to power with their ideals of freedom."

Local businessmen allegedly finance the freedom struggle. The acts of resistance must be done in secret, Oreshkin said. "Such a struggle can only be effective if the movement operates underground," he said. In the struggle for independence, Bashkortostan is positioning itself as a pioneer among the national republics, Oreshkin believes. "Putin has opened Pandora's box with his war. His disastrous policy gives ethnic resistance groups a huge boost. The country will fall apart sooner or later."

Resistance groups in other republics now also have Telegram channels, such as the Siberian Resistance and Dawn of Dagestan. "You will see," Gabbasov says, "as soon as Bashkortostan declares independence, regions like Yakutia, Tuva and Dagestan will also follow."

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by les green01

i seen where Russia blew up a dam and seen the video but now can't find it anyone else seen that or have info

The Antonivsky Bridge and the Darivka Bridge are damaged with explosions render them inoperable also 6 sections (road sections) of the Nova Kakhovka dam are damaged by fleeing Russian forces.

Satellite imagery shows damage to the Antonivksy Bridge in Kherson


Satellite image of damage to the Darivka Bridge in the Kherson Oblast


Satellite image of damage to the Nova Kakhova Dam in Kherson

[Kptlt. Neuerburg]

[Jimbuna]

Kherson: Inside the city liberated from the Russians

By Jeremy Bowen
BBC News, Kherson, Ukraine

On Friday, Ukrainian troops entered Kherson for the first time since Russia began its occupation of the city in March.

Moscow had - just over a month ago - proclaimed it as Russia's administrative capital for the Kherson region, following the illegal annexation of four regions in September.

At the time, Russia claimed almost all residents backed the move. But, having reached the liberated southern city, the BBC finds a community breathing a sigh of relief following months of terror at the hands of the occupying force, proud to once again wave their Ukrainian flags openly.

A trumpeter played Ukraine's national anthem as he stood on a plinth outside the main government offices in the central square in Kherson. Individuals and then groups joined in with the words.

In a big crowd, many were crying. Ukrainian flags are everywhere, on poles, dangling from cars, painted on faces. Even dogs have small flags tucked into their collars.

Reunions - some backslapping and cheery, others tearful - are everywhere as people run into old friends they haven't seen for months.

A middle aged man called Yuri told how he spent 200 days in his house, keeping out of the way of Russians.

A market trader called Tatiana said a Sunday without Russians was the best Sunday there could be.

But then she took out her phone and showed images of her 20-something son after he was held by the Russians and beaten for nine days. When he was released from hospital, he managed to escape and leave Ukraine. Tatiana said they burnt all his documents and deleted all his photos.

The main emotions here seem to be patriotism and relief - as well as caution and some trepidation about what happens next.

The people of Kherson have been too close to the Russian military for too long to fool themselves about the hardships ahead.

From time to time, distant explosions come in from the edge of town. Some of it is shelling. The rest might be the sound of Ukranian engineers blowing up mines and booby traps left by the Russians.

At the market, some traders muttered furiously about collaborators, quietly pointing out some who they said had helped the Russians. People here want justice. They're waiting for police and investigators to reach Kherson and start work.

But as one resident notes, if there's no justice, people here might take the law into their own hands.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63615008