Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

The opinion piece I linked to, confirmed what I say since years. The time when NATO pushes for making the ukraine a NATO member is the time when Russia will go to full war, invade the Ukraine and take it all by force - before any NATO contingents could be offically stationed there.

Not so sure about Georgia, but I tend to think similiar about it. Georgia does not have the same strategic relevance as the Ukraine has, but shifting towards NATO membership nevertheless is a smbolically overcharged tunring point for the Russians and I think as long as Putin sees Europe weak and the US leadership as impotent, he would not let it happen and would play "all in". Who would stop him, and how...?

The German role in all this is just awful. Scholz already tries to rub noses with the Russians again, and it was Germany that prevented Europe to deliver the Ukraine potent weapons to fight for itself. France is not any better, protecting China and Riussia from Western pressure like Germany does. A Russia that has "opponents" like this, does not need victories anymore - it already has marked all its scores.

Putin scanned, Putin laid in ambush, and now that a breach opened, he rushed into it with force and determination. And no, he is not bluffing.

He does not need to bluff.

Biden's reply, as far as known in the public from media reporting, is lame and neither impresses the Russians, nor reassures the Ukrainians. Maybe he should have stayed in bed. US sanctions? Hehe, the Russians laugh, but such sanctions will take Europe as hostage, the US threat is more a threat for European economies than for Russia's. When will the West finally understand it: YOU CANNOT BLACKMAIL RUSSIA WITH ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, its too autark in energy, and food. And what do financial threats mean in an age when central banks have rendered the term "money" a hollow phrase, a pointless shell? The Russians have pushed their gold reserves to the highest standing ever, and last year accelerated the monthly buying of gold again. They see the mounting inflation in the West, and go into real values. Between 25 and 30% of their monetarian reserves they hold in gold, and they hold no relevant ammounts of dollars anymore.

Compare: Germany does not get its gold back from the safes in New York. When the Germans some years ago wanted to relocate even just a fraction of "their" treasure back to germany, the Americans just denied that, and gave out only a fraction of that fraction. When the Germans demanded to take a look at the physical reserves to assure the German gold still is there, the Americans denied to allow access. Their foul excuses were most obvious to everybody with eyes to see and ears to listen.

The German gold is no more there, that simple it is. It has been sued up for other purposes by the American governments. Like the German 1+ trillion in target-2 credit money for Euro-debtors never will be paid back to Germany either. If you need money, take it from the Germans. They are so stupid and lame that you can do everything with them. Thats why I no more say the German state holds the second biggest gold reserve after the US. The Germans have no gold anymore. The Americans took it away, and Germany is too weak to do anything about it, that simple it is. It smiles about the foul play - to not being laughed about too loudly, and to not getting mocked too obviously.

[mapuc]

Skybird gave another reason to why Russia will invade Ukraine.

Preventing it from becoming a NATO member.

Edit
In the next couples of days we can expect news that Russia has withdrawn troops from the border. Now you may think-What a relief war threat is over for now. Well the reason why Putin withdraw troops from the border is their holiday-Russia is also celebrating Russian Orthodox Christmas and NYE-Which is 6th and 13th Jan.
End edit

Markus

[mapuc]

Here is a translated article from a Danish news paper.

The President of Finland uses the New Year's speech to speak out against Russia: "Finland has the freedom and opportunity to apply for membership of NATO, and we will use it if we feel it is necessary," said President Sauli Niinistö.

https://www-bt-dk.translate.goog/udl...en&_x_tr_hl=da

Markus

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The German role in all this is just awful
Compare: Germany does not get its gold back from the safes in New York. When the Germans some years ago wanted to relocate even just a fraction of "their" treasure back to germany, the Americans just denied that, and gave out only a fraction of that fraction. When the Germans demanded to take a look at the physical reserves to assure the German gold still is there, the Americans denied to allow access. Their foul excuses were most obvious to everybody with eyes to see and ears to listen.

The German gold is no more there, that simple it is. It has been sued up for other purposes by the American governments. Like the German 1+ trillion in target-2 credit money for Euro-debtors never will be paid back to Germany either. If you need money, take it from the Germans. They are so stupid and lame that you can do everything with them. Thats why I no more say the German state holds the second biggest gold reserve after the US. The Germans have no gold anymore. The Americans took it away, and Germany is too weak to do anything about it, that simple it is. It smiles about the foul play - to not being laughed about too loudly, and to not getting mocked too obviously.

C'mon now! all that recycled dental gold with elevated mercury content is a toxic hazardous substance best kept in Ft Knox vaults... https://article.scholarena.co/Histor...Swiss-Bank.pdf and that's only part of the "problem" https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/histori...-gold/45037968 https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/histori...-gold/45037968

Switzerland benefited from its neutrality during World War II by purchasing vast amounts of gold from Allied and Axis powers. It exchanged the precious metal for Swiss francs, the only free convertible currency at the time outside the American dollar. This trade benefitted Germany in particular, effectively turning Switzerland into an enabler of the German war effort. The Swiss acquired 79% of all German gold delivered to foreign countries, with 90% of that ending up in the Swiss National Bank and the remainder in commercial banks. It is believed that Swiss banks bought CHF1.7 billion ($1.7 billion) worth of Nazi gold, including gold that Germany plundered from the reserves of conquered countries, notably Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Norway. Some of this gold was confiscated from private persons or removed from victims of concentration camps. After the war, the burning question was how much Switzerland knew about the gold and when. The Alpine nation agreed to pay reparations worth CHF250 million and also promised to identify dormant accounts which were heirless.

[August]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

C'mon now! all that recycled dental gold with elevated mercury content is a toxic hazardous substance best kept in Ft Knox vaults...

You'd think they'd have plenty of gold seeing as how they welched on paying their NATO dues.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Catfish

After all it all boils down on declarations, promises and treaties.
The unification of Germany was agreed to Russia NATO would hold back expanding eastward. As we all know the falldown of the russian soviet state was used to do exactly that, breaking the promise.
I do not like it, but Russia/Putin has a point.

If anyone in the west decides to make Ukraine a Nato member Putin will rather invade it first.
If the west holds back letting former soviet buffer states become NATO members there is no reason for an invasion, for Russia.
Understandable.
So why not guarantee to not let Ukraine become a NATO member?

Originally Posted by Catfish

So why not publicly declare that Ukraine will not become a NATO member?
This is the guarantee Putin wants he has publicly and more than once said this.

If western leaders want to appear united and strong and they cannot even make that statement, there is no further need for discussion.

Just about sums it all up for me

[Skybird]

Unfortunately Putin wants more, and would take such a declaration on the Ukraine as a sign of wekaness inviting him to puish for more. Its appeasement, and it will not work.


Russia has an aggressive military threat potential assemblked in the Kaliningrad enclave.


Putin has recently demanded that the Wets shozud, nto only give up the Ukraione, but also the Baltic states and all miluitrary engagement on soil of Eastenr European NATO members like Poland, Czech Republic.



Meanwhiole a helpless Biden vaguels hints at more of wehat has not worke dint he past: sanctions. For that he needs European full cooperaiton, else they will not work. Europeans are split and divided over this step. Putin knows that, and counts on Germany and France. Thats the Germany that opened more gas-dsitrubtion lines to Russia, leading Europe deeper into dependency like it has lead Europe into dependency from Turkey over migration issues. Thats the France that will not confront Germany over its gas policy, since in return France got what it wanted for itself: green nuclear energy licenses by the EU's central committee. If the US goes all in against a disobedient Europe not submitting to an American sanction regime, it will cost the European banks and economy dearly.



What we should do, is this:



Not react to Russian demands.


Silently not bringing the Ukraine into NATO, wihtout making a big tamtam about this. Just not doing it. But selling the Ukrainepotent weapons that would command the Russians to pay a very high price if invading the Ukraine.



Bringing NATO's - that means in the main: Europe's -combat capabilities into shape an dorder.


Fortifying the NATO's Eastenr borders: not ushign them further Eastward, but amassing defences , forces there.



Stationing new American tactcial nuclear missiles. It seems this currently is being mulled or is already done.



Cpounteirng Kaliningrad with building substantial strikign capabilites to take its hueg arsenals of msisiles, nuclear missiles and aircraft out.


The Russians always have undersotod just one language, and this language alone: strength. Try to communciate with them not from a position of own strength, and you have already llst - they will simply lie to you and push you against the wall.



Oh, and Norstream 2. I am realistic, and saw myself forced to drastically chnage my view of it. Two things should be done here: NS2 should not go into work anymore, and the existing pipelines thorugn the Ukraine and Poland should be taken down, too. I am not sure to what degree and how these gas deliveries can be replaced. We have to find ways.



Another argument why we should build nuclear powerplants. Germany's special wa yhere is a lonely way, an infantile way, a stupid way - and different to what the Germans hoped for, nobody follows them. Severla of its neighbours instead plan to go into nculeart energy, or to deepen their stand in nculear energy. Which in the future will save Germany's (and Austria's) electric future. Austria is as hypocritical, if not more, as Germany is: it buys tremedous ammounts of nuclear energy from its neighbours, but agitates extremely aggressively against the use of nuclear energy. Sawing off the legs of the chair one sits on...


In general: we should not move further towards Russia's borders. But we should not give one inch of ground and stop wanting to appease them at the same time. What Putin wants is a reastablishing of the status before 1989, even geographically. This is unacceptable. He wants to turn back time by over 30 years. We should neither honour nor reward this attempt in any form. But now that bubble.-Olaf in chancellor, any appeasement seems possible. It will be interesting to see how far the Greens' masochism will lead leading, Baerbocks and Schol'z positions are practically incompatible, but the chnacellor has the "Richtlinienkompetenz", so in theory this internal German powerstruggle already is decided: and Putin won.

[Aktungbby]

I'm no Winston...but R we talkin "Iron Curtain" rejuvenation here?!!9

[Skybird]

A red line we talk of. If that is an iron curtain, I'm fine with that.

NATO interceptors last year had to scramble some 270 times in alarm over the Baltic region. Thats on 3 of 4 days, on average. The biggest number since pre-1989. I think its high time to show them when enogh is enough and where their overstepping of said red lines will be answered not with volleys of words, but missiles. I am no longer convinced they know where that line is, or that there is any at all.

However I also wonder if Western politicians know either that there are red lines they should defend, no matter the cost.

Or that at least there should be.


Putin openly threatens several NATO members, namely the Baltic states. What else must happen before Europeans understand ? The Russian flag flying over Riga? Armoured spearheads appearing in Klaipeda?Polish general mobilization?

[Catfish]

Again, i do not think Putin is dumb. You have to see that he does not want an armed NATO state directly at Russia's borders.
Did the US accept an armed soviet state like Cuba at their borders back then?

Why not have neutral (or at least not NATO or Russian pact nations) between the blocs? A kind of security cordon everyone could live with? Why are you so keen of expanding the NATO eastwards?

After all this question led to the splitting of Germany after WW2. Russia wanted Germany to become a neutral state, the US was against it. No joke, look at the history.

So Putin threatens neighbour states not to become NATO allies, in that case he may act, and in this moment no one can prevent it when it comes to Ukraine. As long as they remain neutral or at least do not join any military pact there is no threat to either side.

So why not make some Realpolitik deal. Russia promises not to invade Ukraine, NATO promises to not further (Poland already IS a member) let direct neighbours of Russia (like Ukraine) into the NATO; a kind of guarantee of the status quo.
This might work as long as both sides are being serious.


Some more background, german:

https://www.tagesschau.de/faktenfind...uropa-101.html

^ same in english via Google translate:
https://www-tagesschau-de.translate....en&_x_tr_hl=de

[mapuc]

^ I think that would be a great idea.

However Russia wants more. they want NATO to leave Poland and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well.

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ng-2021-12-17/

Markus

[Skybird]

Not certain, but are you talking to me? If so, I made my points in the two posts before.

The neutrality belt sounds good, I argued for it myself in a way, and several times over the years, but I think it now is unrealistic. Putin wants more because he sees the chance to get more.

The US is shifting attention to the Pacific, and it lacks the ability (and has realised that) to be omnipresent just everywhere. The Middle East feels the fallout from that, and I expect it to become less loyal to the US over time therefore. Europe feels it, obviously. For regimes like Russia, Iran, Turkey, NKorea this is the time now to test the faiding power of the US in their interest spheres again and again, seeing how far now they can go. Its the reason why Iran has started to play tough against Europe's wanted mild-washing of nuclear things. The US is locking up increasingly in its conflict with China, and necessarily it needs to give room in former zones of interest, therefor. The more ressources it invests into its upcoming confrontation with China, the more these ressources must be taken from other global areas - they are not infinite, even if the US wants to make everbyody believe they are. The US can no longer defend all and everything. It just cannot be done. The US military already now is overstretched.

Europe must learn this, and it better learns it pronto.

Appeasing Russia has never worked in the past, and does not in the present. Wandel durch Handel never worked as well, not in Russia, not in Iran, not in Turkey, not in China. The German foreign policy is a totally collapsed desaster. The Russians only respect power and strength, and once they are somewhere, its incredibly difficult to get rid of them again.

Your desire for reasonability and rationals in all honours, Catfish, but thats just not what the Big Game is about. I wish it would be like that, too, it would suit my own rationals better, too. But I am realistic enough to see that things dont work that way. Because the leaderships are made not of Vulcans, but narcissists with psychopathic personality structures and feudal self-understanding. World politics is not so much a game of Chess, but Poker.

We should not push further East, indeed. But we must confront Russia'S ambition to push westwards by itself. In the Baltic. In the Kaliningrad enclave area. In the Ukraine. Else Russia will not have a pushing NATO at its borders, but NATO will have a pushing Russia on Europe's borders. Russia openly threatens the three small Baltic states, the Ukraine, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, all the former Sovjet Union vasalls should be be brought back home into the embrace of the Sovjet empire. Things should become what they have been before 1989. Putin has once said something like that the fall of the USSR was the biggest desaster world history has witnessed ever. Many Russians seem to share that view. You better take his words literally - he means it, and lives by it, and thus his drive to "correct" this mistake. Its a Restauration what he wants.

What Russian promises are worth you can see over the gas troubles currently. I have defended Russia'S rational interest long time myself and still say we must see things from their perspective if we want to forsee their actions, instead of demanding them to act by our own interests (which would be stupid by them), but I had to realise that the Russia of the present no longer follows the example it set for contract loyalties during the cold war (they always honoured their economic contract obligations, even at the height of the cold war), but has shown that it no longer minds to erode such contracts. I therefore was forced to alter my views of it, and take a much tougher stand now, including rejecting NS2. Russia wants to drive a wedge between North Amrica and Europe, and it wants to destablise Eurpopean sdtates and societies, by cyber atacks, by political and media campaigns, by estalbishing fifth columns and a network of pro-.Russian lobbyists and interfering with Western elections. As a matter of fact they already wage war against the West. And in the past we would have realised that and would have reacted and we would have a military war already as a consequence. But tired of world wars and degenrated as our cultural conetxts are, we instead fall back and want to hybernate in a state of submissive Chamberlainism.

Georgia and Ukraine cannot become NATO members, its stupid to poke the pencil into the Russian bear's eye this way. But we should sell them the military weapons they need to defend themselves against Russia, if they wish to buy such weapons and see the need to do so (and mind you, usually I say we should not think of arms and military itemsas legitimate traiding goods at all). And over the Baltic and the Kaliningrad enclace, we have no other choice than to become much more confronting and determined. Those are no "neutral states", but NATO member states. And if Russia overrolls the three small Baltic states in hybrid warfare like it has taken the Crimean, NATO lacks the means and political will to retake them. Therefore we shall not allow them to get lost in the first.



You will see that beefing up our combat readiness massively and setting a red line at the borders will keep the Russians away. Thats the language they understand and respect. They will go on parade on their side of the fence and will drum all bongos they have - but they will not attack if they think we mean it serious and if they see we have the capability to inflict seriosu wounds on them in case they go too far. - THAT would be Realpolitik as you asked for.


Instead not even European governments are united and can agree on anything related to Russia, only cheap phrases that everybody and all sides know mean little to nothing. Not to mention the rift between these Europeans, and the US. No wonder if Russia keeps pushing: the opportunity is cheap and inviting and promsing and ripe with chances.

[mapuc]

Skybird wrote

"but they will not attack if they think we mean it serious and if they see we have the capability to inflict serious wounds on them in case they go too far. - THAT would be Realpolitik as you asked for. "

One thing that you have a gun another thing is the will to use it and by following the news here I get the impression that EU and NATO hope that by threatening of economical sanction will make Putin think twice.

It wouldn't surprise me if NATO agree on some of Russia's terms.
(I hope I'm wrong)

Markus

[mapuc]

Found this passage in a Danish article I have translated and posted in this comment

"However, NATO and the United States have previously said they will not respond militarily again to a Russian attack on Ukraine"

https://ekstrabladet-dk.translate.go...en&_x_tr_hl=da

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Senior diplomats from the US and Russia are meeting in the Swiss city of Geneva for the first of a series of crunch talks aimed at defusing tension over Ukraine.

The stakes for these talks on Monday are high. But both sides hold wildly different expectations. The US and other Western powers want to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine.

But Russia wants to talk about its maximalist demands for Nato to retreat from eastern Europe. It's calling for Nato to pull its forces out of former Soviet countries, end any eastern expansion and rule out Ukraine joining the alliance.

Some US officials fear these demands are deliberately unrealistic, designed to be rejected and used as a pretext for military action. Other diplomats believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is aiming high to squeeze concessions out of a Western alliance that is willing to give ground to avoid war.

They say the Russian president is effectively demanding an end to Europe's post-Cold War security architecture and the establishment of a Russian "sphere of influence".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59935990