The CHN/ China thread

[Jimbuna]

Taiwan extends compulsory military service amid mounting tensions with China

Taiwan will extend its compulsory military service from four months to one year amid mounting military tensions with China, the island’s president has announced.

Under the plans due to come into effect in 2024, conscripts will undergo more intense training, including shooting exercises and combat instruction used by US forces. Conscripts will be tasked with guarding key infrastructure, enabling regular forces to respond more swiftly in the event of any attempt by China to invade.

The announcement of the change came after Taiwan’s defence ministry reported that 71 Chinese air force jets and drones had entered the island’s air defence identification zone within 24 hours on Monday – the largest reported incursion to date.

“As long as Taiwan is strong enough, it will be the home of democracy and freedom all over the world, and it will not become a battlefield,” President Tsai Ing-wen told a news conference after a national security council meeting. “Taiwan wants to tell the world that between democracy and dictatorship, we firmly believe in democracy. Between war and peace, we insist on peace. Let us show the courage and determination to protect our homeland and defend democracy.”

The defence authority also plans to raise the monthly wage of regular conscription soldiers from about NT$6,500 (US$211) to NT$26,307 (US$856), almost in line with the minimum wage.

Since 2013, Taiwan has required men over 18 to serve four months in the military, with the first five weeks in a basic training boot camp. The new plan will put mandatory recruits on eight-week basic training.

Chen Chi-mai, mayor of Kaohsiung city and the acting chairperson of the ruling Democratic Progressive party, told reporters on Tuesday that it was essential to strengthen national security, the official news agency CNA reported.

Taiwan has been gradually shifting from a conscript military to a volunteer-dominated professional force, but China’s growing assertiveness towards the island it claims as its own, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have prompted debate about how to boost defence.

Tsai said “a few things” had been learned from that war which have been incorporated into Taiwan’s defence reforms, and noted that Ukraine’s ability to hold off much larger Russian forces had given the international community time to render assistance.

Previous governments cut compulsory service for men from more than two years to four months to please younger voters during a period of easing tensions between Taipei and Beijing.

Taiwan’s efforts to bolster the readiness of its defence forces accelerated after the visit to the island from the US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, in August. China immediately staged military drills around Taiwan in response to Pelosi’s visit.

The de facto US embassy in Taiwan welcomed the announcement on conscription reform. “The United States’ commitment to Taiwan and steps Taiwan takes to enhance its self-defence capabilities contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and within the region,” the American Institute in Taiwan said.

A survey conducted by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation in December found that 73.2% of respondents were in favour of an extension to compulsory service.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, told the Guardian in an exclusive interview earlier this month that the Chinese military threat was “getting more serious than ever”, with a five-fold increase in warplane incursions into the island’s defence zone since 2020.

Wu said the drills conducted after Pelosi’s visit were also aimed at scaring off other governments which might support Taiwan.

As part of the efforts to ramp up the island’s combat strength, on Friday Tsai inaugurated new military facilities at an army base in the southern city of Kaohsiung, which she said offers “a better living environment” for military personnel, according to a statement released by the president office.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ons-with-china

[Skybird]

War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/09/p...-ml/index.html


Without wanting to be heartless or anything, but: the body count of lost servicemen on allied side sound unbelievably low to me.

[Dargo]

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would leave the island completely devastated, resulting in thousands of deaths among the Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese armies. Moreover, the conflict would have no winner: both the Chinese and American navies would come out of the confrontation badly battered. This is according to a series of large-scale war simulations by a U.S. think tank. The Washington, DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) institute says it has spent the past few months creating the largest ever series of war games of a possible conflict between China on the one hand and Taiwan and its American and Japanese allies on the other. This involved simulating no less than 24 scenarios of a Chinese invasion of the island in 2026. The results will be officially presented later today, but news channel CNN says it has already been able to see the results. Just about all the scenarios show that the Chinese attack attempt would fail and take a particularly high military toll on all warring parties. Even if the United States emerged victorious, its military would come out as violated as the defeated Chinese army.


Live; January 9, 2023, at 8:00 PM GMT+1

At least two American aircraft carriers would be left at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, as would 10 to 20 other ships. "The United States and Japan combined would lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel. Such losses would damage American dominance on the world stage for many years," the report said. Some 3,200 US military personnel could be killed defending Taiwan's territorial integrity in three weeks. On the other hand, China would also suffer heavy losses, and the invasion would fail and leave China's modern navy "in ruins." "The backbone of its amphibious force is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are captured." The report assumes 10,000 Chinese military personnel will be killed, 155 combat aircraft lost and 138 ships sunk. So the Chinese toll would be higher than the American one, yet this could also be just a pyrrhic victory for the U.S., "with a higher toll than 'defeated' China in the long run."

For the 24-million-strong island itself, a Chinese invasion would obviously have the greatest impact. "The Taiwanese army would not be destroyed, but it would be largely defeated. It would have to defend a damaged economy without electricity and basic services." About 3,500 Taiwanese soldiers would die, and all 26 frigates and destroyers would sink to the bottom of the sea. Finally, Japan would lose more than 100 fighter planes and 26 ships. Relations between China and Taiwan have been on edge again since then-U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island last year. That visit indicated an implicit recognition of Taiwan's independence, which aroused great anger in China. The People's Republic of China considers Taiwan - which calls itself the only official "Republic of China" - a renegade province and integral part of its territory, the so-called One China principle that says there is only one China in the world. While the United States does recognize the Chinese position, as its main ally, it is also legally obligated to provide military support to Taiwan to preserve its independence.

Whether it will ever actually come to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, only Chinese President Xi Jinping seems to know. He does not explicitly rule out the scenario, but many experts call it unlikely at this point. "The Chinese summit could also implement a strategy of diplomatic isolation, operations under the radar and economic strangulation against Taiwan," the CSIS report sounds. The experts also point out that Taiwan's geographical position does not allow for an "Ukraine scenario," referring to how the West is gradually providing that country with resources and weapons to defend itself. "Once the war starts, it would be impossible to send arms and supplies to Taiwan. Whatever Taiwan will try to defend itself with, it will only be possible with material that is already there at that time."

[Skybird]

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

[B][I][SIZE=2]


Without wanting to be heartless or anything, but: the body count of lost servicemen on allied side sound unbelievably low to me.

Yeah, I was also thinking that

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

Fine by me, only dunno how

[Jimbuna]

Threads merged.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ehem...

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...&postcount=392

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...249175&page=27

Lets merge threads.

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Threads merged.

Well lets really merge threads! https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=214616

Originally Posted by Me

If Ukraine is the left shoe; the right shoe Taiwan is bound to drop sooner or later...Both Putin and Xi are anxious to secure their respective legacies by destroying the old 'World order'. However, I note that even China is not immediately venturing into the "black hole of Kabul...vacated by both Russia and the United States.

[mapuc]

Everyone is saying the obvious like 2+2 equal 4.

Everyone take it for granted.

However who says USA and/or Japan would go to war against China-If they try to invade or retake Taiwan.

I myself say the chance is very little.

I would say to Xi:

It will cost you millions of dead Chinese soldiers and civilians if you try to take Taiwan with force. When it comes to USA and/or Japan you can expert massive military aids to Taiwan and other military and civilian help-They will not engage you directly.

There isn't a President in the Oval Office who want to be known as the one who killed hundrede of thousands American soldiers and civilians

There isn't a President in the Oval Office who want to known as the one who dragged USA down from being superpower to an almost third country.

I may be wrong, it is how I see it.

Markus

[ET2SN]

Marshalltown, Iowa .

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:
--------------------
Beijing knows exactly why Putin is not winning his war

Xi Jinping has closely followed the course of Putin's Ukraine invasion. He has made preparations - and unlike Russia, he would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

The question of whether an attack by Beijing on the island republic of Taiwan would play out similarly to Putin's attack on Ukraine is on the minds of strategists, military leaders and politicians around the world.

Is the Chinese army better prepared than the Russian? If attacked, can the Taiwanese defend themselves as well as the Ukrainian forces are doing right now? Can China's leader Xi, unlike Kremlin dictator Putin, succeed in a "blitz war"?

To answer these questions, it is helpful to remember February 2022. For Putin's attack was not a surprise, but prepared over weeks. The world watched as troops were moved to the border with Ukraine, as the Kremlin's rhetoric against the neighboring country intensified. At the time, people in the capitals of the free world believed that Putin was bluffing, that he would not actually follow through with an attack. This miscalculation must not be repeated in the case of Taiwan.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far

If Beijing were really serious about its threat of war, it would mean weeks of preparations that would be noticed outside the People's Republic. The economy would have to be converted by Beijing to war production. Troop movements would be detectable via satellite imagery. So the attack would certainly not be a surprise.

Xi Jinping, the commander-in-chief of his army (the Chinese army is subordinate to the Communist Party, not the state), has closely followed the course of the Ukraine invasion. In September, his ally Putin had to come up and answer Xi's "questions and concerns" regarding the failure of the Ukraine invasion to succeed. Beijing threw its full weight behind Putin's belligerence. Anything less than a Putin victory would be an embarrassment and a loss of face for Xi.

Beijing knows why Putin has not won the war so far: The defensive readiness of the Ukrainian army and civilian population, as well as the unity of the free world, have ensured that the Kremlin's aggression has been successfully repelled.
Kremlin chief Putin invites China's party leader Xi on state visit
Photo: dpa Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, speaks with Xi Jinping, president of China, during a video conference. Putin has invited Chinese leader Xi to Moscow for a state visit in the spring.

Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan

Xi has therefore been busy over the past eleven months, talking to co-dictators in Tehran and Pyongyang. The axis of evil from Moscow, through Beijing, North Korea and Iran has strengthened, with weapons going back and forth between them. Beijing is ensnaring more autocracies like Saudi Arabia to win them over and give them the opportunity to abandon their alliance with Washington in favor of the People's Republic at a crucial moment. Xi Jinping would not run out of bullets or drones in an attack on Taiwan.

Moreover, Beijing is trying massively to brace itself against possible sanctions that an attack on Taiwan would surely entail. Getting Saudi Arabia to do its oil business with Beijing in Chinese currency rather than U.S. dollars is as much a part of the security precautions as contracts for gas and oil supplies with the Taliban (which are also to be paid in Chinese currency). Even in Beijing, no one believes any longer that China's economy cannot be dealt with by sanctions, because the economy is in a multiple crisis due to Xi's ideological policies.

China will be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was

If the real estate sector, which accounts for about twenty percent of China's economic output, does indeed collapse, if economic growth continues to stagnate, and if even more loans Beijing has extended under its New Silk Road initiative default, sanctions by the free world could indeed deal a death blow to the Chinese economy and thus to the autocracy of Xi and his nomenklatura. Xi wants to be prepared against this in any case.

China will, that much is certain, be better prepared for its war of aggression than Putin was. But in the end, such a war will be decided on the battlefield. And these are indeed elementally different.

Ukraine is the largest country in Europe, Taiwan a small island. Landing on its shores would be anything but child's play for the Chinese navy and could end the invasion before it even began. The demise of the Armada in the 21st century. But Beijing could easily seal off the island from the rest of the world. A foretaste of this was provided by the blockade of Taiwan in the summer of 2022 after U.S. politician Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei.

Both the political leadership and the civilian population and army of Ukraine, like the political leaders in the free world, were a good deal ahead of Moscow at the end of February 2022. However, no one can rest on that. For Taiwan to remain a free country, all those who would be involved in a potential war or work to prevent it from happening in the first place must be one step ahead of Beijing.
---------------------------

[Jimbuna]

'Seriously doubt' imminent invasion of Taiwan by China -Pentagon chief

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Wednesday he seriously doubted that ramped up Chinese military activities near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.

"We've seen increased aerial activity in the straits, we've seen increased surface vessel activity around Taiwan," Austin said during a press conference alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and their Japanese counterparts.

"But whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, you know, I seriously doubt that," Austin said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ef-2023-01-11/

[ET2SN]

China has the hardware and the troops, the problem is that neither have been fully tested in battle.

Running drills and exercises is great. Unfortunately, the plans hit the fan when the real shooting starts.

I would get really concerned about Taiwan after China gets itself dragged into a brushfire war or two. There's no other way to build that kind of experience.

[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/a...-ml/index.html

^This. And strangely I almolst never read a reflecting on that the US navy is engaged globally and thus its forces are thinned out even further in location, while the Chinese amass their numerically already superior forces directly in their intended warzone. Replenishment bases in Japan will be taken care of by the Chinese, and then its damn long resupply routes for the Americans.

I dont give too much for that recent wargame that was reported about two weeks ago. I expect high losses for China and the US and Taiwan and Japan alike - and a Chinese victory nevertheless. Where victory cpoudl also0 mean the destruction of Taiwanese chip production so that the world can not get its hands on it.

And an obliterated Taiwan with a totally bombed-out industry with collapsed chip production and unimaginable consequences for the global economy.

The Chinese watch the Russians in Ukraine, and will learn from it. Their attack will come much harder, and much better prepared, with much greater stockpiles of ammo and missiles, and much more autarky from global markets and smaller vulnerability to economic and financial sanctions.