Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

I just copied the headlines and the small text from this Danish article
(Because rest of the article was about Denmarks contribution to Ukraine)

Warns the West: Fears direct superpower conflict
Russia is getting pretty tired of the massive arms shipments to Ukraine

For me it means these weapon supply have an effect

Markus.

[August]

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1...5Es1_&ref_url=

[Skybird]

That did not last long... German government already has relativised its announcements again.


Foreign minister Baerbock gets quoted with her speech in the parliament were she pointed out that the announced deliveries of MARS-2 missile batteries and IRIS-T air defences "will take time" and actually are several months away.



In the same parliamentary debate, Bubble-Olaf accused the leader of the opposition, Friedrich Merz, "to make plenty of words while saying nothing". Oh the involuntary irony...

[Skybird]

Russia takes over Severodonetsk, the Ukrainian brigade that defended there withdraws.


This sounds like a Russian victory, but possibly it only sounds that way. The Russians had to expend enormous numerical forces to achieve this, which demonstrates the poor fighting ability of the Russian formations. Accordingly, many of the participating formations are now exhausted. The withdrawal of the Ukrainians is in fact also a defeat of the Russians, because their goal should have been to encircle and destroy the Urkainian formations. This did not succeed. The tactical withdrawal of the Ukrainians allowed them to shorten the front and at the same time free up forces that can now support counterattacks elsewhere, while the Russians had to withdraw large forces from there to support the advance on Severodonetsk. Stratgeically, the city is not even that important to Ukraine. The fact that they were able to successfully repatriate some of their most experienced and strongest fighting units before the Russians could wipe them out, and by then they were able to really get on the Russians' nerves and thin them out further - that may weigh more heavily.


Counterattack elsewhere and faster than the Russians can regroup, would be the motto now. I would not be surprised to see something like that happen in the near future. And one thing has become clear: the Russians still run their formations according to slow, clumsy Soviet doctrine - the Ukrainians have long since left this doctrine behind and operate with priority on mobility, agility and speed, following NATO standards. So they have advantages when it comes to moving forces out of Severodonetsk and deploying them elsewhere. They will be able to do that faster than the Russians.

[mapuc]

Russia is accusing USA for "Adding fuel to the fire" by sending these long range rockets to Ukraine.

Well who started this huge fire ??

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Russia is accusing USA for "Adding fuel to the fire" by sending these long range rockets to Ukraine.

Well who started this huge fire ??

Markus

Germany. We sent them campfirelighters from Bundeswehr stocks early on, together with those now infamous helmets.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's army is trying to break Ukraine's defence in the eastern region from all directions, Luhansk leader Serhiy Haidai says.

Fighting is raging in the key city of Severodonetsk, which is now largely under the control of Russian troops.

Taking Severodonetsk would mean Russia controls almost all of Luhansk, in the eastern Donbas region.

On Wednesday Russia criticised US plans to send more advanced artillery systems to Ukraine, accusing Washington of "adding fuel to the fire"

President Joe Biden said the goal was to help Ukraine defend itself and Ukraine's President Zelensky said he had "no intention" of attacking Russia.

Ukraine's football team beat Scotland in Glasgow and will now play Wales for a place in the World Cup in Qatar.

The match had been originally planned for March but was postponed after Russia's invasion of the country.

[Jimbuna]

EU ban on Russian oil imports 'self-destructive' - Russia

Russia has warned that the EU's decision to partially phase out Russian oilis a "self-destructive" step that could backfire on the bloc.

On Monday, EU member states said 90% of oil imports would be cut by the end of this year, as part of further sanctions to punish Moscow for invading Ukraine.

But Russia's foreign ministry says the move is "highly likely to provoke further price increases, destabilise energy markets, and disrupt supply chains".

Moscow has also insisted it will not sell its oil at a loss. At a press briefing, the Kremlin said even if demand fell in one part of the world, it would increase in another - and Russian flows would be redirected accordingly.

Oil purchases from Russia by India - the world's third-largest consumer of oil - have more than doubled from last year, as India takes advantage of discounted prices.

However, European Council chief Charles Michel argues the EU-wide ban will cut off a huge source of financing for the Russian war machine, putting pressure on Moscow to agree a diplomatic solution and bring the invasion to an end.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

The way they implement this "embargo" indeed is made to backfire. When a product, good, commodity becomne srare, prices go u. They annoucned they will increased the shortage in energy in 7 months form now on, additonal to the very serious monetarian and economic crisis we already are i. The prices will go up steeply, i have little doubt.



And Putin's best man in Europe, Orban, already tries to torpedoe the slow compromise the eU reached with him just recently by now putting it in doubt again if he does not get another detail he demands, that is that there shall be no sanctiuonsing of Russia's religious war propagandist Kyrill.



Time is working for Russia here, the cracks and gaps in the EU's unity front are undeniable and will widen the more time passes by. Whether it will hold until the war ends or not depends on how long the war will last in the end. Here is anothe rmotive why the EU is likely to accept a dictated peace by Russia, than the ukriane, or America. It wants to bring the showact to an end before it has the chance to see the stage collapsing.

[MaDef]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Germany. We sent them campfirelighters from Bundeswehr stocks early on, together with those now infamous helmets.

Well then, Germany has done their part for Ukrainian morale, Her soldiers can now shave with hot water while in the field.

[August]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

If they follow the historical pattern they will be blown out of the water when they reach Sevastopol.

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


"There is no security in Europe against Russia, but only with it. Until February 24, 2022, this mantra, which had been repeated at every podium for years, was the consensus: somehow we had to deal with Russia, not "lose" it, despite its violations of human rights and international law. Since February 24, there has been little sign of this. A broad majority of Germans backs Ukraine and is happy about its military successes.

Countless videos of Ukrainian peasants towing Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, shootdowns of Russian helicopters and songs about the Turkish Bayraktar drone are circulating on social networks. After the CNN and Al-Jazeera effect, now the Twitter effect is bringing the war not to our living rooms, but to our smartphones.

We see what we want to see: military successes by Kiev and a weakening war machine by Moscow driven by hubris and brutality. With this comes the hope that the brave Ukrainians will soon win this battle, peace will return, and politics can turn to other things again.

It is striking that the Bundeswehr and NATO do not seem to have a clear picture of the situation of the Ukrainian armed forces. Some people think they know more about the Russians. The latest fighting in the Donbass nevertheless suggests that Kiev's capabilities should not be overestimated. Despite rapid deliveries of military supplies from the U.S. and the U.K. and hesitant assistance from the EU, Russia has been able to score successes in recent days.

Certainly, the terrain gains are still quite modest, and the Ukrainian army was again able to show some local successes outside Kharkiv and near Kherson, which were widely reported in the media. Nevertheless, it is clear that the two People's Republics will soon be entirely occupied by Russia.

Above all, the reconquest of the occupied territories hardly seems possible in the foreseeable future. After all, beyond the intensively discussed Russian problems with the morale of its own units, the logistical deficiencies or, in many cases, the lack of military professionalism, the Ukrainian problems should not be disregarded.

Ukrainian casualties are also on the rise. Allegedly, they amount to about half of the Russian ones, which would still be considerable. Russian fire superiority is overwhelming in many places, gasoline reserves are precarious, the civilian population is feeling the war more and more acutely, ammunition for Soviet- and Russian-made weapons supplied by Western countries is running out.

Many battle-hardened soldiers, officers, and entire staffs are wounded, fallen, or threatened with encirclement in the Donbass. Odessa remains at risk, and the possibility of a second front reopening in the north cannot be ruled out.

As with the oft-used comparison to the Finnish resistance to the Soviet Union in 1939/40, one can currently see that even a highly motivated defender against a material superiority will eventually reach its limits - and in doubt can only defend, but not conduct operational counterattacks.

What follows from this military situation? It would be foolish to try to precisely predict the course of a war. But at least this much can be predicted, that at the moment a change of the "facts" created since 2014 in violation of international law would only be realistic by accepting a nuclear or at least a "big" war. Putin will never give up Crimea and the Donbass and will defend them by all means if necessary.

In Berlin and in the West, people invoke the European peace order and the international rules of the game that have been agreed upon. That is right. We all want to live in a rules-based world in which the rights of small states and international law are respected. Unfortunately, the opposite is often the case.

At present, the question arises whether this peace order could not be enforced unilaterally and only against smaller states that do not possess nuclear weapons, for example, against Yugoslavia, and whether this order is being subjected to a reality shock by Great Russian nationalism.

The massive sanctions and the exclusion of Russia from the round of G-8 states are important means of making clear to Moscow the consequences of its annexation wars. The costs of the war will weaken Russia for years to come, and they will have political consequences-but they are unlikely to cause it to withdraw from the occupied territories.

When Willy Brandt said, in the course of the New Ostpolitik, that in establishing a new European peace order one must of necessity start from the realities, there was great indignation. The de facto recognition of the GDR and the Soviet oppression of the East Central European states was a red rag to many.

Brandt's policy aimed at medium-term change through the radiance of democracy. This policy was always backed up by NATO's military deterrent potential - this second side of the coin was criminally neglected by the Federal Republic and many Europeans after 1990. Moreover, at the time of the East-West conflict, the Soviet Union was deliberately weakened in other regions of the world.
Please end crises quickly

There is no question of this today either: from Mali to Syria to the Arctic, Germany (and the EU) is leaving the field to Russia. Crises are viewed in isolation, wanting to end them quickly because politicians perceive them as "vote-less" and unpleasant. Thus, the tableau is shifting more and more in favor of the illiberals who despise our pluralistic societies.

Ukraine must not lose the war. So far, so good. But those who are euphoric about Henry Kissinger's territorial cession demands, who instead remain entrenched in the heroic position of "never negotiate" and cling to maximum demands, must empower Ukraine to achieve these goals. In concrete terms, this means that a great deal of heavy and modern military equipment must be delivered in a timely manner.

However, the ring swap pose - the unkept promise to provide old German equipment to the East-Central European states that delivered their old Soviet weapons to Ukraine - does not suggest that offensive operations by Ukraine are really wanted in Berlin, and the U.S. has not yet taken the necessary steps to do so either. Many are now hoping for the return of diplomacy: But does Putin even want to negotiate, and what would his promises be worth? Peace does not seem to be achievable in the foreseeable future, rather a military cease-fire.

But this also means that territorial cessions are a probability and will have to be accepted for the time being. This is not appeasement, nor will Ukraine be sacrificed, and it is not an expression of misunderstood love for Russia, but an insight into realities that may look different again in the medium and long term.

The Ukrainian leadership is showing both a willingness to negotiate and a willingness to fight. But it is on the drip of the U.S., and a look at history shows the danger that the Ukrainians could suffer the same fate as the Kurds, for example: A partner repeatedly dropped in a cynical manner. We should also remember the images of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

The will of the United States to engage in Ukraine will be finite. It should not be forgotten that Washington's strategic focus remains on China, and for that reason alone it will not risk a direct war with Russia. All the less so when it becomes clear how little the Europeans - Germany in the lead - are willing to do for their own security.

Finland's and Sweden's desire to join NATO must therefore also be seen as a vote of no confidence in the EU, which is not living up to its claim to be a power that shapes foreign policy. Security in Europe remains unthinkable without the USA and thus without NATO. Meanwhile, the Federal Republic of Germany is consolidating its role as an unreliable partner: it hesitates and dithers, obstructs a common Western stance, entangles itself in abstruse chains of argumentation and contradictory statements. Afghanistan, Libya and Syria send their regards. In this sense, Olaf Scholz is Angela Merkel's sorcerer's apprentice.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by August

If they follow the historical pattern they will be blown out of the water when they reach Sevastopol.

Yes the Ukrainian have several type of ASM now. Their own Neptun. Harpoon From Denmark and naval target robot Robot 17 system from Sweden.

Markus