Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Russia is estimated to currently produce 250,000 shells per month, or 3 million per year. Tendecny growign, since they still have the capacity to boost this production level - and they use it.



Also, Ukraine does not destroy Russian war production sites in Russia. But Russia systematically decimates such factories in Ukraine, plus the energy grid.


Russia still outproduces Ukraine in terms of drones and missiles. They also send more fresh armoured vehicles of all kinds than Ukraine can. The brigades Ukraine now tries to freshly build, around 5 of these, are infantry brigades, at best partially motorized infantry brigades.

Production in Russia is being restrained by the shortage of workers, not by a lack of finances, Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia's central bank, said on Monday. The economy is continuing to demonstrate impressive growth rates (yeah sure), Nabiullina said, addressing lawmakers in the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament. Russia faced a shortfall of nearly 5 million workers in 2023, which is already impeding economic growth. Will take those production figures with a grain of salt and with every announcement of a mobilisation about a million leave Russia so that shortage will only go up.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Production in Russia is being restrained by the shortage of workers, not by a lack of finances, Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia's central bank, said on Monday. The economy is continuing to demonstrate impressive growth rates, Nabiullina said, addressing lawmakers in the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament. Russia faced a shortfall of nearly 5 million workers in 2023, which is already impeding economic growth. Will take those production figures with a grain of salt and with every announcement of a mobilisation about a million leave Russia so that shortage will only go up.

Well I guess they gonna take advantage of their women-Like they did during WWII.

Secondly
Money isn't the issue here, but the lack of shells. Yes Latvia found 2.5 million shells together with an another country.

I don't know how many thousands shells is being used on a daily basis by the Ukrainians. Let say 30.000 or is this to high ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Well I guess they gonna take advantage of their women-Like they did during WWII.

Secondly
Money isn't the issue here, but the lack of shells. Yes Latvia found 2.5 million shells together with an another country.

I don't know how many thousands shells is being used on a daily basis by the Ukrainians. Let say 30.000 or is this to high ?

Markus

It is not only men leaving Russia, women also Russia needs 5 million skilled labourers for normal production this is in the now they're training children now they can use outside labourers, but those are not skilled to prevent the economy crashing and this Russia is no soviet Russia it is a mafia Russia do not think they can organize/control like the soviets did. Think 30,000 at the moment is too high, know ammo is arriving and in the coming weeks it will be more. Ukraine does not use those on the moment they stock them for the upcoming Russian offensive, they use it only on heavy armour other vehicles are damaged/destroyed by drones. What Ukraine damage/destroy on the moment, Russia stock (of useful equipment) will be empty by mid 2025 (18–20 months) Russia losses more tanks per month then they can produce per month. Ukraine faced worse times in summer 2022 where the ratio of shells was worse for them those glide bombs are a greater threat on the moment Russia adjusted them, and they destroy more than shells can do also Russia has a lot of these glide bombs only answer would be more patriot batteries and F-16s

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Production in Russia is being restrained by the shortage of workers, not by a lack of finances, Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia's central bank, said on Monday. The economy is continuing to demonstrate impressive growth rates (yeah sure), Nabiullina said, addressing lawmakers in the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament. Russia faced a shortfall of nearly 5 million workers in 2023, which is already impeding economic growth. Will take those production figures with a grain of salt and with every announcement of a mobilisation about a million leave Russia so that shortage will only go up.

Well, the events at all fronts support Russian claims of shell production so far. They advance, slowly, but they advance. And they outgun the Ukrainians, on the ground and in the air. A Russian summer offensive is most expected.


Ukrainian infrastructure, production and energy is much worse off now than it was last year in April, and last year in April it was wors eoff than in April the year before. This is what our media notoriously ignore, that Ukraine's industrial status is getting constantly degraded. (And with that its economic survivability after the current hot phase of the war). Its not as if they repair the damage and then everything is back to square one. You never repair all what was broken, some damage remains - and these residual damages add up. And by that allowing follow-on attacks to cause even bigger damages that must be repaired with less and lesser ressources.


I fear the Russian breath can - by far - outlast that of the Ukrainians. Add to this that Russia sinc elong time now is in war procutuon mode. The Wets still is not. And does nto even see a reason it should want that. Green deal madness, climate resdistribution frenzies and mass migration payment are so much more important. The left-wing elite won't let a banal Russian war of aggression and further threats of war spoil their do-gooder attitude!

[Skybird]

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-says-e...tly/a-68809455


Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned on Saturday that the situation on the eastern front had "deteriorated significantly" in recent days.
(...)
"This is primarily due to a significant intensification of the enemy's offensive after the presidential elections in Russia," he said, adding that decisions were "made to strengthen the most problematic defense areas with electronic warfare and air defense." Syrsky then warned that Ukraine urgently needs to achieve technical superiority over Russian forces via the use of high-tech weapons.
"Only this will enable us to defeat a larger enemy and create conditions for seizing the strategic initiative," he said.

[Jimbuna]

Ukraine could face defeat in 2024. Here's how that might look

The former commander of the UK's Joint Forces Command has warned that Ukraine could face defeat by Russia in 2024.

General Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC there is "a serious risk" of Ukraine losing the war this year.

The reason, he says, is "because Ukraine may come to feel it can't win".

"And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer, just to defend the indefensible?"

Ukraine is not yet at that point.

But its forces are running critically low on ammunition, troops and air defences. Its much-heralded counter-offensive last year failed to dislodge the Russians from ground they had seized and now Moscow is gearing up for a summer offensive.

So what will that look like and what are its likely strategic objectives?

"The shape of the Russian offensive that's going to come is pretty clear," says Gen Barrons.

"We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons."

These include the FAB glide bomb, an adapted Soviet-era "dumb bomb" fitted with fins, GPS guidance and 1500kg of high explosive, that is wreaking havoc on Ukrainian defences.

"At some point this summer," says Gen Barrons, "we expect to see a major Russian offensive, with the intent of doing more than smash forward with small gains to perhaps try and break through the Ukrainian lines.

"And if that happens we would run the risk of Russian forces breaking through and then exploiting into areas of Ukraine where the Ukrainian armed forces cannot stop them."

But where?

Last year the Russians knew exactly where Ukraine was likely to attack - from the direction of Zaporizhzhia south towards the Sea of Azov. They planned accordingly and successfully blunted Ukraine's advance.

Now the boot is on the other foot as Russia masses its troops and keeps Kyiv guessing where it is going to attack next.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68778338

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

If Russia 'wins' I see an all-out war within the next decade, also initated by Russia/Putin.
It really looks like the world prepares for it, prices are rising like crazy, especially the resource markets.
Usually bronze/brass and other metal values fall a bit when gold rises, now it is all going up and breaking century-old records.

Does Scholz think Germany would be spared just because he hesitates to send some Taurus missiles now?

[Skybird]

Bubble-Olaf is a hypnotized rabbit staring paralyzed at the Cobra above him. He just do not see ihmself like that. He seems himself as the snake charmer giving pedagogical lectures to the reptile, cinvincing it that it must be reaosnable, and kind, and play by the rules, because a rabbit's way is more civilized, and thus superior in charm, intellect and ratio - ideal precondition to reedcuate others on how to be sensible and reasonable.



And what means "if the war ends" in Ukraine? It should be clear what Russia really wants: it wants to end the existence of Ukraine, and it wants all of Ukraine for itself, not just as another, different, added part of Russia, but as indistinguishable Russia itself.


I linked to the secret paper of the orthodox church, which is led by a former KGB/FSB agent. It openly spoke of that this "holy Russian war" has begun 2014.



These unworldly nutcases in Europe will be rubbing their eyes.

[mapuc]

The prospect of a Ukrainian defeat makes me sad to say the least - I was always hoping the Russians would get a proper slap on the fingers. But it looks like Putin is getting away with his sleazy actions which makes me even more sad.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Putin issues chilling new WW3 warning after successful test of experimental nuclear missile

Vladimir Putin appears to have issued a new warning to the West as chilling footage emerged of suspected nuclear missile testing.

Clips show the mystery intercontinental ballistic launch from the Kapustin Yar test range in Astrakhan region of Russia. The Russian defence ministry meanwhile has refused to disclose the type of wepon, but that it was launched from a mobile ground-based missile system.

The launch was carried out as part of a state testing programme of future missile systems, and those in service, at a time of high tension between Russia and the West over Ukraine. “The launch objectives were completed in full,” Kremlin officials said, without giving more detail.

A launch on the same day one year ago was believed to be a test of a new version of Putin’s Topol range - known for now as Topol-ME. Residents of Astrakhan, Dagestan and Volgograd regions noticed unusual white traces in the sky.

‌The launch came late on 12 April - which Russia marks as Cosmonautics Day, commemorating the day in 1961 when Yury Gagarin made the world ’s first-ever space flight. The mystery missile in the new launch is not believed to be the Sarmat - or Satan-2 - which appears to be dogged by testing delays.

This is destined to be the largest missile in Putin’s nuclear arsenal, described as an “unstoppable” apocalypse 208-ton intercontinental silo-launched 15,880mph weapon, the size of a 14-storey tower block. Before properly going into service it is expected to be tested over the South Pole. Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported last month: “The Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant is experiencing a serious shortage of electronic components….for production of strategic missiles.

‌“The electronics of the new RS 28 [Sarmat] missile system are largely of foreign origin and, due to sanctions, [they] are experiencing a serious shortage. Now all efforts are being made to somehow correct the situation with the supply of sanctioned electronics.”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...2ad3cea9&ei=12

[Dargo]

The Big Oil behind America’s criticism of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries

Mykhailo Honchar, a Ukrainian energy analyst, contends that Defense Secretary Austin’s warnings against striking Russian refineries reveal the Kremlin’s influence on US policy through oil giants like Chevron, which heavily invests in Kazakhstan’s oil fields.

The shifting sands of US consensus
The US has long been divided on the issue of Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries. While the State Department was split, the Pentagon and prominent American generals considered the attacks to be legitimate from a military perspective. However, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin now suggests that the impact of these strikes on global energy markets should be taken into account. According to Mykhailo Honchar, the real issue at hand is the increase in American gasoline prices. However, he argues that the problem does not lie in Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries but rather in US policy in the Middle East. For several months, the US-led coalition has struggled to deal with the Houthis in Yemen, whose attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea have forced them to use longer and more expensive routes. “Crude oil and fuel markets are different. Oil is not poured into tanks; only its refined products – diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel – are. Therefore, Austin’s assertion is absurd. He is shifting the blame to Ukraine due to the Pentagon’s inability to put an end to the Houthis,” Honchar told Euromaidan Press... https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/...an-refineries/

[Dargo]

In France, the building of a new gunpowder production line is started

In the French city of Bergerac, the building of a new line for the production of gunpowder for the needs of the EU and Ukraine has begun.

...

The new production line of the plant should begin work in early 2025, and almost immediately the first “fruits” of its production should be received by the Ukrainian army. The plant was created during the First World War, and since 2023 it has again become strategic for the French state and, in addition, for the entire European military industry. French manufacturers expect to produce 1,200 tons of gunpowder for shells per year... https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-france-...ne-is-started/

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

In France, the building of a new gunpowder production line is started

In the French city of Bergerac, the building of a new line for the production of gunpowder for the needs of the EU and Ukraine has begun.

...

The new production line of the plant should begin work in early 2025, and almost immediately the first “fruits” of its production should be received by the Ukrainian army. The plant was created during the First World War, and since 2023 it has again become strategic for the French state and, in addition, for the entire European military industry. French manufacturers expect to produce 1,200 tons of gunpowder for shells per year... https://mil.in.ua/en/news/in-france-...ne-is-started/

Sounds good indeed, however isn't a tad to late ?
If they bad news are true or half true, then the war could be over before the end of this year.
Personally I hope it isn't true at all.

Markus