The CHN/ China thread

[Skybird]

They will NOT open fire, but do close fly-bys, or get very close to "bullying range". Firing shots at a plane with a high ranking representative of the American parliamentary system aboard would be nothing but an act of war, a war declaration, imo.

They would try to force the plane to turn away, or enforce landing at one of their bases, threatening to fire.


But really firing? I think not even the Chinese are that insane. Not yet at least.

[Onkel Neal]

You think Russia's senseless invasion of Ukraine was bad, get ready for China to rock your world.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/o...an-pelosi.html

The United States and China are on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s ambitions have risen along with its military power and it may soon be capable of seizing democratically ruled Taiwan — even in a fight with the United States. President Xi Jinping is hoping to get an unprecedented third term later this fall and cannot afford to appear weak. He has been increasing pressure on Taiwan and apparently believes the United States is abandoning its circumspection about Taiwan’s status and may soon formally back the island’s independence.

At the same time, longstanding U.S. “strategic ambiguity” has given way to strategic confusion. President Biden’s misstatements on Taiwan are undermining the carefully devised policy that has kept the peace for decades. He has repeatedly said that the United States has a commitment to defend Taiwan. Last November, Mr. Biden remarked that Taiwan is “independent.” U.S.-Taiwan official exchanges, military cooperation and U.S. warship transits of the Taiwan Strait that were once kept under wraps are being made public.

A single spark could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates to military conflict. Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could provide it.

The House speaker is said to be planning a stop in Taiwan as part of a trip through Asia. Ms. Pelosi and her advisers may think this would have a stabilizing effect: Many in Washington believe that strong demonstrations of U.S. commitment to Taiwan will dissuade China from risking a military adventure.

But at this moment, a visit by Ms. Pelosi to Taiwan could instead provoke a forceful Chinese response.

China considers Taiwan part of its sovereign territory and reacts furiously when U.S. politicians travel there. A visit by Ms. Pelosi would take this to another level. She would be the highest-ranking U.S. visitor since another House speaker, Newt Gingrich, in 1997.


Ms. Pelosi is also loathed in China for pressing Beijing on human rights. Images of her alighting in Taiwan would be seen in China as a serious provocation.

Mr. Xi, who, like his predecessors, has repeatedly stressed that China will someday reunify Taiwan with the mainland, may take big risks to defend a perceived infringement on China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Beijing has warned that its military will not sit idly by if the trip goes ahead.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-s...arnings-2022-8

A US carrier and a pair of ships carrying F-35 stealth fighters are operating near Taiwan amid Chinese warnings

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

They will NOT open fire, but do close fly-bys, or get very close to "bullying range". Firing shots at a plane with a high ranking representative of the American parliamentary system aboard would be nothing but an act of war, a war declaration, imo.

They would try to force the plane to turn away, or enforce landing at one of their bases, threatening to fire.


But really firing? I think not even the Chinese are that insane. Not yet at least.

My imagination sometimes runs away with me..Secondly I didn't say China would fire directly at the plane-But beside it-To make it change course.

Yea it would most likely be as you wrote-Close fly-by or...

I still say it still depends on who's going to blink first and I say USA.
Biden will call Pelosi and ask/Demand her to skib any plans on visiting Taiwan.

The last state she will visit will be South Korea and thereafter she will be heading homeward.

Markus

[Jeff-Groves]

I hope they blow the Plane outta the Sky.

[mapuc]

It's not the first time some high ranked politician from USA visit Taiwan

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...rt-2021-11-25/

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Biden will call Pelosi and ask/Demand her to skib any plans on visiting Taiwan.

She is old. The trip already got delayed from February I think. And its her last term, she leaves in a few months.

Now or never.

I think its not bad that she may force Biden to clearly position himself without that strategic ambiguity BS - because what else could he do if the Chinese overreact? Kneel and say "we're sorry, we do it never again, promised"?

Like the Russians, the Chinese in recent years showed they understand only one language: that of force. They bullied practically all their neighbours in the air and on the seas, claim international waters, steal fishing grounds in other nation's territorial waters, and so forth. They always dose it such that just so the US would not react - just so... That way many small steps of advancing on the enemy and at his cost have been collected, combining to a by now impressively massive advance. And the US has done nothing, as they calculated.


And anyone one remembering the recce plane incident around one and a half decade ago when the American plane had to declare an emergency landing...?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

She is old. The trip already got delayed from February I think. And its her last term, she leaves in a few months.

Now or never.

I think its not bad that she may force Biden to clearly position himself without that strategic ambiguity BS - because what else could he do if the Chinese overreact? Kneel and say "we're sorry, we do it never again, promised"?

Like the Russians, the Chinese in recent years showed they understand only one language: that of force. They bullied practically all their neighbours in the air and on the seas, claim international waters, steal fishing grounds in other nation's territorial waters, and so forth. They always dose it such that just so the US would not react - just so... That way many small steps of advancing on the enemy and at his cost have been collected, combining to a by now impressively massive advance. And the US has done nothing, as they calculated.


And anyone one remembering the recce plane incident around one and a half decade ago when the American plane had to declare an emergency landing...?

My comments so far has mostly been based on what you wrote on the page before-

Where you wrote
"the US is not really capable or determined to defend Taiwan, I say since years that I would take an American naval victory not for granted even if the war would take place"

And I replied with
Top leaders and top politician in USA know this too.

This is why I'm convince USA will blink first to avoid any escalation-Yes they have a Carrier in the strait of Taiwan-But that's only showing off.

What I may add to our discussion
Can or will Biden do it-Prevent Pelosi from visiting Taiwan ?

Edit
You guys knows a lot more than I do when it comes to geopolitical and military. I can only write from what you have written and what I read and hear in the news and adding some personal belief.
End Edit

Markus

[Skybird]

I am no educated expert either, markus, so do not take my words as the final argument, I can be wrong, too. I only try to make sense of a chaotic world as best as I can, basing on patterns shown in the past. But in the question of Russian gas and Germany and Nordstream 2 I had my brain in freezing mode like so many others, too, so...

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird. If it becomes to chaotic in the news or in the world - Which I don't like so I close myself into some game and play games like ETS2 or ATS.

I have fear and hopes.

Hope both side will come to their senses before it escalate further.

I have mostly fear it may turn ugly within in weeks to come.

If it does-There's nothing I can do about it and I have other things to worry about than what to stone age person are up to.

Oh maybe not the correct place but this is about China and most of you know about DCS Digital Combat Simulation-Some guys who call them self Grim Reapers have made a 4 part series(The first 4 at top)

Taiwan isn't on the DCS map. so they have used Cyprus as Taiwan

First part: Could Taiwan Survive An Aerial First Strike By China? (WarGames 1a)
Second part: Could Taiwan Survive A Second Strike By China? (WarGames 1b)
Third part: Could Taiwan Survive A Third Strike By China? (WarGames 1c)
Fourth part: Could Taiwan Survive A fourth Strike By China? (WarGames 1d)

I did not put up link to each of these video.

Markus

[Skybird]

There is an alternative attack scenario for China that surprisingly gets little talked about. Instead of frontally attacking it and trying to bomb it into oblivion or invade it across the strait of Taiwan, it could establish a maritime and aerial blockade around the island. That would make it impossible for the US to bring in weapon deliveries, no matter whether "strategic ambigouty" means that Washington plans to directly fight in a war, or just to sell arms and give intel support to Taiwan like it does with Ukraine now. Isolating and strangling the island's economy might be the thing to expect. It would economically suffocate Taiwan if no improts go in and no exports go mout.


For Europe, it would be crippling, and for the US being a majort economic impact event, too.

[Catfish]

A blockade of a sovereign state (whatever China thinks about this, or Russia about Crimea) is a declaration of war.
Ok I doubt Xi Jin Ping will make this a "peaceful reunion", but with all the products, dependencies and international trade going on with Taiwan, will the world just sit back and do nothing?

[Skybird]

It does not matter either if they attack Taiwan directly, or blockade it. The onyl quesiton is whzat brings China closer to its goal to getb Taiwan for the lower costs to its own forces.


Andf the world? The only foreogn forc ein the region capable to really do about it, is the US, not France, not Britain. Is it easier for the US to fight a bloackde or to prevent in vading troops carriers crossing the straits under heavy missile and aerial protection?


And then there will be those loonies arguing that a blockade is no war and that we should do nothing to provoke China.



If China finds it cheaper to strnagle Taiwian by bloackde, why wouldnt it do it? Note, most nations on the globe by now are ANTI-West, not pro-West. We now have the strongest anti-Western block in international politics there ever has been. Democrcies are in decline. Autocracies are on the rise. Existing democracies in the West increasingly are under attack from within. The old world order from twenty years ago or even just ten years ago, is no more.


And now we also have to deal with inflation that we have created ourselves. It still gets underestimated, its unbelievable.

[mapuc]

Was curious to know when Nancy Pelosi would land/visit Taiwan(Taipei)

Pelosi is expected to arrive at 10:20 p.m. local time via private plane at Songshan Airport, according to the Liberty Times, one of several media outlets linked to Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling party.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ilitary-action

That's about 2 hours from now...

Going to interesting to see if China will try to do something-Preventing the plane from landing, try to alter it's course.
Or nothing happens the plane lands and the visit take place-thereafter she leave the island and...and...nothing...but harsh words from China.

Markus

[Catfish]

I do not think China will shoot the plane down, but i guess there will be a lot of uproar and tension, and diplomatic porcelain crashed.
Other speakers have visited Taiwan before, so what the heck.

On the other hand is it really necessary in these times? Maybe first end one war, and the next already starting between Serbia and Kosovo, shooting and barricades and all that.
Somehow seeing Russia doing its thing all the world suddenly remembers old animosities, all seem to be on the war path.

[mapuc]

Who would have thought that someone created a livestream where you can follow at real time the plane Nancy Pelosi is on



Markus