Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Catfish]

Thanks

[mapuc]

Thank you so much Dowly. Very interesting read.

From what I know or have heard is that there are tens of thousands volunteers fighting in Ukraine A huge majority is fighting on the Ukrainian side and a few percentage on the Russian side.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

China must decide whether it really wants to side with Putin, White House

The Chinese government must decide whether it really wants to side with Russian President Vladimir Putin and support his aggression with military supplies.

This was said by John Kirby, the coordinator of the National Security Council for strategic communications of the White House, in an interview with "Voice of America", Censor.NET reports.

"China has to make a choice. Does it really want to side with Russian President Putin? Does it really want to help Mr. Putin kill innocent Ukrainians? Because that's exactly what a move like this would look like," he said.

Kirby is sure that this will deal a blow to China's reputation and its standing among the international community.

"If China cares about its international reputation, one would assume that it would see this as not in its interests," Kirby said.

He added that the US strongly urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping to make the right choice and not help Putin kill Ukrainians. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403811

Shoigu demands from General Muradov to capture Vuhledar, but soldiers and officers refuse to storm city, - General Staff

The General Staff released information about the situation in the middle of the Russian army, some parts of which refuse to go on the offensive.

As Censor.NET informs, this was reported on the official Facebook page of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The message states: "A conflict is brewing in the top military leadership of the Russian Federation due to significant losses and the lack of real achievements at the front.

In February of this year, Putin awarded the commander of the Eastern Military District, Muradov, the rank of colonel general for a report on the "successes" of the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade in the Vugledar region.

Now the Shoigu demands that the general work out his rank and take the city at any cost. According to the available information, the leadership of the brigade and the servicemen refuse to go on a senseless offensive again, in which the incompetent leadership sends them - to storm the well-fortified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine without any support and preparation." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3403820

[Skybird]

Dowly's link was the second info in a short time indicating from a Finnish source that the quality of Ukrainian troops is not what I - and many - thought to be.

On the one hand we have reports and the operatiional successes from last year that give praise to general Zalushni, Ukraine's chief of staff, for having achieved in very short time a total dismantling of Sovjet era doctrine and enabling Ukrainian forces to adapt to and fight by NATO doctrinal standards, or at least copy them closely and close enough to make use of NATO assistance very effectively. It is also said a strength of the ukrainain forcesise that they do not depend that much on centralized command like the Sovjets/Russians, but that units in the field know how to improvise efficiently while staying objective-focussed. That they work more like an autonomous swarm, and less depending on a centralised brain. Which allows them to compensate for individual faults at the officers' level.

On the other hand there are now two reports from Fins saying the quality of the Ukrainian troops is not much different than that of the Russians, that they are very short of NCOs like the Russians are, and that it is easy to stun them in place by taking out their commanders. In other words they say they are still operating by Sovjet doctrinal standards.

That is a contradiction of course. Or is it not? Could it be that the undeniable improvements - the Ukrainian army of 2022 was much stronger than the Ukrainian army in 2014 - are limited to the operational level of warfare, command and control at the division and corps level , while at the tactical level, say platoon, company and maybe batallion level still the Sovjet spirit haunts the way the Ukrainians run the fighting?

German trainers who train Ukrainian troops and tank crews are full of praise only, saying the men are extremely motivated, learn and train until they drop asleep while standing, so to speak. They say they learn extremely fast.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Skybird

That is a contradiction of course. Or is it not? Could it be that the undeniable improvements - the Ukrainian army of 2022 was much stronger than the Ukrainian army in 2014 - are limited to the operational level of warfare, command and control at the division and corps level , while at the tactical level, say platoon, company and maybe batallion level still the Sovjet spirit haunts the way the Ukrainians run the fighting?

What he (the reservist) says is the opposite; Senior commanders are still relying on their Soviet era training where as lower commanders have adapted better to the modern way of fighting.


Here's a story from another Finnish volunteer, again highlighting the incompetence of the senior officers:


We arrived from Yavoriv to Rivne.

We got there and thought, what the hell?
10 big tents, about 30 guys each, in a 40x30m area, side by side in open terrain.
If a missile hits that, it's a whole unit down at once.
We complain to the NCOs about it and almost all agree that we should quickly disperse the tents.

Next day.

The senior officers are constantly being told to get that tent village out of there. The officers understand, but are reluctant because they can't control the troops so precisely and ask how we'll ever get the men in formation on time, etc. We suggest the use of a clock.

Second or third night in Rivne:

I wake up again without warning to the blast of a cruise missile and take off running from the tent without shoes and without putting on much clothing for a few hundred yards to the foxholes. It's freezing, but I'd rather suffer the cold than stay in my tent under a missile strike.

On the way to the foxhole, the air raid siren goes off. Howling, that'll help at this point. Sleeping duty officer panicked and dmg controls? As I recall, soon there was another bang, but a little quieter.

We start to hear the crackle of fire and see a light about 400m away. We start guessing where the closest one hit and our guesses are soon confirmed by the fact that the adjacent tent village was hit by a cruise missile. Similar concentration of tents to ours.

Oh ****, I don't think we'll get any sleep in the tent tonight. I'll be back soon to get more clothes from the tent. In the meantime, the bunch of us sitting in the foxhole, warming each other up like penguins.

Some of those who went to give first aid came back to find the situation hopeless. Burnt bodies, mostly.

The next day dawns and the battalion commander breaks the bad news. Embarrassed, he immediately starts ordering the tents to be dispersed as quickly as possible. Again something had to happen before he dared to act.

In practice, we were again extremely lucky. The Russians chose the next tent village by luck, although we were just as valid a target, even more desirable for them. At least two missiles came down. I heard of another hit, but I won't comment on that as it's not in the news.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dowly

What he (the reservist) says is the opposite; Senior commanders are still relying on their Soviet era training where as lower commanders have adapted better to the modern way of fighting.

This was also the impression I got from reading your post-So I copied the words where he says they got almost surrounded because of an incompetent commander.

Q: How close have you been to the worst gunfire/air strikes, or what has been the worst situation you have faced so far?

A: The most direct and worst situation was being almost surrounded because of an incompetent commander. At the time I was pretty sure that at best I would spend the next 10 years in a Russian prison accused of being a terrorist and at worst buried in the Ukrainian steppes. But all's well that ends well, with a bit of luck I survived.

Q: Have the commanders on your side been competent for the most part? Do you feel you are in good hands most of the time?

A: Depends. Younger commanders who have been fighting since 2014 are very competent. Older and more senior commanders (those with Soviet training) in my own experience have generally been incompetent in modern warfare. And because of one of them, I almost lost my own life.

Markus

[Skybird]

This makes even less sense to me then. How can they achieve such successes and act with mobility and agility and individual initiave unknown in Sovjet doctrine if Zalushnyi has not acchieved something in his mission, as they write about him, "to throw everything Sovjet out"? The russians last but not least ran into the ukrainians' open knifes because they expected them to act like they did in 2014 and since then, and according to that old doctrine. And got royally surprised, obviously.

How are such successes at the operational level possible if now it is said the senior officers still tick and click by Sovjet doctrine that Zalushnyi wanted to weed out from beginning of his term on?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valerii_Zaluzhnyi

I see the problem in Zelensky, regadring the military aspects.

He is no militarily experienced strategist or tactician, and he made terribvole mistakes in assessing the chance sof war in the years before the invasion. He is the right man to drum for international support and sympathy, but before that need arose and now juzstfies him to be president, he was not really good in office they say, and was not much liked by his people.

I wonder to what degree he interferes with his military planners. And Zalushnyi. However, until here he was clever enough to leave the man on his post and do the war.

Yes, I have high respect for that General Zalushnyi. And I seem to not be alone with that, internationally he is much respected.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Oh-oh. Ukranian troops (verbally) attacking their own leadership. If they took their time so long with this, it probably must be really bad.



https://kyivindependent.com/national...eing-protected

[Skybird]

Had this misplaced in the Wuhan thread. Sorry.
Neue Zürcher Zeitung has this opinion piece:
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Contemplating the Russians' deaths: Glorified carnage on social media distorts reality

The destruction of Russian troops is staged in brutal videos from the front. But "war porn" has its pitfalls. We should not be infected by the dehumanization on display.

After the first Russian tanks rolled across the border with Ukraine in the early morning of February 24, 2022, it didn't take long for a flood of videos to hit the Internet. From the windows of their homes, terrified Ukrainians filmed the advancing columns of vehicles in the south and the airborne operation in the north of the country. They filmed the soldiers in the streets, the missile strikes and the first casualties of Putin's invasion.

The footage on social media reinforced the bewilderment that spread across Europe on that February 24 in the face of the war of aggression.

In the weeks and months that followed, the flood of images did not recede. Soon the videos showed the cohesion of people in the subway stations and bunkers; they showed how brave men and women stood up to the Russian tanks. They shocked when they showed the massacre of Butcha or the war hell in Mariupol. They gave hope when the Ukrainians retook village after village in Kharkiv and Kherson in the fall. The footage captivated, dismayed, surprised.

Today, the war is different - and the videos circulating on social networks have changed with it. The fronts in the south and east of the country have hardened into a war of positions with heavy losses. In the apocalyptic scene, the helmet cameras of soldiers in the trenches and drones in the air now document the gruesome reality of the slaughter. The death on display at close range is hard to bear - yet these images are still shared thousands of times.

It is striking that the vast majority of these videos come from the Ukrainian side, which allows the public to participate quasi live in the annihilation of Russian troops. The question arises: what is the purpose of these videos? And how do they influence our perception of the war?

Representations of wars, conflicts and atrocities have exerted a great fascination on mankind ever since Homer's "Iliad" at the latest. Monumental battle paintings bore witness to victories, defeats and their victims, created heroic myths and shaped nation-state narratives. With the advent of photography and film, a powerful new instrument was born through which a broad mass could participate in the horrors of war.

Images of suffering have immense power. After World War II, photographs from the Auschwitz and Dachau death camps contributed to the European "never again" mentality; impressions of the destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by atomic bombs continue to shape geopolitical debates today. During the Vietnam War, photographs of war victims mobilized masses around the world.

At the same time, depictions of war can be instrumentalized by fomenting resentment and a desire for revenge. Time and again, photographs and film footage have been used to justify military interventions - in Yugoslavia, in Syria, in the Donbass.

In her 2003 essay "Contemplating the Suffering of Others," the late American writer Susan Sontag wrote: "Photographs of an atrocity can provoke conflicting reactions. The call for peace. The cry for revenge. Or simply the dull awareness, constantly supplied with new photographic information, that terrible things keep happening. Some people have long believed that if you just depicted the horror vividly enough, most people would eventually grasp the enormity and insanity of war."

But today, more than ever, the gruesome realities of war can be viewed up close, even where there are no journalists with cameras on the ground. Social networks have contributed decisively to this development. In the echo chambers of Twitter and Telegram, the brutality captured on film spreads practically in real time and without moderation: piles of corpses of Wagner mercenaries, hand-to-hand combat in the trenches, exploding tanks.

Of course, the mostly Ukrainian videos from the front lines at Bachmut, Kreminna or Wuhledar have a propagandistic character: they are supposed to scare off the enemy, to demonstrate the strength of one's own troops to the population and the effectiveness of the delivered weapons to the allies. With some success, because it was not least the shocking images from the war zone that contributed significantly to the continuing solidarity with Ukraine and intensified the Ukrainians' will to defend themselves.

The wealth of video material from the war zone can also be a real treasure. It allows, for example, the clarification of war crimes, as has been shown in minute research on the Butscha massacre. It makes it possible to precisely trace the destructive strategies of Russian warfare. Never before has it been possible to analyze and process an armed conflict so directly. Not only journalists, but also military strategists, generals and foreign policy makers can draw their conclusions from this material.

However, if this footage is disseminated without classification and context, a distorted picture of reality emerges all too quickly: It is suggested that the Ukrainians are untouchable, while certain death awaits the Russians in their assaults. In fact, the Battle of Bachmut, for example, showed that no blood toll is too high for Putin and Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. But the Ukrainians are also paying for their fierce resistance with thousands of deaths - only this fact is hardly ever shown in pictures, and the Ukrainian casualty figures are a well-kept secret.

Of course, there are also countless videos from Russian sources, which come across no less ghastly and glorifying in relevant Telegram channels. However, these recordings are extremely rarely disseminated in the West. It is sometimes more convenient to perceive only one side of reality. But this is a mistake.

Some people are too easily euphorized by the Ukrainian success stories - this also applies to journalists. When videos of dozens of destroyed tanks recently emerged, testifying to a crushing Russian defeat at Wuhledar, numerous media outlets joined in a triumphant tenor, according to which Moscow's spring offensive, which had been anticipated with unease, had already failed. But there can be no question of that yet; Russia has increased the pressure on several sections of the front. In the embattled city of Bachmut, however, Kiev has recently regained some leeway. Meanwhile, it remains unclear whether Ukraine can muster the capacity for an effective offensive in the foreseeable future.

Moreover, the footage appears to serve another demand: the peculiar desire to see the Russians take a real beating. Just as the slaughter of Nazis has become a Hollywood genre in its own right, the death of Russians evokes a peculiar satisfaction in some.

On some channels, corpses of Russian soldiers are shamelessly displayed as war trophies, and commentary celebrates the deaths of the invaders. A particularly perfidious genre are those videos of drones dropping their shells into Russian trenches and foxholes until nothing moves in them. It is the gruesome reality of war - but combined with hard bass, these glorifying depictions take on an almost pornographic character.

Such shots dehumanize killing and at the same time aestheticize it in a grotesque way. Brutalization in the context of war has not been around since yesterday - but for the first time a broad public can participate in it unfiltered. It is particularly irritating that the official channels of the Ukrainian armed forces also disseminate such material and gleefully stage the killing of Russians, who are sweepingly referred to as "orcs".

It is true that the diabolization and dehumanization of the invaders are to a certain extent understandable from the Ukrainian perspective as a coping strategy. However, it is important, especially in the West, not to be infected by bitter hatred of everything Russian. The real warmonger is a dictator in the Kremlin, but there will be a Russia after Putin. It will also be in the interest of the West not to treat this future Russia with contempt, but with an outstretched hand.
------------------------------

The last sentence is premature for these times and the present events. Else: good comment.

[Jimbuna]

Putin's 'real vulnerability' exposed as Wagner boss issues major ultimatum

Vladimir Putin's "real vulnerability" has been exposed as Russian troops are reported to be dying at enormous rates in Ukraine - much like they did in another pivotal conflict that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Former US Ambassador Sarah Mendelson said the number of casualties could be a "real vulnerability" for the Russian President because of the impact on families in the country. She noted a similar issue had emerged during the Soviet Union's war in Afghanistan, a mistake that delivered a serious blow to the already struggling USSR.

Speaking to Express.co.uk, the Carnegie Mellon University academic said: "The casualty rate...there's a whole industry looking at the Soviet war in Afghanistan.

"The official number of dead is at about 15,000, some people think 90,000, for a 10-year stretch.

"UK, US intelligence and defence estimates are upward to 200,000 at this point [in Ukraine].

"You're seeing a much higher number of casualties in terms of Russia in Ukraine. I think that's the real vulnerability."

The former US Ambassador to the UN noted Russians are unlikely to start opposing the lengthy invasion of Ukraine because of the crimes against humanity troops have been accused of carrying out.

But she noted the war's impact on families could pose significant issues for Putin in the long term.

Mendelson continued: "Eventually, at some point, this war is affecting far more Russian families than even the Soviet war in Afghanistan or the second war in Chechnya.

"There the casualty rate is what people cared about - they cared about the cost of the war, they cared about the casualty rate."

She added: "They may not care about the complete slaughter of Ukrainian children, women and men but they will be responsive to the casualty rate."

Academics have long claimed Russia's inability to make significant advances over ten years in Afghanistan, paired with the considerable death rate among soldiers, played a pivotal role in the Soviet Union's downfall.

And with Putin now a year into his invasion of Ukraine, questions have arisen about his ability to deliver on his plan to annex more Ukrainian territory into Russia.

Earlier this year, Moscow signalled the draft age could be raised to 30 as early as the spring in its efforts to expand its soldier availability.

After months of stalling because of the winter, the Russian Army has renewed its efforts to advance across Ukraine - with the city of Bakmuth once again at the centre of the fight.

Russian forces this week have continued to encroach on the devastated eastern Ukrainian city but its defenders still denied the Kremlin the prize it has sought for six months at the cost of thousands of lives.

Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said: "Civilians are fleeing the region to escape Russian shelling continuing round the clock as additional Russian troops and weapons are being deployed there."

Bakhmut doesn't have any major strategic value, and analysts say its possible fall is unlikely to bring a turning point in the conflict. Its importance has become psychological. A victory in the area would finally deliver some good news to Putin.

The boss of Russia's private Wagner army blamed Moscow's failure to provide ammunition for the failed assault. Yevgeny Prigozhin pinned the failure on "bureaucracy or betrayal" in a swipe at the Kremlin.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...afe6fd58&ei=13

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

International Center for Investigation of Russian Crimes in Ukraine should be operational by beginning of summer, - European Commission

The International Center for the Investigation of the Crime of Aggression (ICPA) of the Russian Federation against Ukraine should be operational by the beginning of summer in The Hague. The creation of its main structures will be completed within two months.

This was announced by the official representative of the European Commission, Christian Wiegand, Censor.NET informs with reference to DW.

This center will store and analyze evidence for future trials, both nationally and internationally. The European Commission emphasized that all evidence will be stored centrally in a safe place.

The International Center will be part of the Joint Investigation Team (JIT) under Eurojust. It is this agency that intends to deal with the practical implementation of the project and will provide its legal, operational, and logistical support, as stated on the Eurojust website. The center will unite prosecutors from different countries to prepare cases for the future prosecution of those responsible for alleged crimes of aggression against Ukraine. It is about the political and military leadership of the aggressor state.

The official representative of the European Commission reminded that in the current state of affairs, to avoid impunity, it is necessary to overcome legal and practical difficulties. The alleged crime of aggression against Ukraine cannot be prosecuted, as it requires the consent of the Russian Federation or the UN Security Council, of which it is a permanent member. However, the creation of an international ICPA center is an important step in the direction of a potential special tribunal. This is a high-priority task, which is why all participants, including Eurojust, are working at maximum speed to get the center up and running as soon as possible, Wiegand said.

The legal basis for the creation of the ICPA was laid at the international conference "United for Justice", which took place in Lviv from March 3 to 5, where members of the joint investigative group for Ukraine adopted the relevant amendments to their agreement. These amendments "reflect the desire of all JIT partners to close the legal gap" in the area of ending impunity and provide Eurojust with "a strong legal basis for the practical implementation as soon as possible" of this intention, Eurojust Chairman Ladislav Hamran said.

In addition, another international platform was launched at the conference - a dialogue group under the auspices of the Netherlands on bringing to justice those guilty of war crimes in Ukraine. It is a coordination mechanism that offers countries, international organizations, and civil sector stakeholders a platform to discuss and coordinate national and international initiatives in this area. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404027

Lithuanian Defense Minister Anushauskas announced new package of military aid to Ukraine

The Minister of National Defense of Lithuania Arvydas Anushauskas met with the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, who arrived in Vilnius to share the experience gained during the integration of paramilitary structures into the Armed Forces.

As Censor.NET informs with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Lithuania reports this.

"The lessons learned in Ukraine help us purposefully develop our military capabilities. We also take a firm position on supporting Ukraine in all possible ways and are preparing a new aid package for Ukraine," said Anusauskas.

It is noted that currently Lithuania has provided military aid to Ukraine in the amount of almost EUR 409 million. A new aid package is currently being prepared.

"A large part of Lithuania's aid to Ukraine is military training. This year it is planned to train 1,600 soldiers. Lithuanian instructors train Ukrainians both at the national level, in Lithuania, and within the framework of the EU Training Mission and international initiatives such as Interflex. It is also planned to develop a demining course in Lithuania in cooperation with the countries of Northern Europe," the department notes.

They add that the minister also emphasized that Lithuania is intensively preparing for the NATO summit, which will be held in Vilnius this summer and at which, among other important issues, an agreement will be reached on Ukraine's membership prospects. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3404039