Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If it's true Skybird what your wrote in your comment ^
"He does not say it as clearly as I do, but I think he also sees it like that Russia is on the way of winning this war over time - by overwhelming numbers. The quntity of dleiveries the West send into Ukraine simply isy not even close top beiong bigh enough. I think. Not even close."

Then we WILL see boots on the ground-NO way will NATO/the West allow Russia to win this war, never!

What I can see in my crystal ball is a forced ceasefire being imposed upon Ukraine to stop the war-
I know right now it's - We stand with Ukraine and support them as long as it require it"-words from our leaders. However if Russia should turn the tide and start to win this war....

Markus

Ask yourself why after 11 months we do not see vast amounts of tanks or other material on the front, they got the time to prepare same goes for ammo why must they go outside Russia to buy them if they have so large decades old in stock.

Amid the threat of a new large-scale Russian offensive, the pace of mobilization in Ukraine is gaining momentum. The Ground Forces of Ukraine have started forming new mechanized, tank and artillery brigades to reinforce its combat capabilities. According to the rumors, new brigades are also being formed in the structure of Air Assault troops and Marine Corps. It’s planned to mobilize about 30 000 Ukrainian citizens in January alone, which is a sharp increase compared to previous months.

[Skybird]

There are powers in Western Europe who would will a peace at conditions set by Russia, while the US and Eastern Europe rate security for their values and moral principles as more important than peace at any price. The US also wnats to wekane Russia so much that for decades to come it cannot drum the war bongos again: when the storm with China breaks loose, the US wants a stable and secure rear area in its back, which is Europe. Unofrzunatekly Europe doe snot click this way. It says "peace before security, no matter what peace it is".



This dichotomy needs to be solved, and quickly so. Former US amabassadfor to Germany Jack Kornblum wrote that drmaatric chnages are over us all and that for Euroope they are destrictive and disprutoiuve and that they are ienviotable, cannot be aovided. Europe'S idea of not on yl wantign to diplomaticlaly suppport a peace project, but the EU being a peace project in person, has completely collapsed, has been shown to have been an illusion based on wishful dreams and military impotence. I expoect more such collaposes coming over Europe in the forseeable future, namely in the energy and the climate/eco policy field. Both will cause havoc on Europe's ability to be economically competitive with China, India, the US. And in their bid to secure theor powers, the political bureaucrats will more and more turn Europe into a dictatorship to enforce their rule on the people, despite the obvious dysfunctionality. It already has begun, the signs are clearly to be seen for everbyody who wants to not keep his eyes shut. It already happens.



I am not one bit optimistic for Europe. Not one bit.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ask yourself why after 11 months we do not see vast amounts of tanks or other material on the front, they got the time to prepare same goes for ammo why must they go outside Russia to buy them if they have so large decades old in stock.

Could it have something to do with the fact Poohtin hasn't declared war on Ukraine and haven't initiate general mobilization.

As some Danish expert said some month into the war:

we have only seen a fraction of their mighty air force in Ukraine
and
We have only seen a fraction of their tank brigade.

What may end with a Ukrainian win is the lack of fighting will and other thing on the Russian side.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ask yourself why after 11 months we do not see vast amounts of tanks or other material on the front, they got the time to prepare same goes for ammo why must they go outside Russia to buy them if they have so large decades old in stock.

Amid the threat of a new large-scale Russian offensive, the pace of mobilization in Ukraine is gaining momentum. The Ground Forces of Ukraine have started forming new mechanized, tank and artillery brigades to reinforce its combat capabilities. According to the rumors, new brigades are also being formed in the structure of Air Assault troops and Marine Corps. It’s planned to mobilize about 30 000 Ukrainian citizens in January alone, which is a sharp increase compared to previous months.

More than half of the artillery of Ukraine - is mounted on pickups. Sodleirs drive in unpretced civilian vehciles to into battle, most of them. Their T-72 and BMP fleet has been badly mauled. Precious Himars targets have been moved out of range by the Russian. The Ukraine has, by American assessment as well as British assessment, lost the momentum and the initiative, they are now locked in a positional war of atrition, and that works for the Russians.

Use English translation.




No, he is not optimistic.


And not what the Colonel says about mobilizartion, that the ukriane currently already is in its 8th or 10th mobilization wave, the young men already all are drawn and that they now need to call up older men and elderly men. Note also that he says that even if of the 10-11 thousand mothballed tanks the Russians have in reserves only every firth tnak could be reactivated, this stil woud, mean that the 2000 tnaks they sitll have in the ukriane after their high losses another 2000 tanks would arrive sooner or later. that wou,ld mean 4000 Russian tanks against a rpidxyl dercaisn gnumber of Ukrianian T-72, 81 Leopards and 14 Challengers over the casue of Q2 and Q3, and 31 Abrams by the end of the years of Q1 2024. I have said it so often, and I feel confirmed by the Colonel when he said that it is the high numbers, the overwhelming numbers that count in wars and decide on military success. In WW2, the Shjarms needed a supeirority by 7:1 to engae a Gerna Tiger, that was doctrine, that high were the expected American losses . And still, the Sherman was good enough and the Americans won. The elsdership was not as skilled, their tehcnolgy was not as sophistacted when they entered the war, and yet they won the war i n the end. By overwhelming numbers. Means in their case: superior production output.



What is send to Ukraine currerntly is not effective, sufficient, in numbers. Its symbolic. I wonder whether we maybe only calm our concience. The Germans still doubt, in their SPD and CDU parties, that we need to switch to war production!

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

More than half of the artillery of Ukraine - is mounted on pickups. Sodleirs drive in unpretced civilian vehciles to into battle, most of them. Their T-72 and BMP fleet has been badly mauled. Precious Himars targets have been moved out of range by the Russian. The Ukraine has, by American assessment as well as British assessment, lost the momentum and the initiative, they are now locked in a positional war of atrition, and that works for the Russians.

Use English translation.




No, he is not optimistic.


And not what the Colonel says about mobilizartion, that the ukriane currently already is in its 8th or 10th mobilization wave, the young men already all are drawn and that they now need to call up older men and elderly men. Note also that he says that even if of the 10-11 thousand mothballed tanks the Russians have in reserves only every firth tnak could be reactivated, this stil woud, mean that the 2000 tnaks they sitll have in the ukriane after their high losses another 2000 tanks would arrive sooner or later. that wou,ld mean 4000 Russian tanks against a rpidxyl dercaisn gnumber of Ukrianian T-72, 81 Leopards and 14 Challengers over the casue of Q2 and Q3, and 31 Abrams by the end of the years of Q1 2024. I have said it so often, and I feel confirmed by the Colonel when he said that it is the high numbers, the overwhelming numbers that count in wars and decide on military success. In WW2, the Shjarms needed a supeirority by 7:1 to engae a Gerna Tiger, that was doctrine, that high were the expected American losses . And still, the Sherman was good enough and the Americans won. The elsdership was not as skilled, their tehcnolgy was not as sophistacted when they entered the war, and yet they won the war i n the end. By overwhelming numbers. Means in their case: superior production output.



What is send to Ukraine currerntly is not effective, sufficient, in numbers. Its symbolic. I wonder whether we maybe only calm our concience. The Germans still doubt, in their SPD and CDU parties, that we need to switch to war production!

To get the overwhelming numbers they need to train the tankers for them else it has no use to get those mothballed tanks ready they need large workforce Russia does not have also mentality of the Homo Sovieticus is indifference to the results of his labor "They pretend they are paying us, and we pretend we are working" indifference to common property and to petty theft from the workplace, either for personal use or for profit "Take from the plant every nail, you are the owner here, not a guest" a new man created for over 70 years by Stalin as for Stalin he had over 2 million of slaves in the gulag to win from Germany surplus to the normal workforce. The mayor factor the soviets did not succeed in their "workers heaven" was the lack of production and corruption by all. America and Britain is still willing to send material, would they do it if they thought there is no change of winning in a way.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Could it have something to do with the fact Poohtin hasn't declared war on Ukraine and haven't initiate general mobilization.

As some Danish expert said some month into the war:

we have only seen a fraction of their mighty air force in Ukraine
and
We have only seen a fraction of their tank brigade.

What may end with a Ukrainian win is the lack of fighting will and other thing on the Russian side.

Markus

We have seen the might of Russia (it is gone fertilizer on Ukraine soil), it is now on plan 4 or 5 and can not win this with numbers (ratio) we have not seen since WWII Putin can declare war, but that is only for Russia has no purpose in this invasion operation or war are only words meant for the Russian elite does he have the guts to send elite boys in to this slaughter a gamble he does not dare yet.

[Skybird]

Production in Russia is cheaper then here. And furtherl - even if they only reactivate every fifth tank, thats 2000 - 2500 additional tanks, and then plus units from other parts of their country. They are from from running out of reserves!

And while we talk, type and discuss, and senda handful of our tanks, their troops in the East and in Crimea dug themselves in deeper and deeper.

There is a too optimistic perception in the West of how the war is going. Its not hopeless for the Ukraine, but very, very difficult, it will get so much more destroyed and it will take more than just this year 2023. Already months back I said that it will pay for any victory with catastrophic damage to its economy and infrastructure, andntghats whyt the Rsusians currently make sure does happen in extremis. And the Ukrainian own losses in lives also will be horrendous.

Our media sugar-coat it all a bit. Our aid currently is enough to extend the war - but its not enough to decide the war. And if we leave it to these low levels in small doses over long periods of time, then i fear Ukraine will lose in two or three years, and will end being obliterated. Maybe even earlier.

I do not talk the way for negotiating with Russia or to stopp supporting Ukraine, far from it. But I say we must get far more realistic. What we currently manage to raise in support, is not even close to what is needed to decide the war by a win. We must do much more. MUCH more. By factors. The way we do it now we likely will lose and Russia will win.

And Russia - it has always been doctrine of Sovjet forces to make up for inferior technology by overwhelming masses and accepting high own losses, thats their drill since WW2. They are absolutely used to this kind of attritous war fighting. They made a science of it. Lets face it, the Ukrainian offensive after Charkiv has been stopped by them - and I said that already weeks ago. At Soledar and Bachmut, they make slow advance, and the ukrainians had to fall back under heavy own losses. Not only the Russians take a beating there: the Ukrainians suffer high losses, too. Slowly the Russian become more successful again, slowly they learn, slowly they adapt, slowly they bring their overwhelming numbers to bear. The Ukraine is caught in a war of attrition currently - and this they cannot win. They must regain the initiative, start another offensive, start manouvering again, must secure momentum. An for that what they get from us is not enough.

Time to drop more of those red lines in Washington and Europe.

I will never understand how the Russians managed to get most of their forces in cherson out and over the river in a sorted, cohesive manner, it should not have been possible, those forces should have been lost for them. There must have been a deal in the background. Some say Washington negotiated such a deal.

Mobilization in Russia now works better than initially. Mobilization in the Ukraine works worse with every wave. No time left anymore for more Western scholzing.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

We have seen the might of Russia (it is gone fertilizer on Ukraine soil), it is now on plan 4 or 5 and can not win this with numbers we have not seen since WWII Putin can declare war, but that is only for Russia has no purpose in this invasion operation or war are only words meant for the Russian elite does he have the guts to send elite boys in to this slaughter a gamble he does not dare yet.

When thinking about it and what happened when Ukraine went offensive in Northeast Donetsk Oblast the Russian fled and let a huge amount of weapon and ammo be left as a gift.

The same happened When Ukraine went offensive against Russia in Kherson Oblast-The Russian fled over the river.

With these in memory-I think you are right.

Where the next Offensive will be I don't know and what area they are going to invade/retake I don't know.

Markus

[Skybird]

Bubble-Olaf gets told in Brazil that Brazil will not deliver the hoped-for 300,000 rounds of ammo for the Gepard the German was asking for.

-----------------------------------
Biden says that he will not deliver F-16 to Ukraine.

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Macron did not rule out jets, but said they would come at cionditons, if ever. Namely that their wepaons should not touch Russian soil and shall not be used escalating. Whiöle the first can be interporeted geograohcially, it is unclear to me what he is meaning to be the meaning of the latter. Not "escalating"...? Serious now...? After 11 months of Russian invasion the Ukrainians may "escalate" something?
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France and Australia will deliver the urgently needed ammo of 155mm callibre.

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Scholz calls demands for jets "strange".

[Jimbuna]

Russian company offers £60k reward for first soldier to ‘destroy or capture’ a Western tank

A Russian company has offered a cash reward for each Western-made tank that is destroyed in Ukraine.

Energy firm Fores announced in a statement that it would pay five million roubles (£60,000) to the first Russian serviceman to “destroy or capture a German Leopard 2 battle tank or an American Abrams.”

The company is also willing to pay 500,000 roubles for every destroyed or captured tank thereafter.

In the event of modern fighter jets being sent to Ukraine, Fores has offered a reward of 15 million roubles for the first F-15 or F-16 aircraft.

The statement justified the offer in language that echoed the Kremlin, which attacked Western companies for crossing a “red line” by supplying battle tanks.

“We are witnessing a process of permanent escalation of the conflict and unlimited pumping of the enemy with weapons,” Fores stated.

“The decision to transfer western tanks to Kyiv indicates that Nato does not adhere to the concept of supplying Ukraine with only defensive weapons, which means the need to consolidate and support our army.”

Russian actor Ivan Okhlobystin announced last week on social media that “representatives of a large Russian business have authorised me to announce that they are assigning a bonus of 10 million roubles for each Abrams,” without specifying the business.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had previously warned that Western tanks would “burn” on the battlefield.

The UK, US, Germany and several other European countries are preparing to supply Kyiv with dozens of advanced tanks over the next few months ahead of an antiicpated Russian offensive.

The tanks have not yet been dispatched and operators will require extensive training to transition from Soviet-era equipment to Nato hardware.

Ukrainian soldiers arrived in the UK on Monday to learn how to use British Challenger 2 tanks, according to the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russi...n-tank-2115815

[Jimbuna]

Putin crisis as Ukraine says waves of Russian troops being 'crushed' in latest assault

Vladimir Putin is facing a fresh crisis after a Ukrainian colonel claimed Russian troops are being "crushed" during a fresh assault on a strategically critical town. Ukrainian military analyst Mykola Salamakha said Russian troops were mounting a series of attacks on Vuhledar as Russia looks to gain a foothold in the war but he claimed Moscow's assault on the coal-mining town in Donetsk was coming at a huge cost for Putin's men.

The Ukrainian colonel told Ukrainian Radio NV: "This is a repetition of the situation in Bakhmut - one wave of Russian troops after another crushed by the Ukrainian armed forces."

He also added that an "extremely strong defensive hub" had been created there.

Earlier today, Ukraine's General Staff said ina statement Ukrainian forces had fought off an attack from Russia in Bakhmut.

The city has been the focus of Russia's offensive in the eastern Donetsk region, as well as in several other cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Denis Pushilin, the administrator of Russian-controlled parts of Donetsk, also said today is forces had gained a foothold in Vuhledar, southwest of Bakhmut, according to Russia's TASS news agency.

Russia's Defence Ministry had insisted troops had taken up "more advantageous positions" in Vuhledar and inflicted losses on Ukrainian forces.

During his regular video address late last night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned his country was facing a difficult situation in the eastern Donetsk province.

He once again appealed for faster weapons supplies and new types of weaponry, just days after Western allies agreed to provide Kyiv with dozens of heavy battle tanks.

Mr Zelensky said in his late night video address: "The situation is very tough. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and other sectors in Donetsk region - there are constant Russian attacks."

"Russia wants the war to drag on and exhaust our forces. So we have to make time our weapon. We have to speed up events, speed up supplies and open up new weapons options for Ukraine."

Last week, Ukraine was handed a massive boost after Germany finally said it will send Leopard 2 tanks to the war-torn country in the fight against Russia.

It also means Western and NATO allies can now send squadrons of the German-made vehicles following weeks of anger and frustration over Berlin hesitating on the issue.

The latest developments come after Putin was warned he faces a "very bleak future" if he fails to score a "significant victory" in the next major offensives with Ukraine.

The Russian President has seen his army suffer a series of devastating blows in the conflict, with tens of thousands of troops being killed on the battlefield.

The first anniversary of the war is just a few weeks away on February 24, and there has been speculation Putin could announce a huge mobilisation of half-a-million troops in a desperate bid to boost his ailing plan.

Colonel Richard Kemp, a retired British Army officer who served for nearly 30 years, claimed both Russia and Ukraine were gearing up for "major offensives" but warned this could be Putin's "last roll of the dice".

He told Express.co.uk: "The Ukrainians have taken a huge hit, but of course so has Putin.

"We all know things didn't work out how we expected or how he conditioned the Russian people to expect, so he has to have a significant victory in the early part of this year if he can achieve it.

"If he can't achieve that, it could be a very bleak future for him with the possibility of some kind of coo in Russia against him. He will be very mindful of that possibility.

"Putin is in a very strong position and still has huge popularity within Russia, despite this war. But we have also seen rumblings from some of the elites within Russia.

"The prospects of a popular Russian uprising against Putin are pretty low but the prospect of someone of significance in Moscow or a significant number of people deciding to move against him is possible."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...257ed996b2dde4

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Poland boosts defence spending over war in Ukraine

Poland has announced a sharp increase in defence spending, saying the change is needed because of the Ukraine war.

It is the latest European country to say it is increasing military spending as a result of the conflict.

Poland has a military budget of just less than 2.5% of its GDP, but the prime minister says he wants to increase the figure to 4% this year.

Last week, Mateusz Morawiecki urged Germany to allow his country to export Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine.

"The war in Ukraine makes us arm ourselves even faster. That is why this year we will make an unprecedented effort: 4% of GDP for the Polish army," Mr Morawiecki said.

Raising defence spending to 4% "might mean that this will be the highest percentage... among all Nato countries," he added.

Poland, which borders the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, has previously said it was buying 116 Abrams tanks from the US with the first deliveries to start this spring.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led many Western countries to review their military spending - and in many cases, increase it significantly.

Members of the Nato Western military alliance have agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP, a measure of a country's economic output, on defence from 2024. The figure of 2% has been a long-standing target for the alliance.

Recently, France outlined plans for a major boost to its armed forces in part due to the war in Ukraine, saying the next seven-year budget would increase to €413bn (£360bn) from 2024-30, up from €295bn.

Sweden and Finland have announced steep increases in their military budgets as part of their bid to join Nato.

Days after the invasion in February 2022, Germany pledged an extra €100bn of the budget to the armed forces.

And in June, the UK promised under former prime minister Boris Johnson to increase spending to 2.5% of GDP.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64457401

[Skybird]

Abbas Gallyamov, the former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, believes a military coup in Russia is increasingly likely given the serious Russian losses. Russians would be looking for someone to blame given the sluggish economy and tens of thousands of dead soldiers in Ukraine, Gallyamov told "CNN."

"The Russian economy is deteriorating. The war is lost," he told the U.S. news network. "There are more and more deaths, (...) and Russians will try to find an explanation for this, (...) and will be able to give themselves the answer: 'Well, this is because our country is ruled by an old tyrant, an old dictator,'" Gallyamov said, referring to Putin.

He thinks a military coup is possible in the next twelve months. Then a "hated, unpopular president" would be at the head of the country. "Without a victory over Ukraine, he will have trouble with the Russians," he continues. That is why Gallyamov also expects that Putin could cancel the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024.

-FOCUS-

I fear with the man coming after Puitin it will all become worse. There are several bulls in the ring already, all the time trying to improve their position in their rivalry for power. And none of them is a nice guy, none. Whoever succeeds Putin most likely will gear up the war in a bid to actually stay in power. Else his stay in the top seat will be a short one.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Abbas Gallyamov, the former speechwriter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, believes a military coup in Russia is increasingly likely given the serious Russian losses. Russians would be looking for someone to blame given the sluggish economy and tens of thousands of dead soldiers in Ukraine, Gallyamov told "CNN."

"The Russian economy is deteriorating. The war is lost," he told the U.S. news network. "There are more and more deaths, (...) and Russians will try to find an explanation for this, (...) and will be able to give themselves the answer: 'Well, this is because our country is ruled by an old tyrant, an old dictator,'" Gallyamov said, referring to Putin.

He thinks a military coup is possible in the next twelve months. Then a "hated, unpopular president" would be at the head of the country. "Without a victory over Ukraine, he will have trouble with the Russians," he continues. That is why Gallyamov also expects that Putin could cancel the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024.

-FOCUS-

I fear with the man coming after Puitin it will all become worse. There are several bulls in the ring already, all the time trying to improve their position in their rivalry for power. And none of them is a nice guy, none. Whoever succeeds Putin most likely will gear up the war in a bid to actually stay in power. Else his stay in the top seat will be a short one.

And with it may come the break-up of the Russian Federation which I think is the main objective, not Crimea. Not too long ago Kazak president Tokayev publicly humiliated Putin on camera. Today the goat molester Kadyrov is now hinting at the idea of independence from Russia.