Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No, its not. It is a logistics nightmare, pilot training is far more time consuming than buildign the crew for a tank, so is maiontenance. And any airbas ein Ukraine housing Vipers will come uner immedoatey and constant attack. Russia may noit have totla air siperiority<, but it dominates the sky, the ukrianian airforce ha only very limited spaces where it can operate its few remaining Fulcrums.

Its complex a tasks with tanks already. With fighters it becomes even worse.

They should reserve the Dutch Falcons for Ukraine that become free due to the change to F-35s, yes, but I cannot see Western-made fighters flown by Ukrainians from Ukrainian airbases anytime soon, and certainly not this year. I even give the arirval of Abrams tnaks this year only a 50:50 chance, I think next year is mor elikely for that.

But then, we have been wring on so many things before the war, so maybe I get provne wrong on this fighter topic, too. But I must base on what makes sense to me now, not what maybe in the distant future may sound reasonably or not.

What happens if the maintenance chain of an airforce gets overwhelmed due to so high numbers of planes that it cannot maintain them competently, the German Luftwaffe has learned after it bought way more F-104 Starfighters than it could handle: the damn things did not stop to drop out of the German sky. In peacetimes. Of 916 fighterjets the Germans had bought, a spectacular 300 - ONE THIRD! - crashed. That earned the plane a certain nickname in Germany: widowmaker.

Ukraine is already making their airfields F-16 ready.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ukrainian officials say they received pledges for "321 heavy battle tanks" from the West.

I wonder where that hugh number is coming from? How is that number formed up? Who dleivers what? So far the publishe dnumbers show not even 100 tanks from the NAOT partner,s not ocutned recent Polish pledges for Polish-improived T-72. With these the count is in the rnage of around 150 or so.

Where do 321 "heavy battle tanks" come from?

Meanwhile Russia is widneign gains oin tenb gorud n around Soledar, adding small vbillages around the city to its list of recent "conquest". Things in that part fo the front currently do not go well for Ukraine. The Russian army is said to ahve taken over from Wagner again after Wagner failed to deliver on their promise to Putin to get Bachmut for him. At the same time reports on excessive use of mobile crematoria to hide the high number of KIAs from the Russian public and to evade compensation payments to families make the round. The problem is that the losses may be high - but it is not the criminal scum at the top paying the price, but little fishes pay the price, and pretty much exclusively them. Most of them are NOT murderers and rapists recruited from Russian prisons. Possible however that during the war they get turned into murderers and rapists.

Best advise to them might be that in the field they open fire at their superior officers and kill them and any troops wanting to hinder them, then flee and hand themselves over. Dangerous choice, yes. But so is to not do it and serve until detah as cannon fodder and gettign shot to idnetify Ukrainian positions that then get fired at by more veteran units.

"The comrade who wants to see me dead is not my comrade but my worst enemy." Words from my grandfather in WW2, quoting a Russian prisoner. The Russiands did like they do today already back then, and before. The worst enemy of the Russian soldier always has been his own leaders.

Spain has a huge stock of early leopards 2 maybe they are promised.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

He needs to make his homework better. He allows to get carried away by his enthusiasm.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Hybrid warfare –

"Swedish media suggest that Moscow was behind the protest aiming to sabotage Sweden's NATO membership bid"

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/inter...ning-in-sweden

Most of these extreme right-wing populist parties in Europe are on the payroll of Putin in Dutch Parliament there are two one is openly saying Putin is the good guy other is against all our Ukraine support both frequently visit Putin am glad they are a minority.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Spain has a huge stock of early leopards 2 maybe they are promised.

Hangar and runway coordinates are already being logged into Russian cruise missiles.



Anyway, I stick with what Ukrainian pilots are being quoted with. Its not enough to just fly a plane, if you want to make use of its options and various systems and weapons, you need training of 6 months minimum. Says the Ukrainian pilots, I red it somewhere today.



And then the logistic problems.


Note: i do not say they will not get F-16s one day. I only calmed down on the voiced expectation they would or could be deployed into combat any time "soon". They will play no role in the offensives upcoming in the next 3-6 months.



And it might be the reason why Ukraine so urgently calls for them: to compensate for the late arrival of the tanks. The russian offensive most likely will start rolling much earlier.



Also, lets not forget that Russian ground forces move, like ours, under protection of air defences like shoulderpads and ZSUs. Russia has no total air superiority - but it nevertheless controls the air. No side has superiority, but Russia nevertheless controls the air, simply that. The F-16 is unlikely to make a difference if used in CAS, currently at least. More likely they want it to shut down more drones and cruise missiles.



Tanks can be hidden in the countryside. Planes not. What they need most is ammo, tanks, IFVs, artillery, anti-air. Vipers I have on the last place on that list.



Prepare for them, yes, absoklutely. But do not expect them any time soon. Like the Abrams - they will come, but not any time soon. Maybe even not before 2024.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Most of these extreme right-wing populist parties in Europe are on the payroll of Putin [...] .

As is the "AfD" in Germany. And "Die Linke".
Funny how those right and left wing extremists resemble each other when it comes to worshipping dictatorship

[August]

Originally Posted by August

Posted earlier.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Hangar and runway coordinates are already being logged into Russian cruise missiles.



Anyway, I stick with what Ukrainian pilots are being quoted with. Its not enough to just fly a plane, if you want to make use of its options and various systems and weapons, you need training of 6 months minimum. Says the Ukrainian pilots, I red it somewhere today.



And then the logistic problems.


Note: i do not say they will not get F-16s one day. I only calmed down on the voiced expectation they would or could be deployed into combat any time "soon". They will play no role in the offensives upcoming in the next 3-6 months.



And it might be the reason why Ukraine so urgently calls for them: to compensate for the late arrival of the tanks. The russian offensive most likely will start rolling much earlier.



Also, lets not forget that Russian ground forces move, like ours, under protection of air defences like shoulderpads and ZSUs. Russia has no total air superiority - but it nevertheless controls the air. No side has superiority, but Russia nevertheless controls the air, simply that. The F-16 is unlikely to make a difference if used in CAS, currently at least. More likely they want it to shut down more drones and cruise missiles.



Tanks can be hidden in the countryside. Planes not. What they need most is ammo, tanks, IFVs, artillery, anti-air. Vipers I have on the last place on that list.



Prepare for them, yes, absoklutely. But do not expect them any time soon. Like the Abrams - they will come, but not any time soon. Maybe even not before 2024.

Longer range missiles like ATACMS should take priority over delivery of F-16s.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Spain has a huge stock of early leopards 2 maybe they are promised.

Indeed they have, but these later got repoted to be totally rotten. It will cost a long time to refubish them.- Many months. There is speculation that this finding is the reason why after initial anouncements some months ago Spain suddenly denied to have wanted sending "many Leopards".



They probabvly only operate the Leopardo-2E in active service.


Lets beleive it, thee 2A4 verison is OLD. It ma yhave stood around ins oem backyard for the apst 15, 20 years,mw ith open ahzcthes. Evertyhiogn ionside that could rot, ha soprtten, all placti and rubber anmd electric is gone or unusable. Refurbishing these means: complete take them apart and rebuild them from scratch.



How does your car look like after 20 years if you left it standing i your garden with open windows and in the sun? And that car then would not have complicated electronics, servo engines, hydraulic systems, severla kilometers of wire, and all that. If the 2A4 have not been run in service, but had been mothballed, do not count with these for many months to come. End of this year, if things run well.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

...

How does your car look like after 20 years if you left it standing i your garden with open windows and in the sun? And that car then would not have complicated electronics, servo engines, hydraulic systems, severla kilometers of wire, and all that. If the 2A4 have not been run in service, but had been mothballed, do not count with these for many months to come. End of this year, if things run well.

This problem does the Russians also have they have thousands of material standing in the open air for decades, most will not operate same goes for ammunition after a while it is not safe to use it anymore.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

As is the "AfD" in Germany. And "Die Linke".
Funny how those right and left wing extremists resemble each other when it comes to worshipping dictatorship

Really? Have you ever noticed that the flag of the Nazis - red with white centre dot and a blakc swastika in it - and the flag of the global proletarian movement shared the same red? That is because the Nazi flag IS the communist/proletarian movement flag, sichel and hammer cut out and replaced with swastika. Until the end, Hitler and Mussolini insisted they were not "polically right", but they saw themselves as left, as socialist. In a speech to the party in February 1945 or 1944 Hitler explained that he saw no principle difference between German Nationalsocialism and Sovjet Bolshevism. Already in the early 30s Goebbels agitated against the possessing class and left no doubt on what woudl happen to them when the NSDAP - the natiolSOCIALIST WORKERs party - would ever gain governmental power: expropriation or state control of production and factories.

I used to say on some occasions in the past that Socialism and Nazism, that political left and right are twins, kids of the the same father, are offsprings of the same spirit, but that is not really correct. To be more precise: they are not two twins, they are indeed just one: one actor, but with very severe personality disorder, he suffers from split personality. The context of the situation he is embedded in at a given moment decides whether he shows his nazi-labelled or his socialist-labelled personality, but its always the same actor. The two are not two - its always just one and the same.

And thats why I dispise both the same, do not help the one against the other, do not prefer the one to the other, buts dispise them both equally. Because this is always one and the same sh++. The result is alway the same, too: tyranny, dictatorship, totalitarianism and brute force of the state/collective against the individual. Inhumaness as a civil duty. Cruelty as a moral principle. In other words: fascism, freed of its originally Italian context.

No, you must not wonder, and its not funny at all.

Not two - just one. Always one and the same.

The only thing one can wonder about is that people time and again still fall for it, ever again and again, allow to get fooled by it, and do not learn from the terrible experiences of the past while history teaches volumes of always one and the same lesson about it. Not just Germany or the Sovjet Union.

You now also see why the "left" and the "right" share one and the same enemy that unites them: the libertarian, the freedom loving, self-responsible human. There is no difference between left and right. Only between freedom, and not freedom.

[Otto Harkaman]

I know its going to be awhile before any of these new weapon systems are able to be deployed. We are probably not going to really see anything deployed in the numbers they need to be until next winter.

But this is WW3, make no doubt, hopefully it can be contained in Ukraine. This Putin is a madman and the thugs around him. He has to be defeated.

This isn't a war against the Russian Federation, Putin is an old style Soviet, this is a continuation of the Cold War. We won a great battle without a shot separating East Germany, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltic States from Soviet Union. Press the attack don't let him reassemble the Soviet Union. If he retakes Ukraine there will be such horrible atrocities on a scale more horrible than what has already has been, this is genocide and ethic cleansing.

This summer (the dry season, when wheeled vehicles can be mobile cross country) will be the hardest because Ivan will know this is the only chance to make gains before these new weapon systems can be deployed in sufficient numbers to make a difference.

Too bad we didn't realize what was going on and maybe had this war in Belarus before it was subjugated.

[Jimbuna]

NATO countries poised to send 50 fighter jets to Ukraine

But the move would require Russia's air force to threaten aerial domination for them to be deployed. It follows a key meeting of the European Air Group at its UK headquarters in High Wycombe Air Command last week.

The defence club was originally formed by the UK and France following the first Gulf War, and now includes Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain.

All seven, including Britain, have agreed to make contingency plans to deploy a total of around 50 fourth-generation Eurofighter Typhoons or F-16 fighter jets or to provide training and logistics packages.

Sending the F-35 Lightning II, a fifth-generation Joint Strike Fighter, however, is "not on the table", sources say.

"The view expressed at the meeting was that the Air Forces of these seven countries must be ready to act quickly if a political decision were taken to provide air cover," added the source.

Last night, one former RAF Air Commodore dubbed the move - which would follow the agreement by Nato members to gift around 130 main battle tanks - as a "logical progression", while another urged training to begin now.

Ukraine has made it clear it wishes to add combat jets to its arsenal, and has made a direct request to the UK.

The Netherlands has publicly stated it would consider sending F-16s, and the US has confirmed it will not stand in its way.

While German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already publicly ruled out the deployment of fighter jets, this would not prevent the country's air force - which operates Typhoons - from playing a vital role in training and logistics.

And this is just one of the severe challenges which may yet dissuade London and other capitals from giving the green light. One aspect is the role of such an air force has not yet been determined.

Air Commodore Dai Whittingham, formerly deputy commander for Nato's Airborne Early Warning and Control Force, said: "Heavy armour allows infantry to advance and it is infantry which holds the ground. You'd expect air cover to be tackling the front line ahead of their advance.

"Some may say deploying Typhoons is a major escalation but, while it's not inevitable, it is really just a logical progression."

But although Western air doctrine places air cover as a crucial component to supporting deployments on the ground, neither Russia nor Ukraine have been able to establish air superiority as both possess very capable ground-based air defence systems (Gbad).

Air Power expert Justin Bronk, of the RUSI think tank, said: "The provision of Western fighter jets won't make a difference now to what is essentially a ground war.

"Russia has a significantly larger force of modern fourth-generation fighter aircraft, which are comparable to F-16s.

"Their pilots have combat experience, and even they cannot effectively provide close air support to their ground forces because of Ukrainian Gbad capabilities."

Depending on the role assigned to the aircraft, training of pilots "to an effective standard" could take eight months.

But logistical groundwork for spare parts and training engineers could take even longer.

Another option, to persuade Bulgaria, Poland, Hungry, Romania to follow Slovakia's offer to send Soviet-build Mig-29s - already in service in Ukraine - would cut this drastically, but offer no advantage.

Mr Bronk added: "At some point Western fighter jets will be sent - the question is determining at what point it becomes worth committing resources involved given other pressing priorities, That time is not now."

Last night it was claimed satellite photos showed Russia is planning a fresh offensive ahead of the first anniversary of the invasion on February 24.

Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council, said: "Now they are preparing for maximum activation, and they believe that by the anniversary they should have some achievements."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/tech...528e4665d00e52