Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The Wals has begun



https://www.anews.com.tr/world/2022/...ocation-moscow

Markus

Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...10774668939264

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russian Telegram channels are now pushing the conspiracy that the missile strike in Poland was a British provocation https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/statu...10774668939264

And according to the twitter Catfish posted Russia said the missile could come from Germany.

Sounds like they are grasping after a grass straw

Markus

[mapuc]

Just heard and seen the latest news

Poland can confirm there has been an explosion in this town near the Ukrainian border-They have sent expert to the area to investigate what may have caused this explosion.

So it's not yet confirmed it was missiles from Russia.

I felt eased when I heard this-I truly hope the explosion was due to some other than a missile strike.

As the Reporter said-There are some French reporters in this town and they have said it has absolutely no military importance of any kind.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Just heard and seen the latest news

Poland can confirm there has been an explosion in this town near the Ukrainian border-They have sent expert to the area to investigate what may have caused this explosion.

So it's not yet confirmed it was missiles from Russia.

I felt eased when I heard this-I truly hope the explosion was due to some other than a missile strike.

As the Reporter said-There are some French reporters in this town and they have said it has absolutely no military importance of any kind.

Markus

"no military importance of any kind" than why Poland has set his military on higher alert
Polish Govt spox:

- investigating reasons behind the explosion
- two people dead
- military readiness level raised in response
- President Duda spoke with Stoltenberg tonight
- Poland considering whether to call for NATO discussions under Article 4
- Cabinet meeting to follow

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

"no military importance of any kind" than why Poland has set his military on higher alert
Polish Govt spox:

- investigating reasons behind the explosion
- two people dead
- military readiness level raised in response
- President Duda spoke with Stoltenberg tonight
- Poland considering whether to call for NATO discussions under Article 4
- Cabinet meeting to follow

I think it has to do with the unknown facts-Was it a mistake or was it on purpose Russia send these missiles against Poland.
As this reporter said in the news.
It could also be a destroyed missile, a missile who had been destroyed inflight by the Ukrainian air defence and the debris has fallen on Polish ground.

For once I'm not going to paint the devil on the wall.

Markus

[Reece]

Originally Posted by mapuc

For once I'm not going to paint the devil on the wall.

Markus

What, Putin's face?

[Skybird]

I think they meant the village has no military importance, they did not mean the incident has no military importance.

Poland holds currently an emergency meeting of the security cabinet, discussing whether or not to call for article 4 of the NATO treaty.

There were reports on an American intel worker who should have confirmed the missile impact, but officially the US agencies have not yet confirmed nor denied it.


Missiles fired from Germany - der war gut! LOL

[Skybird]

Die Welt:
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But what does NATO do if it really was Russian missiles? The defense alliance had been aware for some time that Moscow might at some point try to test its unity by launching controlled attacks even on alliance territory. In NATO, this is called "hybrid strategy": a mix of military and non-military measures to weaken the adversary.

So what to expect next? Poland is expected to request a meeting of the 30 Nato ambassadors under Article 4 on Wednesday. According to this NATO article, the allies can consult each other if a country believes its security and political independence are threatened. However, this article is still a far cry from Article 5, the so-called alliance case, which has only been used once in the history of the alliance: on September 12, 2001, after the devastating terrorist attacks in the United States the day before.
Article 4 has already been applied six times
Display

Article 5 states that an armed attack on one or more countries will be considered an attack on the Alliance as a whole and military assistance will be provided. However, if the missiles were indeed Russian, Moscow is likely to have been smart enough to limit the consequences of the possible impact so that NATO will not declare an alliance emergency.

In any case, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg is likely to be doing everything in his power at the moment to cool things down and to nip in the bud any suggestion that the alliance might even be considering a military strike. The danger of NATO being drawn into an ongoing brutal war is simply too great.

That is why everything currently points to Article 4 consultations: One notes the incident indignantly - if the reports are confirmed - one condemns it in the strongest terms, one threatens countermeasures that are not defined more precisely, and one announces that one now wants to follow the events closely. This is the usual pattern.

In NATO's history, there have been Article 4 consultations six times, mostly at Turkey's request. On March 3, 2014, however, Poland also requested such a meeting after Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimean peninsula. The result at the time was that the alliance decided to distance itself from Russia and intensify relations with Ukraine.

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[mapuc]

I'm pretty sure-Not 100 % though. Who on several occasion have said that article 5 isn't a guarantee for an united Nato front.

Danish Ekstra Bladet writes:

Expert after missile strike in Poland: - It tests NATO unity

Nato risks being split after a missile crashed in Poland, killing two, says expert. Some countries will call for so-called "musketeer's oath" to begin, while others will try to dampen reactions

The world's eyes are on Nato after a missile hit the Polish town of Przewodow, bordering Ukraine, on Tuesday, killing two people.

Because if this is a deliberate attack by the Russians, it could, in the extreme, trigger Nato's Article 5, also known as the "musketeering" threat.

According to it, an attack on one NATO country is also an attack on all NATO countries.

But that does not seem likely at this stage, Rasmus Brun Pedersen, lecturer in International Politics at Aarhus University, tells Ekstra Bladet:

- There are various reports, and nothing is confirmed yet. If it is found to be an attack, article five may be activated, but in my reading it does not look like there is intent behind it, and thus article 5 will be out of play.

- The Russians have gone after the big cities today with rocket attacks, and if the target has been Lviv, which is 125 kilometres from the border town, then they are operating with something of a margin of error, or they are just completely incompetent, says Rasmus Brun Pedersen.

What is the step before Article 5?

- It's Article 4, where more diplomatic means are used. Then the NATO countries will go out and condemn it and say that they stand with the Polish people, but not declare war.

- It is a rather difficult situation. It is a question of finding an appropriate response. We do not want to escalate further and increase the military presence, but if NATO does not react sharply and stand together, it will look like NATO is divided.

Could divide Nato countries
On Tuesday evening, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (S) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, among others, reacted and said that the situation in NATO is being closely monitored.

And according to Rasmus Brun Pedersen, it will probably stay at that level:

- What may be interesting is whether it will test the cohesion of NATO. The Baltic countries and Poland have announced that they see this as a deliberate act. It will require a sharp response. Other countries will probably see it as a mistake that can only be condemned. And then there could be tensions within NATO.

How will Denmark position itself in the dialogue with the other NATO countries?

- We will be more cautious in our rhetoric. We will condemn it and try to increase the pressure on the Russians. If NATO decides to escalate, we will go along, because we cannot stand to go against it, but we will not push for it ourselves.

- Denmark is lurking a little because we are also in a situation where we are forming a government

Danish military is under pressure
What did you think when you saw that?

- I thought. If it's deliberate, then it's a completely different escalation we're in. We'll be much wiser tomorrow, but right now there's nothing to suggest that.

What's the next step? Is Denmark going to war?

- The next step may be to increase the physical presence in the border area. From the American side, you can move forces from Germany to Poland, but right now Denmark can't actually send more. We are stretched to the limit and already have forces in Latvia, north of Riga.

If it is the Ukrainian military that has shot down a Russian missile, will they be blamed? After all, two people have lost their lives.

- No, you cannot blame them or criticise them officially if they have hit a Russian missile that has gone off course. It is only the Russians who have an interest in blaming others.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

If it was on purpose or a mistake there will be Nato member who will try to calm it down-Preventing a Article 5 response

Markus

[August]

[Jimbuna]

Poland missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian projectile, US officials say

Amissile that hit Poland on Tuesday evening was fired by Ukrainian forces in their attempts to shoot down an incoming Russian projectile, US officials have been quoted as saying.

Three US officials, who spoke to the Associated Press on the condition of anonymity, said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces during the Russian bombardment on energy infrastructure across Ukraine.

Polish officials said earlier that a “Russian-made missile” landed in a grain store in Przewodow, Lublin, about 6 km from the border with Ukraine.

Ukraine continues to maintain stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

The explosion within the borders of Nato-member state Poland killed two people, sparking an investigation and emergency meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) members who were in Indonesia.

US president Joe Biden, who is in Bali attending the G20 summit, said it was “unlikely” that the missile was fired from Russia, but promised to support Warsaw’s investigation into the incident and also described the missile as “Russian-made”.

“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Mr Biden told reporters when asked if Russia fired the missile. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of carrying out the attack on a Nato member, calling it a “significant escalation” of the conflict as dozens more missiles fired by Moscow caused destruction and power outages across Ukraine.

Soon after the attack, Russia’s ambassador to Warsaw was summoned for “immediate detailed explanations”.

Russia has denied the allegations against it and accused Polish media and officials of causing “a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation”.

Russian state news agency Ria Novosti said the blast was caused by Ukrainian missiles that had hit Polish territory.

The incident comes as the US and other Nato members have warned Russia against striking member states of the alliance. Under Article 5 of the alliance’s treaty, the Nato members are committed to collective defence in event of a strike on any one member.

The incident is an attempt to provoke a direct clash between Russia and Nato, the head of the permanent mission of Russia to the United Nations said on Wednesday.

“There is an attempt to provoke a direct military clash between Nato and Russia, with all the consequences for the world,” Dmitry Polyansky said on his Telegram channel.

Mr Biden, who called Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on Tuesday “barbaric”, convened an emergency roundtable meeting of several leaders who were gathered in Bali for the G20.

Leaders from Nato members Germany, Canada, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, France and Britain attended, as well as non-Nato member Japan and representatives from the European Union.

Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan, the president of Turkey – a Nato member and ally of Moscow – said he respects the declaration made by Russia on the missile attack.

Polish president Andrzej Duda was more cautious in his approach, saying: “We do not have any conclusive evidence at the moment as to who launched this missile ... it was most likely a Russian-made missile, but this is all still under investigation at the moment.”

Mr Duda said that it was very likely that Poland would request consultations under Article 4 of the Nato military alliance following the blast.

“Our ambassador will be attending the meeting of the North Atlantic Council tomorrow at 10am at Nato headquarters ... it is highly likely that the ambassador will request the activation of Article 4, or allied consultations,” he said.

Poland said it is on alert following the missile attack, increasing the “readiness” of some military units and aerial surveillance.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...87e4ae7beb940a

[Jimbuna]

Putin breaks silence on Poland missile crash and blames Warsaw for 'deliberate escalation'

Russia's Ministry of Defense has claimed that reports of two Russian missiles landing in a village in Poland and killing two people are a "deliberate provocation". The Ministry bafflingly added: "No strikes were made against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian weapons", despite multiple recorded instances of Russian air strikes hitting Lviv, a Ukrainian city about 62 miles south of the village of Przewodów and only 50 miles from the Ukrainian border, just hours earlier today.

The statement concluded: "The fragments published in hot pursuit by the Polish media from the scene in the village of Przewoduv have nothing to do with Russian weapons".

Poland's Armed Forces are on "high alert" following the explosion, while a senior US intelligence official told AP that the strike did indeed come from Russia. Warsaw is understood to be considering whether they should invoke Article 4 of the NATO treaty.

Follow our Ukraine Live blog for more updates on the invasion.

As Poland is part of NATO, the killing of two people with explosions on Polish soil could prove a serious escalation of the conflict.

Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland's prime minister, urgently convened the country's council of ministers for national security and defence, the government spokesperson, Piotr Müller, said - without immediately specifying the reason for the emergency meeting.

Czech's Defence Minister also said she considered it "confirmed" that Russia had fired a missile into Poland, adding that they did not yet know why this had happened.

Responding to the missile strike, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "Today, Russian missiles hit Poland. This is a very significant escalation and we must act. How many times has Ukraine said that the terrorist state will not be limited to our country? It is only a matter of time before Russian terror goes further. Terror is not limited to our national borders.

"I want to say now to all our Polish brothers and sisters: Ukraine will always support you! Terror will not break free people! Victory is possible when there is no fear! You and I don't have it. Let's do everything to stop her!"

The Baltic States have also confirmed their support for Poland as the world reels from news of the strikes. Estonia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said they were "ready to defend every inch of NATO territory," adding the explosions in Poland were "most concerning".

The Latvian Deputy PM, Artis Pabriks, decried Russia's "criminal" regime, while Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said Vilnius is "keeping close contact" with Warsaw.

The UK Foreign Office told Express.co.uk it was urgently seeking clarity on the incident.

France is reportedly carrying out a "removal of doubt" after the explosions in Poland, alongside other NATO allies.

Meanwhile, CNN reported that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to speak with his Polish counterpart later today, quoting a European military official and a US official.

Joe Biden has also asked Congress to approve more than $37billion (£31.7billion) in emergency aid to Ukraine. The additional funding, on top of the aid and equipment the US has already provided throughout the invasion, could provide the nation's military with further reinforcements as Russia's defensive lines begin to be established ahead of the winter.

The US President's funding request, which comes as Congress begins to sit following the midterm elections, also includes $9.25billion in Covid funds to prepare for a potential surge of cases in America in the coming colder months.

An attack on a NATO member such as Poland could lead to the country invoking Article 5, in which an attack on one member is considered to be an attack on all.

This is unlikely to be triggered in this instance.

Possibly more likely is Article 4, which calls for Allies to consult together when "in the opinion of any one of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened".

Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, Phillips P. O'Brien, said: "The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...4b82260f078e2c

[Reece]

Putin breaks silence on Poland missile crash and blames Warsaw for 'deliberate escalation'

Putin just loves to stir the pot!!

[Jimbuna]

The Polish president has said there is no sign that the missile that hit Polish territory late on Tuesday was part of an intentional attack.

President Duda says it's "very likely" that a missile explosion was caused by Ukrainian air defences.

The Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg, who is holding a press conference, also says the incident in Poland was "likely" caused by the activity of Ukraine's air defence systems.

Two people were killed after a missile landed in eastern Poland near the Ukrainian border following a wave of Russian strikes across Ukraine.

Earlier, PM Rishi Sunak said the UK and its allies were trying to establish the facts about the blast.

US President Joe Biden has said it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia.

The American reaction earned rare praise from Russia - with a Kremlin spokesman describing it as "restrained and professional"

[mapuc]

^ A big stone fell from my heart when reading your comment.

Markus