Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Its the Daily Mail. Sounds like a Hollywood plot for depicting the evil villain in some thriller.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ps-reveal.html

Putin's commanders are slaughtering their own wounded soldiers rather than retrieving them from the battlefield for medical treatment, captured Russian soldiers reveal

One should never say "nothing surprises me anymore".

True or propaganda? Is claimed in German media quoting form the Mail's source there is video evidence.

[Jimbuna]

Often called the Daily Fail here in the UK but nothing printed abot the behaviour of Russia during this conflict surprises me anymore.

[Skybird]

Never forget: its also a hige propaganda war by boith sides, and the reports about Ukriane'S successes should not be taken as evidence that its general situation, especially in the long term, is not worse than we might think.



https://time.com/6176748/ukraine-war-economy/


Thats why I assume the US is corretc in wanting to pish the price for Russia'S army as high as possible - before Russia maybe evenmtually will nevertheless "win" the war. Thats what we should aim at: to make Russia bkleed, bleed more, and then bleed some. Becasue edspite all the propaganda, the ltimate victory for Ukreiane maybe is not as clearly defined as the mdeia make us think. The damages on the eocnomy and cities is unimaginable. Possible that the Ukraine drives Russia out - and is nevertheless not viable anymore. Maybe Russia's war goals have changed: and now is simply annihilation.



And so the FOCUS writes correctly:

Anyone following the current war coverage can quickly get the impression that everything has long since been decided in Ukraine. One strategic mistake of Russia follows the next, the Russian losses due to the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian army are obviously considerable. After the rapid conquest of Kiev failed in the first weeks of the war, the Russian offensive in the Donbass is also proceeding sluggishly, measured against the proclaimed goal of occupying all of eastern Ukraine in the shortest possible time.

However, just because Ukraine is not losing does not mean, conversely, that it is about to win the war. On the contrary.

Meanwhile, experts predict a long and grueling conflict, possibly lasting several years. And the Russian army still clearly outnumbers the Ukrainian one. On this premise, Ukraine is in a far more difficult position than one would think given current military successes.

How the war plays out for Ukraine in the medium term depends primarily on one factor: massive arms deliveries from the West. Already, the influence of Western weapons on the conflict is unmistakable. Anti-tank, anti-air and anti-ship missiles, air defense systems and other weapons have arrived in Kiev from the United Kingdom. Slovakia sent the strategically important S-300 air defense system, and the United States sent drones, howitzers, missiles and anti-tank systems. Where would Russian troops be today without these supplies? Possibly much further northwest, perhaps even in Kiev.

According to military experts, however, heavy weapon systems in particular, especially the tanks that Ukraine is now so urgently demanding, require longer training on the equipment. Whether Ukraine will have the time is uncertain, given the war of attrition already underway. At the same time, Time magazine, citing sources in the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, reports that it already lacks the capacity to deploy all of the military aid it has received so far.

Without the delivery and, above all, the use of heavy weapons, military successes will hardly be possible in the medium term, Markus Reisner also believes. Reisner is a colonel in the Austrian Armed Forces and head of the development department at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.

"For a war of attrition, you need - as you can already guess from the name - lots of material, and it is no coincidence that Ukraine started demanding heavy weapons at the very moment when Russia was focusing on eastern Ukraine," he says in an interview with FOCUS Online. Both sides would keep hitting each other until one of them gave in. "It's simply a matter of who has the longer breath," he says.

It could become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to even get the weapons from the West to where they are needed. The rail network is the crucial factor here, and Russia knows it, too.

"Russian forces are systematically destroying the railroad infrastructure," wrote the head of the state railroad Ukrsalisnitsa, Olexander Kamishin, in mid-April. Army leaders in Kiev said the Russians "want to destroy the supply routes for military-technical support from partner countries. For this purpose, they are focusing attacks on railroad nodes."

The fact that Russia specifically attacks neuralgic points in the logistics of war is currently demonstrated by the example of Odessa. There, the Russian army cut the central train connection to the port city, with the result that hardly any fuel can be supplied from the West.

Whether Ukraine ultimately gets enough heavy weapons to the front line will also determine whether the country can survive economically on its own. After all, the territorial losses Ukraine has suffered in the southeast are massive, despite all the reports of success, and are hitting the country's economy at its core.

Putin's troops hold the metropolises of Kherson and the remnants of Mariupol, as well as the regions in between. In the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, borders have shifted far inland compared to pre-war times. For example, while an estimated 60 percent of Luhansk was in Ukrainian hands before the war, Russia now holds a good 80 percent.

All of this is crucial because the southeast is enormously important to Ukraine's economy - from wheat to oil production to ports. These areas are either already in Russian hands or at least contested. All this is essential for Ukraine's economic survival, says military expert Reisner. It is therefore only logical that Ukraine has made the recapture of the occupied territories its war goal.
The economic damage inflicted on Ukraine by the war can also be seen in bare figures. While Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of seven percent a year before the war, it has plummeted by a devastating 45-50 percent since the war began. The dependence on Russian energy imports is having a massive impact. In addition, the Russian naval blockade means that the country can no longer export goods across the Black Sea. This costs the Ukrainian economy $170 million a day.

Under the weight of the sanctions, Russia's GDP fell by "only" 7 percent in the same period. Whether and for how long Russia's economy can withstand Western sanctions in the medium term remains one of the war-deciding questions.

What does all this mean for the fate of Ukraine? The question cannot be answered seriously, says Markus Reisner. "How high is Russia's mobilization potential really - i.e., how many troops can Putin push in? To what extent is the EU united in imposing an energy embargo? How quickly can more weapons systems be delivered to Ukraine?"

All of these unanswered questions would have an impact on the outcome of the war.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

we can expect to see the slow but steady degradation of Russian forces. Eventually, this may lead to a 1917-style collapse as morale within the Russian army continues to plummet.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blog...at-in-ukraine/

Markus

[Catfish]

re Skybird
Focus is right, but regarding destruction of transport lines no one hinders Ukraine to do the same on Russian territory. After all this is a war.

[Jimbuna]

Other forms of protest have been more informal. Large numbers of Russian troops have simply abandoned their tanks and armored vehicles in Ukraine and fled or surrendered. This has enabled the Ukrainian military to acquire over 230 Russian tanks and earned Russia the unwelcome status of Ukraine’s number one arms supplier.

[Jimbuna]

Retired colonel speaks out on Russian TV
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61484222

Can't decide if he is very brave or extremely stupid

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Can't decide if he is very brave or extremely stupid

Or a puppet.
Really, I do not know what to make of him. Its the second time he shows up. He could be brave. He could be suicidal. He could be on a mission for the regimeto deceive world media and world opinion or the ukrainians.

Nothing is just to be believed these days.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

re Skybird
Focus is right, but regarding destruction of transport lines no one hinders Ukraine to do the same on Russian territory. After all this is a war.

Do they have the reach? Their tiny air force is up against russian air force and Russian air defences. Andn their ground-ground missiles - I do not know their capacity in this regard.



I am all for brigning the war onto Russian soil Quesaiton is whether the Ukrainians can do that. Numercially, they are oifnerior. They have had losses. They must be exhausted. And always again: the range of their weapons. Russia on the other hand can attack Odessa from bombers that stay in Russian air space, even when their smart ammunition is said to run thin, too - the ukraine must have even less....

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Nothing is just to be believed these days.

True that

Not convinced that being stated below is true either.

[mapuc]

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does anyone of you have an idea of what will happen in Ukraine and in Russia if The Russian military collapse ?

Markus

In Russia regime change but that does not mean it is gone to be better Ukraine will retake their territories in worst case Russia will get a revolution/civil war