Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-ander...&_x_tr_sl=auto

The Ukrainian summer offensive is not really getting off the ground. Kiev is therefore faced with unpleasant decisions. If there are no reports of victory, this will also be a stress test for NATO.
(...)
The fierce exchange of words reminds Ukraine that it is fighting the most difficult of all wars: the coalition war. Any alliance is only as strong as the weakest of its members; and the longer the war lasts, the more fragile the cement that holds it together becomes.
(...)
Western observers are almost lovingly preoccupied with Russia's weaknesses. These are obvious, both militarily and politically. Thus, there has recently been some puzzlement about Prigozhin's coup and Putin's position. But there is every indication that the regime will be able to continue the war for a long time. It is tempting to minimize Moscow's capabilities simply because people want Kiev to win.

Russia has a robust arms industry. Moreover, the war has had relatively little impact on people's daily lives unless they are serving on the front lines or have relatives there. Above all, the country is hardly dependent on foreign aid. What the Kremlin wants to happen, happens - as far as the Russian trinity of incompetence, slovenliness and corruption allows.
(...)
The Ukrainian leadership is probably facing a momentous decision. Either it puts all its eggs in one basket and throws its reserves, so far held back for the offensive, to the front in order to achieve a breakthrough. Or it will be economical with its resources in the war of attrition, thus casting the outcome of the offensive into complete doubt.

In the stalemate, the supply of cluster munitions is said to give the Ukrainians ultimate penetrating power. Previously, this was said about rocket launchers, howitzers and tanks. Anyone hoping for miracle weapons is regularly disappointed. This also applies to the delivery of American combat aircraft.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by August

Looks like Ivan is so desperate for cannon fodder they're going to start drafting old men.



https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rs-2023-07-18/

This lunatic war criminal is so desperate he will use whatever means he can to achieve his aims.

I'm not so sure how effective a seventy year old Orc will be at raping women and catching children to kidnap though, so he may not have thought that one out yet.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The majority of Russian civil society supports Putin's narration. Not becasue the fSb holds a weapin at their sleves, but becasue they really beleive him. They got trained since generations to believe what the powerful tell them. Since centuries.

What Russia needs is a mental denazification program like in Germany after WW2.

This is what I have been saying (or tried to ) since a long time.
But how? I had hoped that an international medium like the 'net would convince some people voluntarily over the time, but if i look at what russian "anchormen" tell their people every day 24/7 and the information broadcast range to Siberia to reach the people – sigh.

So waiting for "the russians" to understand what is going on and act themselves is not likely to happen.
Toppling the russian fascist dictatorship (regardless of being done from within or outside) will not change much because there simply will be a new junta recruiting themselves from the same old "politburo" with the same old cul de sac mindset.
So a new one may or may not be better or at least different to the last one, it will not really change anything.
Russia saw a lot of change from 1917 on, and again after 1989, and then falling back to the good old cold war after 2004. Their civilian society was not anchored strong enough to prevent this, in this short time.

I wonder if anyone read Clancy's "Red Storm Rising" recently, it almost reads like a manual for Russia's invasion and WWIII.

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

Mr Bolton makes a lot of sense here with "Ukraine must ‘attack Russia’s rear military area"

Russian aggression is sustainable into the long term despite losses, as long as their rear end is left intact.

"Russia's blustering and blowhard military incompetence and corruption has been laid bare for everyone to see. The West should support Ukraine with modern fighter jets and the longe range capacity and authorisation to strike well into rear supply areas (including the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea)"

[Jimbuna]

It would appear the Orks aren't particularly welcome in Belarus either....at least by the population.

[Bilge_Rat]

57% of Americans who expressed an opinion in a recent poll disapprove of Biden's decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine and only 43% approved the decision.

https://thehill.com/policy/4106234-5...-ukraine-poll/

obviously not only "peaceniks" and "Putin lovers".

[Bilge_Rat]

Good summary article of why Ukraine's counter-offensive if failing and you are unlikely to see much movement of the frontlines.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/20...ve-is-failing/

[Exocet25fr]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/der-ander...&_x_tr_sl=auto

Every NATO country except the U.S. could not do this certainly not if they would operate under the same conditions even the U.S. would have a though fight fighting this kind of Russian defense lines this is not Afghanistan or Iraq. This would mean large losses for NATO, the only option would be a large air operation and that we do not provide to Ukraine this war will go on for years.

[Skybird]

When the offensive started, some weeks ago, I wrote at one time that I started with giving it a chance of somethign like 45:55. And I linked to that statement a week later or so and said I dropped that chance in my own assessment to something like 35:65 or 40:60, I dont know exactly anymore.

However, if linking to that statement again, i must say my scepticism has grown with every week passing, and I am now at something like 25:75, or even 20:80.

The Ukraine simply has not been given what it needs, not in quantity and now in quality.

In an infinite universe practically everything strange can happen, but I dont bet on it in this case, I would be surprised if the offensive wins pace suddenly and gains its objectives.

And when former NATO supreme commander Gen. Hodges said months ago he expects or thinks its possible that Ukraine would flush Russia out of Crimea by the end of summer or early autumn, already back then I was frowning eyebrows and wondered what kind of mushrooms he was on. The best outcome I could imagine at that time was to break through to the coast and isolate Crimea completely. Not more.

Things run badly for Ukraine. Even diplomatic setbacks do not make it better, even if caused by exaggerated Ukrainains expectations.

I lean myself far out of the window now, and I say this: if there do not come most dramatic changes in supplies and deliveries, then i see it as that Ukraine looses the war. And where should these supplies come from...? Out of nothing, raining down from heaven? Europeans until today refuse to produce in war production mode and still do not fully replace what they have given away in ammunition stocks.

Russia will end up keeping big chunks of Ukrainian territory.

And then rearming for whatever the future holds.


Europe still has not really understood what the term "Zeitenwende" really means. Especially not the Germans, but most of the others have no understood it either.

[Jimbuna]

I'm not sure if the Poles will see this as a help or a hindrance

Germany issues fierce warning to Russia and Belarus it will defend Poland's border
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...d7d923780&ei=9

[Exocet25fr]

[Jimbuna]

Putin the war criminal is now spouting off about what he will do if Poland attacks Belarus. His mind must be running riot constantly looking for something to use for sabre rattling purposes.

The Polish response was first class "The pathetic bore from the Kremlin is once again repeating lies about Poland and also trying to falsify the truth about the war against Ukraine,"