Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yes to that ^. I said myself on the Scottish referendum that the Scots have any natural right life provides you with when you get born to be independent. I say the same abouit the Venetians who currently have or had a referendum. I would accept if the Bavarians in Germany say they want to leave.

But you have to be able to afford your independence. Financially. Economically. Strategically. You have no right to claim independence, and then demand others to pay for you, straighten your bills, maintain you. And if you think of it: if you live like that, you are not really independent anyway.

Same is true with Kosovo. I still shake my head in disbelief that they allowed this unfit-for-survival creation to be given birth to.


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On another sidenote, I think it is appropriate that one puts the Ukrainian crisis into its proper relation, even if it widens to Eastern Ukraine and Moldavia as well. It's still a picnic. In a time when German newspapers can seriously come out with headlines like "From the Ukraine to third world war" - and get away with that without any objections to such nonsense, I remind of hotspots in the world that are burning much hotter than the Ukraine, that all hold much more potential for hugh disaster, and many of them already kill people by the thousands and tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands. And some of them COULD lead to a global war indeed.

North Korea.

Afghanistan.

Sudan.

Kongo.

Iran.

Taiwan.

Israel.

Cashmere.

Northern Caucasus.

Thailand.

Senkaku Islands.

Mali.

Nigeria.

Myanmar.

Kongo.


The charme of the Ukraine crisis is, that it creates new headlines that media can report and start many talkshows about. The other conflicts listed already feel somewhat worn-out.

It must be early in the morning 4 U Herr Skybird!: you said Kongo twice and left out Transnistria, also known as Pridnestrovie, altogether(well u did say eastern Moldavia...but that's not politically Korrect!) The hammer and sickle are alive and well here BBY! Maybe I'll head to Tiraspol and drop a few T-rubles (their own currency) on some good Conac, actually a well regarded local product. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is trying to facilitate a negotiated settlement. Under OSCE auspices, on 8 May 1997, the Moldovan President Petru Lucinschi and the Transnistrian president Igor Smirnov, signed the "Memorandum on the principles of normalizations of the relations between the Republic of Moldova and Transnistria", also known as the "Primakov Memorandum", sustaining the establishment of legal and state relations, although the memorandum's provisions were interpreted differently by the governments of Moldova and Transnistria.
In November 2003, Dmitry Kozak, a counselor of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, proposed a memorandum on the creation of an asymmetric federal Moldovan state, with Moldova holding a majority and Transnistria being a minority part of the federation. Known as "the Kozak memorandum", it did not coincide with the Transnistrian position, which sought equal status between Transnistria and Moldova, but gave Transnistria veto powers over future constitutional changes; this encouraged Transnistria to sign it. Vladimir Voronin was initially supportive of the plan, but refused to sign it after internal opposition and international pressure from the OSCE and US, and after Russia had endorsed the Transnistrian demand to maintain a Russian military presence for the next 20 years as a guarantee for the intended federation.
Talks were started in 2006 to deal with the problems, but without results for many years. In February 2011 the so-called "5 + 2 Talks" (thus named because they were carried out by Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and OSCE, plus the US and the EU as external observers) were started again in Vienna.
Following the precedent set by the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation, in March 2014 Transnistria asked to join the Russian Federation. Political mittens are already well past dirty here!

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by MH

4) Putin is building Mosques...give me a break. with all the rest of this paragraph.

To be fair, maybe he personally isn't, but a lot of his buddies are.
See, for instance, Ramzan Kadyrov: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov
Great proponent of integration and peace. Thanks to him, Russia is currently the world's 2nd largest source of refugees after Syria (he has people running for their life from Chechnya, where evidence suggests he has death squads operating against any dissenters to his rule). But hey, he prides himself on having built some of the largest mosques in the world in the last few years, one of which he (semi-successfully) lobbied to be made into Russia's national symbol.

He, by the way, harbours some ambition and support for running for the next president of Russia. Wrap your mind around that

But yes.... this is one of those points of view....

Yup... but that's what passes for a "reasonable" point of view even among relatively civil Russians today, and even expats (Being a Russian expat), I find myself in the minority opposing this stuff.

[Aktungbby]

Yup... but that's what passes for a "reasonable" point of view even among relatively civil Russians today, and even expats (Being a Russian expat), I find myself in the minority opposing this stuff.

Just watch out for guys with pointy umbrellas suddenly hanging out at your favorite bistro Comrade! 'Vlad the Good'- 'Reuniter of the 'Motherland' seems to have a way of getting his point across...

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by CCIP

He, by the way, harbours some ambition and support for running for the next president of Russia. Wrap your mind around that

Nah, Putin will be "president" for life, that's how dictators operate.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

Nah, Putin will be "president" for life, that's how dictators operate.

Well, I think that's giving him a lot of credit - I think it's easy to see him as a dictator, but I would characterize him more as a figurehead (even if a fairly smart and influential one) in a technocratic junta. And those are far more replaceable than actual dictators, especially when there is technical (i.e. political) advantage to be gained from doing so. We saw that happen once already.

[Oberon]

At the end of the day it depends on how well he serves those who actually run the country, just like any other nation, if he annoys them then he's out.

Of course, who those people are depends on opinion and nation, military, businessmen, mafia, illuminati, aliens...

[CCIP]

In Russia, it's actually possible to talk about such a group - or more likely groups and the balance of power between them. In late 2011, the balance of power there drastically shifted in favour of the so-called "Siloviki" - those who staff the "power ministries", i.e. military, intelligence and state security establishments, most of them rooted in organizational networks and hierarchies that date back to Soviet times. They successfully outmaneuvered, sidelined, repressed or subjugated some of the other prominent powers in Russian politics over the last couple of years, and we see the result. The proper term for this is a junta, and that's exactly what Russia is run by today.

[Oberon]

I was going to refer to the siloviki, having heard of them from a colleague on another forum, but I wasn't sure what they have been up to over the past year or so.

[TarJak]

Running Russia clearly.

[Jimbuna]

Putin will be there until someone backed by more power than those who back him come along.

[Dread Knot]

Putin is riding high now, but the best customers for Russian oil and gas are now actively looking for other sources, as they started five years ago with the unpleasantness in South Ossetia. There is a sense of urgency for that now, which may lead to even less economic and political clout for Russia. Without oil and gas revenue, Russia could be as irrelevant as Ukraine economically.

Overall this move by Putin benefits no one directly, maybe a few nations indirectly. In the short period Putin may see a short rise in popularity due to nationalism, but Crimea is a white elephant for him now, dependent on Russia for it's electricity and potable water.

[TarJak]

Maybe not so high for too long. His deputy economy minister has warned they expecting to see about $70bn US of assets being moved out of Russian investments in the first 3 months of this year.

Not enough for a full blown recession but enough stagnation to cause some serious economic problems if the trend continues in the next 3 months.

[Dread Knot]

Originally Posted by TarJak

Maybe not so high for too long. His deputy economy minister has warned they expecting to see about $70bn US of assets being moved out of Russian investments in the first 3 months of this year.

Not enough for a full blown recession but enough stagnation to cause some serious economic problems if the trend continues in the next 3 months.

Russia is currently riding a bubble of oil revenue that is unsustainable in the long term. All they are achieving right now is persuading their best customers to look elsewhere for their energy. Even if China was willing to buy up all of Russia's production at premium prices that bubble will burst sooner rather than later. Venezuela has made the exact same choice as Putin did: ignore foreign (and domestic) investment and concentrate on exporting raw materials. Doesn't always work in the long term. Especially once the Cult of Personality running the show collapses when the personality departs the stage.

[Skybird]

Why shouldn't for Russia work what works for Europe and the US - the paper money? Consider that American state debt now is at 105% of the GDP, and in combination private and public debt together is at I think 350-400% of GDP - nevertheless the body still floats on the water, not because of a good economic situation, which actually is in an alarming condition, but because they still get pushed by the momentum of having printed money like crazy in the past years - with the according longterm consequences.

So will do Russia as well': if they need money, they print it.

In the long run, of course it leads to total collapse, no matter whether it is the US, Europe, or Russia. In the end, they all will collapse due to their paper money mountains. The order in which they do, is not really important.

China would be all to willing to buy off Russian gasl that the West no longer buys, but currently there is no sufficient infrastructure to transport Russian gas in according quantities to China. Like there is no sufficient infrastructure to transport US gas to Europe, there are not sufficient terminals to load gas tankers, and it is a far more expensive transportation method. Both scenarios would need several years preliminary lead time to become realities.

[CCIP]

Actually there is a recession in Russia and most people are concerned about it there. Skeptics have suggested that the whole game over Crimea is very much about diverting attention away from what was already a precarious economic situation for Russia to begin with.

Meanwhile in the Ukraine...
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26729273

Oleksandr Muzychko, better known as Sashko Bily, died in a shoot-out with police in a cafe in Rivne in western Ukraine, the interior ministry said.

He was a leader of Right Sector, a far-right group which was prominent in the recent anti-government protests.

That's a little concerning. Hopefully it doesn't destabilize what's already kind of a tricky situation there.