Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Terms of end of war will be determined by Kyiv, and not by other European capitals, - Stoltenberg

The fate of Ukraine or the conditions for the end of Russian aggression will not be decided in any of the European capitals, since such conditions must be determined by Ukraine itself, based on its own achievements on the battlefield and on the assistance of the Alliance.

"Ukraine must decide what are the acceptable conditions for resolving this conflict. We will not sit in Brussels or in other European capitals and decide what is acceptable for them. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine... What we will do is to bring to the maximum probability of reaching such a solution that will be acceptable to the Ukrainians at the negotiating table. The way we will do this is to strengthen their strength on the battlefield," Stoltenberg emphasized.

He noted that NATO is not a party to this conflict, but confirms again and again that the Allies support Ukraine's right to self-defense. Ukraine defends itself against an aggressive war, and this right is provided by the UN Charter.

Stoltenberg reminded that it is Ukraine and Ukrainians who are paying the highest price in this fight against external aggression, including human losses and the destruction caused. Therefore, it is Ukraine that will determine the conditions that are acceptable to Ukrainians in ending this conflict.

"We must remember what all this is. It is aggression, when Russia, President Putin invaded another country. With such actions, they violated international law. Despite the fact that they (Russia. - Ed.) lost certain captured territories during of the past months and weeks, they still control a large part of Ukraine. Ukraine has said that it is ready to negotiate, but we also know that the only way to achieve an acceptable result is their (Ukrainians') strength on the battlefield," the NATO Secretary General emphasized.

Unfortunately, Russia has stated that it is under attack by the forces of NATO. If this were true, Russia would have been beaten down in the early months of this war. Russia also feels the U.S and NATO are party to this conflict / war for it's supply of weapons to the Ukraine. I wonder if Russia truly believes this or are these statements just more examples of Russian propaganda.

If this is the logic Russia chooses to use, then China, Iran and North Korea are party to this conflict as well. Russia can't have it both ways. Self determination, liberty and freedom are the cornerstones of any Democracy. It is for these ideals that the Ukrainians have lived, fought, died and yearn for.

A Subsim member had suggested that Russia be removed as a permanent member of the U.N Security Council. I agree with this assessment. I believe the first step is labeling Russia a terrorist state. To that end, I believe that China should be considered as such as well.

In the end, I think the Ukraine will win it's freedom and will have earned it. Unfortunately, if Russia does lose and I believe they will, Russia will pursue a " scorched Earth " policy on leaving the Ukraine. The rebuilding process will take years. For the lives lost, they can never be recovered. That's the real tragedy.

[Jimbuna]

[Rockstar]

As Ukraine Retakes Kherson, U.S. Looks to Diplomacy Before Winter Slows Momentum
American arms are flowing, but officials in Washington question how much territory either side can win

https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-ukra...um-11668345883

Senior U.S. officials have begun nudging Kyiv to start thinking about peace talks in the event winter stalls its momentum, following Ukraine’s recapture of Kherson in one of its most stunning triumphs of the war.

The imminent onset of winter—coupled with fears of inflation spurred by mounting energy and food prices, the billions of dollars of weaponry already pumped into Ukraine, and the tens of thousands of casualties on both sides—has prompted talk in Washington of a potential inflection point in the war, now in its ninth month.

Ukrainian troops were cheered by residents of Kherson as they entered the strategic city after Moscow withdrew its forces. WSJ looks at how Russia went from capturing to losing the regional capital, in one of its largest symbolic defeats in the war. Illustration: Adele Morgan
The U.S. and its allies are pledging to continue supporting Ukraine, but top officials in Washington are beginning to wonder aloud how much more territory can be won by either side, and at what cost. Some European officials, meanwhile, are more bullish on Ukraine’s chances.

“There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory, in the true sense of the word, is maybe not achievable through military means, so therefore you need to turn to other means,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the top U.S. military officer, told the Economic Club of New York on Wednesday. “There’s also an opportunity here, a window of opportunity, for negotiation.”

The prospect that Ukraine won’t make major battlefield gains in the weeks ahead has led the U.S. and some European officials to ask when public pressure will emerge to demand a settlement.

“We are saying to the Ukrainians that it is up to them to decide when to do it,” said a Western European official, referring to the potential for talks. “But it might be a good idea to do it sooner.”

U.S. officials, for their part, don’t think now is the right time, but more of them believe the coming weeks and months provide an opportunity to talk about talks.

The U.S. and some of its allies are concerned that their stockpiles of weaponry, including some ammunition, are being depleted at an unsustainable rate. U.S. military support for Ukraine this year, now nearing $19 billion, has far outstripped European assistance.

“We are seeing real, practical problems of making military progress, we are seeing shortages of munitions,” said another Western official.

The same day that Gen. Milley spoke of an opportunity for talks, President Biden too suggested the time could soon be right.

“It remains to be seen whether or not there’ll be a judgment made as to whether or not Ukraine is prepared to compromise with Russia,” Mr. Biden said at the White House. He added: “They’re going to both lick their wounds, decide…what they’re going to do over the winter, and decide whether or not they’re going to compromise.”

Washington has signaled to Ukraine that at a minimum Kyiv needs to appear open to a negotiated solution. Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, conveyed that message to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his lieutenants in Kyiv on Nov. 4, suggesting that Kyiv would gain leverage by showing openness to negotiations, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Two European diplomats briefed on the discussions said Mr. Sullivan recommended that Mr. Zelensky’s team start thinking about its realistic demands and priorities for negotiations, including a reconsideration of its stated aim for Ukraine to regain Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

Administration officials, including Mr. Sullivan, continue to state in public that Washington won’t press Kyiv on a diplomatic course, a practice that is perplexing the U.S.’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies. State Department officials briefed some European partners in Washington last week to allay concerns about a shift in approach, according to two senior European officials.

“It is our job to put them in the best position on the battlefield so that when and if there is an opportunity for diplomacy, they’re in the best position at the bargaining table,” Mr. Sullivan said Thursday. “The United States is not pressuring Ukraine. We’re not insisting on things with Ukraine.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meanwhile said some sanctions on Russia could remain in place even after any eventual peace agreement with Ukraine, raising the prospect of a long-term U.S. effort to squeeze Russia’s economy. Ms. Yellen said in an interview in Indonesia, where she is attending a gathering of G-20 leaders, that any eventual peace agreement would involve a review of the penalties the U.S. and its allies have imposed on Russia’s economy.

“We would probably feel, given what’s happened, that probably some sanctions should stay in place,” she said.

On Friday, Ukraine’s forces swept into the southern city of Kherson after Russian troops completed their withdrawal from the regional capital, in one of the largest strategic and symbolic defeats for the Kremlin since launching its invasion. Over the weekend, Ukrainian authorities set about restoring essential services after blaming Russian forces for sabotaging power grid facilities and stripping cell towers and other infrastructure as they departed. Roman Holovnya, an adviser to Kherson’s mayor, told Ukrainian television that there is a critical lack of water in the city, as aid convoys set out from other parts of Ukraine.

The Ukrainian advance is the second sudden shift in the war in less than three months. Ukraine’s forces recaptured a swath of territory in the northeastern part of the country in September. The recent advance likely ends Russia’s prospects of advancing toward Odessa, Ukraine’s largest coastal city and port.

With Ukrainian troops winning on the ground, Mr. Zelensky and his top aides have warned publicly that pursuing peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin now would amount to a needless surrender. Some of the U.S.’s European allies have said Ukraine’s advances leave Kyiv with little reason to submit to Mr. Putin’s demands.

They believe Ukraine can retake more territory if Western arms keep flowing, strengthening its position in eventual negotiations. Washington’s new pledge of another $400 million in security assistance reinforced the Europeans’ confidence in U.S. support for Ukraine’s military.

“We as the West, we must be extremely careful not to press Ukraine on anything because we know that this war was started by Russia and this war can be ended in a minute if Russia simply decides to end it,” said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks.

Officials in some European countries, particularly in the east and north, have said that publicly pressing for talks could hurt Ukraine’s efforts and play to Russia’s aims of dividing the alliance.

“We need to talk about the cost of peace,” one northern European official said. If the war ends now, “The message the Ukrainians would get is that their fight was meaningless. The message Russia would get is that this is time to refit and to rebuild economically. No one believes [Russia] will stop until they achieve their strategic objective.”

Mr. Putin has said that Russia is open to peace talks and argued that if Washington ordered Mr. Zelensky to sit down for negotiations, Kyiv would do so. With the latest setbacks in the battlefield, Western officials have said the Kremlin appears to have backed away from its previous preconditions for talks, such as accepting Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

Yet European and U.S. officials have said they see little sign that the Kremlin is interested in serious talks. At a Group of Seven meeting earlier this month, foreign ministers agreed that it was up to Ukraine to decide when the military and political conditions were right to seek a cease-fire and pursue negotiations, said participants at the meeting. The ministers said in a statement afterward that the Kremlin’s call for peace talks wasn’t credible as Mr. Putin continues to escalate the war.

On Monday, Mr. Zelensky said Ukrainian conditions for talks included returning Ukrainian control over its territories, compensating Kyiv for Moscow’s invasion and bringing to justice perpetrators of war crimes.

Critical to the differences between allies over how urgently diplomacy should be pursued are varying assessments of the prospect of Ukraine gaining more ground in the winter months ahead.

Some NATO allies believe that Ukraine will struggle to make major breakthroughs, as it attacks areas that are more urbanized and closer to Russia, and where Russian forces have been present longer and have had time to fortify their defenses. Meanwhile, Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in recent weeks, imposing blackouts and power and water shortages on millions of Ukrainians.

Others, more confident of Ukraine’s chances, don’t believe the fighting will stall. The country’s growing arsenal of air defense systems has become more efficient at intercepting missiles and drones.

A Western diplomat said there was concern among some European partners that Washington was coaxing Ukraine toward talks before its troops could make further gains.

—Max Colchester in London and Andrew Duehren in Nusa Dua, Indonesia, contributed to this article.

Write to Gordon Lubold at gordon.lubold@wsj.com, Nancy A. Youssef at nancy.youssef@wsj.com, Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and Drew Hinshaw at drew.hinshaw@wsj.com

[Jimbuna]

European Union has officially launched training mission for 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers

The European Union has officially launched a training mission for Ukrainian fighters. As part of the mission, up to 15,000 military personnel will be trained.

This was reported by Censor.NET with reference to the Twitter of the Presidency of the Czech Republic in the Council of the European Union.

"The European Council launched the EU military assistance mission EUMAM to support Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia and to train up to 15,000 members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces," it said.

It is noted that the decision enters into force from the time of publication in the official journal of the EU. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380471

Russia wants to take break to continue war with new strength. Ukraine will not make concessions regarding Crimea, - Kuleba on alleged readiness of Russian Federation for negotiations

Kyiv does not even theoretically consider any concessions regarding the Crimea issue.

The head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, wrote about this on Facebook, Censor.NET informs.

"I will dot the "ands" regarding media and sometimes behind-the-scenes conversations about pressure on Ukraine regarding negotiations, how far Ukraine can go in liberating its territories and what will happen next, etc.:

1. Listen to President Zelensky: Russia must withdraw its occupation troops from the territory of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders;

2. Ukraine does not give up diplomacy. But the Kremlin's current statements about its alleged readiness for negotiations are just a smokescreen. Russia is playing constructive, but in fact wants to take a break to recover and later continue the war with new strength. We will not go for it and urge our partners not to play along with Moscow;

3. Kyiv does not even theoretically consider any concessions regarding the Crimea issue. Neither for us nor for international law, there is no difference between Kherson and Sevastopol. All this - Ukraine;

4. Talks that Ukraine will tolerate or give in to any provocations if they are against our interests. In general, I advise everyone to leave this prehistoric perception of Ukraine as someone who is pressured and forced. Today, Ukraine is pressing and forcing. We are creating a new history together with those in the world who stand side by side with us.

5. As for those in the world who talk behind the scenes about not believing in the victory of Ukraine and express endless doubts, today I spoke at the EU Council of Ministers and told a story," Kuleba writes.

According to him, it is impossible to win if you do not believe.

"I thank everyone who believes in the victory of Ukraine. You will not regret taking such a position. If we remain united and principled in these difficult times, we will also celebrate the restoration of peace and security in Europe. And the more support, the more weapons we will receive, the sooner this day will come," added Kuleba. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380474

[Jimbuna]

USA will not participate in negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine, - Biden

US President Joe Biden emphasized that the United States will not be involved in any peace talks in Ukraine without Ukraine.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

The American leader said that the liberation of Kherson is an important victory for Ukraine.

"And I can only applaud the bravery, determination and capabilities of the Ukrainian people, the Ukrainian military. They are simply amazing! I think it's hard to say now what exactly that means. But I was very clear - we will continue to provide opportunities for Ukraine, the Ukrainian people to defend ourselves. And we have no intention of participating in any negotiations. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. This is a decision that Ukraine should make," the US president said.

At the same time, Biden suggested that in the near future "we will see things slow down through the winter months in terms of the ability to easily move around the country."

"I think it remains to be seen what the outcome will be, except that I am sure that Russia will not occupy Ukraine as they originally planned," he emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380479

Canada will provide another $400 million in military aid to Ukraine

Canada announced the allocation of a new package of military aid to Ukraine worth 500 million Canadian dollars (about 400 million US dollars).

This was announced in the office of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Censor.NET reports with reference to Ukrinform.

"Canada will provide Ukraine with an additional $500 million in military aid to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defending the country from Russia's brutal and unjustified invasion," the message reads.

The office of the head of the Canadian government notes that these funds will be used for the purchase of military, intelligence and communication equipment, as well as fuel and medicine.

"While Russia continues its brutal and unjustified invasion of Ukraine, Canada will stand side by side with the Ukrainian people and allies in defense of our shared values ​​of peace, democracy and human rights," Trudeau stressed. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380485

EU has strengthened sanctions against Iran

The EU Council introduced new sanctions against Iran due to human rights violations.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the website of the European Council.

"The EU Council today added 29 individuals and three institutions to the list of entities subject to restrictive measures in the context of existing sanctions against Iran for human rights violations. This is done in view of their role in the Death of Masha Amini and the violence in relation to the recent demonstrations in Iran," the report said.

The list of restrictions includes law enforcement officials who were involved in the arbitrary arrest of Masha Amini, local law enforcement officials, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and members of the military leadership that oversaw the brutal crackdown on peaceful protests in Iran.

Sanctions have also been introduced against the heads of Iran's state television, which disseminated the "confessions" of protest participants, as well as the head of Iran's so-called cyber police, who was involved in arbitrary arrests of people for criticizing the Iranian regime in online media.

Sanctions include the freezing of financial assets and a ban on travel to the EU. EU citizens and companies are prohibited from providing any financial resources to individuals and institutions included in the sanctioned list. The sanctions regime also prohibits the export to Iran of any equipment that could be used for internal repression or control of telecommunications space. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3380506

[Dargo]

A Strategic Strip Of Sand. Rumors Of Ukrainian Raids. As Russian Forces Retreat, Keep An Eye On The Kinburn Spit.
The Kinburn Spit is a narrow finger of sand and scrub, barely three miles long, that juts from the wider Kinburn Peninsula into the Black Sea at the mouth of the Dnipro River south of Kherson. It and the adjacent peninsula also are the last parts of Ukraine’s Mykolaiv Oblast that remain under Russian occupation.

Don’t expect that to last. The Kremlin on Wednesday ordered its battered forces on the right bank of the Dnipro to retreat to the river’s opposite bank.

The order came six months after Ukrainian brigades, re-armed with European howitzers and American rocket-launchers, began bombarding Russian supply lines in the south—and two months after those same brigades launched a counteroffensive aimed at liberating Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblasts.

The Ukrainians have the Kinburn Spit in their sights. They’ve got the troops, the equipment … and a plan.

Russian troops seized the Kinburn Spit in mid-June as Russian advances in the south—having already overwhelmed Kherson city—ran into stiff resistance a few miles south of Mykolaiv city. Capturing the spit would turn out to be one of the Russian army’s last victories in the south. The four-month Ukrainian counterlogistics campaign that preceded Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive already was underway.

Kinburn matters. Russian control of the sandy strip “will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast,” the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. explained in June. For the Ukrainians, Kinburn is a back door—a way to get forces onto the left bank of the Dnipro without crossing the river, likely while under fire. As far back as April, U.K. intelligence agents were advising their government to support Ukrainian forces in any future attempt to “conduct beach reconnaissance” on the Kinburn Spit. The recon could “Identify good landing locations for a larger assault force for a future counterattack,” the agents explained in a presentation that later leaked to the press.

It’s possible Ukrainian special operations forces riding in rigid-hull inflatable boats began reconnoitering the spit as early as September. In October, video circulated online reportedly depicting the Ukrainian navy’s last remaining big ship, the 240-foot amphibious vessel Yuri Olefirenko, apparently firing rockets at Russian forces on or near the spit.

The Ukrainian military’s southern command on Saturday announced its intention to liberate Kinburn. Within a day, there were videos online possibly depicting Ukrainian commandos riding toward the spit in their small boats.

If and when the Ukrainians land in force on Kinburn, the odds should favor them. “With the recent advances in Kherson, this is well within massed artillery range,” explained Mike Martin, a fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College in London. And to be clear, he means Ukrainian artillery.

“The Russians are finding it very hard to hold” in Kherson and Mykolaiv, Martin added. The Kilburn Spit could be the next piece of Ukraine they give up. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=582cc973304d

[Catfish]

"There was a Moscow convict by the name of Evgeny Nuzhin. He was in jail for a murder. He had served 24 years of what was apparently a 28 year sentence when he was recruited by Wagner to go to Ukraine.

He was detailed to collect bodies- his group was sent to the front lines and hid in trenches by day and crawled out to collect bodies by night. The first day there were 16 of them. The second day there were 9. He decided to bug out.

He surrendered, and he was interviewed and a video was posted. He wanted to join the Moscow free legion in the AFU, but the AFU didn't want him and exchanged him back to Moscow .

The Muscovites handed him back to Wagner. A few days ago they posted a video of them killing him by bashing his head in with a sledgehammer.

I will not post the link

[Catfish]

The mayor of Oleshky hinted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine returned Oleshky under the control of Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The information is preliminary, but if it is true, it means that the Armed Forces have already crossed the Dnipro.

[Skybird]

I only wait for Zelensky announcing that the Ukraine has launched its offensive to take Teheran.

[Dargo]

Chatter about Ukrainian amphibious landings in Kinburn Peninsula, taking the town of Herois'ke, artillery strike on Russian base in Hornostaivka, rumors of Ukrainian troops in Oleshky, explosions reported in Hola Prystan'... No operational pause after Kherson, it seems. https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/s...49051101143043


Herois'ke

Oleshky

Hornostaivka

Hola Prystan

"There is no operational pause we don't give them any rest" https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...59590728876032

[mapuc]

"There is no operational pause we don't give them any rest"

Which is the correct way to go on offensive...However the speed of such an offensive should not be faster than their logistic can keep up or they will have same situation as they had around Kharkiv-Here the speed of the offensive was so high that the UA had to hit the brake because their logistic was far behind-Which gave Russia time to reorganise their defence.

Which is why I see Russia take and lose ground in the Donetsk area.

Markus

[Dargo]

Russians plan to “evacuate” entire civilian population of three settlements of Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast – General Staff of Ukraine forces
The Russian occupiers plan to “evacuate” the entire civilian population from the settlements of Kreminna, Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne in Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast deep into the temporarily occupied territories due to the humanitarian situation in the Oblast, General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.

The General Staff also reports that in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast, the Russian occupation authorities are expanding the coverage area of ​​propaganda sources. So, according to available information, the occupiers are launching the “Mariupol-24” TV channel. Round-the-clock broadcasting is planned to be introduced within a month. https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/11/...rces/?swcfpc=1

Next retreat?

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

"There is no operational pause we don't give them any rest"

Which is the correct way to go on offensive...However the speed of such an offensive should not be faster than their logistic can keep up or they will have same situation as they had around Kharkiv-Here the speed of the offensive was so high that the UA had to hit the brake because their logistic was far behind-Which gave Russia time to reorganise their defence.

Which is why I see Russia take and lose ground in the Donetsk area.

Markus

Ukraine will push forward till they hit the Russian defense line that's hold them, but every inch of ground taken means more HIMAR range

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Ukraine will push forward till they hit the Russian defense line that's hold them, but every inch of ground taken means more HIMAR range

Too bad. After all it is a war between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia as the aggressor. I think Ukraine shows a lot of reluctance not bombing the Red Place in Moscow.
And they could, with a bit of help.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Too bad. After all it is a war between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia as the aggressor. I think Ukraine shows a lot of reluctance not bombing the Red Place in Moscow.
And they could, with a bit of help.

Read somewhere in which Ukraine asked for permission from was it USA or NATO to bomb military installation and airfield near Belgorod. This was their wish because Russia was bombing Kharkiv from Russian soil.

Permission was given.

Can have remembered wrong

Markus